Posted by paperplane > 2019-07-02 08:12 | Report Abuse

Has there been any change in mgt or board for Armada,such as the sapng?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-02 08:14 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-02 08:17 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2019-07-02 08:20 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha,
Qqq3 the pro trader why not the fast and furious Naim, Dayang, Inari or Hib?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-02 08:36 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-02 08:53 | Report Abuse

https://www.corporateinformation.com/ImageSvr/Chart.ashx?T=SS&C=C458002Q0

Posted by Sslee > 2019-07-02 09:05 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha,
Qqq3 now talk about allergic then you cannot call you-self The PRO bad, good, ugly also trade. I make some bet with TSVT, bought some bjland from 0.2 to 0.185. What do you think of bjland?

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-07-02 09:09 | Report Abuse

If you don't know how to recognize competitive business advantage with your ass, perhaps you need to use your head instead. Name one other water meter manufacturer design and build in Bursa. Go ahead, I'll wait.

For metering business alone which they have very few competitors and you say is boring and simple ( the kind Peter lynch and Warren buffet love the best) it gives you guaranteed 120 million and 20m pbt every year like clockwork. If it was just that then I would not be investing in gkent. But they went from there to building water treatment plants in New Guinea, and adding staff to become a rail specialist contractor and hospital builder.

But of course people like icon thinks this is easy and anyone can do.

But then again he is far too optimistic.

Kraken improves from 20bpd to 33 bpd he thinks it is a roaring improving success ( charter requirement is for 80 bpd).

One thing retired engineers and investment bankers lack is an understanding of the business itself. They concentrate far too much on the numbers and projections and less on what the numbers are telling you about the business.

But that is always the problem, read a few days and Maybank and CIMB analysts thinks he is an expert on FPSO business and knows how armada will perform in the future. I have held yinson for almost 7 years now and visited FPSO and oil rig platforms and I still have no idea sometimes how profitable the contracts really are.

But most analysts are suddenly genius after a few days of analysing I'm sure.

Kudos icon8888, you are the best, everyone else is stupid and doesn't know what a moat is. Anyway you are definitely right, gkent got no most, I'm using a small position on margin in it, and we will have to monitor the performance as it goes along. Time will tell.

But you seem very smart, a solid question for you then. I do want to know what you think.

Today gkent is doing 400 million revenue and 80 million net profit. They have 200 million in cash, positive cash flow and no debt. Core Management has not changed since the 90's.

What will be the impact on Gkent in the next 1-2 years with tender renegotiation of 11.86(50% to mrcb) to gkent bottom line?

Will they double their net profit and revenue to 800 million/160 million in npt from lrt3, mrt,2 hospital handover and new water treatment project? Or will it remain stagnant?

In 2018 when they did 616 million and 124m in net profit share price is rm4.

What will the business be like in 2020? Still same as 2019?

>>>>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 2, 2019 6:27 AM | Report Abuse

In latest Q, metering PBT was RM5 mil only.

10 years ago it was making RM5 mil per quarter also

Moat ?

Moat my ass

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-07-02 09:12 | Report Abuse

all the best

Posted by VenFx > 2019-07-02 09:42 | Report Abuse

Macam earlier time i buy diam diam in hibiscus.
Great discussion, and almost 90% of the forumers holding very negative judgement to hibi that time.

After 2 years see what now, everyone say its a value investment. 


For me, To simple down in investment, just compare the Reward to Risk ratio lah. 3:1 i will go ahead . 
As long the company doesnt go bancrupt or making lost continuingly by 2 years.

Posted by VenFx > 2019-07-02 09:43 | Report Abuse

Buy branded counter with premium price, one still can lost when the market at very bad shape.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-02 10:38 | Report Abuse

ed by Sslee > Jul 2, 2019 9:05 AM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha,
=========

for investors, they focus on their companies....for speculators, traders, contrarians.....this rally.....better to make use of this rally to sell shares than to buy shares........

what changed over the weekend? U turn on Huawei is good news to Wall Street but what else?...Wall Street expectations running ahead of reality.

