Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-01 14:29 | Report Abuse

YTLP need not build its tower in every school, so long these school are close to each other and fall within 4 km radius. It get free site to build tower, with no rental and electricity fee.

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-01 15:55 | Report Abuse

YTLP need to breaking RM 1.68 again to resume uptrend, with next resistance level at 1.85

Posted by babu > 2013-08-01 18:04 | Report Abuse

hng33, what about continuation of downtrend ? where is next support level at ?

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-01 23:12 | Report Abuse

Many investor have perceived YTLP is debt burden after it incur huge capex to develop Wimax and yet is not delivering earning. Well, no doubt YTLP total debt is increase from 20,553m to 23,468m, or 14% (+ RM 2,915m); but bear in mind, YTLP net cash increase also 6,638m to 10,184m, or 53.4% (+ 3,546m); resulting in actual net increase in cash of RM631m despite being developing Wimax from scratch.

Lets compared current and 3 year ago YTL balance sheet to reexamine its financial strength after it start venture into Wimax.

2010 (2013)

Non current assets: 23,407 (25,606)
Current asset: 9,473 (13,769)
Cash: 6,638 (10,925)
Total asset : 32,880 (39,375)
Total equity: 6,956 (10,184)

Non current liab: 21,181 (23,940)
Current liab: 4,742 (5,249
LT Borrowing+ bond: 18,233 (20,908)
Current borrowing: 2,32 (2,56)
Total Liab: 25,923 (29,190)

Net Asset per share: 1.00 (1.36)

Financial ratio:

1. Net Gearing : 2.95 (2.30)
2. Current ratio: 1.998 (2.62)
3. Cash ratio: 1.40 (2.08)
4. Debt ratio: 0.788 (0.741)
5. Debt/equity ratio: 3.726 (2.866)

Valuation

1. Share price/book: 2.27 (1.205)
2. PE: 12.1x (10.9x)
3. DY: 13.13sen (nil)
4. Yield : 5.8% (nil)

(Remark: YTLP share price on 2 Aug 2010 was RM 2.27; annualized EPS 18.66sen vs. current share price RM 1.64; annualized EPS=15sen)

Posted by babu > 2013-08-02 12:41 | Report Abuse

@hng33 : thanks for the tabulation; the financial ratios looks scary ! this is more of a high debt company, if interest rates were to rise in near future I wonder how this would affect YTLP ?

Posted by miketyu > 2013-08-02 14:14 | Report Abuse

From my point of view the depreciation of ringgit now is a good news for this company. as the main income is from overseas, UK, Singapore etc. This company is making back its money after investing in other business.

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-02 14:27 | Report Abuse

As shown in tabulation above, YTLP balance sheet is improving much further despite incur high capex to develop wimax.

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-02 14:30 | Report Abuse

As all its oversea business is profitable, the profit after make schedule debt repayment base on local currency, any surplus will translate to RM net profit and unrealized Forex gain

Posted by babu > 2013-08-02 14:37 | Report Abuse

hng33, thanks for your kind explanation:)

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-03 00:29 | Report Abuse

Most analysts have not impute the 33.5% YTLP stake in Electranet ~ price hike in their financial modelling. May increase YTLP YTL revenue and bottom-line over the long run http://www.aer.gov.au/sites/default/files/ElectraNet%20Revenue%20Proposal%20.pdf

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-03 00:33 | Report Abuse

Today received an email from unknown person target YTLP @ RM2.50 with reasons below :

a) Electricity charges in Indonesia will rise an average 4.3%, effective April 1, 2013
http://www.balidiscovery.com/messages/message.asp?Id=9266
http://www.jakartaupdates.com/2085-the-electricity-price-increased-effective-1-january-2013-for-large-customers

b) 30% stake in Jordan- potential earning capacities from next IPP (500MW) since 2017
https://www.enefit.com/news/-/news/2013/06/13/enefit-jordan-given-green-light-by-ministry-of-environment-to-proceed-with-oil-shale-fired-power-plant

c) Average household water bill to rise by 3.5% to £388 a year
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/9849057/Average-household-water-bill-to-rise-by-3.5pc-to-388-a-year.html
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/feb/09/rising-water-bills-profits

d) Underestimate of 33.5% in ELECTRANET- - revenue and price hike in 2014-2018

e) Potential earning from YTL Communication via YES, after subscribes more than 600,000

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-03 00:35 | Report Abuse

Moreover , 4Q2013 (release around Mid-August 2013) result shall be able to beat most analyst expectation in term of revenue and net profit; mainly driven by :

(i) UK water segment;
(ii) Lesser lost in Mobile industry - YES
(iii) Future earning driven by 33.5% stake in Electranet, Mobile (YES) and Jordan business (2017)

What do you all think?

