Posted by SmartyAlek > 2018-04-29 01:09 | Report Abuse

The bad new is already in HY price. When you short you need to buy back later.failure to depress the price will propel the share price higher when you buy back, especially when HY approve share buyback to support the price. for Muda the bad news is still not out yet. Good luck

Posted by probability > 2018-04-29 01:09 | Report Abuse

market always luks at the distant future....6 months is such a short time frame...and market will definitely make decision based on the foreseeable results by then.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-29 01:11 | Report Abuse

aiyo smarty...u still hopeful on that buyback is it...

sorry for a moment i really thought i was talking to someone experienced.

good night..

Posted by SmartyAlek > Apr 29, 2018 01:09 AM | Report Abuse

The bad new is already in HY price. When you short you need to buy back later.failure to depress the price will propel the share price higher when you buy back, especially when HY approve share buyback to support the price. for Muda the bad news is still not out yet. Good luck

Posted by SmartyAlek > 2018-04-29 01:14 | Report Abuse

That’s the reason why I say publicly available news are already incorporated in the price. For HY bad news is already released and priced in. For muda bad news is not out yet. You are fed too many good news now, one bad one you see a freefall. Either you are naive or you could be a penggoreng trying to dispose your Muda now

Posted by probability > 2018-04-29 01:17 | Report Abuse

HY really has a potential to drop to RM3...within 6 months.

MUDA i have no such worries.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-29 01:20 | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > Apr 26, 2018 05:41 PM | Report Abuse

despite hurricane uplifting the crack spread by 10 USD/brl to 16 USD/brl....HY CCS margin is 7USD/brl for 2017....

this year no Hurricane...crack drop at least 4 USD/barrel...and no FIFO margins...

7 - 4 = 3 USD/brl CCS margin for 2018

meaning CCS margin would go below 2016 level of 5.5 USD/brl (reported in 2017 annual report)....

...................................

Thats a whopping 2.5 USD/brl below 2016 level!!

we saw what was the earnings like in 2016 without tax of 24%.

Its easy to predict what would be for 2018 with tax..

Posted by SmartyAlek > 2018-04-29 01:25 | Report Abuse

I don’t believe someone can change their mind in a short period. Suddenly writing articles to support, suddenly writing to oppose. It does not make sense. Just like someone suddenly go from PH to BN.

Posted by SmartyAlek > 2018-04-29 01:27 | Report Abuse

You should have thought of all the above when you were writing your articles to support last year.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-29 01:29 | Report Abuse

One simple question i have for u...have you really managed to understand the implications of 1 USD/brl change in crack spread to HY's bottomline?

If you did...and you actually closely follow up all crack spread charts..name it mogas92, 95, gasoil, kerosene...

u will be able to understand why to your question below.


Posted by SmartyAlek > Apr 29, 2018 01:25 AM | Report Abuse

I don’t believe someone can change their mind in a short period. Suddenly writing articles to support, suddenly writing to oppose. It does not make sense. Just like someone suddenly go from PH to BN.

Posted by SmartyAlek > 2018-04-29 01:30 | Report Abuse

Maybe this is a sign that the penggoreng has finish selling and has no more stock in hand. You all know what to do next week

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-29 01:31 | Report Abuse

IF U R SO SMART...U SHORT LOH...!!
QUICKLY SHORT TELL WHOLE WORLD MAH...!!
IF CORRECT MAKE ALOT OF MONIES LOH...!!

Posted by probability > Apr 29, 2018 12:57 AM | Report Abuse

HY just needs another 1 USD/brl drop in refining margin for its earnings to drop below break even level. i.e at zero net earnings.

It can easily become......

" THE MOST ATTRACTIVE stock for SHORTING".

Posted by probability > 2018-04-29 01:35 | Report Abuse

i know my 5 yr old child can cross the road by himself...but that does not mean i will allow him just to prove to others he can.

Posted by SmartyAlek > 2018-04-29 01:36 | Report Abuse

I think he has already shorted and trying to scare you all now.

Posted by SmartyAlek > 2018-04-29 01:37 | Report Abuse

Just like the banker and player game.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-29 01:38 | Report Abuse

how did i scare u...by showing a ghost face? or just some random number derivations?

Posted by SmartyAlek > Apr 29, 2018 01:36 AM | Report Abuse

I think he has already shorted and trying to scare you all now.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-29 01:40 | Report Abuse

U HAVE ULTERIOR MOTIVE MAH TO MANIPULATE MAH....!!

YES...IF U DARE SHORT LOH.....!!
CAN MAKE ALOT OF MONIES MAH...!!
BUT U NO DARE LOH...!!

