kcchongnz blog
Investing is about the future, not the past, stupid! kcchongnz
I have just read an interesting article titled "It is the future earning that matters, stupid" by my friend Icon8888 here:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/98825.jsp
I would rate this as a great article as many can learn something from it, unlike many just touting certain stocks for you to chase when their share prices have increased a lot, and as a result, I believe many retail investors have lost a bundle due to their own greed following those tips in the last half a year.
Furthermore, my name was mentioned and there was a write-up on me which I highly appreciated, although I may not agree with some of it, which I will elaborate later. Thanks for the publicity, I really do.
Icon8888 further reinforced that "the best predictor of share price is earning growth".
I agree with his statement except that to me, it is just half the story, or may be just a quarter only of the story, in my opinion, which I will elaborate later too.
First of all, we should agree that we are discussing about investing, and not trading. Stock market is dominated by institutional investors, fund managers, syndicates etc who have all the resources. It is a highly uneven playfield, if you play on other's field by engaging in a zero-sum game of trading, very few retail investors can be a winner, unless you are very lucky.
What do some super investors say about investing?
“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.” Benjamin Graham
“Successful Investing takes time, discipline and patience. No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time: You can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.” Buffett
Predicting the future earnings
let see how do these people following this "the best predictor of share price is earning growth" principle predicts their future earnings or earnings growth. I will use this argument given by Icon8888 himself that,
Quote [“What caused you to lose money is the PLC that you invest in DIDN'T DELIVER STRONG PROFIT AS EXPECTED".
If you compared the earnings table and the chart above, Canone share price experienced strong run around November 2015, after releasing two consecutive quarters of strong results - June 2015 quarter's strong profit caused certain people to start accumulating. September 2015 quarter's strong profit "confirm a trend", resulting in massive buying by the investing public.
However, after a good run, Canone share price started declining in February 2016. That was actually due to the release of December 2015 quarterly result, which was below everybody's expectation. Share price declined further in May 2016 after the release of another quarter (March 2016) of depressing results.
See the correlation? Strong earnings caused share price to go up, weak earnings caused share price to go down.] Unquote
The total market capitalization of Canone at RM2.50 was only about RM380m. Assuming there is 30% free float, there was only about RM100m worth of shares of Canone in the market to “play” about. Sure, if someone who has a lot of money and he saw the high profit growth in the quarter, he used RM50m of his own money and borrowed another RM50m to “play” the stock using a certain golden rule strategy, and at the same time touting this stock everywhere in seminars, in the internet, and with friendly bloggers, you can imagine how high the share price of Canone can go up to, can’t you? More so if as a big shareholder now, he goes into the AGM and demands for bonus issues, share splits and “free” warrants in the name of liquidity, and the management works hand-in-hand with him, and assuming with some help from the syndicates, the sky is the limit for its share price. These people would have the insider information way before the good quarterly results were announced and have bought loads of them before the announcements. Some naïve retail investors will follow suit to chase the stock after the announcements of good results.
What happened when the next quarter results turned bad? I am sure insiders would have seen it coming way before the announcement of the bad quarterly reports and have exited way before that. Those who suffered the steep price drop of 37% just 5 months ago from RM5.10 to RM3.22 now are the poor retail investors. You can see the outcome now following the strategy of "the best predictor of share price is earning growth" for Canone.
How well have been the predictions of future earnings growth
The case of Canone mentioned above appear to me it is using the quarterly announced reports and made “predictions” that the growth in future profit.
Aren’t quarterly results historical too? And what does research shows regarding forecasting of future earnings predictions?
The forecasting of future earnings and hence future growth in earnings is in the domain of professional analysts who are qualified, knowledgeable and with all the information at their disposal. We as retail investors have our own jobs and professions and have no match against them. Let’s see how well the professionals have done in forecasting of future earnings, and hence growth in earnings.
Figure 1 below shows the long-term growth, historic, forecast and out-turn (1985-2007) of futue earnings and hence growth in eranings from Dresdner Kleinwort Macro Research, a reputable research house.
