Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-12 14:21 | Report Abuse

YTL Power, Lets hope have real power now, to break RM 1.68 resistance level.

Posted by rlch > 2013-08-12 14:27 | Report Abuse

Hope they can declare treasury shares distribution by end of this month.

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-12 14:35 | Report Abuse

YTLP only accumulate 2% in treasury share only, if wan to to distribute 1 for 50, just to little to spark share performance. The main catalyst will be turnaround of its broadband division, Yes WiMax + 1 Bestarinet

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-12 15:27 | Report Abuse

Yes, got power

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-12 15:29 | Report Abuse

will it be good if ytl power declare special dividend 20cen?

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-12 15:39 | Report Abuse

Special dividend 20cen !!??

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-12 16:10 | Report Abuse

YTLP seem successful breaking its immediate resistance level at 1.68, if can stay above, uptrend confirm. Its WB offer even more upside potential

Posted by miketyu > 2013-08-12 16:17 | Report Abuse

rose 5 sen. what is happening?

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-12 16:26 | Report Abuse

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Posted by Peter5151 > 2013-08-12 16:43 | Report Abuse

I still think most likely share distribution, the treasures share > 2.5%. So its likely 1 for 40. Wb should be better. It will adjust accordingly.

Posted by rlch > 2013-08-12 17:47 | Report Abuse

Treasury shares more than 3%. Either 1 for 40 or 3 for 100 shares distribution possible.
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/anpth/922895.jsp

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-13 11:53 | Report Abuse

Uptrend intact

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-13 12:31 | Report Abuse

Power getting stronger now, WB offer more leverage gain

Posted by soma69 > 2013-08-13 13:36 | Report Abuse

I've salah buy this stock... not knowing YES Comm is parked under it. "Zero" earnings after 2.5 years !!!

Posted by Peter5151 > 2013-08-13 13:45 | Report Abuse

The YES comm not making money, this is know fact, or discounted news. It's NOT going to be making any money any time soon. But when it accumulated the enough customer base, the profit will be in the vertical format ....

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-13 14:24 | Report Abuse

Yes comm or YTLP broadband division is not making money but incur huge loss instead. The loss in these division is more than YTLP IPP contribution. The catalyst will be broadband division could at least breakeven by end of these year with the help from 1Bestarinet. If it do, YTLP earning will be big boost already.

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-13 14:42 | Report Abuse

YTLP allocated RM5b for YES CAPEX.
Assume APRU RM 55 monthly
with 500,000 subscribes, profit margin at 70%; EBIT from YES= 500k * 55* 12 * 70%= RM 231m/year ( Capaex RM200m this year)= YES might narrow loss /break even

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-13 14:43 | Report Abuse

story going play is coming 4Q2013 , YTLP profit driven by UK WATER BUSINESS- upward adjusted tariff + on going 200 YEARS - AUSTRALIA AND NEW JORDAN business

Posted by permastan > 2013-08-13 20:52 | Report Abuse

wait for 2.20

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-13 21:22 | Report Abuse

If YTLP TP at 2.20, then its WB will worth 98sen, almost double the current price !!

Posted by permastan > 2013-08-14 19:02 | Report Abuse

wait until it come true

Posted by kolim13 > 2013-08-14 23:01 | Report Abuse

if YTLP business is made good profit ,why the share price still hold on between 1.65-1.73?
And the warrant -WB look like undervalue ?

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-14 23:38 | Report Abuse

kolim13

This is what we call hidden gem...If you look back past history 2-3 year ago, YTLP share and its WB were above RM 2.30 and RM 1.00. It is only begin downtrend ever since YTLP decided to venture into broadband business. As these new venture need a lot of capex as much as multi billion need to spend in order to build coverage throughout country, YTLP have since then decided to cut down dividend payout till nil now. YTLP share lose it high yield status and share price on downtrend till now.

These broadband division has make huge lose and dampen YTLP earning to as much RM300m loss a year, more than its local IPP contribution of RM 200m a year. In order word, all current earning of YTLP are derive solely from oversea business.

