Posted by value88 > 2019-06-30 21:25 | Report Abuse

Armada carries #1 weightage in my portfolio now. I have accumulated enough.
It's stock price came down since last 2H2018 due to people worried about its balance sheet, and some even said it would go to PN17.
Presently, the short term debt problem has gone away but it's stock price remains depressed. Isn't this a perfect opportunity to buy ?

Posted by value88 > 2019-06-30 21:29 | Report Abuse

The Jan-Mar'19 quarterly result showed Armada turned around from loss to profitability. But, it's stock price remains depressed. And, people still talking about the potential of right issue when it secured new FPSO project, albeit management has repeatedly mentioned Armada not considering right issue exercise.

Posted by value88 > 2019-06-30 21:34 | Report Abuse

The main problem for Armada's depressed stock price is the loss of market's confident. I suppose the only way for Armada to regain that confidence is to show positive earnings in next few quarters.
I am not certain if next Q's earnings can be positive, but I can see that Armada is on track for recovery. It's stock price will follow in tandem sooner or later.

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-06-30 21:47 | Report Abuse

everybody else are stupid

you are the best.

Icon8888 is the wonderful sifu.

Hard to comment here when everything anyone says which is not music to your ears tends to have a sharp retort.

Then again, when someone has put money into the stock and writes an article, the last thing they want to hear is the voice of reason.

It is far easier to surround yourself with nodding heads and smiling voices saying what a brilliant investor you are!

So kudos icon8888, you really are the best at understanding numbers and making assumptions from financial reports. Love reading your articles. I'll just keep quiet and agree with your remarks and articles and skip over the few glaring errors in your article.

Yeah, good article icon8888, make it count. Don't waste all that effort with a small position, make it count!

Posted by stockraider > 2019-06-30 23:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by VenFx > 2019-07-01 00:26 | Report Abuse

I like icon8888 article title.
Best fit , what im looking for a gold in the bushes...hihi

Posted by VenFx > 2019-07-01 00:30 | Report Abuse

Great hard work from icon8888, i appreciate that. Tq

This type of gold in the bushes, always comes with disagreements.
However, thats the way to make a killing for.
As long as u plan ahead your level of risk appetite... its at century low .Why worry ?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-01 06:17 | Report Abuse

Armada is 25% of my equity. average 21.5..

nowadays I prefer to do what I preach, concentrated basis instead of spreading it around.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-01 06:42 | Report Abuse

I have previously made one round in Armada already....the 18 sen shares sold at 25...this is second round.

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-01 07:11 | Report Abuse

At least Icon8888 makes a good call and writes articles which invite discussion, unlike someone who dominates comments with long copy paste and nonsensical replies, the total reverse of cp teh.

In fact I do agree with Icon that kraken is the major overhang of armada, and when they get that fixed it will provide much clearer picture of their ability to buy only pay their debt, but also their ability to pare down the principal.

As for yinson being overvalued? They are the ONLY FPSO tenderer left for 2 back contracts ( others left due to not so strong financial strength), and are the stronger of 2 tenderers for Ghana greater pecan project. None of which invited bumi armada to quote.

I am confident YINSON will win all 3 and share price will go to rm10+.

When it does so, I will have my third 10 bagger stock out of 5.

Tell me again why I should listen to you who says dgsb doubled share price in one month, hengyuan go up to 35, sapura rm3?

One thing I can guarantee, armada will find difficulty in raising money from the institutions and banks with their performance. A cash call and rights issue from Bursa will be necessary and inevitable.

Whatever numbers posted up and beautiful stories written will not his this FACT.


>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jun 30, 2019 11:45 PM | Report Abuse

Enoughlah....Icon make a good call on Bumi Armada, but this Philip try to pour cold water loh...!!

Surely Bumi Armada Rm 0.215 and sapnrg Rm 0.30 should higher greater margin of safety than overvalue Philip shohai stock Yinson Rm 6.09 loh...!!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-01 07:49 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-01 07:55 | Report Abuse

going with quality is recommended for the masses.

contrarian plays requires higher level of experience., and risk taking.

