Posted by Kim Yap Lau > 2012-01-26 20:41 | Report Abuse

Still cheap?

Posted by Kim Yap Lau > 2012-01-26 21:08 | Report Abuse

Why cpo still rally uptrend where there are news around not so supporting???

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/199963-malaysian-palm-oil-down-as-export-orders-shift-to-indonesia.html

Posted by Kim Yap Lau > 2012-01-26 21:09 | Report Abuse

Also http://www.palmoilhq.com/crude-palm-oil-cpo-futures/

Posted by sarasam > 2012-05-11 09:21 | Report Abuse

current market price can consider..

Posted by yamaha02 > 2012-05-11 22:56 | Report Abuse

wait for 1st qtr report, production down & qtr to qtr cpo price down

Posted by Kyle Thean > 2012-05-17 01:46 | Report Abuse

omg. the current report made me lose money :S

Posted by TokanCorner > 2012-06-03 20:18 | Report Abuse

My view on TDM 2054 @ http://bit.ly/KsLsDN

Posted by kcfan > 2012-08-11 09:07 | Report Abuse

Collect on weakness ??
http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/63843?tid=6

Posted by lawrance27 > 2012-09-24 15:32 | Report Abuse

Is that a good time to grab some plantation stock ???

Posted by Melvin G > 2012-10-23 09:40 | Report Abuse

awww rebound like tws

Posted by benson911 > 2012-12-05 13:39 | Report Abuse

Quarterly report, why no coverage this time ???

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1132293

Posted by benson911 > 2012-12-16 10:46 | Report Abuse

Anyone knw why this counter trade at low P/e? Thx a lot.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-04 12:04 | Report Abuse

What are you buying? The past or the future? Any how, TDM is still my favorite plantation stock at this price.

Posted by Joshua Lee > 2013-01-04 16:25 | Report Abuse

Hi everyone. I am new to this Forum, and very new to stock investment.
really appreciate everyone's honest views and sharing here, esp people like kcchongnz.

KC, can I ask u what is your fair value for TDM? I bought a bit a few months ago during dips but now it's gone much lower. I have been wondering whether it's worth averaging down.

Posted by Siew Jian Bin > 2013-01-04 16:30 | Report Abuse

Joshua, this counter rely heavily on CPO price. It is very sensitive to CPO price as the company does not produce any product from its production unlike PPB. I guess the fair P/E for this counter is around 10 as its low volume. Its NTA is quite good compare to the RM3.33. In my opinion, better monitor another quarter before buying as election is coming soon unless you are long term player.

Posted by Siew Jian Bin > 2013-01-04 16:39 | Report Abuse

Joshua, if you free and know mandarin, u can learn a lot through these articles http://www.oomoney.com/category/cold_eye/cold_eye_collection/

Posted by Joshua Lee > 2013-01-07 12:09 | Report Abuse

Siew Jian Bin, thanks for your view. I am a medium to long term player. Tx for recommending Cold Eye website which I have come across a number of times. But unfortunately, I am a "banana".

Posted by Jian Bin Siew > 2013-01-07 15:55 | Report Abuse

Joshua, u can smile today!!! Break RM3.50.

Posted by Joshua Lee > 2013-01-08 17:59 | Report Abuse

Siew Jian Bin, tx. I think the price is still quite volatile due to the uncertainties of the CPO sentiments. One day up, one day down. Just hope in the medium to long term it will be up again. It's still quite way below my entry price.

Posted by gark > 2013-01-09 11:09 | Report Abuse

Join the TDM boat.. PE 7x, BV 0.7X, DY 4-5%, Net cash RM1/share, dividend policy of 30% is too good to pass up. Divided will be declared by 04/13 expected 15 cents TE.

Further more their 40K ha plantation (~10k planted, 3K ready to harvest) in Indonesia should be ready to harvest in 2013. Two more new hospitals will double the number of beds by 2Q 2013. Lowest PE healthcare/plantation shock in MY.

Posted by Jian Bin Siew > 2013-01-09 16:47 | Report Abuse

Agree with Gark that this is one of the lowest PE oil palm stock. I guess the Dividend not that high, maybe 12sen.

Posted by gark > 2013-01-09 17:00 | Report Abuse

TDM Dividend is guaranteed minimum 30% of EPS.