There is statistically no difference between the actual out-turns of return on investment for those in the high-growth quintile which is based on the high earnings forecast, and those in the low growth quintile. For the high growth projection, the out-turn was way below the expectation. Investors who chased the high growth shares with high valuations, and hoping for further valuation expansion due to high growth expectation, lost a bundle.
What is the difference of the “earnings” you use and the earnings in my return on capitals, ROC, or return of equity, ROE? Aren’t they the same historical data?
Why do I think return on capital is more important than the future earnings or earnings growth?
Return on capital
Customarily, most investors measure annual company performance by looking at earnings per share (EPS). Did they increase over last year? Are they high enough to brag about? For his part, Buffett considers EPS a smokescreen. Most companies retain a portion of their previous year's earnings as a way of increasing their equity base, so he sees no reason to get excited about record earnings per share. There is nothing spectacular about a company that increases earnings per share by 10%, if at the same time, it is growing its equity base by 10%. That's no different, he explains, from putting money in a savings account and letting the interest accumulate and compound. Worse still, there are many companies borrow huge amount of money to improve EPS, but the marginal return is way below its borrowing costs.
For example, a company borrows RM100 m and invest in a new project making RM2 m for the year. Its earnings would grow by RM2 m and EPS grows by 2% for the year. Is that a good move? Obviously not. How can making a 2% of an additional capital when the cost is much higher than that a good thing?
The test of economic performance, he believes, is whether a company achieves a high earnings rate on equity capital ("without undue leverage, accounting gimmickry, etc."), not whether it has consistent gains in EPS.
If your rate of return is lower than the cost, the value of the company is being slowly destroyed. The higher the growth, the faster the value is being destroyed.
This is one of many of them.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/60180.jsp
There are many examples in the link below:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/63777.jsp
But let’s say the company has profit growth as well as earning high ROE, will that earnings growth just announced definitely increase the share price in the long run?
Price versus value
“The secret to successful investing is to figure out the value of something and then-pay a lot less” Joel Greenblatt
Would you offer RM10 to buy a beautifully renovated bungalow in a suburb with similar bungalows average price at RM1m? Maybe and maybe not, but you still need to make an assessment why that bungalow costs so much more before you buy, don’t you?
Why is value not in the equation of this statement below?
"the best predictor of share price is earning growth"
Or unless you think the stock market is efficient; that the price has incorporated all information and it is a fair price.
So which school of thought are you in; the efficient market, of inefficient market?
Let us look at a high earnings growth company in the United States, Microsoft Corporation. In December 2000, Microsoft was trading at around RM59.00, at a PE ratio of 84, with earnings per share (EPS) of 70 sen then. In the seven years leading to 1999, Microsoft’s EPS has grown by 775%, or a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34%. That high PE ratio for such a high growth company was logical, wasn’t it? Microsoft’s EPS was $2.63 for the last twelve months ending 30th September 2014, or an increase of 276% since 14 years ago. It is still a fantastic CAGR of 10%. I doubt you can find many companies like this with this type of CAGR. Microsoft was trading at $48.79 then. Its share price was still 17% below what it was 14 years earlier, despite its share price has risen by about 200% since the US sublime crisis 5 years ago.
The August 2000 issue of Fortune Magazine included an article titled “10 Stocks to Last the Decade” with expected high earnings growth. The recommended stocks (which were described as “Here’s a buy-and-forget portfolio” that would let you “Retire when ready”) suffered an average loss of 80% at the end of 2002. Some have gone into oblivion like Enron, Nokia, and none of them have recovered to their previous prices as at now. Sure, investors can retire when you are 80 years old, but eating Maggie mee every day.
The problem with forecasting future earnings is not only it is difficult to do it right consistently, even if you are right once in a while, because most people chase growth and pay too much for growth, the outcome of investment has not been satisfactory.
"The price you pay determines your return."
How about these comment of me?
"KC relies heavily on past performance of PLCs to guide his investment decisions".