Posted by OrlandoOIL > 2019-07-01 08:03 | Report Abuse

Both Armada n Yinson d risk is d same in oil prices too low

Cannot jz look inside must oso consider their customers' cost of production

Whn oil prices r too low not viable compared to cost of production d customers wil stop production n stop paying despite contract signed

Posted by OrlandoOIL > 2019-07-01 08:09 | Report Abuse

Oil prices r artificially controlled by OPEC+

Whn US economy weakened especially cls to election u can expect a tweek by Trump to complain oil prices too high not acceptable

Trump even want control d FED

Posted by OrlandoOIL > 2019-07-01 08:14 | Report Abuse

Offshore oil fields tat need to use FPSO tend to hv d highest cost

First to go

Posted by OrlandoOIL > 2019-07-01 08:15 | Report Abuse

Pathetic fallacy

Posted by OrlandoOIL > 2019-07-01 08:18 | Report Abuse

Not a good line of biz tis FPSO

Outsized capital cost n risk borne by Armada n Yinson

Posted by OrlandoOIL > 2019-07-01 08:19 | Report Abuse

Bear mind oil majors can go bankrupt

Quite common in fact

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-01 09:34 | Report Abuse

armada has the advantage of being a high volume share.

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2019-07-01 09:35 | Report Abuse

Sure or not Philip yinson will rise to Rm 10 . I want bought huge

Posted by VenFx > 2019-07-01 09:38 | Report Abuse

Yup , no doubt

But, Armada is way higher potential return.
So, balranded name yinson x 160% return
My casio calculator show armada x 335% in return

Wise peopples will know how to choose

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-01 10:36 | Report Abuse

Remember Armada is just a fallen angel, their ability to do business are intact loh....!!

Once armada turnaround and address the temporary hurdle it can fly loh....!!

Armada has a very good owner Ananda krishnan who have good management proven records loh....!!

Once they manage to reorganize their business model to much leaner structure profit will flow in and the bankers will clamour to lend monies to them loh....!!

Posted by InvestorKING > Jul 1, 2019 6:59 AM | Report Abuse

Based on the financial review of Armada with the latest addition of the 2 out of 3 GOOD NEWS, it was determined that (basically, nothing has changed from previously!) :-

PROOF – ARMADA REVENUES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE DEBT
PROOF - 14.25 YEARS TO FULLY SETTLE DEBT IF REVENUE STABLE FOREVER BUT ITS FIRM IS ONLY UP TO 6.5 YEARS!
PROOF - NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE INTEREST AND TAXES
PROOF – ARMADA CANNOT GET ANY MORE FINANCING

Armada’s ability to secure new contracts is likely to be 0%

PROOF - Armada has lost the momentum as a major player since 2014.
PROOF - Armada has been without a business development / sales team since 2014.
PROOF – Armada embroiled in various allegations from various countries including EU and INDONESIA.
PROOF – Armada’s strategic direction is uncertain due to controversies with its major shareholder.
PROOF – Armada’s behavior as a contractor has been one of litigation.
PROOF - You cannot bid for contracts if you do not have donor tankers.
PROOF – Armada’s recent FPSO is a lemon.

6.5 years to go or 27 Quarters to go. RM80 million net profit per Quarter optimistic assumption. That means RM2.1 billion in profits.

Rm20.5 billion confirmed sales for next 6.5 years. Actual operations profit from Rm20.5 billion is around Rm8.5 billion. Rm8.5 billion has to pay for everything under the Gross Profit line. And this doesn't include principle debt payments of Rm12.5 billion. Q results don't matter. And when oil industry recovers in 2030, Armada's assets are nearly 20 years old. End of life.

It is enough to pay off the RM13 billion debts (excluding interest)?

HOW TO MEET THE RM5.5 BILLION DEFICIT???

How much ADDITIONAL new revenue is needed for Armada?

=================================
Around RM13 billion in new sales / revenue.
=================================

Posted by ITreeinvestor > 2019-07-01 10:37 | Report Abuse

Hi Icon,

Wonder about your calculation of "Net Profit w/o impair", for example Dec 2018 the value of impairment is -1200 , net profit is -1263, how can net profit w/o impair is 34 instead of -63 ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-07-01 11:26 | Report Abuse

I am cleaning up. Will revert

==========

Hi Icon,

Wonder about your calculation of "Net Profit w/o impair", for example Dec 2018 the value of impairment is -1200 , net profit is -1263, how can net profit w/o impair is 34 instead of -63 ?
01/07/2019 10:37 AM

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-01 14:26 | Report Abuse

Finding costs and long term oil extraction costs are exactly what I use to measure the viability and the capability of a company to pay for fpso charters. A good example is ptsc with lam soon, where even though the force majeur occurred with China, petrovietnam still has to pay penalty clause to YINSON which pays for the ship conversion costs.

In either case oil prices just as everyone is worried too low it will recover. Just as when it was at all time high everyone thought the price will never go down anymore.


>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by OrlandoOIL > Jul 1, 2019 8:03 AM | Report Abuse

Both Armada n Yinson d risk is d same in oil prices too low

Cannot jz look inside must oso consider their customers' cost of production

Whn oil prices r too low not viable compared to cost of production d customers wil stop production n stop paying despite contract signed

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-07-01 14:47 | Report Abuse

sifu philips, UEM Edgenta good or not good ?