So far EPS
1Q = 7,47
2Q = 3.88
3Q = 16.22
4Q = Expect 17

Total = 44.57 eps x 0.30 = minimum 13.47 cent
From the past TDM has paid out between 32%-35% so 14-15 cent TE should be near there.

Posted by Tipster > 2013-01-09 23:51 | Report Abuse

Hard sell.

Posted by hawk > 2013-01-10 00:23 | Report Abuse

I think palm may have problem now....hope not long

Posted by ganasai > 2013-01-10 00:35 | Report Abuse

not hard sell. this one is undervalued. see their nta and current price. how much dividend they pay out. then you will know this is really better than others. just current plantation trend affect only.

Posted by ganasai > 2013-01-10 00:40 | Report Abuse

current price is 3.37. dividend assume paid 14 cent only. you still got 4.15% dividend. when plantation is good, this stock, price can reach to 5 (should be, too low pe already and high NTA value).

Posted by necro > 2013-01-10 01:10 | Report Abuse

Heard they will do some corprate exercise..

Posted by necro > 2013-01-10 01:10 | Report Abuse

But not in this near term la...

Posted by kinz > 2013-01-10 01:59 | Report Abuse

but this TDM always ESOS ... sien

Posted by gark > 2013-01-10 09:42 | Report Abuse

There is no hard selling, merely listing down the facts. If you don't like the stock, no one is forcing you to buy :P

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-10 10:13 | Report Abuse

Agree with you gark. TDM needs no hard selling. It is the best value stock in my plantation list.

Posted by gark > 2013-01-10 10:29 | Report Abuse

KC,

TDM and Kfima, both shares the same characteristics. Low PE, Low BV good DY and high cash/share in the coffers. However TDM has higher institutional exposure.

But both suffer from trading liquidity and those looking for fast gain will be disappointed.

Posted by gark > 2013-01-10 10:35 | Report Abuse

Oh by the way I term those hard sellers as screaming "BUY BUY BUY before it's too late" or "TP XXX!!!!!" or "Major Announcement!".

All not backed up by any facts...

Posted by Joshua Lee > 2013-01-10 13:01 | Report Abuse

Do u guys think it may be a good time to average down on TDM now, or perhaps it's wiser to wait a while more to see data on CPO stocks and price. I do feel bullish over the medium-long run. So if possible I'd like to take advantage of any temporary dips.

Another thing, can u share with me your thoughts on averaging up on a stock which u think has good potential? Although this is the common advise of long term investors, I cant help but feel a bit 'uneasy' as the average buying price keeps going up and nearer to the present market price.

Tx!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-10 13:39 | Report Abuse

Joshua Lee "this is the common advise of long term investors"

Normally long term investors don't advise you what stock to buy. Normally it is your remisier or financial adviser who does it. Some of these advice is for your good and some for theirs. Long-term investors normally realize that the direction of the market and individual stock is very unpredictable. They are also highly affected by behavior of the thousands of individual investor making up the market. My thought, yeah who cares about my thought, is if the fundamentals have not changed and your stock has become much better bargain and you are very confident about its future and prospect, go ahead to invest more, and not for the purpose of averaging down. Of course there is this investment maxim that "don't put all your eggs into the same basket". Yeah, you never know what can happen. Reasonable diversification into different asset class, and within the equity asset, is a wise and prudent way.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-10 15:24 | Report Abuse

Posted by gark > Jan 10, 2013 10:35 AM | Report Abuse
Oh by the way I term those hard sellers as screaming "BUY BUY BUY before it's too late" or "TP XXX!!!!!" or "Major Announcement!".
All not backed up by any facts...

gark, that is what I thought too. You see there is this self fulfilling prophecy thingy. If more and more people "peddle" (hey, I was also accused of peddling stocks before) it, it will one day come through. Say for knm, see the run came in a couple of days ago and its price has gone up from 45 sen to about 54 sen within a week. But do you think a lot of people will be making a lot of money? I am not sure here. knm share price didn't go straight up all the way. It goes up and down. I am only sure those insiders and big time manipulators would have made a lot of money. But this is at whose expense? Speculation in stocks is a zero sum game, unlike investing in a company's business. Don't you agree?

