Icon8888 Gossips About Stocks
(Icon) 2019 Might Surprise On The Upside
1. Trump Has Been Right About The Trade War
I consider myself a Panda Hugger. But in the latest trade war between US and China, I found myself siding with the Americans.
How come ?
Because the Americans are correct, China's Made in China 2025 is a huge threat to global prosperity. According to that industrial masterplan, between now and 2025, China will be investing multiple hundreds of billions in several high tech industries.
Take semiconductor as an example : that will add huge capacity to the industry and drag down prices for memory chips and other semiconductor components. It will have huge adverse impact on Western companies.
Guess who is part of the supply chain ? Yes, Malaysia.
If Made in China 2025 materialises as planned, Intel, Nvidia, and many other companies might need to scale down their operation in Malaysia and other countries. Because the Chinese will be buying less from them.
Our Inari ? JHM ? Elsoft ? Unisem ? MPI ? They will all be in trouble.
Now you see why I say it is a threat to global prosperity.
2. From Incredulity To Acceptance
In confronting China, the Americans demanded several changes be made to the trading relationship :-
(a) eliminates the trade deficit;
(b) opens up China's market; and
(c) stops Made in China 2025.
The first two conditions are not impossible to meet, but the third one caught the Chinese by surprise. "How outrageous ! What makes the Americans think that they have the right to tell us what we can or cannot do with our own industrial policy ? That is our sovereign right !".
The initial reaction was incredulity, anger and defiance. However, as they engaged more with the Americans, they seemed to gradually understand that their counterpart's stance is not that unreasonable afterall. If the Americans don't act now, their high tech industries might be oliterated in the coming decade. It is an existential threat. Who can blame them for complaining ?
Due to this new insight, the Chinese have become much more flexible and accomodative. For example, in this article dated 14 December 2018, China's state-linked Gobal Times acknowledged that there is a need to coordinate the country's industrial policy with other countries.
This paradigm shift is probably the reason why the two sides are able to make some progress over past few weeks. It is now possible that a deal will ultimately be struck and things will go back to normal.
Different people has different view. For me, the Trade War is the biggest threat to the global economy and equity market in 2019. With that out of the way, there is a chance that equity will perform reasonably well in 2019, especially now that so many stocks are trading at such depressed level.
2019 might surprise on the upside.
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Discussions
4 people like this. Showing 37 of 37 comments
Icon, have you taken you medicine? You must be unstable after losing over 50% in Jaks
2019-01-01 20:12
Icon888, the same fellow who promote Jaks at 1.20? Now Jaks how much? All his stocks masok longkang
2019-01-01 20:20
He picked penny stocks last year, from 0.100 to 0.200, think will win no.1.
2019-01-01 20:31
icon
We have in the US, a President who is a guy who is anti facts and a mafia goon......how can that be good for anybody, including USA ...or has any thing of permanent value?
2019-01-01 21:20
If you see beyond the erratic behaviours, most of the things he does are quite rational
2019-01-01 21:28
Icon8888 > Jan 1, 2019 09:28 PM | Report Abuse
If you see beyond the erratic behaviours, most of the things he does are quite rational
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u can say thing for all mafia dons and of Najib too.......
2019-01-01 21:35
Icon8888 > Jan 1, 2019 09:28 PM | Report Abuse
If you see beyond the erratic behaviours, most of the things he does are quite rational
===========
u can say same thing for all mafia dons and of Najib too.......
Trump is not an academic , his solutions appeal to basic instincts ...the final cost will greatly exceed any possible benefits.
2019-01-01 21:37
We should have a competition of top 10 most argumentative people in i3
I nominate three : CharlesT , Cute Jon and qqq3
2019-01-01 21:39
I support Icon this time. Not all of our views are always right. But I believe yes this time. So let's wait and see.
2019-01-01 22:07
Yes! That's way we want. All the losers now become good friends and stop attacking one another.
2019-01-01 22:09
On face value they may say cooperate, but behind the back they are cranking up the machinery to overtake US
2019-01-01 23:02
China's State-owned Enterprise has free land, free technology to compete with US corporations. This is what Trump said its unfair and want to correct.
Also, in the early days, individuals can take government research results to business for free. That's how PUC, Haier, Hainan Airways, Huawei etc got big.
The China's Chinese are just doing things in a different way. That's why they can never reach a deal with the US government.
2019-01-01 23:50
in 20 years, we don't need America and they can have 10 Trumps...no one cares.....
2019-01-01 23:58
ever considered? what ever China do is within international laws within WTO rules and if there are issues , lets bring the issues.....
2019-01-02 00:10
I like the idea of the competition.
On the side note, I found that Icon has changed notably, very calm & cool.
Icon8888 We should have a competition of top 10 most argumentative people in i3
I nominate three : CharlesT , Cute Jon and qqq3
01/01/2019 21:39
2019-01-02 00:21
I hope what you said will become reality, back to normal & possible upside in 2019.
2019-01-02 00:22
the demise and rise of any world's super power is a natural thing. This history has taught us. America's seat at the top has been overly extended. They have overstayed their welcome. Happy new year folks.
2019-01-02 09:22
Chinaman is being too greedy. Their business model is seen rather scarely to many people. They would go for extreme to achieve their goals as no religion to them back. '一條龍" business strategy is notoriously in eliminating the survival of others. State enterprises are being subsidised heavily to eliminate competitors and deploying new technologies concur another at whatever means. Being the 2nd largest economy in the world, CCP is instilling boycott technic to their own people punishing non local brands when something happens against their political wills. No way for US to stop them once they have achieved made in China 2025.
2019-01-02 09:58
Posted by Up_down > Jan 2, 2019 09:58 AM | Report Abuse
Chinaman is being too greedy.
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u should look at the track record of Americans before writing nonsense....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IfAzGKaSkA
2019-01-02 10:05
Haha, US is a selfish hypocrite. For (c), Uncle Sam should also blame himself.
US banned Intel from selling supercomputer chips to China after the latter built the fastest supercomputer in 2013. Then China are forced to design their own chips for their supercomputer, which was fastest from 2016 until Oct 2018 (read TOP500). US banned China from joining international space station program. So China are forced to build their own space station.
US media demonized Asia countries on pollution. But in fact, US is the biggest CO2 emissions country based on per capita, 2x times of China, 10x times of India. US exports waste to poor countries in Asia, withdrew from Paris Agreement, great power comes less responsibility.
2019-01-02 13:26
Trump is standing on the interest of Americans to start demanding a ‘fair’ deal with China. If China is really able live independently from US, then they can simply ignore (lcly) Trump. No matter we like US or not, we have to face the reality. See what would happen to China and US economy in next 6 months.
2019-01-02 19:41
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Cheers ICON8888! Good bye 2018 and welcome to a very Happy New Year 2019, welcome to a profitable new year.
2019-01-01 19:52