Posted by cheoky > 2019-07-01 14:51 | Report Abuse

money takes precedent over everything in i3. lolx.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-07-01 16:29 | Report Abuse

I would suggest against it.
====
Icon8888 sifu philips, UEM Edgenta good or not good ?
01/07/2019 2:47 PM

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-01 18:18 | Report Abuse

Yawn

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-01 18:21 | Report Abuse

A Not So Good Company Selling At Cheap Price Can Be A Good Buy




"It is better to buy a wonderful company at a good price than a good company at a wonderful price."

Avoid gruesome company.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-01 18:21 | Report Abuse

Yawn again.

zzzzzzz

Posted by smartinvestorbuffet > 2019-07-01 20:37 | Report Abuse

A lousy analysis. It is not that simple. Better put money into this stock here (https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/investsmartway/213065.jsp)!

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-07-01 20:40 | Report Abuse

I have updated the P&L table

===========

ITreeinvestor Hi Icon,

Wonder about your calculation of "Net Profit w/o impair", for example Dec 2018 the value of impairment is -1200 , net profit is -1263, how can net profit w/o impair is 34 instead of -63 ?
01/07/2019 10:37 AM

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-01 21:08 | Report Abuse

Finally, a wonderful stock to intro by Icon8888. Yes I am very familiar with Faber mediserve, which is in charge of all of sabah hospital facilities management. Today it is called sedafiat due to previous link with Musa Aman trying to take a share of the hospital management business, but in the end still need to work with uem group.

Uem sounds like a complex company, but in the end it is a simple system with a huge competitive advantage.

In healthcare management, doctors only know how to operate and treat, but daily operations has to be run by an efficient and well managed team or risk huge dangers to life. There is the building automation system for chiller and lighting, operating theater management with moidture and humidity control for infection, ro water systems, fire fighting systems, waste management systems etc. Very few companies can manage all aspects, and those that have the capability has to keep a diversified assortment of engineering and technical teams.

That is why uem can get jobs in Singapore, India, Indonesia etc because they already have a system in place to diagnose, improve and provide competitive bids.

The same team that knows how to manage the sewage waste plants for hospitals is also the same team that now management the sewage treatment plant for PLUS group.

Similar to George Kent which is a rail specialist, water specialist, uem is also a facilities management specialists. Ironic thing is, most political parties change and fight with each other on who gets the maintenance contract for road pavement, hospital management, infrastructure management etc, but in the end, they still need to work together with edgenta.

I like it. Good cash balance, very monopolistic business model, secure and dependable growing profits. You can always tell when you find it hard to find their competitor in the Bursa market.


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 1, 2019 2:47 PM | Report Abuse

sifu philips, UEM Edgenta good or not good ?

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-01 21:11 | Report Abuse

I was about to give up on icon8888, but he shows an ability to learn yet.

I am giving up on choivo, who advised against something without a concrete reason why offhand. Investors should keep an open mind, but need to be decisive when looking at business models and valuation.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Choivo Capital > Jul 1, 2019 4:29 PM | Report Abuse

I would suggest against it.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-07-01 21:19 | Report Abuse

Gkent is nothing but a crony (during Najib)

If you talk about it’s water meter business, can it beat China (your favourite argument) ? Even if it can, it is a Mature business with limited growth and scalability. Yawn....

As for rail expertise, it has none. Given enough resources, I can engage a German consultant to man my rail division. Then I can be the next Gkent.

In other words, anybody can be a gkent.

What is so great about gkent ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-07-01 21:23 | Report Abuse

Oooooh, so u like me buttering you.... that is what all these is about...

Anyway, thanks for your input about uem edgenta

My question was sincere

I like it too


Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > Jul 1, 2019 9:11 PM | Report Abuse

I was about to give up on icon8888, but he shows an ability to learn yet.

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-01 21:23 | Report Abuse

Investing is really about discipline and keeping to your core philosophies. My favorite example was when Warren was playing golf with friends and they wanted to put a friendly competition and gamble a few dollars. To their surprise Warren was very vehement on not gambling event a quarter. His explanation was he needed to keep his discipline in all things even the smallest of bets. He loved certainty above else, the lowest risk for the best reward.

Small things lead to bigger attitudes which end up with dangerous decisions.

My advice is to avoid gambling and already taking the road with the least risk to get the highest upside. Safety first.



>>>>>>>>>

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 1, 2019 7:49 AM | Report Abuse

Philips....share market, higher the risk assumed and proven right, higher the rewards.......meaning......if Armada continues to do well and no rights issue, this can be very rewarding..........