BUT U R SPINNING EVERYDAY...BCOS U HAVE NO BALLS TO TAKE ACTION MAH...!!


Posted by probability > Apr 29, 2018 01:35 AM | Report Abuse

i know my 5 yr old child can cross the road by himself...but that does not mean i will allow him just to prove to others he can.


Posted by stockraider > Apr 29, 2018 01:31 AM | Report Abuse X

IF U R SO SMART...U SHORT LOH...!!
QUICKLY SHORT TELL WHOLE WORLD MAH...!!
IF CORRECT MAKE ALOT OF MONIES LOH...!!

Posted by probability > Apr 29, 2018 12:57 AM | Report Abuse

HY just needs another 1 USD/brl drop in refining margin for its earnings to drop below break even level. i.e at zero net earnings.

It can easily become......

" THE MOST ATTRACTIVE stock for SHORTING".

Posted by SmartyAlek > 2018-04-29 01:41 | Report Abuse

You did not scare me. But you presented others a lot of numbers which sound bad for HY. If you were accurate you wouldn’t have given a buy call before last Qr and now a sell call before next Qr. You have an agenda here.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-29 01:43 | Report Abuse

aiyo raider...shorting does not stand in the same level field of long in Bursa ma...

retailers can only do Intraday...

Posted by SmartyAlek > 2018-04-29 01:43 | Report Abuse

Either you are in real bad luck selling HY and switch to Muda. Or you are working for some IB

Posted by probability > 2018-04-29 01:44 | Report Abuse

Crack spread dropping below 9 USD/BRL was beyond my wildest imagination....but it happened and so did i change.

Posted by SmartyAlek > Apr 29, 2018 01:41 AM | Report Abuse

You did not scare me. But you presented others a lot of numbers which sound bad for HY. If you were accurate you wouldn’t have given a buy call before last Qr and now a sell call before next Qr. You have an agenda here.

Posted by SmartyAlek > 2018-04-29 01:49 | Report Abuse

You have no idea how HY manage their margin. Your crack spread theory didn’t work for last Qr.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-29 01:49 | Report Abuse

REMEMBER HY IS NOT RM 15 OR RM 20....IT IS BELOW RM 8.00 LOH....!!

THE REFINING PROFIT, OF MOST REFINERY IN AROUND THE WORLD ARE STILL GOOD MAH....!!
HY IS CONSIDER A VERY COST COMPETITIVE REFINERY...IT CAN COMPETE WITH MOST REFINERY COMPETITIVELY MAH...!!

WHILE PETRONAS & PETRON NEED TO SPEND RM 64 BILLION AND RM 14 BILLION TO UPGRADE BY 300K BPD AND 90K BPD....HENGYUAN JUST NEED TO SPEND RM 700M CAPEX FOR 120K BPD LOH....!!

CAN U IMAGINE HOW PROFITABLE HENGYUAN CAN BE LOH....!!

Posted by probability > 2018-04-29 01:51 | Report Abuse

PETRONAS & PETRON are making a Complex refinery to handle DUBAI CRUDE which is selling at a discount by 4 USD/brl to BRENT CRUDE

Posted by probability > 2018-04-29 01:54 | Report Abuse

it was obvious error to assume HY crack spread were the same as Q3-17 fpr Q4-17...just reduce it by 2 USD/brl...it will all fall in place.

Posted by SmartyAlek > Apr 29, 2018 01:49 AM | Report Abuse

You have no idea how HY manage their margin. Your crack spread theory didn’t work for last Qr.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-29 01:56 | Report Abuse

ON SUSTAINABLE PROFITS, HY WITH EPS OF RM 2.00 GOING FWD....PE BELOW 4X MAH...!!

THIS HY IS THE CHEAPEST REFINERY IN THE WORLD AND AS WELL AS CO IN KLSE MAH....!!
U CANNOT FIND ANOTHER ONE CHEAPER THAN THIS LOH....!!

HY HAS GENERATED VERY STRONG CASHFLOW TOO...!!

IT HAS SHOWN 3 YRS OF CONSECUTIVE STRONG PROFIT SINCE SHPC TOOKOVER MAH.....!!

Posted by probability > 2018-04-29 02:02 | Report Abuse

Forward PE is 8 with current Q1 EPS of 25 cents....with a never ending hundreds of million of annual capex.

FCF will never be attainable...Dividends would be max 2 cents.

Q2 onwards will be at average 10 cents EPS per qtr...

with such earnings and risks of unplanned maintenance cost bombs..it may not be worth operating.

