Posted by probability > 2022-08-18 22:40 | Report Abuse

Correction:
...........

we shall use Mogas 95 instead of Mogas 92 with a premium of about US $4/brl

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

and the avg of the remaining products matching Mogas 95 as a minimum

Revised refining margin calculation:


= (0.46 x 42.34 ) + (0.35 x 15.91) + (0.07 x 34.10) + (0.12 x 15.91)
= 19.46 + 5.56 + 2.38 + 1.90
= US $ 29.3 / brl

I really wish all of HY debt is cleared soon..


Posted by probability > Aug 18, 2022 10:34 AM | Report Abuse X

spiked as predicted:

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/


1. Diesel cracks USD 42.34/bbl
2. Gasoline crack USD 12.04/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks USD 34.10/bb


Yield Basis: Gasoline 35%, Diesel 46%, Jet fuel 7%, the rest 12 % at crack of 10 USD/brl

Refining margin:

= (0.46 x 42.34 ) + (0.35 x 12.04) + (0.07 x 34.10) + (0.12 x 10.0)
= 19.46 + 4.21 + 2.38 + 1.2
= US $ 27.3 / brl

Posted by probability > 2022-08-18 22:45 | Report Abuse

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin of US $29.3/brl

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $29.3/brl) x (MYR 4.4/USD)
= 1.379 Billion MYR
....................

Posted by probability > 2022-08-18 22:52 | Report Abuse

The above is not a dream... it is ACTUALIZED by similar capacity neigbouring refinery:

https://www.listcorp.com/asx/ald/ampol-limited/news/4q-2021-lytton-refinery-performance-update-2657819.html

https://www.listcorp.com/asx/ald/ampol-limited/news/2q-2022-lytton-refinery-performance-and-trading-update-2736295.html?ref=more_news

The Lytton Refiner Margin (LRM)1 for the second quarter reached the unprecedented level of US$32.96 per barrel, materially higher than the US$10.59 per barrel realised in the first quarter. The significant increase in Singapore Weighted Average Margin (SWAM) was the key driver of the increase, reaching US$33.62 per barrel for the quarter

https://www.indoasiancommodities.com/2022/08/03/psu-indian-oil-sold-petrol-at-rs-10-a-litre-loss-diesel-at-rs-14-posts-rs-1992-cr-net-loss-in-q1/

“IOC (Indian Oil Corporation) reported an 88 per cent year-on-year decline in its standalone EBITDA to Rs 1,358.9 crore and a net loss of Rs 1,992.5 crore, despite record high gross refining margins (GRMs) of $ 31.8 per barrel for the quarter.

https://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2022/07/binh-son-refinery-q2-net-profit-soars-to-424-mm

Vietnam's Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical recorded net profit of $424 MM in the second quarter, up by nearly six times from a year earlier, the company said on Tuesday.

Binh Son, which owns a 130,000-bpd refinery in central Vietnam

Posted by probability > 2022-08-18 23:39 | Report Abuse

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/11/russia-oil-production-sanctions-limited-effect-ukraine-war

However, the IEA said the EU embargo on Russian crude and product imports, which comes into full effect in February 2023, would result in “further declines” as about 1m barrels a day of products and 1.3m barrels a day of crude “would have to find new homes”.

Meanwhile, with natural gas and electricity prices soaring, “incentivising gas-to-oil switching in some countries”, the IEA has raised its estimates for 2022 global oil demand growth by 380,000 barrels a day, to 2.1m barrels a day.

The global heatwave has also seen an increased oil burn in power generation, especially in Europe and the Middle East but also across Asia.

The report added: “EU members have committed to reducing their demand for gas by 15% from August 2022 to March 2023. We estimate that this will increase oil consumption by roughly 300,000 barrels a day for the next six quarters.”

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-19 04:23 | Report Abuse

SIALANG HENGYUAN C24 & PETRONM CY~~~ =D

Both mother shares will shoot to 8.88 soon!!! =D
When Hengyuan & Petronm hit 18.00 & 15.00 back in 2017/2018...the oil price was only $60pb...

So the current oil price is sibeh good enough to push the price higher....

Syndicates are coming in.... show time!!! =D

Oil up~ Crack spread up~ profit 99.99% up~ what are you waiting for???

Heng~

Ong~

Huatt ah~ =D

Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2022-08-19 08:13 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-19 09:29 | Report Abuse

Added more HENGYUAN C24 =D

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-19 09:37 | Report Abuse

Result should out by next Friday (26/08), drumroll please~ =D

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2022-08-19 09:39 | Report Abuse

Seperti yg saya katakan sebelum ini, permintaan O&G masih meningkat.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-recover-6-month-low...

Posted by tehka > 2022-08-19 09:48 | Report Abuse

I trust uncle kyy will buy back

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-19 09:54 | Report Abuse

KYY is the Ting Hai effect, please respectfully ask him not to post whether he is buying/selling Heng Yuan!!!

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-19 10:34 | Report Abuse

How come cannot find the Telegram : swindler-in-dark-red-73?????? Hahahaha

Posted by kl_guy > 2022-08-19 11:14 | Report Abuse

today volume increase is a good sign ,

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-08-19 12:56 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-08-19 12:58 |

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Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-19 13:10 | Report Abuse

Someone actually bought a TA Chart reading software from pasar malam and start teaching TA at PA forum.