However, since last year, YTLP has awarded 1Bestarinet project by MOE to wired up internet connection in all 2000 secondary and 8000 primary school, the earning contribution from 1bestarinet will start to account in YTLP broadband division beginning these year onward, which could potentially offset lose incur by its commercial Yes Wimax. Upcoming Q4 result is important to judge whether or not it indeed happen.

Another pull factor is YTLP largest earning contributor, Wessex Water have granted traffic hike by UK authorities beginning 1 Apr these year by as much as 5.6%, and earning boost will be reflected in upcoming Q4 result. In additiona, YTLP 33.5% interest in ElectraNet, the power transmission base in Australia also in the midst to secure traffic hike.

Apart from that, recent currency weakness will be good factors for YTLP, UK pound, USD, Sing dollar all appreciate substantially against RM.

Posted by Leesk > 2013-08-15 10:27 | Report Abuse

good analysis. How about news on privatisation of the company by the major shareholders since the company has been viewed as undervalue.

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-15 10:49 | Report Abuse

My forecast.
a) factor in UK water tariff hike
b) YES 4Q13 profit RM92m
c) Narrow profit margin from Powerseraya and IPP Msia & Indonesia
d) Didn’t include CAPEX and potential revenue/profit hike from new business- Jordan (30%); Australia (Elentra 33.5%); Ringgit depreciate


4Q13 total revenue RM4b; net profit RM407mil
FY13 total revenue RM15.9b; net profit RM1.17b
EPS 16cen ; with 12x PE @ 2014= RM 1.92

Am I too optimistic?

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-15 10:52 | Report Abuse

Thanks for Hng33 sharing. Good analyst.

Some comments:
9MFY13, total revenue and pre-tax profit stood at RM338mil and –RM192mil respectively. However, government says it already paid YTL RM663mil.

Assume this figure take into 4Q13 revenue (conservative assume -no other revenue except RM663m); the 4Q13 will see mobile segment jump by RM325m (663-338).

With conservative profit margin assume superb low at 30% (normal rate at 70%), PBT shall be RM 98m; which may help to narrow down YTL mobile bsuiness loss from –RM192m to –RM100m FY13.

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-15 15:12 | Report Abuse

Ivankvs

Your assumption is fairly conservative, As stock market trade 6 month ahead of company fundamental, as soon as YTLP broadband which is main culprit dampen YTLP earning make significant turnaround, all research analyst will soon jump to reverse their call from neutral/sell/underperformed to overweight.

I assume YTLP Q4 result could be better aside from my factors mention above, is YTLP have since Mar aggressive accumulate share, boosting its treasury share to 3.26%, which will at least enhance EPS by 3% or alternatively even better if YTLP opt to distribution treasury share 1 for 33, give rise to final dividend of at least 5sen, and share price will be boosting as it resume high yield status.

Posted by devilnevercry > 2013-08-15 17:10 | Report Abuse

YTL will not be that generous. Have they ever?

Posted by kolim13 > 2013-08-16 00:56 | Report Abuse

Thanks for Hng33 and Ivankvs sharing. Good analyst

Posted by Peter5151 > 2013-08-16 09:14 | Report Abuse

YTL never known as generous, that why the share distribute is highly possible, just to enrich the YTL family. by doing so, the YTL family benefit the more....

Posted by johotin88 > 2013-08-16 15:05 | Report Abuse

Q result will be released today?

Posted by Peter5151 > 2013-08-16 15:13 | Report Abuse

I guess next thusday. .looking at the share price at of now, The Q result may not look good. .

Posted by Jerry > 2013-08-16 15:13 | Report Abuse

hng33 share buy back will improve eps only if they cancel the share buy back isn't it? I dont see any notice ofcancellation of share buy back. Dont expect of share distribution by ytlp, ytl is looking for take over... distribution of share back to public=unneccesarry waste of resource for take over later. Reason of share buy back is simle, for future take over pirpose/just to maintain their share price, because i guess they have pledged their shares to the bankers.

