Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2023-02-28 13:20 | Report Abuse

Lee, you should read latest annual letter from Berkshire. He writes that instead of looking at the emotional swings of share market, look at the tangibles and operational earnings of the companies you own. When you look at operations it paints a clear picture. Be a business picker, not a stock picker. That should let you know why pchem is able to 28 billion revenue on 4 billion earnings a year on 12 billion in manufacturing assets and cash pile

>>>>>
Sslee

3iii,
Have you sold your Dutchlady? Dutchlady can never compete with Nestle.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2023-02-28 13:31 | Report Abuse

No need to go so far Bob the mailman. Just look at my 4 year portfolio. I bought Topglove far far longer and earlier than many here and made good money from it. I then used it to buy pchem at all time low below 5( 4.19 to be exact), and yes I lost 5% of my portfolio on serba, but balanced by the same trade in knower and scib with the warrants and shares sales. I am also down a lot in hartalega which I paid 2017 prices for to see it go even lower. But overall I turned a 28 into 50+ million portfolio. Imaginary? Sure thing kid. Sure thing.

I wonder if you did half a well, even with your imagination turned 100x up

>>>>>>
What Ole Phil is saying is that Investments and Returns/profits should not be recorded on a linear basis as you go along, even for long term range.

He wants us to time travel to 30 years in the future and then he asks and boasts of how he made Trillions based on investments made 30 years back! I'm sure many of us would not be still around here.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-02-28 15:59 | Report Abuse

When you SHOULD NOT sell
By themselves, share-price movements convey no useful information, especially becasue prices can move in all sorts of directions in the short term for completely unfathomable reasons. The long-run performance of stocks is largely based on the EXPECTED FUTURE CASH FLOWS of the companies attached to them - it has very little to do with what the stocmk did over the past week or month.


The Stock Has Dropped

Always keep in mind that it does't matter what a stock has done since you bought it. There's nothing you can do to change the past, and the market cares not one whit whether you have made or lost money on the stock. Other market participants - the folks setting the price of the stock - are looking to the future, and that's exactly what you should do when you're deciding to sell a stock.

The Stock Has Skyrocketed

Again, it matters little how those stocks have done in the past - what's important is how you expect the company to do in the future. There's not a PRIORI reason for stocks that are up substantially to drop, just as there's no reason for stocks that have tanked to "have to come back eventually." Most of us would be better investors if we could just block out all those graphs of past stock performance because they convey no useful information about the future.

>>>>

Company X (US).
For illustration purpose only.


Trailing returns.%

1 day. (1.12)
1wk. (2.76)
1mth (6.66)
3mth (11.25)
YTD (11.07)
1 yr 1.49
3 yr 4.97
5 yr 6.04
10 yr 9.63
15 yr 8.05


What lessons can you derive from these data?
From the perspective of a short term investor.
From the perspective of a long term investor.


The latest newsletter of Berkshire Hathaway is extremely good. Warren Buffett shares his long term 80 years investing journey.

>>>

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-02-28 16:09 | Report Abuse

>>>>>
Sslee

3iii,
Have you sold your Dutchlady? Dutchlady can never compete with Nestle.

>>>>



Selling is often a harder decision than buying

"If you have bought a good quality stock at bargain or reasonable price, you can often hold forever."

Investing is fun. For every rule, there is always an exception.

The main reasons for selling a stock are:

1. When the fundamental has deteriorated permanently, (Sell urgently)
2. When it is overpriced, whereby the upside gain will be unlikely or very small and the downside loss will be big or certain.


So when should you sell?
Here are the five questions you should run through whenever you think about selling a stock, and you'll be in good shape.

Did you make a mistake?
Have the fundamental deteriorated?
Has the stock risen too far above its intrinsic value?
Is there something better you can do with the money?
Do you have too much money in one stock?

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-03-01 08:26 | Report Abuse

DLady versus Nestle


SSLee prefers Nestle to DLady. Just like the way he thinks.

Let us look at these 2 stocks from the mid 1990s. For those who hold these 2 stocks from then to now, the total returns from both stocks have been superlative. These returns are superlative even though DLady has dropped from 65 to 30 the last 2 years and Nestle has dropped from its highest price of 165 to present 130. Note, the long term hold for almost 30 years.

