Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-20 14:29 | Report Abuse

For the record, :P
I posted on 17/11/15

i think some ppl are too optimistic of this Q's result especially the talk abt dividends... it's really too soon.

QoQ, USD rised 16%, at outstanding hedging of 100m, M2M loss is around 13-15m, this is almost certainly to be confirmed.

I'll still say it's more likely that a loss will be coming this Q, around -5 to -1m depending on how much their revenue increased
17/11/2015 15:21

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-20 14:30 | Report Abuse

Of course at that time i expect revenue to stay same or increased, now we know revenue decreased, which causes more loss....

Up to you all to read the same report, and source for information, and make your own decision :)

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-20 14:47 | Report Abuse

Today's price decreased is also caused by A LOT OF PPL buying in the morning session when they didn't check the Q result properly... these same ppl are now panic selling and cutting loss... making the technicals very bad, and causing more ppl to cut loss.

I really wonder wtf is bursa doing, with such a mistake in announcements. Even to the point i suspect it could be purposely done?

Technical players are getting cut left n right today....

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-11-20 14:54 | Report Abuse

on purpose la..

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-11-20 14:57 | Report Abuse

val elta, overall, the revenue up in 2015...

i quote from kenanga:

YoY, FY15 revenue improved by 23% with better sales seen
across all segments. On a closer look, HDD experienced the
steepest revenue growth of 31% due to low base as well as
stronger orders from HDD customers on the back of increasing
demand of cloud computing. Meanwhile, both Auto and
Camera segments also seen stellar growth of 23% and 11%,
respectively, from low base; with the latter recovered with
steadier order volumes supported by its strategic partner.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-20 14:58 | Report Abuse

I would expect such important announcement to be done with '2 man rule/4 eyes' rule loh... that's pretty standard in financial reporting... really dunno how the result is 'approved' to be sent out.

Posted by kakashit > 2015-11-20 14:58 | Report Abuse

Jibai Vendeta, brought us to Holland, dailou , the whole Notion thread is written by u, god oso u ghost oso u, win then claim credit, lose then make excuses, shame on u

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-11-20 14:58 | Report Abuse

Cannot jz look at 1 quarter

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-11-20 15:00 | Report Abuse

camera also got 11% growth for whole year of 2015.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-20 15:01 | Report Abuse

:) I think I'll just stay quiet now.. lol.
Kakashit, please feel free to cut loss.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-20 15:06 | Report Abuse

exactly because whole thread post by me, you can see what i say all along.
Lol... when u fear TCF dump, i say stay calm, when you greed this week, i also say stay calm... you all greedy dont blame me.. poor me :(

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-11-20 15:07 | Report Abuse

In july, aug & sep, the global was having a drawback due to worry on china. that may be the reason it had a lower order and revenue. but that's over already.

Posted by cutie > 2015-11-20 15:19 | Report Abuse

Look to the future. See so many counters have bad results but still can go up a lot ....why?
because they are optimistic about their future. Stock market is forecast 6 months ahead and not the present.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-11-20 15:27 | Report Abuse

haha.. it's very interesting also to read how the company like to display the results in the way the intended. they compare Q4 and Q3 of 2015 and then claim what drop how much and how disappointing it is.

but never compare Q4 of 2015 vs 2014 which everything was improved, in revenue of all sectors, including camera. haha.. u can fall into the trap, sell to them ;)

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-20 15:33 | Report Abuse

cutie you n ur friends cleared 40c sell q is it :P

Posted by wren > 2015-11-20 16:20 | Report Abuse

they want everyone is boycott this counter so that they can push easily..like instaco...

Posted by Ven Felix > 2015-11-20 18:01 | Report Abuse

The bos has cut the hecking loss n cashing out. It is ridiculous to look into this NOT ION

Posted by kakashit > 2015-11-20 18:38 | Report Abuse

Vandeta, do u know why u keep talking non-stop? bcoz u 心虚
解释等于掩饰。。。

after scolding u, then i go scold the management

Posted by Sapiee Jamel > 2015-11-20 20:05 | Report Abuse

Switch to KPSCB and YILAI for your safety.