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2019-07-02 16:31 | Report Abuse

Icon, did u take a look at WCE? Worth a look, high upside potential relative to downside, imo.

Posted by DickyMe > 2019-07-02 17:41 | Report Abuse

Cannot trust privileged company. Always injection from government. Their contracts are gift, not due to quality or diligence of service. As long as, race is a criteria, any govn or company playing along these line will not be a global player or successful company.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-03 07:48 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-07-03 08:29 | Report Abuse

Not keen on WCE

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-07-03 08:30 | Report Abuse

Owing to delays in securing land rights, the cost of land acquisition (particularly in Selangor) is expected to climb to RM2.13 billion – exceeding the government’s allocation of RM980 million by RM1.15 billion. West Coast plans to fund the additional land cost with costs savings from project expenditure, toll revenue from earlier-completed sections and equity injections. That said, the Company is currently appealing approximately RM830 million of the land compensation award. Although the risks of hold-ups in obtaining land rights and potential increase in land cost remain, only 6% of private land for the Project has yet to go through the land enquiry process.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-03 13:06 | Report Abuse

3iii I never fully understood the term "building castles in the air"
==========

which part is building castles? these are tabulations of PL and B/S.............


further as charter rates have improved, it makes sense that utilisation rates and Armada PL will improve.......................

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-03 13:42 | Report Abuse

Fiscal year is January-December Quarterly results

MYR ('000)

QTR ##31.3.19 ##31.12.18 ##30.9.18 ##30.6.18 ####TTM

Sales ##491,608 ##576,308 ##588,047 ##654,042 ####2,310,005

Gross Inc ##189,969 ##80,652 ##173,312 ##46,956 ####490,889

Int Exp ##131,253 ##128,302 ##130,845 ##131,430 ####521,830

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-03 13:43 | Report Abuse

Fiscal year is January-December Quarterly results

MYR ('000)

QTR ##31.3.19 ##31.12.18 ##30.9.18 ##30.6.18 ####TTM

Sales ##491,608 ##576,308 ##588,047 ##654,042 ####2,310,005

Gross Inc ##189,969 ##80,652 ##173,312 ##46,956 ####490,889

Int Exp ##131,253 ##128,302 ##130,845 ##131,430 ####521,830



TTM GROSS Profit RM 490.889 million.
TTM Interest Expenses RM 521.830 million.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-03 16:30 | Report Abuse

Balance Sheet 31.3.2019

ASSETS
Cash 1.148 m
AR 1,143 m
Inv 5 m
CURRENT ASSET 2,444 m

PPE 6,495 m

TOTAL ASSET 14,991 m


LIABILITIES
STDebt 6,801 m
AP 510 m
CURRENT LIABILITIES 8,237 m

LTDebt 3,200 m

TOTAL LIABILITIES 11,662 m

TOTAL EQUITIES 3,330 m

TOTAL LIAB & EQ 14,991 m




NET DEBT

Cash 1,148 m
Total Debt 10,001 m
Net Debt 8,853 m


Total Debt/Total Asset = 66.7%

Total Debt/ Total Equity = 3x


CA/CL = 2,444m / 8,237m = 0.3
QR = 0.3

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-03 16:34 | Report Abuse

Share price 22.5 sen / shr

Market Capital (RM): 1.322b
Number of Share: 5.877b
NTA (RM): 0.570

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-03 16:36 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-03 16:40 | Report Abuse

Total Asset 14,991 m
Total Equity 3,330 m

Capital Employed
= Eq + Total Debt - Cash
= 3,300 + 8.853 = 12,183 m.

Enterprice Value
= Mkt cap + Total Debt - Cash
= 1,322 m + 8.853 m
= 10,175 m



What is your projected earnings for this year?
What is the ROA, ROE and ROCE?
What returns are you looking for?

Given your assumptions, should it be trading above or below its book value?


What is the present price of Bumi Armada?
It is trading below its book value. Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-03 16:42 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-03 16:52 | Report Abuse

But got big margin of safety mah....!!