Well, I know of many who own Nestle and DLady too. One got ESOS. every time the Nestle share was up by 10 to 20%, he sold. Though working in the company, he does not own any of the shares long term. In the early 2000, Nestle shares stagnated. There was not much growth in the company. Nestle wasn’t investing into the company. On the other hand, DLady was doing a lot better. It’s growth was better and it’s returns eclipsed that of Nestle by a large amount. My friend advised, he bought DLady in preference to Nestle. In fact, he advised sincerely to sell Nestle and parked the money in DLady.

Nestle started to grow is business when it identified Malaysia for its halal hub. Soon it invested more into its business.

The price of Nestle climbed fast the last 5 years. When it’s price rose to 80, another friend who owned Nestle shared the price of Nestle was too overvalued by his assessment. He sold. A few short months later, Nestle price shot up to 163. Yes, today, it has corrected over the last 2 years to 130.


Can you teach us how to capture the long term gains (an assumption you need not have to agree with) of these stocks or companies?

How good are you in selling at the top of a price chart?
How good are you at buying at the depth of a price chart?
How good are you in selling at the high and buying back the SAME stock at the low in your real life investing?
How certain are you in selling at the high and able to buy back the SAME stock at lower price, but find the price never dropped low enough or below your selling price?


LOOK FOR BROKEN STOCKS, NOT BROKEN COMPANY. (Jim Cramer)

Posted by Sslee > 2023-03-01 08:38 | Report Abuse

3iii,
Any reason why Dlady did not growth and did badly for the past 5 years?

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-03-01 09:15 | Report Abuse

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test
Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-03-01 10:17 | Report Abuse

Though market conditions are easy to see in hindsight; they are, according to Security Analysis, almost impossible to predict in the near or distant future:

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-03-01 11:20 | Report Abuse

>>>>
Well, I know of many who own Nestle and DLady too. One got ESOS. every time the Nestle share was up by 10 to 20%, he sold. Though working in the company, he does not own any of the shares long term.
>>>>
I opine this friend was not knowledgeable in shares. He was extremely risk averse. Just fear he will lose money in stock. At the earliest profit, he sold to pocket the gains. All his Nestle shares were disposed below $20s which were the prices during that period. What he needed was perhaps some education and guidance.


>>>In the early 2000, Nestle shares stagnated. There was not much growth in the company. Nestle wasn’t investing into the company. On the other hand, DLady was doing a lot better. It’s growth was better and it’s returns eclipsed that of Nestle by a large amount. My friend advised, he bought DLady in preference to Nestle. In fact, he advised sincerely to sell Nestle and parked the money in DLady.>>>>

This friend was right during that period. DLady performed so much more than Nestle. In fact, it was painful to be stuck in Nestle during that period. But then, one was still receiving dividends from Nestle consistenly. Another reason for not selling Nestle was DLady was alreaddy in my portfolio too at that time.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-03-02 09:05 | Report Abuse

HEIM

28.72 per share

HEIM Financial Information
Market Capital (RM)
: 8.676b
Number of Share
: 302.10m
EPS (cent)
: 136.65 *
P/E Ratio
: 21.02
ROE (%)
: 84.35
TTM Profit Margin (%)
: 14.5
CAGR - Revenue (%)
: 8.2
CAGR - PAT (%)
: 8.9
Dividend (cent)
: 81.000 ^
Dividend Yield (%)
: 2.82
NTA (RM)
: 1.620
P/B Ratio
: 17.73




FY 2022

PBT 594 m
Net CFO 488 m
Capex 193 m
FCF 295 m

Dividend paid 320 m

FCF yield 3.4%






Bought Heim ( Guinness) many years ago for just below RM6. For first 10 years, its share price was below my buying price. At the 10th year or so, its share price was at my buying price. However, due to its very high DY of 8% or thereabout, when its price was at my buying price, taking dividends into account, this stock had returned 100% at that point.