"Contrary to his own belief that one should not invest based on prediction of future, KC subconsciously does so".
In other words, "prediction of future" does play a significant role in KC's stock picking.
In a nutshell, "KC relies heavily on past performance of PLCs to guide his investment decisions".
Thanks Icon8888 again for the kind words here, and also your encouragement for others to join my investment course.
Investing is about the future, not the past
I have been emphasizing the statement above to all my online course participants, again and again. However, I have been criticized again and again each time I talk about value investing using ROE. ROIC, PE, EV/Ebit, cash flows, free cash flows etc.
Who does investing for the past, and not the future, or rather the present, as the future is uncertain and unpredictable? Aren’t your earnings growth projection in Canone above also based on the present?
I certainly believe that a company with steady earnings, stable cash flows, high return on capitals over a long period of time must have shown that the business is likely to last a long time and the existing management must have done something right. This is in comparison with looking at a good earnings growth for a quarter or two and project the same high growth for the future. Haven’t we seen the research on predicting future earnings carried out by Dresdner Kleinwort Macro Research above?
Isn’t considering buying a good company with the good attributes above at low prices such as PE ratio, Enterprise value/Ebit, or whatever metrics plausible for good future returns, better than predicting from good results of a quarter or two?
In a stock pick article on Padini where I used dividend discount Model to get an estimate intrinsic value of Padini and compared with its share price to obtain the margin of safety below,
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/85828.jsp
I was basing on its present dividend payment and project a conservative growth in dividends in the future. I have explained why future dividend is usually more predictable than the obscure earnings growth projection in the article. The past growth in dividend did show the steady and more predictable growth and there are plausible reasons why it should be in the future as explained in the article.
Valuation using dividend discount model, or free cash flows model in finance is forward looking. It may use the present as a guide, but is not about the past. All investment is about the future, not the past.
Conclusion
So which is a better predictor of future return, future earnings projection base on a quarter’s result, or return on capital and estimating of the intrinsic value of the stock and buys at a high margin of safety?
Everyone’s experience is different. I have shown predicting future earnings has not been proven dependable.
I have also shown in my previous article the evidence of the later, and also my own personal investing experience that the latter works very well as shown in the links below:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/98599.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/98798.jsp
As suggested by Icon in his latest article, “Predicting future earnings”, if you are interested to learn about how to carry out thorough analysis for a predictable way of earnings reasonable returns with the safety of principal for a small fee, please contact me at
ckc14invest@gmail.com
The course will start soon.
“If protecting and growing your assets is more urgent to you than ever, don’t settle for stories. Settle for hard analysis.”
KC Chong
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Discussions
9 people like this. Showing 50 of 71 comments
Truth be told, snake oil sellers have been around even longer than the stock market. You get that every where, stock market no exception.
Now, lets talk about stock market. If one takes a business man approach to this venture, you would not be worse off than one armed with 20 formulas and 5 valuation methods applying them blindly.
At the end of the day, we are talking about financial intelligence. So, what is financial intelligence?
Are we born with F1? Do we wake up one morning and find we are equipped with FI? Can FI be developed? Can FI be trained? Get educated by FI stuffs?
It goes without saying people learn stuffs, experience stuffs, and can benefit from our experiences.
FI is an asset that can be developed, trained, experienced
the 20 formulas and 5 valuation methods applying blindly without thinking do not increase one's FI.....it only serves to stifle and stop the development of FI.
Only questioning and curiousity and asking the right questions can cause a people to learn and develop his FI.
At the end of the day, taking a business man approach to the stock market is not a bad idea at all....and he probably have no need for the 20 formulas and 5 valuation methods.......these valuation methods are like the tail wagging the dog. They can be made to justify any ridiculous proposition. Small tweets in some assumptions produce major changes in the end results. Its the tail wagging the dog.
2016-06-27 18:47
Instead of predicting growth
Why not predicting bubble burst?
