my thought is not because of the size of bursa , is just the past rack record is preventing them from coming back to Bursa..someone is stopping them from coming back due to the sour experience
Hi SamT, thank you for your sharing. What about MPCORP-WB? Any comments on this warrant? The warrant price was closed at 0.09 on date of announcement. And the price was dropping from averaging 0.12 prior Proposal Announcement.
Whereas the Mother share was closed at 0.485 and it seems it is supported at about this range. I agree with you that mother share will stay above 0.50. Well, TPY has bought about 15M (5%) of mother share on 18-July at 0.55.
Appreciate if you could comment on current Warrant, MPCOPP-WB.
I ran through the history of the 4 companies ( the past events as per reported in Bursa Malaysia ) . My observation is that he is more on business than goreng the stock as there are solid activities on going to boost the value of the company. The goreng kaki will always accumulate the stocks through various undisclosed parties , then performing market speculation on something coming for a stock , pushing the stock price up ,attract attention of the investors to chase behind the stock and then sold all their holding and let the stock taking a free fall. The best example is when one of the stock about 2 years ago suddenly go all the way up from RM0.20 to RM1.00 with speculation that the 2nd generation of powerful politician will join the company , more investors go in to chase behind the stock and if I'm not mistaken , it go all the way to above RM2. By the end , when the speculation burst , the stock price went down to drain. If a person want to goreng MPCORP , he will accumulate enough stock before the announcement and paint a very positive sign to MPCORP such as a MOA of injecting how much cash to the company through private placement at high stock price ( example : RM1 per placement share ) , the stock price will jump with limit up a day or 2 to above RM1 , then , he can immediately sold all the stock accumulated and after weeks , just due to unforseen circumstances , the MOA did not proceed as per plan and both parties mutually agree to terminate the MOA. If he want to goreng the share , this is really a long way to go...I think he is more like another ' small cap businessman' , this person will take over the 60 to 70% of the company, proceed with right issue + free warrants to turn the company into net cash position and then proceed with business activities to boost the value of the company and cash out by then with a target of 3 to 4X return in 4 years time. Recently he just completed the deal started from 2010 with almost 400% growth in his investment. This person with RM300M cash in hand now , what will be his next move ??
I think either ways is OK as long as it make money. I always avoid the 1st one as due to information assymetry , the risk is high as it come and go very fast . The 2nd method is quite OK as it take longer time and can be trace as long as we pay attention to the announcement.
samt. ...u said there will be a joint venture between mpcorp n protasco. is this raliable source ?o. or just your imagination. .....thanks if u can answer. investment dont like uncertainty. i m finding more sources to achieve more confident in investing......
Regarding property at Pasir Gudang , the latest property launched was from Mah Sing , 500 units of double storey terrace at a quite remote area from Pasir Gudang and infrastructure upgrading is under planning stage , price at not more than RM400K ( which should means close to RM400K). I think East IDR is picking up in speed by looking at reputable property developers such as Ecoworld ( Kota Masai ) and Mah Sing is owning more than 1000 acres of land there. When more information reveal about the 3rd link , a highway connecting Pasir Ris in Singapore either to Pasir Gudang ( lower construction cost as only 2km in length ) or Pengerang ( higher construction cost as 20km in length ) and then all the way to the border of Kelantan / Thailand will boost the property demands at East IDR as it will be more strategic location as closer to Changi Airport. We should expect East IDR soon will close the gap with Nusanjaya.
On MPCORP-WB , is quite tricky. Refer to the clause 7.5 of the proposal , it should interpret in this way - the management will decide on either to reduce the exercise price or adjust the qty to be announced during the entitlement date and take effect the next market day. This actually put in some uncertainty to the WB with potential high gain or losing everything.
Worst case scenario - the proposal drag beyond 21st April 2015 , WB expire out of money , all burn.
If the proposal get approved and entitlement date before 21st April 2015 , this scenario might happen ( below should represent the best case scenario )
The management decided to adjust the exercise price to RM0.50 per share for WB and any conversion before a determine date will entitle to the RIGHT + New warrant.
Most of the time , after approval received and entitlement date is determined , some short term event driven investors will come in to buy the stock to enjoy the RIght and Free warrant and will disposed the stock on ex-date to gain from the different in investment value ( especially from the new 10 years warrant with good time value ). The stock price will most likely jump after entitlement date towards ex-date.
Assuming the stock price at RM0.70 after entitlement date
WB conversion price at RM0.50 , the value for WB itself will be RM0.20
As 1 WB entitle to 0.8 right and 0.4 free warrant.
The gain from subscribing the right will be 0.8 * 0.2 = 0.16.
The gain from new warrant will be 0.4 * 0.30 ( the time value of the warrant although out of money ) = 0.12
Therefore , the opportunity for the gain will be RM0.20 + RM0.16 + RM0.12 = RM0.48 , which equal to almost 500% jump from current price of RM0.09.