Posted by babu > 2013-08-03 12:59 | Report Abuse

I think this kind of unsolicited email from unknown person with target price RM2.50 for YTLP is crazy when the average target price of all the above "known" analysts is RM1.77. If so good our EPF would not have sold so much shares in YTLP continuously !

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-03 17:33 | Report Abuse

Agreed with bubu on the valuation issue (CIMB only RM2.55) .However, I will take note on the highlights in my coming research; which didn't cover in my previous report

Posted by Albert Baker > 2013-08-03 19:22 | Report Abuse

It is an index share, revenue in bill, profit .. wau ..

Posted by babu > 2013-08-04 19:29 | Report Abuse

@Albert : correct me if I am wrong - I think YTLP is no longer an index stock as it has been removed from FBMKLCI w.e.f 24 June 2013. The parent YTL is, of course still an index stock.

Posted by miketyu > 2013-08-05 11:14 | Report Abuse

I forgot where i saw the news but u can google it. EPF is selling stocks in Msia to gain capital to invest in properties in Germany. More than 21 millions or billions invested.

Posted by babu > 2013-08-05 12:29 | Report Abuse

If EPF which is the biggest holder of stocks in M'sia is selling, should'nt we be also selling ? at the least we should refrain from buying - does this sound logical ?

Posted by MG9231 > 2013-08-05 21:13 | Report Abuse

EPF's selling/buying is nothing more than re-shuffle its portfolio. It has its expectation on the basket of shares it held. So, certain days buy and sell certain companies is common. ultimately,it discharge its responsiblity by makes certian % of return on the whole basket of companies invested. If a layman were to follow its investment style, I think a major part of the fund will be ended in the pocket of the remisiers.

Posted by MG9231 > 2013-08-05 21:17 | Report Abuse

Ivankvs, after reading your links, to certain extend it appears to be a good news for YTLPower in near future. I am sure the increase in price in it England as well as in indonesia will translate into good earning in next few quarters.

Posted by moneyking96 > 2013-08-05 21:19 | Report Abuse

Any news of privatise update?

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-06 10:38 | Report Abuse

Household water bills 3.5% rise

The average household water and sewerage bill in England and Wales is set to rise by around 3.5 per cent over the next year, water regulator Ofwat has announced.

The hike, which will add around £13 to the average bill, will deliver customer benefits in the long term, the regulator insists.

Ofwat has today confirmed household water and sewerage bills will rise by around 3.5 per cent over the next year.

Bill changes for this year will come into effect on April 1, 2013, and will apply until March 31, 2014. The impact of the new charges will vary for individual household customers depending on the company which supplies them and whether or not they have a water meter.


Ofwat estimates the average household water and sewerage bill will rise by around £13. This takes into account a rate of inflation of three per cent, and will mean an average bill of £388 in 2013/14.

Customers in the South East face the biggest rise of £23 a year, while those serviced by Wessex Water will see a hike of £22.

But some will in fact pay less – South West Water customers will see their bills fall by £40. This is because household customers served by South West Water will benefit from a Government Contribution, which will reduce the bill for all households by £50 per year.

Without this reduction, which is being applied from April 2013, South West Water’s combined average bill would be increasing by two per cent, or around £10, to £549.

The bill changes for each provider are listed below:

Anglican Water: £12

Dwr Cymru Welsh Water: £7

Northumbrian Water (excluding Essex and Suffolk?): £8

Severn Trent Water: £7

South West Water: -£40

Southern Water: £23

Thames Water: £18

United Utilities: 13

Wessex Water: £22

Yorkshire Water: £12

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-06 12:08 | Report Abuse

NONE of the analyst factor in the potential revenue and profit as highlighted from in below:

(i) UK water segment – tariff hike in 2013
(ii) Earning growth in 200 years concession in Electranet
(iii) Jordan’s revenue and earnings after 2017
(iv) Potentially breakeven and profit contribute from YTL YES segment
(v) Ringgit depreciate from RM2.96 to RM 3.25 as August 2013

CIMB research target RM2.55 (highest among others)
How much do you think YTL POWER shall worth?

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-06 12:09 | Report Abuse

Watch out for coming 4Q13 earning release (FY13); announce after Raya

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-06 12:31 | Report Abuse

I'm confident YTLP result will be better as it will record 3 month earning water and sewerage traffic hike, the impact will be significant as Wesses water is the largest contributor to YTLP now. Part of the RM 460m 1bestarient will also likely record in coming quarter

Posted by babu > 2013-08-06 12:36 | Report Abuse

I don't think CIMB's target price RM2.55 is realistic; unlikely in my opinion. In fact of all the target prices stated above only CIMB's is way off the mark - in short if we were to plot a graph of all the analysts' target prices, CIMB's can be considered a definitive outlier and should be ignored for our guidance purposes. I would think the average RM1.77 is a good value guide, though I'm not too optimistic watching the price action last week.