And it is safer of all analysis because when the bubble burst, there will be new analysis coming out too
2016-06-27 18:52
Bubble burst happens every 7-10 years, best investing duration is within 1 to 4 years after bubble burst, after the 4th years, risk increase exponentially, time to cash out and wait the bubble to pop.
2016-06-27 18:56
This argument is getting dumber and dumber. A poor business will not result in a good FA. FA will indicate whether a company has a moat, and that moat will come from some qualitative aspect of BA. Both are the consequence of each other. FA is BA and vice versa. What's this nonsense about FA is not BA?
2016-06-27 19:01
Stockman has gift of the gap for instigating people...without any logic gates in his god gifted 'biological software'.
2016-06-27 19:09
dunber and dumber is the flocks who pray to FA gods without knowing what is business analysis and good stock picks.
2016-06-27 20:09
dumber and dumber is the one who uses FA to screen his stocks and manages to pick all the ducks and become first from last in i3 competition.
2016-06-27 20:10
dumber and dumber is the one who uses FA to screen his stocks and manages to pick all the ducks and become first from last in i3 competition.
would picks using darts be better?
2016-06-27 20:11
anyway...good to have you stockman...you can initiate a lot of discussions...at least 'some' will benefit. apologize for my comments earlier (seriously)..
a lot of people don't seem to know what is FA and especially BA...could u please elaborate what you have understood about FA?
surely people will gain from having opinions from different perspective...including me
2016-06-27 20:18
Wao. So happening here.
Look like here got free evening class for me... I bet to learn something tonigh.
2016-06-27 20:21
it does shows the limitations of FA, of using FA blindly , of using FA without BA, of using FA without common sense.....taking the formulas to extremes without understanding the underlying factors.
probability > Jun 27, 2016 08:18 PM | Report Abuse
anyway...good to have you stockman.
2016-06-27 20:27
No, noneed waste time on low life conman icon8888.
Ask ppl buy comcorp at high and he selling.
2016-06-27 20:28
Ah plane..
Why midnight still bite Icon never release? Owe money is it?
2016-06-27 20:34
Dear Kc chong,
Dear Icon8888,
Dear stockmanny,
Dear paper plane
Dear flyingkite
Dear probability
Dear all..
Dedicate this to share with you. Enjoy https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=O9Vf6pDHax0
2016-06-27 21:25
Duit Good One.
But I watched the similar performance by China Talent show before, few years back.
2016-06-27 21:32
Thanks KC. Poor to those people who keep bad mouth but earn nothing in stock market.
2016-06-28 12:56
Investing is about the future, not the past, stupid! kcchongnz....
Sometime the pro sound crazy already. Too crazy that they fly too high and forget the ground is where they are standing.
2016-06-28 17:43
Investing is investing in yourself. Stupid. Money don't drop down from the sky freely. Warren Buffett quote: If you are stupid yourself the world will always look flat to you all the time, whether it is yesterday or in the future.
2016-06-29 11:02
Posted by sostupid > Jun 29, 2016 11:02 AM | Report Abuse
Investing is investing in yourself. Stupid. Money don't drop down from the sky freely. Warren Buffett quote: If you are stupid yourself the world will always look flat to you all the time, whether it is yesterday or in the future.
First time fully agree with you.
Read, read read. Learn, learn, and learn. Practice, practice and practice.
There ain't no tooth fairy in Bursa, Idiot!
Investing is the same.
Without the necessary knowledge and experience, how do you know a stock is good to invest in?
Without knowledge and experience, how can one earn extra-ordinary return from the stock market?
Without the necessary knowledge and experience, how can you beat the big boys in the stock market playing in their field?
2016-06-29 11:31
its a special kind of people to go around collecting fees for investment advice...especially the unlicensed and unqualified ones.
thick skin, ability to create own reality.
in a bull market, every promoter is a genius, in a bear market every promoter is the cause of people suffering ruins.
why want to cari market in this way?
for every 10 people that you help to make some pocket money, even if just one go into financial ruins because of you, it is very bad karma.
the point is.............
people never over trade , never go into financial ruins unless it is because of tips from other people who claims to have impeccable track records.
trading based on other people tips frees one from responsibility. encourages over trading, reckless risk taking....it is the primary cause of financial ruins.
why take this responsibility just to cari market?
thick skin, ability to create own reality.
blogging without collecting fees is different. Blogging is very democratic and encourages independence
"Final decision is yours but you must trust me because I am worth millions and you are not worth a sen" is the cause of many financial ruins and perhaps even family breakups. Very bad karma.
