Err... If I were not wrong, Q4FY21 reported 49 mil profit when brent avg 62 and Q1FY22 reported 40 mil when brent avg 72. The reason for lower profit when brent is higher is due to higher down time. So, assuming back to normal, brent 72 should provide hibiscus earning that's much higher than 49, say between 55-60mil? And with brent above 80, guess earnings will be even higher. According to the management, repsol acquisition is expected to provide 60% cash flow or earnings before tax (can't remember.) I believe hibiscus should easily report 500 mil a year with crude above 80. Though, it would be very risky to use PE higher than 8 to price hibiscus given commodities tend to be very volatile, unless crude were to stay above 80 consistently for more than a year.
Happy Tiger year to all investors on this thread. May the Tiger brings excellent health and joy to you all.
A word of caution - Hibiscus' Q2 FY22 (to be announced this month) is for Oct 21 to Dec 21 production. So Repsol's production would not be included. The first quarter to include Repsol's production would be Q3 FY22 that should be announced in May 2022.
BTW nashvz, what would be Dayang's expected TP in the coming FY22/23?
If Brent stays above $90 at tomorrow opening bell, I think I not laughing all the way to the bank. I be rolling all the way to the bank. Ppl will think I gone kuku a'dy lol Huat ah! Heng ah! Ong ah!!!
Ya, read that Russia Ukraine conflicts has heightened. Anyway, I'm ok with all the macho man talks between Russia and US counterpart like NATO which is really good for oil but I hope it will remain as NATO( No action Talk Only). War is never good for anyone and only innocent civilian suffers.
When brent crossed 70 a few months ago, Hibiscus celebrated with share price of 0.97. The next time when brent crossed 80, Hibiscus barely crossed 0.90. With the recent high of brent above 90, Hibiscus barely crossed 1.00 for a few moments. Has the "green movement" escalated over the last few months with 10x more windmills, solar panels, hydro and nuclear?
What's more, Hibiscus celebrated a Brent above 80 with share price above 1.20 before Covid-19 pandemic. So, the only possible reason would be market is concerned, whether there'll be too much dilution and if the deal is good, over the Repsol deal then when Hibiscus could only celebrate a crude above 70 with 0.97 share price. Though, with the recent completed Repsol deal and a proof than the management has betted correctly with the Repsol acquisition, i.e. the brent has risen sharply compared to when the deal is negotiated and signed. Yet, there's still so much noises believing that Hibiscus is over-priced???
I think the fundamentals will start to do the talking.. Oil is not going anywhere anytime soon.. We aren't all going out tomorrow to sell our cars and, as flights and freight continue to pick up, oil will remain in demand even with increased production. Hibiscus is a very well run business, management is world class with extensive experience. They hold no debt and I doubt they will even have to use their credit facilities to help with the reposol acquisition. The crps, operational profit from reposol to date and cash in hand is more than enough to cover it. A brilliant move I'd say. And I'm sure as we start to learn more with their Q2 reporting and guidance on repsols impact coming next week its only going to be very positive to their share price.. Still significantly undervalued I'd say and I'm going back in for more..
Sifu sold all arr....bcause sifu always limit damage to sifu balls arr. Bcause sifu wants to use it to fuk another day arr. You on your own now. Good luck.
Thats why they call me sifu. There are times you r in. They are times you r out. Dance to the rythm. You tango with market dynamics. You dont take one view n stick with it. If like that one of these days you wud lose yr underwear. Whats in your head is not the same with whats in market.
"Always cut your losses short"
I made $310,000 in atech, i lost $5,000 in hibiscus. Bcause i no stiupeeeed like you.
bad idea 7 sisters sold off because of global warming.
just take any reasonable profits and run. This is just not a long term share to retire on.
long term we are all dead,,,,,,,, but remember long term deep sea oil is not recoverable due to global warming. The oceans are just getting too violent to operate on.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
apple168
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Posted by apple168 > 2022-01-31 11:24 | Report Abuse
Current COVID pandemic, oil usage will not back to norm! This is the RIGHT fact! Remember this!