Posted by 3iii > Jul 3, 2019 4:42 PM | Report Abuse

Conclusion

Very gruesome company indeed.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-03 16:56 | Report Abuse

U need to understand there is not much different between Armada v Yinson loh....!!

Just that Yinson got lucky whereas Armada was hit by bad luck mah...!!

The tide will change...Armada is just a fallen angel...it has enough ability to turnaround & recover sharply loh...!!

There is huge margin of safety and enough resources in armada to become great again mah...!!

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-03 20:14 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-03 22:03 | Report Abuse

Yinson

Profitability
Gross Margin +54.83
Operating Margin +48.21
Pretax Margin +31.99
Net Margin +22.70
Return on Assets 3.23
Return on Equity 12.54
Return on Total Capital 8.04
Return on Invested Capital 4.14

Capital Structure
Total Debt to Total Equity 270.74
Total Debt to Total Capital 73.03
Total Debt to Total Assets 58.46
Interest Coverage 2.69
Long-Term Debt to Equity 247.75
Long-Term Debt to Total Capital 66.82
Long-Term Debt to Assets 0.53


P/B 2.57x





Bumi Armada

Profitability
Gross Margin +27.62
Operating Margin +20.77
Pretax Margin -94.96
Net Margin -95.21
Return on Assets -13.39
Return on Equity -51.98
Return on Total Capital 3.26
Return on Invested Capital -25.30

Capital Structure
Total Debt to Total Equity 308.81
Total Debt to Total Capital 75.54
Total Debt to Total Assets 66.78
Interest Coverage 0.97
Long-Term Debt to Equity 98.63
Long-Term Debt to Total Capital 24.13
Long-Term Debt to Assets 0.21

P/B 0.27

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-03 22:06 | Report Abuse

Study very carefully Armada v Yinson....the verdict is armada is highly undervalue BUT yet much bigger than yinson loh....!!

Armada should deserve higher value loh....!!

THE LATEST QTR SHOWS ARMADA ALREADY TURNING AROUND & ITS BORROWING HAD DECREASE MAH....!!

A SIGN OF IMPROVING CASHFLOW too LOH....!!


Posted by stockraider > Jul 3, 2019 4:56 PM | Report Abuse X

U need to understand there is not much different between Armada v Yinson loh....!!

Just that Yinson got lucky whereas Armada was hit by bad luck mah...!!

The tide will change...Armada is just a fallen angel...it has enough ability to turnaround & recover sharply loh...!!

There is huge margin of safety and enough resources in armada to become great again mah...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-03 22:18 | Report Abuse

Very Positive points for Armada

Concluding Remarks

Good Prospect going fwd
At current market cap of RM1.26 bil, Armada is trading at prospective PER of approximately 5 times. The group has weak balance sheets, but long term charters provide it with strong earning and cash flow visibility.

Going forward, I think the most important factor to watch is Armada Kraken. If they managed to resolve all the problems faced by this vessel (indications are that they are heading in right drection), the stock will experience a major re-rating.

Strong Cashflow
a) The group generated net profit of approximately RM300 mil per annum. However, depreciation charges was approximately RM500 mil per annum. Added that back, net operating cashflow (already factoring in interest payment of approximately RM500 mil per annum) would be approximately RM800 mil per annum (ignoring changes in working capital as it tends to even out over years).

(b) In FY2017, the group incurred capex of RM1.8 bil. In FY2018, the amount was approximately RM758 mil. Going forward, capex is expected to be a lot lower as all the vessels had been completed and delivered (unless further capex is required to rectify Armada Kraken problems, which I think is unlikely to be big as material improvement has been achieved recently).

(c) In FY2018, the group's 3 joint ventures (2 in India, 1 in Indonesia) flew up a total RM249 mil cash to the group by way of dividend and capital repayment. Going forward, it is difficult to tell whether the same quantum can be maintained. However, for two consecutive years, these joint venture stakes have been contributing net profit of RM160 mil per annum to the group. I think going forward, dividend payment of RM100 mil per annum is a realistic assumption.