Posted by Jian Bin Siew > 2013-01-10 16:39 | Report Abuse

Ok, undersatnd how you derive 15 sen now, but I guess coming quarter EPS may not that high. If the earning still can reach 17 sen at CPO of RM2500, consider not bad. PE will become 7.5 based on RM3.40 and 45 sen earning. Then should be worth to keep. If the earning is less than 10 sen, I would like to wait to lower price to keep this stock. I prefer higher dividend counter. Everyone has different "taste". s long as we can earn money, right?

Posted by sh2383jbt > 2013-01-16 17:58 | Report Abuse

also my favorite counter and very confidence with they heathcare and plantation bussiness.

Posted by ganasai > 2013-01-16 18:06 | Report Abuse

me too. wait for shine. now the price is undervalued.

Posted by necro > 2013-01-16 19:57 | Report Abuse

TDM FORM CUP AND HANDLEA?
Enter?

Posted by necro > 2013-01-16 21:18 | Report Abuse

Pro please give advice..

Posted by Leesk > 2013-02-16 12:46 | Report Abuse

Good profit and dividend. Share illiquid and owned by state govt. expending into healthcare with low margin with risk. May not have the expertise and competitiveness like other healthcare provider.

Posted by gark > 2013-02-26 18:26 | Report Abuse

TDM reported a so-so quarter slight reduction from last quarter.

As expected plantation revenue is lower but strong growth in healthcare division. PBT heathcare +150% from last quarter.

Expect minimum 13 cents dividend...

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-03-02 17:08 | Report Abuse

My estimate on the FY13 EPS is at best 30 sen based on assumption of CPO ASP at Rm2400/tonne derived from historical EPS of this stock vs CPO average selling price since 2009. This brings forward P/E of TDM to 11.13x at current price of RM3.34 which is not really cheap yet for mid cap plantation. Perhaps entry at around RM2.9 to RM3 is better. The healthcare division only contributes about 10% of its earnings so I think this stock is still largely a plantation counter. Any comments ?

Posted by gark > 2013-03-02 17:40 | Report Abuse

Last Q EPS is already 14 cents with Average CPO selling price at RM 2,522.

How on earth you can predict the FY13 EPS to fall by half with CPO at RM 2,400 which is only 5% less in price compared to last quarter?

Calculator rosak kah? Back up with facts lar, don't simply shoot.

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-03-02 17:55 | Report Abuse

I m basing it on yearly ASP not just last quarter. Take a look at the historicals, CPO ASP from 2011 to 2012 drop by 8% only (3237 to 2946) but EPS drop from 66sen to 41sen (38% drop). You can check all the way back to 2009 before you accuse ppl of shooting. Anyway, I m not condemning this stock, just prefer a larger margin of safety. I m not sure why you are so defensive.

Posted by gark > 2013-03-02 18:36 | Report Abuse

Yeah, and you need to check on why the EPS is dropping. You cannot just draw a straight line based on CPO price. The EPS drop recently is due to the planting cost for plantation at Kalimantan starting 2008. Palm oil needs about 4 years to bear fruit, until then they 'eat' extensive amount of fertilizer and money, with no contribution.

Currently 9,000 ha is planted, total 17,000 ha to be planted end of FY13. Remaining 15,000 ha is to be planted in stages until 2018. Also a new palm oil mill will be operational at end of FY13 as the Kalimantan plantation bear fruits to support the mill. Also TDM is replanting 5% per year on it's older plantation is Terengganu.

All these have effects of lowered earnings in the early stages, but will contribute to EPS later on once they bear fruit (starting end FY12)

Posted by gark > 2013-03-02 18:39 | Report Abuse

Also opening up a new plantation from scratch is not cheap as you need cost to build facility, land clearing, etc etc...all these have to be paid.

You can have any analysis you want, but back it up with facts...

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-03-02 18:52 | Report Abuse

Alright sifu, I guess my analysis is less accurate then, I m still learning. So do you have a EPS projection for 2013 ?

Posted by ganasai > 2013-03-02 19:21 | Report Abuse

no need talk so much. if u look at nta 5.13, then you know worth to buy. eps less is not company fault. it is just the sector trend. so, just buy on weak sell at strong, that simple for long term investment.