It can only survive if China has mercy.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-29 02:03 | Report Abuse

PLEASE READ THE 2017 ANNUAL REPORT LOH....HY CAN ALSO DO DUBAI CRUDE & RUSSIAN CRUDE LOH....!!

SO NO DIFF MAH.....!!

PETRONAS & PETRON are making a Complex refinery to handle DUBAI CRUDE which is selling at a discount by 4 USD/brl to BRENT CRUDE

BTW PETRON MSIA REFINERY B4 THE CAPEX OF RM 14 BILLION TO BE UPGRADED, IT IS JUST A SIMPLE REFINERY, IT CAN ONLY DO TAPIS MSIA CRUDE LOH...!!
TAPIS CRUDE IS EVEN MORE EXPENSIVE THAN BRENT CRUDE LOH...!!

PETRON CURRENT REFINERY OPERATING CAPACITY IS ONLY 40K BPD, THUS PETRON IMPORT ABOUT 40K TO 60K BPD FROM PHILLIPINE TO COVER ITS CURRENT SALES OF 90K TO 100K BPD DEMAND LOH...!!

Posted by probability > 2018-04-29 02:05 | Report Abuse

Raider do mention where in annual report it had mention Dubai Crude. Even if it can use...at what fractions?

Posted by probability > 2018-04-29 02:05 | Report Abuse

RSPO is well known..its equivalent - close to Brent grade.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-29 02:06 | Report Abuse

For the financial year ended 2017, HRC registered a
commendable revenue of RM11.6 billion, a 38% increase
from RM8.4 billion last year. This solid performance is a
testament to our Company’s continuing efforts to enhance
operational reliability and capture commercial opportunities
throughout our value chain.

Reflecting our vision to be the top performing and most
admired refinery in Asia, we have approved Final Investment
Decision (FID) for two (2) major upgrading projects
totalling USD160 million (approximately RM700 million*).
The first project, EURO 4M Mogas, allows the refinery to
produce EURO 4M Mogas economically and subsequently,
EURO 5, both of which are required to meet specifications
mandated by the Malaysian authorities.

The second project, ATLAS II, enables the continued and
efficient operation of the top dome and catalyst separation
system of the Long Residue Catalytic Cracker Unit’s (LRCCU)
regenerator reactor.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-29 02:15 | Report Abuse

PLS READ ANNUAL REPORT PG 31 & 32 LOH....!!
ON THE TYPE OF CRUDE THEY CAN USE MAH....!!

Posted by probability > Apr 29, 2018 02:05 AM | Report Abuse

Raider do mention where in annual report it had mention Dubai Crude. Even if it can use...at what fractions?

U SEE...THE USE OF CRUDE...IS TO GIVE THE BEST MIX LOH...!!
THEY CAN ALWAYS CHOSE THE BEST OPTION MAH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-29 02:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2018-04-29 02:23 | Report Abuse

32% Malaysian Sweet crude would offset the sourcing of any sour crude, effectively making the composition equivalent to Brent.

The plant can never handle an oil grade other than Brent equivalent. The average density and sourness has to fall within this specification.

As such HY will never obtain the advantage of a truly complex refinery which handles 100% Dubai Crude like in China or India (RIL).


Posted by stockraider > Apr 29, 2018 02:15 AM | Report Abuse

PLS READ ANNUAL REPORT PG 31 & 32 LOH....!!
ON THE TYPE OF CRUDE THEY CAN USE MAH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-29 02:30 | Report Abuse

RUBBISH LOH...GENERAL RAIDER PERSONALLY VISITED HY REFINERY LOH...!!

THEY TOLD ME THEY DO NOT NEED TO MIX CRUDE LOH....!!

THE HEAVY CRUDE CAN STAND ALONE MAH....!!

BUT SOMETIME IT IS ADVANTAGE FOR THEM TO USE LIGHT CRUDE...WHEN JET FUEL PRICE IS VERY GOOD MAH...!!

SOMETIME IT IS ADVANTAGE TO USE HEAVY CRUDE, WHEN NAPTHA PRICE IS GOOD AND WHEN THERE IS A BIG GAP BETWEEN LIGHT CRUDE PRICE & HEAVY CRUDE PRICE MAH.....!!

Hengyuan Refining Company Berhad’s oil refinery complex located in Port Dickson, Negeri Sembilan, is licensed for a production capacity of 156,000 barrels per day.

The main operating units in the refinery complex consist of two crude
distillers, a long residue catalytic cracker unit (LRCCU), two naphtha treaters and a Merox plant, one reformer and a gasoil treatment plant.