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-06 13:36 | Report Abuse

The major catalyst will be come from Wimax Yes + 1Bestarinet. The moment these division turnaround, all analyst will shout to upgrade YTLP to 'strong Buy'. In the meantime, YTLP will continue derive steady earning from

100% local IPP
(risk: more amortization as plant expire in 2015; fully provision will be made by end of the tenure. These power plant likely continue operation even without power agreement as Gov may continue buy power but at lower rate, profit margin will drop to single digit form current double digit)

20% PT Power Indonesian
(Recent Power traffic hike, no sure impact on power generator. However, earning is dominated in US dollar, stronger currency translate into higher earning in RM)

100% Power Seraya
(risk: increase power supply, increase competition, decrease profit margin, but stronger Sing dollar could mitigate earning erosion.

100% Wesses water
(water traffic hike, stronger pound vs. RM, positive impact on earning)

33.5% ElectraNet
(power transmission traffic hike, positive impact on earning)

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-06 14:31 | Report Abuse

As last few month, YTLP have aggressively buyback its own share, accumulating more than 2% treasury share , upcoming Q4 result will be improve by at least 2%.

Posted by fireball > 2013-08-06 14:59 | Report Abuse

EPF selling of some KL portfolios is also due to their recent strategy to diversify into foreign properties in Europe to take advantage of the beaten down values there and to increase their property portfolio exposure..hence the need to raise funds needed of about Euro 1 biliion.

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-06 15:14 | Report Abuse

YTLP has stop paying dividend could be the reason EPF disposing YTLP. However, i belive once Yes Wimax + 1 Bestarinet breakeven, YTLP will opt to reward shareholder with even higher dividend

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-06 15:31 | Report Abuse

YTLP seem building up buying volume, if share price can break RM 1.68, it will resume uptrend again. Its WB offer much better leverage

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-06 15:35 | Report Abuse

Thanks for all sharing. Definitely YTL POWER is undervalue, shall worth more than RM2.

An outstanding analyst will always do a comprehensive research in every single business under his sector coverage; else he will be no different with his peer.

YES- max speed 20Mbps; LTE max (300Mbps; Maxis LTE max speed 75Mbps) – What should YTL do in order to maintain and enhance it’s market share in mobile data?

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-06 15:54 | Report Abuse

As mention in earlier post here, all YTLP newly build Tower transmission are LTE ready. YTLP already equip itself with LTE license since end of last year, but have decided to delay awaiting for other telcos to venture first and market response. In the meantime Yes wimax already sufficient for its to secure 1besterinet and are now awaiting its maiden contribution.

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-06 16:10 | Report Abuse

hng33 – pls correct me if I am wrong. YTL 4G is eventually a 3.5G technology; with speed max cap at 20Mbps. Whereas MAXIS LTE can run as fast as 70Mbps. Full LTE can run superb fast at 300Mbps (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LTE_(telecommunication))

My concern: when full LTE implement in 2014-2015 and rising competition by other telco, how should YES maintain and enhance their market share? Are they allow to upgrade YES speed from 20Mbps to let say 100Mbps? If yes, how much will the CAPEX cost in 5000 tower?

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-06 16:12 | Report Abuse

1 more thing, if YES is good. Perhaps one shall focus on YTLE share; who receive leasing fee from YTL Communication at RM75m/yearly + 10% out of YES’s revenue > RM500m/ year. YTLE’s pretax margin at 70%. Do your maths on the bottom profit.

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-06 16:19 | Report Abuse

As we all aware Fransic Yeoh have very prudent personality. It won't venture in telco market with lack of proven technology 3 year ago 2010. YTLP select most establish Wimax technology to roll out it maiden telco business in 2010, but at the same time ensure these wimax technology have capability to be upgrade into full LTE in all its transmission tower. As you all aware, its transmission tower is the highest in turn of high and biggest in turn of size already build up standing in school playing field nationwide

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-06 16:22 | Report Abuse

YTLP already acquire YTL communication from YTLE, it is currently hold 60% stake with remaining hold by bumi partner. YTL com is one holding right for Wimax and LTE

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-06 16:26 | Report Abuse

For your information, In 2010, Maxis, Celcom suffer huge capex loss developing unsuccessful 3G technology