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-16 17:14 | Report Abuse

Jerry

Share in treasury account will not take into account when calculate EPS. The EPS is calculate by total net profit divided by total outstanding share (excluding treasury share). In other word, the EPS will indirectly improve by 3% in accounting.

Share distribution remain a wild card, just like share swap between YTLP and YTL corp. Investor can just expecting but not confirmation yet.

Yeoh family used their private company to control 56% in YTL corp, which in turn control 51% in YTL Power. Yeoh family themselves also have some direct stake in YTL power. There is no pledge share to banker.

Posted by Penang Ran > 2013-08-17 13:01 | Report Abuse

I support hng33 analysis in terms of figure. I do agreed with Jerry that Yeoh family in better position for cancellation the treasury share and maintain the market price as low as Rm 1.60.Otherwise, EPF will NOT dispose the share holding from 10% down to 7%.

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-19 14:09 | Report Abuse

YTLP sleeping giant... subject to re-rating once Yes-wimax + 1 bestarinet turnaround.

Posted by THW5594 > 2013-08-19 14:14 | Report Abuse

When will the giant be awake?

Posted by Jerry > 2013-08-19 14:17 | Report Abuse

really? i thought earning/total shares issued? Anyway, if there is no pledge of shares to banker. The only reason of share buy back is for future take over purpose. They are trying to reduce public holding in order to avoid too much dilluting of yeoh's control over ytl once take over annouced.

Posted by Peter5151 > 2013-08-20 15:49 | Report Abuse

whether cancellation or share distribution. There are serving the same purpose. i.e. there is no different for Yeah family in term of the % holding of YTLPower ...

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-21 17:45 | Report Abuse

Yes, YTLP resume aggressive share buyback, bought back 4,893,400 share at RM 1.61, worth total 7,903,209.12, increase treasury share from 3.26 to current 3.32%. Just wish all EPF stake can sell and buyback by YTLP, to ease off selling pressure from EPF

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-21 19:14 | Report Abuse

Hng- u are right. They bought back at very low price @ 1.61 today; possible indicate the coming result will be good.

I wish I can get an answer from Dato Francis Yeoh:
a) What will the management do in order to increase shareholder wealth with RM11.2b (including estimate RM400m profit) as FY13?
b) YES- maximum speed is 20Mbs. Full LTE can go for 300Mbs. Maxis LTE can go for 75Mbs. How are YTLP to compete in the mobile business given the company already spend RM5b in the business?
c) What will be the estimate CAPEX for Jordan and Australia business?

Posted by ivankvs > 2013-08-21 19:15 | Report Abuse

The hope for YTL Power now is a special dividend declare of 10-20cen which will push the share price to RM2.00 by next week (if any) .

Posted by ladzatz > 2013-08-21 19:17 | Report Abuse

that datuk/tan sri Y's family are stingy and makan sendiri group..they never think about the minority shareholders...and u ivanks still hope they goin to change their way? pray je lah ...haha

Posted by Siew Jian Bin > 2013-08-21 20:50 | Report Abuse

For current price, YTL Power is very safe for investment. I have bought this share 8 years ago. Though not really earn a lot, but I am sure that the management team is good and reliable. This counter will shine when the crisis coming. Check the history if your are free.

Posted by Jerry > 2013-08-21 20:58 | Report Abuse

it's safe to buy now, cause share buy back exercised at Rm1.610. Thats was a good support, but when considering how much it could go up with the current bad bad market condition? i decided not to buy, keep the cash for a real oportunity

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-22 09:43 | Report Abuse

Bought YTLP at 1.57

Posted by JTFX > 2013-08-22 09:48 | Report Abuse

waiting for the WB at 0.40...

Posted by miketyu > 2013-08-22 09:50 | Report Abuse

Damn. Yeoh's family has been waiting for chance like this to buy back more shares. Follow.

Posted by hng33 > 2013-08-22 09:51 | Report Abuse

Bought more YTLP at 1.55-1.56

Posted by miketyu > 2013-08-22 09:58 | Report Abuse

when does the WB expire?