(d) In FY2017 and FY2018, the group disposed of assets amounted to RM140 mil and RM86 mil respectively. The group will continue to dispose of assets in the future to raise cash.

(e) Over the two financial years (2017 and 2018), the group made net repayment of RM1.809 bil. This worked out to be RM900 mil per annum.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-03 23:06 | Report Abuse

PLEASE NOTE BELOW IS NOT TRUE LOH....!!

"It is true that Yinson has stronger balance sheet (net gearing of 1.1 times) compared to Armada (net gearing of 2.7 times). But as long as Armada can service its debt obligations (recent indications are that they can), maybe we should not let balance sheet weakness completely shut us down."

WHY NOT TRUE LEH ??

a}PLEASE NOTE UNLIKE YINSON WHO DISGUISE THEIR HUGE FUNDINGS IN THE FORM OF PERPETUAL BOND, ALL ARMADA FUNDINGS ARE STRUCTURE IN THE FORM OF BORROWING TRANSPARENT TO THE EYE LOH...!!

b}SOME BIG ARMADA LOSSES, ARE SELF INFLICTED DUE TO THEIR CONSERVATIVE AND PRUDENCE ACCOUNTING CHARGING OUT ALL POTENTIAL COST EVEN SOME MAY NOT HAVE HIGH PROBABILITY OF OCCURENCE WELL AHEAD OF TIME RESULTING IN OVER STATING EXPENSE LOH..!!

c} THUS THERE ARE POTENTIAL REVERSAL FROM IMPAIRMENT TO PROFIT WILL BE VERY HIGH IN THE NEAR FUTURE MAH....!! THAT MEANS BALANCE SHEET EQUITY WILL IMPROVE AND THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH BETTER GEARING RATIO FOR ARMADA LOH....!!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-04 06:12 | Report Abuse

3iii

TTM GROSS Profit RM 490.889 million.
TTM Interest Expenses RM 521.830 million.
=======================


according to icon table, for FY 2018, there is operating profits of $ 160 million after interest expense of $ 522 million.........

further for quarter ended March 2019, there is a strong recovery in FPSO and FGS segment to $ 254 million on the back FGS completed in 2018........looks exciting................further work needed to make sure this is sustainable.

icon's comments...........Following completion of 4 vessels in FY2018, contribution by FPSO and FGS (Floating Gas Storage, referring to the vessel chartered to Malta for Liquified Natural Gas storage for power generation purpose) has picked up, as evidenced by higher FPSO and FGS revenue of RM801 mil in FY2018 compared to RM529 mil in FY2017...................


big winners are when the turnaround is unappreciated...this surely is worth investigating......................

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-04 06:21 | Report Abuse

The last 5 quarter segment results of FPSO and FGS are as follows...............285, 166, 197, 153 and 254...............interesting..........

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-04 06:36 | Report Abuse

icon takes the trouble to tabulate the results. Look at the tabulation and try to make sense of it.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-04 07:07 | Report Abuse

me? The banks had a chance to pull the rug a few months ago. They didn't do it but choose to refinance them.

some thing convinced them it is to their interest to give Armada time.

u have to understand that bankers have no fear to pull the rug ( and realise their pledged securities) if there is no turnaround plan.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-04 09:21 | Report Abuse

the restructuring comes with higher spread but BLR is recently reduced by .25%.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-04 09:24 | Report Abuse

Reduction in interest rates is very good for armada loh....!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 4, 2019 9:21 AM | Report Abuse

the restructuring comes with higher spread but BLR is recently reduced by .25%.

Posted by VenFx > 2019-07-04 09:30 | Report Abuse

哇 !
Icon8888 thread
Flooded with long page by other

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-04 09:34 | Report Abuse

It need be that way to be informative loh...!!!

If not u want 1 line info like....!!

Buy...buy...buy...!!

Sell...sell...sell...!!

Hold...hold...hold...meh ??