Armada 6 billion shares, no one is able to control its price., future events will determine its price.

unlike OTB shares where all u need is a syndicate who says go or not.

Posted by Tee Tom > 2019-07-01 21:37 | Report Abuse

Previously I also done a balance sheet checking by taken out the impairment. But the figure seem different. I need to check one by one to compare. I still new, most probably i was wrong. With your writing, i will able to verify my mistake. Tq

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-01 23:16 | Report Abuse

You can check out project wins in hong Kong and Singapore, where they have won the contracts to supply water meters for 4 years running. So yes it can beat China. As for mature business, if you understand non revenue water and smart meters, you will understand why this quarter they increased sales from water meters by a lot.

As for your German consultant etc etc, can you then explain to me why finance minister LGE awarded the 11.86 billion to gkent/mrcb?

The answer though is very simple. There are those who only know how to talk and talk, and there are those who have a proven track record in Malaysia of handing over and completing projects on schedule, within budget and with no problems to end user. George Kent also happens to be cash positive with excess 206 million ringgit in cash to capture more projects, unlike some companies which are working very hard but unable to pay off their debt interest much less the principal amount.

When you have an FPSO rated to produce 80k bpd buy only managed to output from 20k bpd to 33k bpd, then it is a bad sign.

Probably they need that German consultant instead.


>>>>>>>>


If you talk about it’s water meter business, can it beat China (your favourite argument) ? Even if it can, it is a Mature business with limited growth and scalability. Yawn....

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-01 23:23 | Report Abuse

Sadly, icon8888 still knows nothing about running a business. He thinks with enough resources and a German consultant, he can take over business. What a waste of an engineering degree, the purpose is to teach you to ask the right questions and discern answers.

If it was that simple, someone would have done it by now. Wouldn't you agree?

Armada made the same mistake by throwing resources and hiring not a German, but a Dutch consultant Leon Harland to be the CEO of bumi armada. Sadly it didn't work out so well. Maybe they should have hired icon8888 instead as he seems to think running a business is as easy as 123.

Posted by VenFx > 2019-07-01 23:30 | Report Abuse

Haiyo , biz is about peopples.

Try to investigate who built the kk umno building.
Someone ceiling installer partner with former chief Sabah.

U may know how they work it out the plan in digging the mine of the peopples sabahan's pocket .

Posted by VenFx > 2019-07-01 23:32 | Report Abuse

U know what's the secret to get the contract ?
The ceiling contractor hire a project consultant from Singapore.

Pay the consultant at fantastic pay at the espenses of the rakyat.
That's the reality during the BN umno days.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-07-02 06:09 | Report Abuse

You want to discuss Gkent I discuss Gkent

But after listening to my honest opinion you get upset and started attacking me

Who is the one that need nodding heads ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-07-02 06:15 | Report Abuse

Gkent rallied in the past because jib kor gave them outrageous project delivery partner status mah

Now they got contracts from LGE just like everybody else loh

Profit margin will not be good

Those good old days are gone

Without Najib Gkent the swan has reverted back to ugly duckling again

Not saying it is a bad company but not one with moat either

It is just an ordinary contractor

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-07-02 06:21 | Report Abuse

And those water meters they sell , you talk like those are Coca Cola with the world as its market

Water meters no brand no franchise, how much can it make ?

How big can it grow ?

Just a piece of metal hammered into certain shape

Big deal

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-07-02 06:27 | Report Abuse

In latest Q, metering PBT was RM5 mil only.

10 years ago it was making RM5 mil per quarter also

Moat ?

Moat my ass

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-02 08:01 | Report Abuse

(US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > Jul 1, 2019 9:23 PM | Safety first.
=========

safety first is fine for investors....

I guess investors should prefer Yinson over Armada.

Armada is for speculators, traders and contrarians ...my natural inclination.

Yinson, didn't buy at $ 4, how to buy at $ 6? Armada still at 20 sen.............As members of the public and no inside information, there is only so much we can know about Yinson and Armada, so finally its all down to choice.........Yinson at new high or Armada at lows? The former is of higher quality, the latter more movements and speculators/ traders live for movements......at least these 2 makes better sense than 90% of other stocks..........

me? 25% of my invested portion is currently with Armada. For some reason, OG shares are the flavor..........maybe due to lack of alternatives.

Posted by paperplane > 2019-07-02 08:06 | Report Abuse

Buying a good company at premium, buying a lousy company at cheap price. This is always tough

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-07-02 08:09 | Report Abuse

Both methods also correct

No need to argue so much

Just treat the other side with respect