Reflecting our vision to be the top performing and most
admired refinery in Asia, we have approved Final Investment
Decision (FID) for two (2) major upgrading projects
totalling USD160 million (approximately RM700 million*).
The first project, EURO 4M Mogas, allows the refinery to
produce EURO 4M Mogas economically and subsequently,
EURO 5, both of which are required to meet specifications
mandated by the Malaysian authorities.

The second project, ATLAS II, enables the continued and
efficient operation of the top dome and catalyst separation
system of the Long Residue Catalytic Cracker Unit’s (LRCCU)
regenerator reactor.


Posted by probability > Apr 29, 2018 02:23 AM | Report Abuse

32% Malaysian Sweet crude would offset the sourcing of any sour crude, effectively making the composition equivalent to Brent.

The plant can never handle an oil grade other than Brent equivalent. The average density and sourness has to fall within this specification.

As such HY will never obtain the advantage of a truly complex refinery which handles 100% Dubai Crude like in China or India (RIL).

Posted by probability > 2018-04-29 02:42 | Report Abuse

Firstly its rubbish to say that they do not need to mix crude to operate. If they dont...there is no reason why they should not go for 100% Dubai Crude.

Its obviously the cheapest crude...

all crude will be broken down to the same components - products derived are exactly the same independent of the origin of raw material. They are just simple hydrocarbons.

Obviously HY CANNOT and HAD NEVER achieved margins like RIL (Reliance Industries) at levels exceeding 11 USD/brl.

Even in the record exceptional year 2017, they barely managed to hit 7 USD/brl. The differential between Brent and Dubai crude itself is 4 USD/brl...more than 70% of of the margin HY can obtain.

Total bullshit.
...............

May be u were led by the cleaner or some plant maintenance operator..


Posted by stockraider > Apr 29, 2018 02:30 AM | Report Abuse

RUBBISH LOH...GENERAL RAIDER PERSONALLY VISITED HY REFINERY LOH...!!

THEY TOLD ME THEY DO NOT NEED TO MIX CRUDE LOH....!!

THE HEAVY CRUDE CAN STAND ALONE MAH....!!

BUT SOMETIME IT IS ADVANTAGE FOR THEM TO USE LIGHT CRUDE...WHEN JET FUEL PRICE IS VERY GOOD MAH...!!

SOMETIME IT IS ADVANTAGE TO USE HEAVY CRUDE, WHEN NAPTHA PRICE IS GOOD AND WHEN THERE IS A BIG GAP BETWEEN LIGHT CRUDE PRICE & HEAVY CRUDE PRICE MAH.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-29 02:46 | Report Abuse

RUBBISH LOH....!!

U COMPARE LAH THE GROSS MARGIN OF HY V RELIANCE V SK PETROLEUM FOR 2015, 2016, 2017....HY GROSS MARGIN MATCH THOSE CO U MENTIONED MAH...!!

Firstly its rubbish to say that they do not need to mix crude to operate. If they dont...there is no reason why they should not go for 100% Dubai Crude.

Its obviously the cheapest crude...

all crude will be broken down to the same components - products derived are exactly the same independent of the origin of raw material. They are just simple hydrocarbons.

Obviously HY CANNOT and HAD NEVER achieved margins like RIL (Reliance Industries) at levels exceeding 11 USD/brl.

Even in the record exceptional year 2017, they barely managed to hit 7 USD/brl. The differential between Brent and Dubai crude itself is 4 USD/brl...more than 70% of of the margin HY can obtain.

THAT MEANS THEY ARE NO ADVANTAGES OF THOSE CO OVER HY LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-29 02:48 | Report Abuse

THAT MEANS HY CAN DO WHAT THOSE OTHER REFINERY CAN DO LOH...!!

I THINK U HAVE VERY VAGUE KNOWLEDGE ON HY LOH...!!

Posted by probability > 2018-04-29 02:49 | Report Abuse

RIL had upgrade its plant to handle the most sour crude in the world DUBAI CRUDE.

HY had never done that...and will never do that....as they cant. The plant is too old...it requires a complete revamping.

Ok good night raider...will comment tomorrow if need arises..

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-29 02:51 | Report Abuse

DO NOT QUOTE 1 TIME SPREAD, VERY MISLEADING MAH....!!

Obviously HY CANNOT and HAD NEVER achieved margins like RIL (Reliance Industries) at levels exceeding 11 USD/brl.

CHECK THE GROSS PROFIT MARGIN % FOR BETTER ACCURACY MAH....!!