2016-06-29 11:34
In any investment,it is essential to have past records of success to ascertain its successful past performance.There we can check its record of growth and whether it has reached its optimun growth or saturation point.If it hasn't then we can look into the future for further growth and expansion.
This is what Icon888 talking about And what is lacking in kcchongz is his ommission in checking its future growth,hence he can also pay some attention on that then he is as good in fa.But in stock market,we need combination of fa,charting skills and economic foresight to read the impacts of enviromental economic changes or events to be proficient in investment.
2016-06-29 11:48
I would like to defend KC Chong
It is true that KC charged forum members a fee for his lessons. However,
(a) The fee is very small. It is good value for money. Since his students did not lose out, why should we complain ?
(b) Dispensing advice and knowledge is something that has been done in this world for thousand of years. Teachers, lecturers, trainers, they all get paid for doing that. The only different between KC and them is that KC does it online. If we did not condemn teachers for making a living through sharing knowledge, why should we single out KC Chong ?
(c) We are not living in a communist country. Communism sees money as evil (even that view is outdated, modern China loves money). We should NOT have an attitude that if other people makes money, it is bad (and only freebies are good).
(d) If KC does not collect a fee, he will not be coaching his students with such attention, care and details. Without money, there is no "high quality service".
Let KC does what he is doing now. Many people learn though his courses. We should support him, not stifle his effort.
It is my objective view, not politicking.
If one day stockmanmy starts an online course, I will support him as much as I support KC Chong
(as for me, I am not starting one, I am too lazy and not knowledgeable enough)
================
Posted by stockmanmy > Jun 29, 2016 11:34 AM | Report Abuse
its a special kind of people to go around collecting fees for investment advice...especially the unlicensed and unqualified ones.
thick skin, ability to create own reality.
in a bull market, every promoter is a genius, in a bear market every promoter is the cause of people suffering ruins.
why want to cari market in this way?
for every 10 people that you help to make some pocket money, even if just one go into financial ruins because of you, it is very bad karma.
the point is.............
people never over trade , never go into financial ruins unless it is because of tips from other people who claims to have impeccable track records.
trading based on other people tips frees one from responsibility. encourages over trading, reckless risk taking....it is the primary cause of financial ruins.
why take this responsibility just to cari market?
thick skin, ability to create own reality.
blogging without collecting fees is different. Blogging is very democratic and encourages independence
"Final decision is yours but you must trust me because I am worth millions and you are not worth a sen" is the cause of many financial ruins and perhaps even family breakups. Very bad karma.
2016-06-29 11:52
The 4 simple guidelines for buying any kind of stocks:
(1)Only if you can do something important for other people, the other party will do something you like for you back in return.
(2) Only if you can do something necessary for other people, the other party will do something that is important for you back in return.
(3) Only if you can do something people like, the other party will do something that is necessary for you back in return.
(4) Always buy a stock only when you can determine whether the stock is doing something important now, necessary in the future, and can do something or what other people like in the past for other people and not for you.
2016-06-29 11:54
wei...sostupid...this one sound very much like 'competitive advantage' lor...u learning very fast!
2016-06-29 12:02
Sostupid,what you say is only guess work which no references of proven records only proposals of surveys.
2016-06-29 12:04
Fam...there are strategies that requires continuous development...coz it evolves...based on changes on human information processing characteristics with time... especially things like TA
can't imagine when AI gets involved on TA...with fast trading with thin profit margin mechanism.
humans will be more like a jockey on different 'horses of AI'..
it then depends on your horse-software version.