Today, its DPS is 81 sen. At buying price of about RM6, this is a DY of 13.5% based on historical cost.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-03-08 06:39 | Report Abuse

The toxic obsession with fair value

Value investors and aspiring value investors are familiar with or will come across the idea of fair value. Fair value is a price (or range of prices) a company is worth. The most common method to derive this number is calculating how much money a company will make for the rest of its life and then adjusting that money for inflation. And investors — retail and professionals alike — are constantly trying to figure out this number.

While the concept of fair value is undoubtedly useful, not just in investing but in life as a whole, I find that it ironically can blind investors and prevent them from compounding their money.

By focusing on fair value, we overly obsess with a "buy" price and a "sell" price. In doing so, we miss the point of what investing is: owning a business so you can sit back while the company makes money for you. Selling a stock, even if it has doubled or tripled in price, also prevents you from compounding your money.

If the business is still making money or, better yet, even more money than when you initially bought it, why would you sell it and forego all the profits the business can generate for you just because its stock price went up?

Of course, selling it might be a good idea if the business is unable to generate significant profits in the future because of steeper competition or changing consumer preferences. But if this isn’t the case, you should not only not sell the business but continue to own more of it. This is why Warren Buffett has repeatedly said it is “far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price” and that his favorite holding period is forever.

Posted by Sslee > 2023-03-08 07:20 | Report Abuse

I had worked for MNC and owner run business. The different with MNC and Owner run business is ownership where in MNC all are employees and thus behave like employee and the CEO will sell or buy busiiness base on which business will give the fastest and highest return on capital.

On the other hand an owner/family run business, the owner will try to keep the business forever and if fortunately the owner is capable and visionary then the business will expand and flourish but if the owner is just a playboy type then most likely the business will be stangnant and facing the slow decline. All is not lost, if the owner realise his own lack of capability and prepare to hire a capable professional CEO then who know the owner owned business might turn into an MNC.

So as retail investor you are competing with professional fund managers in trying to make money from the market. The fund managers have vast pool of money and analysts to keep watch on their investment 24/7/365 and they will act fast without hesitation, emotion and mercy (exception TTB run Icap). So as retail investor what is your odd compare to those fund mangers.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2023-03-08 08:00 | Report Abuse

LOL..........but have you worked for GLCs and NGOs???

Posted by Sslee > 2023-03-08 08:32 | Report Abuse

In GLC everyone act and behave like they are the boss. So nothing get done but at the end of month still got pay and bonus at the end of year.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2023-03-08 09:03 | Report Abuse

You're getting the idea right.

Family owned business and MNC still have some protocol in place........GLC and NGO is like spending unlimited funds......since there is nothing to answer to. Here one day, unappreciated and gone the next.

Some would drill 10 holes and hope to be sacked, then live happily ever after.

Wink wink!

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2023-03-09 08:39 | Report Abuse

What kind of comment is this? Are you trying to compare with someone who bought the stock 10+ years ago and hold until today? He has had amazing gains on his returns, why would you try to bring it down like a little kid comparing crayons in kindergarten? If you want to compare, you should compare against your longest held stock ( insas) which you have held for a long time in large volume. How are your long term returns in comparison?

>>>>>
Sslee

3iii,
Have you sold your Dutchlady? Dutchlady can never compete with Nestle.

Posted by Sslee > 2023-03-09 08:52 | Report Abuse

Good morning Philip,
I am just trying to ask 3iii a question to test whether he talk the talk and walk the walk?

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > Mar 1, 2023 9:15 AM | Report Abuse

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test
Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Posted by Sslee > 2023-03-09 08:56 | Report Abuse

So Philip, should you buy more Harta and Pchem?

Posted by Sslee > 2023-03-09 08:57 | Report Abuse

For me I can't buy anymore Insas because it will cause a portfolio imbalance to do so.

Posted by i3gambler > 2023-03-09 14:56 | Report Abuse

Look at Philip's portfolio, I explore YINSON-WA.
1) Check YINSON target prices here in i3.
2) Calculate YINSON historical volatility.
3) Check YINSON dividend yield.
4) Use 200 steps Binomial Method to calculate YINSON-WA fair value.