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-06 16:27 | Report Abuse

Lack of volume and momentum to push up YTLP to break RM 1.68 resistance level :(

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-06 17:32 | Report Abuse

Don’t worry; it will come to RM1.68 before RM2.00. We shall give them more time. 4Q13 earning release around 16/8/13 shall beat analyst estimate; especially rising tariff from UK business +RM weakening; but margin pressure on YTL Power Seraya (factored in)

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-06 18:14 | Report Abuse

YTL Power-WB offer cheaper exposure to YTLP. Leverage is 3.5x, 5 year tenure of life and almost zero premium

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-06 18:36 | Report Abuse

Go Go Go YTL Power-WB. Will try to look around

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-07 10:00 | Report Abuse

YTLP need big booster in order for it to have breakup form current sideways trading pattern. Lets hope with increasing Yes Wimax subscriber + iBesterinet, ca make its broadband division U turn

Posted by Peter Chen > 2013-08-07 10:18 | Report Abuse

The Man Who Brings Water to Bath YTL Corporation's Francis Yeoh
http://aseantradinglink.blogspot.com/2013/08/the-man-who-brings-water-to-bath-ytl.html

Posted by Peter5151 > 2013-08-07 12:15 | Report Abuse

Sitting with billion of cash are at the losing end in view of asset price increase over the years

Posted by miketyu > 2013-08-07 12:16 | Report Abuse

i think they are preserving cash for HSR project

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-07 13:13 | Report Abuse

Enefit Jordan given Green Light by Ministry of Environment to Proceed with Oil Shale Fired Power Plant

Independent Environmental Impact Assessment considers project location to be “Optimal”. Amman, June 12th, 2013 – Enefit Jordan has received approval from the Ministry of Environment to proceed with its oil shale fired power plant in Jordan. The approval was given following a review by a committee appointed by the ministry of a detailed third party Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) submitted by Enefit.

The EIA was conducted by an independent international consultant and covers the entire lifetime of the project from “cradle to grave.” In accordance with environmental standards and regulations of the EU, World Bank and the IFC, the EIA provided a comprehensive review of the impact of the project on all environmental and social factors including water usage, soil, air, socio-economic impacts in addition to the eventual completion of operations and remediation of the project area.

Andres Anijalg, Project Director for Enefit Jordan, stated “We are now one step closer to making this project a reality and leveraging Jordan’s abundant oil shale resources to overcome the energy challenges the Kingdom is facing. The approval of the EIA is a major milestone and confirms that this project, the advanced technology involved and the various environmental protection measures that we have put in place will ensure there will be minimal impact to the local environment and the local community.”

Anijalg went on to say, “A proper EIA requires a lot of time and effort and we have worked on this for 2 years. The first step was to establish a baseline analysis of the project area with regards to environmental, cultural and socio-economic aspects. Another important factor was monitoring of the weather in the area which is conducted over an entire year with the data collected and carefully analysed. The EIA has confirmed that the project area is close to optimal.”

Due to the advances in oil shale technology in recent years, the environmental impact has been significantly reduced. In accordance with EU environmental regulations, Enefit’s project in Jordan will use circulating fluidized bed technology, ensuring minimum environmental impact. Furthermore, in order to minimise water usage, the plant will be an air-cooled plant reducing the need for water.

The power plant is scheduled to start generating electricity for local consumption by 2017. It will have a capacity of approximately 500MW and is expected to reduce the Kingdom’s expenditure on the import of oil products for power generation by more than 350 million Jordanian Dinars a year. The project will also create thousands of jobs and provide a wide range of economic benefits for the Kingdom.

Enefit Jordan is owned by Enefit (Eesti Energia AS), YTL Power International Berhad of Malaysia and Near East Investments Limited of Jordan.

Eliis Vennik
Eesti Energia
Press Officer
eliis.vennik@energia.ee
+372 715 12 18
+372 57 830 756

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-07 13:29 | Report Abuse

Putting its cash to work

YTL Power’s 30%-owned JV with Enefit
Jordan (65%) and Near East Investments of Jordan (5%) to build a
500MW oil shale-fired power plant has received the green light from the
Jordan government. The RM15b project is expected to be operational by
2017. At current juncture, it will probably take another 6 to 12 months for the project to start construction. YTLP’s equity portion in the project is likely to be funded by its sizeable cash pile of RM10.9b. This project is part of the plan to make up for the impending expiration of the PPA for its power plants in Paka and Pasir Gudang

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-07 14:18 | Report Abuse

hgn 33 - y repeat previous posted article /news ?

Posted by permastan > 2013-08-11 23:31 | Report Abuse

water rate in england up