2016-06-29 12:10
how come Buffett and Peter Lynch never use TA ?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH ! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH ! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH !
2016-06-29 12:12
I believe many people misunderstand the real KC (even KC himself)
it is true KC very seldom write about "the future"
however, in real life, he does factor in the future when he picks stocks
if you don't believe me, you look at the timing of his stock picks : Scientex, Thong Guan (you will get this stock if you subscribe for his course), Homeritz, Magni, etc... all are picked when the companies' profit are going strong and various operational details (capex, etc) point to a future whereby earning will grow
The only weird thing is that he doesn't like to talk about it or acknowledge it (even though it is in his heart).
That is the observation and conclusion I arrived at after studying his articles, discussions and portfolio.
Many people didn't notice this point
I welcome people to prove my view incorrect, including KC himself
=====
Fam Jenny
... And what is lacking in kcchongz is his ommission in checking its future growth,hence he can also pay some attention on that then he is as good in fa.
29/06/2016 11:48
2016-06-29 12:13
I judge a man by his gender and DNA report which is totally different from judging a tilapia fish
2016-06-29 12:18
Leno,do you think you are clever by earning money through deceit?In insas,you were shouting RM2/- but it never reached,so you dumped to others at RM1.26 and ran off.
2016-06-29 12:48
God judges you according to your love of righteousness through your good deeds and motives.I will follow His righteous,fair ways.
2016-06-29 12:51
People should rid themselves from cheating, deceiving and twisting .... FJ ... thy shall repent from all these ... amitabha ... sinchoi sinchoi ...
2016-06-29 12:52
Waren Buffet has all the experts to help and how can he doesn't use fa ta and others.
2016-06-29 12:55
It would be really interesting for me...to find someone who can prove a strategy of investment and making extraordinary gains while holding on to his investment for more than a year. I mean...its a like a strategy based on long term forecasting ability...
If it is short term , say based on forecasting ability of near term Earnings expansion....and then exiting fast within a year before the Earnings goes back below its initial value...then its merely about tapping the potential gain arising out of over reactive nature of investors who are less informed temporarily.
The above is almost like TA....tapping gains from weakness of humans psychology...which i trust will be evolving with time (though may be very slow) but only provides the edge for the 'active' investors as mentioned by Soojinhou earlier.
2016-06-29 14:23
leno...first time I see u coming with 'almost' a logical argument...
Exactly...if someone promote all this strategy claiming that its without any benefit for him...then we really have to open our eyes wide wide..and think carefully. (careful of the bloggers!)
But...if its for a fee...like tuition teacher...may be OK lor..
2016-06-29 15:33
However, we must thank bloggers like Icon who comes with opportunities for one to accumulate before the price shoots up...unlike Mr. Bones who only give you the bones obviously after taking the flesh...
2016-06-29 15:45
Probabiliy,if you study public bank from its early days and have look into its growth,with one thousand shares it multiples into many shares worth a Rm1million over a period of 30 years.
2016-06-29 15:49
I got BIG FOUR analysis parameter. FA TA CA and HA.
Two come first:
FA- Fundamental analysis
TA- Technical analysis
Two come later after the above A:
CA- Confident analysis
HA- Hope analysis
Sure win technique!!
2016-06-29 15:52
Leno,your stupid/wayward brain tells you that a criminal/drugpin is also very smart bcos he makes a lot of money from drugs,that's how your useless mentality thinks so.
2016-06-29 15:52
wished my father worked in public bank as a clerk and saved a thousand for me on public bank before I was born :(
unfortunately he is a great chemist with zero business knowledge or businessman contacts.
2016-06-29 15:56
i think i am in love with you leno, even though i suspect you are a guy too... haha... ur "Boh Chow CCCC AAA" is simply too epic... haha
2016-07-05 14:11
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Icon8888
Anyway paperplane is such a vicious person, I don't see what is the pint of being so hero ? If you are so full of integrity, u would have said something when he behaved so rudely this morning. Where were you this morning ? Please lah
2016-06-27 18:46