Posted by VenFx > Jul 4, 2019 9:30 AM | Report Abuse

哇 !
Icon8888 thread
Flooded with long page by other

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-04 09:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-04 10:12 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-07-04 10:18 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-04 10:29 | Report Abuse

3 iii..........u know what is the difference between Henyuan and Armada?

Hengyuan is a factory. Armada much more flexible in terms of future and capacity.

Presently, large segmental profits balanced by large interest expenses......BLR just cut recently, good for them and company have more lease receivables ( from FPSO and FGS) on fixed rates basis.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-04 10:30 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-04 10:34 | Report Abuse

Posted by 3iii > Jul 4, 2019 10:18 AM | Report Abuse



TTM GROSS Profit RM 490.889 million.
TTM Interest Expenses RM 521.830 million.
=========

for quarter ended March 2019....gross profits of $ 190 million, interest expense $ $ 135 million and eps of 1 sen.............

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-04 10:36 | Report Abuse

TURNAROUND THEME SONG DEDICATED TO BUMI ARMADA!

Turn Around)
Bonnie Tyler, Kareen Antonn
I turn around
Je tourne en rond

You know that sometimes I feel lonely and lost
Tu sais que quelques fois je me sens seule et perdue

Will you come back to me
Est ce que tu me reviendras

I turn around
Je tourne en rond

You know that sometimes I feel far from you
Tu sais que quelque fois je me sens loin de toi

Say you will remember me
Dis est ce que tu te souviendras de moi

I turn around
Je tourne en rond

On the whole earth I feel abandoned
Sur la terre entière je me sens abandonnée

Say is all that will change
Dis est ce que tout ça va changer

I turn around
Je tourne en rond

To live my loneliness my best
Pour habiter ma solitude de mon mieux

Me who do not know that being two
Moi qui ne sais qu'être deux

I'm going around in circles without you
Je tourne en rond sans toi

You know that sometimes I'm afraid of you
Tu sais que quelque fois j'ai peur de toi

I'm going around in circles without you
Je tourne en rond sans toi

You know that sometimes I'm scared of myself
Tu sais que quelque fois j'ai peur de moi
Turn around
Turn around

Every now and then I get a little bit of restless and I dream of something wild
Every now and then I get a little bit restless and I dream of something wild

Turn around
Turn around

Every now and then I get a little bit helpless and I'm falling like a child in your arms
Every now and then I get a little bit helpless and I'm lying like a child in your arms

Turn around
Turn around

Every now
Every now…

Posted by Sslee > 2019-07-04 10:40 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha,
Pro’ trader qqq3 why the need to study financial account and argue with 3iii? Just make use of price volatility opportunity to make your trading profit is good enough.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-07-04 10:43 | Report Abuse

me? I just expressing my opinion on stuffs written.....

I bought Armada long before icon wrote this and long before 3iii wrote his...............


Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

Jul 4, 2019 10:20 AM | Report Abuse

Jaks performing.........
not too bad, all my shares performing....Armada, Ekovest, Teo Seng, Jaks.........

Posted by stockraider > 2019-07-04 10:47 | Report Abuse

If u argue with people like 3iii and Philip using the accounts and fundamental u r wasting ur time loh...!!

These people are narrow minded & one track mind and most of all they already make up their mind to belittle u, no matter what says mah...!!

If u argue with raider at least u can talk sense and at least raider will see your point of view too mah...!!
Posted by Sslee > Jul 4, 2019 10:40 AM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha,
Pro’ trader qqq3 why the need to study financial account and argue with 3iii? Just make use of price volatility opportunity to make your trading profit is good enough.


qqq3
11842 posts
Posted by qqq3 > Jul 4, 2019 10:43 AM | Report Abuse

me? I just expressing my opinion on stuffs written.....

I bought Armada long before icon wrote this and long before 3iii wrote his...............


Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

Jul 4, 2019 10:20 AM | Report Abuse

Jaks performing.........
not too bad, all my shares performing....Armada, Ekovest, Teo Seng, Jaks.........