Even the stock price stay at RM0.50 , for every 1000 shares of warrant B ( assume at RM0.09 )
WB conversion to 1 share = RM0.50 + RM0.09 = RM590 for 1000 shares
purchase of right share = RM0.50 * 800 = RM400
Total investment = RM990
Stock + warrant value ( assume after ex-date at RM0.50 per share ) = RM900 + 400*0.25 = RM1000
Return will be RM10 ( enough for one cup of coffee at Starbuck )...
The RM0.50 most likely will represent the lower limit , therefore , an investors will look at this as a very low downside high upside type of investment...
I'm expecting the WB price will be highly fluctuate from now until date of approval due to the reason above. Pessimistic investors will sell when get closer to 21st April 2015 while opportunists will accumulate to take advantage of the huge gain.
I hold slightly above 100,000 shares of WB , will keep until entitlement date. wort case , burn..best case , earn 300%...
The sell down last week on WB with the reason below:
1. Getting closer to 21st April 2015 , only 9 more months to go by coming 21st July 2014..what is the possibility of the stocks go beyond RM1 ??? Better sell lost for pessimistic investors
2. No action yet from management ...investors worry especially looking at track record , confident level is low
3. Most of the time , more than 500K in queue to sell ( up to 5 ticks ) while only less than 10K in queue to buy ( on one of the day , only 6.6K queue to buy at 0.09 )..this put more pressure to pessimistic investor..
p/s : my friend SMS last Friday , he bought 250K of WB on Friday at average 0.0925 before the announcement. Seem like he pick up most of the WB transacted in the last 2 days of transaction.
My view is that management will be more than happy if the WB get converted as it will bring in RM149.5M and the company will be totally debt free and with net cash position..stock price will boost after completion of the proposal...
RM57.5M from WB conversion RM46.0M from Right subscription RM23M from ICULS A RM23M from ICULS B
hi fightingfish88 , I'm using Mosaic theory to analyze the possible outcome and the probability of success and factor it into the TP. I don't have reliable source of information and I never depends on reliable source or insider information as is very simple , if the information come to you , it come to everyone and it has no value just to follow the information bulat bulat as might fall into the trap of the speculator. The facts is based on the information gather. TPY invest into MPCORP , he will unlock the most value from his investment..as a shareholder of MPCORP and Protasco , if both companies performing , he will gain from both. Therefore , a JV will boost the value of both companies and he will be the winner. Stock investment is about predicting the future..the more information digest and put it into a picture , the higher chances of gain..
In my life , I saw a lot of people following reliable source of information and majority with their investment go to drain..therefore , I always skeptical about reliable source but I will still accept the information to include in the analysis ..
On manipulation , I think it will not be a wise idea of opening few accounts under the person name and performing transaction as under SEC rules , if same person account selling to each other or with suspect of doing so , will consider as manipulation and breaching of rules. Most manipulator will have one or even no account..they will use accounts of various person as a group to transact between them without trace . Even some might ' rent ' account of stranger to do so ..as long as to minimize the link between the transaction parties...
Yes , I'm expecting the stock price to go up , especially when the proposal getting close to approval ( will proceed with less and less uncertainty ) as the company after the proposal will be far better than before.. Stock market is an area where primary driven by emotion , so , some investors might sell due to the bad experience from previous right issue ( March 2010 ) and didn't want to put in more $$ due to skeptical...but I believe their stock will easily pick up by others.. I believe the stock will stay above RM0.55...
Hi SamT, mind explain in more details for the below? Assuming the stock price at RM0.70 after entitlement date WB conversion price at RM0.50 , the value for WB itself will be RM0.20 As 1 WB entitle to 0.8 right and 0.4 free warrant.
The gain from subscribing the right will be 0.8 * 0.2 = 0.16. 0.8= Right? 0.2= WB, Warrant Value? The logic behind the calculation? The gain from new warrant will be 0.4 * 0.30 ( the time value of the warrant although out of money ) = 0.12 0.4= Free Warrant? 0.3= the time value of the warrant although out of money, what does it mean? It is the value of WB or WC at entitlement date?
Therefore , the opportunity for the gain will be RM0.20 + RM0.16 + RM0.12 = RM0.48 , which equal to almost 500% jump from current price of RM0.09. If it is so the value of WB, then Mother share should valued near to RM1.00 at entitlement date?
Even the stock price stay at RM0.50 , for every 1000 shares of warrant B ( assume at RM0.09 ) WB conversion to 1 share = RM0.50 + RM0.09 = RM590 for 1000 shares purchase of right share = RM0.50 * 800 = RM400 Total investment = RM990
Stock + warrant value ( assume after ex-date at RM0.50 per share ) = RM900 + 400*0.25 = RM1000 Return will be RM10 ( enough for one cup of coffee at Starbuck )...