Posted by blacktulip > 2015-11-21 12:55 | Report Abuse

To be fair nobody shd blaim anyone for giving opinion here. If you swallow the commemts here without thinking or checking n put your hard earn money then it just shows you r a no brainer. MasterTan was a bit emotional n optismistic but ValElta has been a very sane analyst. Personally base on his arguments i let go a bit at 42 45 n 48 n pick back yesterday when everyone was throwing. Common if you cannot
Afford to lose money then dont dabble in the stock market. You will b s
Wallowed alive. Such people cannot last long in the stock market.
ValElta , contine to voice out your thoughts. Dont let barking dogs deter you.

Posted by Black > 2015-11-21 13:55 | Report Abuse

2 months ago,
I went to Lowyat, no body is bergaduh there, I didn't see one.

I just want to buy a 500 GB WD Hard disk. Holy Cow!! RM 239 !!!
I thought, 18 months ago, my girl girl was asking me for one, the time was only RM 159.
(Yeah, you can get a 1000GB WD @ RM 239 excactly that time.

???? As the HD Part maker of WD, I thought Notion is making money, so I bought it @ 40 sen.

Now down to 39.5 sen, lose 1++ %.....

Shiittt ah, Hard disk hike 50%, Notion still lose money.
Where does the money goes? Goes to Singapore syndicate pockets.

Posted by master_tan > 2015-11-21 18:28 | Report Abuse

Operating wise Notion is in profit stage, but I am overlook on the hedging contract which lose so much. What a shame to TCF....

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-11-21 20:07 | Report Abuse

As long as Tom, Dick and Harry do not suck public money, anyone can manage the company much better than him. In fact, with the current broadly favorable currency environment for this kind of biz, any sleeping mgt also can make profit too. The continuous losing money records has nothing to do with biz but it is all about bad integrity of the decision maker.

Posted by DreamSubjugator > 2015-11-21 20:16 | Report Abuse

What TP

Posted by blackout > 2015-11-21 20:25 | Report Abuse

Dunno man, i am wondering what the hell is going on inside this co. The previous hedge is at 3.80. 3.80 also cannot make money?????? What the hell man

Posted by blackout > 2015-11-21 20:27 | Report Abuse

Need 4.30 to make money???? The bloody management is making too much money, each director is drawing 900k per annum. 6 management people. Almost 6mil management salary. The company managed so poorly.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-11-22 00:47 | Report Abuse

guys, u guys should really find out how to calculate hedge and forex. because it was closed very low in september, an irrational one. which mean next quarter it is hedged at this ridiculous low RM. that is why next quarter results is going to be a great one that u can't believe it.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-11-22 00:49 | Report Abuse

plus the company make a provision of allowance for equipment impairment for 6 mil in advance. haha.. haven't got impairment loss but set aside the allowance for it. that is creative accounting. man u guys are really that blind.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-11-22 00:52 | Report Abuse

they so happy absorbed the 8.7 mil shares last friday. guess who bought?

Posted by Ven Felix > 2015-11-22 12:35 | Report Abuse

Volatility is not a game for 99.99% investor. That's what I know. Unpredictable, Bos cashing like no tomorrow. Thats enough say. Simply not to pick this one. Unless those oredi long holding it.

Posted by Ven Felix > 2015-11-22 12:39 | Report Abuse

If I want to pick a volatile counter I rather pick Bornoil than this, reason it can be broke with Hapseng as d big holder. Furthermore, if d gold mining doesn't delivery; sure Hs will get his other biz to pump in .

Posted by Ven Felix > 2015-11-22 12:40 | Report Abuse

Think twice what left for Notion, even Dufu will outperform it.

Posted by blackout > 2015-11-22 16:43 | Report Abuse

I really want to hear what the management has to say in the annual meeting

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-22 22:22 | Report Abuse

What can they say? I would ask them abt their RnD dept n c if it makes sense to invest more into that dept really... They r not getting new products in to keep cnc machine utilization high.
It's been more than a year of SLR downturn, I think we can expect that SLR sales will not increase much n will b sideways.
So its really important they get new products from current customer, or new customers totally. In this regard they r slow to react...
The glass machine business after being mentioned, now no sound no gas d....

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-22 22:25 | Report Abuse

I also feel they r still picky/choosy abt the customer or margin... I'm sure they can gain new customers if they throw price a bit. But of course, got pro n cons if they do that. Part of d reason I like notion is their high margin...

Posted by kakashit > 2015-11-22 23:38 | Report Abuse

what will happen has happened, 好的不灵丑的灵
Im going to report this fraud to MSWG and claim damages from Notion.

who wants to fight for shareholder's right lets join me, i'll not let this jibai TCF ran away and laugh to the bank, i wn him to cry to the court

Posted by blackout > 2015-11-23 08:41 | Report Abuse

@kakashit, I dont think its so bad la...