Then I bought some YINSON-WA at 0.665 before lunch just now.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2023-03-10 23:08 | Report Abuse

What does portfolio imbalance mean?

>>>>>>>Sslee

For me I can't buy anymore Insas because it will cause a portfolio imbalance to do so.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2023-03-10 23:11 | Report Abuse

The obvious answer to this is to look to the next qr report to decide what to do. I am content with my kernel of ownership, and not cheap enough for me to dip into my margin further to buy.
>>>>>>>
Sslee

So Philip, should you buy more Harta and Pchem?

Posted by Sslee > 2023-03-11 10:20 | Report Abuse

Good morning Philip,
It just mean not to put all eggs in one basket.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2023-03-18 07:37 | Report Abuse

I believe that is the core difference between us. 99% of my wealth is in equities, all my eggs in one basket. But since it is my occupation, my passion and something I spend much time trying to understand on a daily basis, I think it is far less riskier than " diversifying" into things I know nothing about.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2023-03-18 08:19 | Report Abuse

Why buy? I received my warrants for free.

>>>>>>
i3gambler

Look at Philip's portfolio, I explore YINSON-WA.
1) Check YINSON target prices here in i3.
2) Calculate YINSON historical volatility.
3) Check YINSON dividend yield.
4) Use 200 steps Binomial Method to calculate YINSON-WA fair value.

Then I bought some YINSON-WA at 0.665 before lunch just now

Posted by Sslee > 2023-03-18 09:04 | Report Abuse

Good morning Philip,
Same same, I received my Insas-WC for free and then sold all the WC to top up Insas. (Most likely is a mistake)

I treat investment in equity just as a hobby with the aim of earning RM 100K+ yearly dividend while waiting for share price appreciation. My biggest investment is on my children education and now helping them to buy property and start their own family.

Posted by CharlesT > 2023-03-18 11:20 | Report Abuse

If u place RM1.5M in consistent div stocks (say Maybank) with ard 7% div yield u can achieve RM100k div a year easily

Posted by CharlesT > 2023-03-18 11:34 | Report Abuse

Posted by OTB > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Posted by CharlesT > 24 minutes ago | Report Abuse

In stock mkt difficult to tell one, better learn fm OTB...make money then buy more properties n place money in PBB Bond funds

Only keep some of yr money (say 20% to 30%) in stock mkt.

Even u lose 100% of it u still can always come to I3 to talk coxk
--------------
1.) I did that because I came from a very poor family, I experienced "no rice to eat' phenomenon during my childhood.
2.) I made my first million in 1993 when I became a remisier, I lost all my commissions and profits in 1997/8 stock market crash. I was nearly a bankrupt.
3.) I need to take up 3 jobs a day in order to come back to investing again. I became a trainer for T3B in KL and Hong Kong for 3 years on top of a remisier job.
4.) I started to make back all my money lost after I performed very well in 2013/4/5 after I met Mr Koon.
5.) I do not want to be a poor man again in my last part of my life. I bought all my properties using join names with my wife. I told my wife that I cannot sell these properties, I told her to refuse to sign S&P agreement if I lost back all my money in the stock market.
6.) I am quite sure now that I cannot lose in the stock market until bankrupt.
Thank you.

Posted by CharlesT > 2023-03-18 11:42 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Jun 7, 2020 8:29 AM | Report Abuse

I'll just wait until your next big loss for you to disappear from i3investor again. Gamblers like you win 200% one day and lose 100% the next.

In stock mkt difficult to tell one, one day u make another day u lose, now u see now u dont

Anyway, thanks for Philip's above kind warnings 3 years ago. Some of my funds r in safe hands now.

Posted by Sslee > 2023-03-18 11:58 | Report Abuse

CharlesT is trying to tell Philip on Philip's "99% of my wealth is in equities, all my eggs in one basket"

"In stock mkt difficult to tell one, one day u make another day u lose, now u see now u dont"

Hope Philip don't use margin finance to average down too often, who know case like Credit Suisse might happen to any stocks.

Posted by CharlesT > 2023-03-18 12:15 | Report Abuse

I m telling to myself lah...who cares about Philip...