After reading many postings here over last 12 hours, I find 2 persons (Sam T and CalvinTaneng) are very kind and generous, as they researched and shared, and they did not bad-mouth others even they were being attacked and criticized, here i like to say thank you very much to two of you, hopefully one day i can meet you personally.能在此论坛和两位前辈共论MPC,真是人生一大福气,我在此说声谢谢
Thanks for the compliment . I was doing sharing with a group of friends since years ago and we are doing quite well in our investment. My believe is that the opportunity to make $$ in the stock market belongs to everyone , when I shared , I didn't make less s there are ample of opportunity to make money in the stock market. I'm happy to see my friend successful financially. Our small group of investors with about 5,000,000 shares of MPCORP will meet up on coming Saturday to discuss our strategy to decide either we should divert RM8,000,000 from other stocks to invest in MPCORP ( we will go for option 1 or 2 , or a combination of both ) . I already reserve a quite corner at a fine dining restaurant , enjoying our discussion while wine and dine. After we realize some profit from MPCORP , we plan to celebrate at Waku Chin at Marina Sands. So far , I yet to dine at Waku Chin but in Kudeta ( can't remember the spelling ) before.
Hi kokwai9319 , yes , the 400 free warrant is attached to the right issue . I'm assuming the price at RM0.25 based on the facts that although the stock is out of money ( the stock price is lower than conversion price ) , the 10 years time value is very valuable , therefore , investors will be willing to pay RM0.25 for the warrant ( WC ) even is out of money. I yet to use Black Scholes model to calculate the warrant price.
Apologize for the typo error . Our group holding of about 5,000,000 shares will required funding of RM4,000,000 ( RM2,000,000 for 4,000,000 right shares , RM1,000,000 for 10,000,000 ICULS A and RM1,000,000 for 10,000,000 ICULS B )
Good luck to everyone...hope everyone making good $$ to spend during 2015 New Year and Lunar New Year..
Wah buy this share need additional money to subscribe right issue? If no money to subscribe right issue how? If buy only mother share not subscribe right issue what will I lose?
1) The existing substantial shareholder Bill Chng has disposed a 5.2% stake to TPY on July 18, 2014 before the announcement of the exercise
2) Part of the funds to be raised, $36.7m, will be used to repay Bill Chng for the advances he had given to MPC over the last 2 years, at a cut-throat interest rate of 13% pa.
3) Bill Chng through Top Lander Offshore Inc has renounced its right to subscribe for the new shares
4) uncertainty that the proposal may not be approved by the SC
Market says thumbs down to the multiple fundraising proposals this morning. Bill Ch'ng and TPY as a dynamic team looking out for all shareholders interest stretches investors credibility somewhat. Question is, can you trust them with more of your hard earned money? Can they deliver results within a reasonable time frame?
TPY just a shareholder and is not in management nor major controling shareholder. so no clear whiteknight good news. market skeptical if old management still torture company the old style.
A company stays penny must have its reasons,most important is the management.If it keep on asking money from the shareholders,you will know what happen.Good companies usually will distribute their earnings by giving dividend to their shareholders.
The Latest Corporate Exercise Is A Stop Gap Measure. It doesn't matter who is the White Knight.
MP Corp's Money Powered Train In Now Near a River or Chasm. This Stop Gap Measure Will Help MP Corp To Cross It Safely Over The Other Side Of GOLD HILL!
As Such I think It Is A Step Towards SOLUTION!
Everyday Is Day Nearer And Nearer To The Completion of 6 Lanes Wide Gateway Into NUSA DAMAI.
THE UNLOCKING OF MP CORP'S GOLD MINES IS ON SCHEDULE. SO SIT TIGHT!
It Was Said That During The Stock Market Crash of OCTOBER 29 1929 DURING THE GREAT DEPRESSION. THERE WAS TOTAL & UTTER CONFUSION. THERE WERE SELLERS WITHOUT MUCH BUYERS. SO SHARES WERE IN TOTAL COLLAPSE.
I Think One Young Man Keyed in 10 cents for A Blue Chip at Over $10.00
IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE CARNAGE & DESTRUCTION HE FOUND OUT TO HIS GLAD SURPRISE THAT HE ACTUALLY GOT A BLUE CHIP OVER $10.00 for ONLY 10 CENTS!
Since TPY is going to pump in about Rm 70 million, you think he will let Bill Ch'ng or his young son and wife to continue their out-dated management way of doing things ? study more on TPY first, find out who is he ? before you further make all the silly comments ,stkoay 21/07/2014 13:55
@lee9fold.Yeap. A joker. A joker with many many years of investment exposure. A joker who made his many millions in the share market. Don't believe? We can show who has got more credit limit by making Q to buy during this pre-opening period. IF you have more credit limit than I do, then I will call myself a JOKER.
The exercise is positive in the long term as new money are brought in to salvage. The issue now is the timing. As the exercise will need at least 8-10 months to be fully completed (barring any hiccups). Do you want to hold the "uncertainty" for this 8-10 months?
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
saltedfish
3,282 posts
Posted by saltedfish > 2014-07-20 01:29 | Report Abuse
It is not difficult to return to Bursa, it is Bursa too small for them liao