Posted by master_tan > 2015-11-23 10:52 | Report Abuse

i think better avoid this company, if we are unable to know the details of the business. I have dumped all of shares, losing some money.

Posted by master_tan > 2015-11-23 10:54 | Report Abuse

i expect company to be profitable from depreciated RM, but it is not.....really dissapointed

Posted by cutie > 2015-11-23 11:08 | Report Abuse

they are hoping us to dump all our shares before their goreng time. I think a lot of us have already dump their shares.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-23 11:38 | Report Abuse

Mmmm... master_tan stay calm when ppl panic, stay calm when ppl greed..
You were not calm when greed happen, and now you're not calm when panic happen

I do think selling now is a mistake, but as you've sold.. it's a bit too bad la, either you don't take any actions like anonymous and wait for the turnaround to complete, or you sold and took profit like some other did, and buy back now..

For me, it's actually a good time to buy in this range.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-23 11:52 | Report Abuse

Master_tan, from your entry to notion forum, it's <3 months and you exit now.
You were timing the bottom, and n cutting loss..... technical player, probably an active trader too. Kakashit also same profile as you, go in at 42.5, have chance to sell at 47 but didn't sell. now he's stuck and is complaining. :) Traders, and speculators...

Posted by yick78 > 2015-11-23 13:02 | Report Abuse

We should wait like Instaco. it will give you handsome result if you are patience enough.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-23 13:33 | Report Abuse

The Q result is for september... which is 2 months ago.. forex was 4.40 to RM back then. Since then.

USD drop from 4.40 > 4.29 for October. = Some realised derivative gain, as they settle their monthly hedging due.
For November... It's still 4.29 now even as USD interest rate talk is getting stronger. If it's below 4.40, another month of some small realised gain in hedging.
In december, From 4.30 still have some room for it to appreciate without triggering another M2M loss for Notion.

Would USD rise another 10%? 4.84 to RM? >> I think most will believe this is NOT LIKELY
Maybe at most, rise to 4.6, 5%... at outstanding hedge of 67m (after 10m matured in October n November), it'll be likely to loss 3-4m forex hedge.

Overall, probability of next Q outperforming far outweights this Q..

I think the sellers now will most probably regret in 3 months time....

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-23 13:35 | Report Abuse

Don't feel like talking too much d, make your own research to decide if you want to cut loss, add in, or sit out and wait.

Posted by master_tan > 2015-11-23 13:39 | Report Abuse

yeap, I cut loss and entering to EG.
Spotted EG last week, and decided to dump Notion and enter EG.
although lose 1 cents in Notion, but recovered from EG now...

Anyway, I will re-enter Notion, when time is right, and with the correct price again.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-23 13:55 | Report Abuse

got some important announcements coming up.
1) forex rate by end of next week.
2) cipa SLR sales result

If this two results are good, turn around can occur as early as next week.

Of course, December will be watching forex and cipa slr result again...
Within 1 week to 1.1 months, there could be confirmation signal already

Posted by vaentec > 2015-11-23 14:07 | Report Abuse

Val-elta. Can you explain the details of the hedging for me? What is it hedged at against USD and, when does it expire? Where did you get these info?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-23 14:28 | Report Abuse

the hedging price is updated every 3 months in their Q result, eventhough it may be M2M every month I guess, (not an accountant)

Previously it's hedged in June 3.77, after which RM got beaten like crazy until RM4.40, so there's a forex loss of 16%, of RM100m = about 15m loss u see in notion in the latest quarter result.

However, every quarter, they will 'settle' some parts of the hedge, about 23m per quarter..

So in the latest Q result for September, they took the 16m loss, and their outstanding hedge is 77m which is already marked to 4.40

Assuming 4.40 is peak, or at least 4.60 will be the peak, the 15m loss u see last Q should not happen again, and there could be some forex gain as well if RM is lower than 4.40 vs USD..

If RM > 4.4 by X% by december, you can just take 77million x the % to have a good estimate of any forex losses from their hedging.. anything lower, is a hedging gain.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-11-23 14:39 | Report Abuse

Hedging information is in every Q result.. page 10. B11 iirc... i didn't have any magical insider information.. it's there if you study/do your homework.