He got rich wife to worry about him

Posted by OTB > 2023-03-18 14:48 | Report Abuse

I believe KLSE is low enough for us to start buying.
Let us focus on the sector that can outperform the market.
I believe Harta is a good buy now.
I have started to withdraw my FD that are due to invest in KLSE.
I intend to focus on stocks that can grow in a bit longer term to win big.
I am not interested in short term trading, very difficult to manage due to volatile market condition.
Easier to buy and hold good growth stocks.
You can find many good fundamental stocks to buy now.
Thank you.

Posted by qqq47660 > 2023-03-18 15:09 | Report Abuse

OTB > 20 minutes ago | Report Abuse

I believe KLSE is low enough for us to start buying.

=======


buy with your backside?

Posted by OTB > 2023-03-18 15:17 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by OTB > 2023-03-18 15:18 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq47660 > 2023-03-18 15:37 | Report Abuse

otb, u got to cut lost before u can buy stuffs.................................true.

Posted by OTB > 2023-03-18 15:52 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq47660 > 2023-03-18 17:01 | Report Abuse

your cash all stuck is loss making shares already, otb.

Posted by qqq47660 > 2023-03-18 17:23 | Report Abuse

all crooks, plenty of crooks.

Posted by PureBULL ... > 2023-03-18 17:36 | Report Abuse

.,.

Banking CRISIS happens once in 10 to 12 years cycle.,.
HUGE banks go to ZERO in the u.s. n oso abt to in europar.

AAX is the great winning stocks in the last 2 weeks.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pOKFBpLv/

We all do so so much of research.,.

THE KEY:
WHAT's the next great stocks soon, like AAX on KLSE?

Posted by OTB > 2023-03-18 17:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by klee > 2023-03-18 17:55 | Report Abuse

Purebull shit.Ppl went into aax since 1.00 n you only noticed now ka.A1 stocks my ass.As i said,you hv no fundamental background and is totally clueless.

Posted by klee > 2023-03-18 18:00 | Report Abuse

OTB is hundred times better than purebull shit.

OTB > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

I believe KLSE is low enough for us to start buying.
Let us focus on the sector that can outperform the market.
I believe Harta is a good buy now.
I have started to withdraw my FD that are due to invest in KLSE.
I intend to focus on stocks that can grow in a bit longer term to win big.
I am not interested in short term trading, very difficult to manage due to volatile market condition.
Easier to buy and hold good growth stocks.
You can find many good fundamental stocks to buy now.
Thank you.

Posted by OTB > 2023-03-18 18:15 | Report Abuse

The low of FBMKLCI is 1,373.
When this level is hit, it is a double bottom.
I will start to buy the stocks I like and those I missed out in the last few months.

I bought AAX around 1.00 when I read the article posted by someone in I3.
I do not blame any sifu, I studied the stock recommended in great details.
If I think is good, I will just buy it.
I buy good fundamental and growth stocks, no exception.

Posted by OTB > 2023-03-18 18:18 | Report Abuse

I measure my performance is the amount of money I made in the stock market.
I do not measure my performance on the amount of bullshits in I3.
I am only interested that my bank account is growing every year.

Posted by klee > 2023-03-18 18:28 | Report Abuse

Purebull shit.No one knows you in i3.You are just a load of bullshit.Fcuk off.

Posted by OTB > 2023-03-18 18:29 | Report Abuse

I do not want to lose out to anyone.
I spend many good hours on research, I do not simply assume.
I buy the best fundamental and growth stocks.
I do not want to listen to anyone unless he is better than me in term of amount of money to make from KLSE.
Buying strictly on TA will not work, I have experienced it in the last 30 years.
I only learn from any sifu who can make the most money in the shortest time.
He/she is my hero sifu I want to learn from.

Posted by klee > 2023-03-18 18:30 | Report Abuse

OTB.You are tested n proven.Hats off to you.What is one bad yr out of 10 good ones.

Posted by OTB > 2023-03-18 18:31 | Report Abuse

I am a honest person, I just do not want to tell lies in I3.
I said it out honestly here.
Up to you to believe it.
Thank you.

Posted by klee > 2023-03-18 18:32 |

Post removed.Why?