The ban is likely pretty temporary ahead of Hari Raya celebration. They changed policy more than 6 times this year, on average once in 2.5 weeks. So, expect them to change policy In a few weeks time
I think the ban was due to overpowering greed among retailers trying to hide and jack up prices in Jakarta
To prevent rioting like in Sri Lanka and Pakistan (now Nepal) due to skyrocketing prices President Jokowi is forced to take this drastic measure
for Tsh it is now not just palm oil angle as an investment
it is more for the land development prospects from its super prime located lands (94,700 acres) in Kutai or Nusantara the new Capital of Indonesia
The lands are now too valuable for agriculture as it has both residential and commercial purpose like Putrajaya and Cyberjaya
I bought Kulim at Rm2.50. Kulim the biggest palm oil holders in Johor was taken private by Johor Corp at Rm4.00
After Kulim was taken private they converted two palm oil estates into thriving townships : One near Desaru and one in Tanjung Berlungkor both near Rapid of Pengerang
TSH COULD DEVELOP THESE PRIME LANDS OR SELL THEM TO INDONESIAN DEVELOPERS
AS TO PALM OIL BAN THEY SHOULD BE LIFTED WHEN PEOPLE CAN GET THEM IN SUFFICIENT QUANTITIES LATER
By May 2022 Tsh will report profit of 7.56 sen land sale of Sabah. Plus operating profit from palm oil and other businesses also the remeasurement gain of Tsh's 21.95% share profit in Innoplant the total profit could be double digits
Since Tsh policy like hsplant is to give out 60% dividend from Profit we can also expect another dividend
and after that will come another 31 sen net profit from Bulugan Regency land sale
Good ,great and exceptional things are lining up one by one with more goodies ahead
Still, “despite record prices overall, vegetable oil demand remains high because vegetable oils are an essential part of diets in all countries and particularly in countries like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh”, said John Baize, an independent analyst who also advises the US Soybean Export Council.
Baize calls Indonesia's restriction on palm oil exports a “big deal” but expects it won’t last long. He noted that Indonesia exported 26.87 million metric tons of palm oil in 2021, compared to consuming 15.28 million metric tons domestically.
Caution is urged on CPO stocks. Long term, they may not be as rosy as we think. ........................................................................................................
Yeah go buy tech stocks that lose value during high inflation. And sell commodties stocks that hedge against inflation during high inflation.
Baize calls Indonesia's restriction on palm oil exports a “big deal” but expects it won’t last long. He noted that Indonesia exported 26.87 million metric tons of palm oil in 2021, compared to consuming 15.28 million metric tons domestically.
sooner indon will lift the export ban to cater the need for global demand .indon account for 60% export global,while Malaysia only 25% .demand from EU will be huge.
KPB Nusantara data, local cpo prices. Direction pretty much go in line with international prices but at a discount. https://gapki.id/en/commodities-prices
What Indonesia is doing is to flood the local market with CPO and thus drive local selling price for cooking oil , biodiesel and all consumer products containing palm oil to very low level. It’s aim to cushion the hardship caused by hyperinflation and reduce government subsidies in cooking oil and fuels. Such move , if it is prolonged is bad for plantations in Indonesia.
it is not banning export of semi-finished or finished by products like palmic acid, soap, detergent, milk creamer and one thousand other by products of palm oil
Plus Robert Kuok and 15 other Palm oil richest billionaires made their fortunes in Indonesia from palm oil
@GLNT ,if indon local cpo price with slight discount compared to international price think still ok la,as exporter can save from high transportation and high export levy charges.levy charges is usd675 (about rm2870).
My guest is that the ban effected is a negotiation technique by the Indonesian govt to bring the industry players onto a supply formula where 1) quantities of cooking oil supply is ensured 2) supplies are at the affordable prices that the govt wants. As such, the ban will definitely be temporary and the underlying trend of demand outstripping supply and rising prices remain intact .
so smart money will be moving over to Malaysia palm oil companies with 100% plantation/mills in MY without any exposure in Indonesia since profit will be marginalised by this export ban. Brace for price impact here.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
GLNT
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Posted by GLNT > 2022-04-23 10:56 | Report Abuse
The ban is likely pretty temporary ahead of Hari Raya celebration. They changed policy more than 6 times this year, on average once in 2.5 weeks. So, expect them to change policy In a few weeks time