Posted by dompeilee > 2018-04-29 08:34 | Report Abuse

This yr AGM purposely chose a further away venue to reduce the number of angry shareholders confronting mgt lol

Posted by moneypedia > 2018-04-29 08:58 | Report Abuse

investors become a loser in this stock. errmm the winner is traders....very bad....so call superinvestor here so PH future=BN.... bebas bebas.....hejeheje same like dow future laa maybe

Posted by kenlee > 2018-04-29 09:46 | Report Abuse

Sauce said will push tomorrow

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-29 09:47 | Report Abuse

Despite visiting Hengyuen refinery on site and presumably being briefed by the management there on certain issues not privy to the rest, crooked raider still got his valuation so wrong.

By singing his target price of 19 and 42, crooked raider has impoverished ahfah and her back from Australian student son. Ahmoi is a nice lady helping out crooked raider for a while during his tough time employing him in Pudu market.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-29 10:09 | Report Abuse

Post nomination day.


It is obvious the BN has a big and well oiled election machinery. It will not be easy for the opposition to dislodge BN from Putrajaya unless there is a huge ground-swell of voters against BN. I don't see this appearing today.

Nomination day revealed the weakness of the opposition parties, in particular, PKR. Those disqualified or almost disqualified based on technical grounds highlighted the poor preparations to face such a formidable challenge.

In particular, the issue of those candidates disqualified on the ground of being bankrupt is most unpalatable. Some of them were recently discharged bankrupts. Such candidates cannot be strong candidates. Interestingly, they offered their services despite their obvious difficulties. Might they not be tempted by money or goodies when faced with hard decisions to make when elected?

The main threat to BN is Pakatan Harapan. The core supporters of either parties will remain with the respective parties. As usual, the group in the middle are the deciders. To dislodge BN from Putrajaya, the shift against BN has to be huge and significant. The Pakatan Harapan faces a formidable task in getting their messages across. Given the short campaigning period, they may need a miracle to deliver a win to them.

Posted by jebat > 2018-04-29 10:49 | Report Abuse

hy will up after election.......?

Posted by joekit > 2018-04-29 10:52 | Report Abuse

Dark Blue with dacing flag
1. Joekitkat (decided oredy). NEw TEAM LEADER
2. Lee Yo Yo
3. Dragonslayer (not a dragon is slay dragon one...likes to smell ms heng kuek kuek....and take freebies...)
4. Dragon ball
5. Dragonoid
6. Dragonslave
7. Dragonfruit
8. Dragonova
9. Dragonla
10. Dragonzila
11. Brapa banyak dragon laaaa
12. Suria perkasa hitam
13. Mighty Morphin Power Rangers
14. Professor Xavier from X men
15. Wolverine
16. Cyclops
17. Donald Trunk
18. Gaban Z potong dua
19. Nangka Santiaploi
20. Chee Ku Tinh
21. Lau Lean Wong
22. Kong Jiu Shu
23. Tai Look Muk
24. Santok Singh Ryder
25. Ah Loong Mat Sui aka Sui Gor
26. Cheng Tong Fun
27. Pang Chin Fei
28. Jun Yong
29. Sania Mirza
30. Thor
31. Wonder Woman
32. Robin Hood
33. Hang Bertuah
34. Hang Lekiu
35. Hang Lekir
36. Hang Li Po (puteri)
37. Hang pi mana!
38. Gorilla
39. Godzilla
40. Mozilla Firefox
41. Zilla Bakarin
42. (Nanti kalau ada idea)
43. Mok Kam Pei
44. Sally Wong Lai Yeh
45. Fok Hor Song
45. Ooi Chee Peng



100.

(Hehehe)

Posted by Pavillion > 2018-04-29 10:54 | Report Abuse

If Trump can do, we can do too. :))

Posted by Tongkarat > 2018-04-29 10:57 | Report Abuse

To all light blue eye suppotlrters...thank you very much for your unwavering support....do continue to give support till the voting day....

Do not despair and taken aback of what happening on the nomination day yesterday...leave the matters to the legal team to handle and to care of the matters...

I am in felda settlement areas in Kota Tinggi since yesterday meeting settlers and canvassing for support and votes... The best thing to know and to feel of the actual tremor is to hit the ground yourself.... The settlers are eagerly waiting the election day....they are suffered by high cost of living but stagnant income. They are still paying their debt on fgv shares.... They are supporting quietly because they are scared of any repercussions if they were to support in open... Mingling with them is a real eye opener to understand the under current....

The wave of change is real....light blue eye

Posted by pang72 > 2018-04-29 11:08 | Report Abuse

Ph win, Hengyuan RM21..
PH LOSE, Hengyuan rm4...

Think carefully for your vote.

Posted by 10154675247544965 > 2018-04-29 11:10 | Report Abuse

Resistance at 7.5-7.9

Momentum coming back next week by looking at the analytical analysis

Should be able to go ov