The result is forgone conclusion. Running from PA forum with tail between his legs.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-08-19 13:13 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-08-19 13:17 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-08-19 13:19 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-08-19 13:22 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-08-19 13:35 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-08-19 13:41 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-08-19 13:43 |

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Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-19 13:53 | Report Abuse

Sslee Petron Q1 EPS 39.4 cents
Estimate Q 2 EPS about 66 cents
Last year dividend 20 cents

I already average down my Petronm to about RM 5 cost and now holding 50K units.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-08-19 13:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-08-19 14:47 | Report Abuse

HY refinery margin update - 19/08/22
.........................................

Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 42.98/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 34.54/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (11.35 + 3.84) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 15.19/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 42.98 ) + (0.07 x 34.54) + (0.35 x 15.19)+ (0.12 x 15.19)
= 19.77 + 2.42 + 5.31 + 1.82
= US $ 29.3 / brl
.................

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin of US $29.3/brl

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $29.3/brl) x (MYR 4.4/USD)
= 1.379 Billion MYR
...................

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-19 15:15 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-19 15:50 | Report Abuse

Get ready, Heng Yuan will lead the way first then follow by PetronM.... =D

Posted by investor77 > 2022-08-19 17:15 | Report Abuse

Now, Tech Analysis shows good to go in Margin of Safety OK as MM accumulating around RM 4 for a long time before pushing up when astonishing profit announced.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-19 18:16 | Report Abuse

https://cyprus-mail.com/2022/08/19/ukraine-says-russia-plans-to-disconnect-nuclear-plants-power-blocks-from-grid/

“There is information that the Russian occupation forces are planning to shut down the power blocks and disconnect them from the power supply lines to the Ukrainian power system in the near future,” the Ukrainian statement said.

“The Russian military is currently looking for fuel suppliers for the diesel generators, which are supposed to turn on after the power units are shut down in the absence of an external power supply for the nuclear fuel cooling systems,” it said.

The vast nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, was captured by Russian forces in March, but it is still staffed by Ukrainian technicians, though only two of its six reactors are working at full capacity.

Turning the plant off would pile new pressure on Ukrainian supplies, particularly in the south. Ukraine is already bracing for its most difficult winter since independence and preparing for a possible energy shortage.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-19 18:18 | Report Abuse

Russia wants to disconnect power plant from Ukrainian grid - Ukraine energy company

www.bbc.com/news/live/world-62603741

Energoatom, the state power company that operates the plant, says the Russian occupiers are preparing to stage a "large-scale provocation" there.

It also says the Russian military is looking for suppliers of fuel for diesel generators, which would need to be turned on if power units are shut down.

All station personnel - except for those essential to the running of the plant - have been told to stay at home.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-19 18:21 | Report Abuse

no wonder russia was reducing diesel exports earlier

https://24.kg/english/242602_Russia_cuts_diesel_exports_amid_rising_prices/

Posted by probability > 2022-08-19 18:40 | Report Abuse

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear plant has energy producing capacity of 5700 MW

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaporizhzhia_Nuclear_Power_Plant#:~:text=The%20plant%20has%206%20VVER,output%20of%205%2C700%20MWe.

If they are going to replace the energy with fuel from crude oil, its equivalent to increase in fuel demand at 100,000 bpd (refined oil consumption)

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-08-19 19:07 | Report Abuse

So many informative posts here. Mostly by probability

“But will it go back up to *at least* 7 bucks?” is probably (no pun intended) many here (and at Petronm) want to know

Q : So how, can 7 bucks again?
A : Probably
Q : Oh. When?
A : Probably sometime in the future

:)

Sorry. I’m just trying to be realistic and pragmatic. And trying to put a smile on someone’s face

Enjoy the weekend. May 7 bucks and beyond happen real soon!

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-19 20:22 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-19 20:30 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-19 20:53 |

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Posted by probability > 2022-08-19 20:53 | Report Abuse

HANOI -- PetroVietnam Power, a unit of state-run Vietnam Oil and Gas Group, has announced plans to build an oil refinery and petrochemical complex in the country. The total investment is expected to be up to $18.5 billion.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Materials/PetroVietnam-plans-to-build-oil-refinery-complex-for-18.5-billion#:~:text=HANOI%20%2D%2D%20PetroVietnam%20Power%2C%20a,be%20up%20to%20%2418.5%20billion.

Proposal to invest in an oil refinery complex and Vietnam's national crude oil and petroleum storage depot

https://vietnamenergy.vn/proposal-to-invest-in-an-oil-refinery-complex-and-vietnams-national-crude-oil-and-petroleum-storage-depot-29280.html

1) Refinery with a capacity of 12-13 million tons of crude oil per year

In PVN estimate, the investment capital of phase 1 is 12.5 -13.5 billion US$

.......

The above means US $ 13 billion for a refinery with a capacity 210k bpd.

HY at half the capacity shall be valued at at least US $ 5 billion then.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-19 21:05 |

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Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-19 21:07 | Report Abuse

Public forum, public domain....let the readers judge for themselves........hahahaha

Posted by probability > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse
aiyo amma..my grandchild wants to teach me abc...

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-19 21:33 | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > 22 minutes ago | Report Abuse
The above means US $ 13 billion for a refinery with a capacity 210k bpd.
-----------------
The capacity of Hengyuan is 155k bpd.
Hence Hengyuan should worth =USD13/210*155=USD9.6 billion.
Hengyuan plant is about 40 years old, should worth at least USD5 billion or RM22 billion.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-19 22:25 | Report Abuse

EU sixth package of sanctions against Russia

https://www.shiplawlog.com/2022/06/13/eu-sixth-package-of-sanctions-against-russia/

The package of sanctions E.U. has prohibits the import (or purchase or transfer, directly or indirectly) of Russian crude oil and certain petroleum products into member states, as well as the seaborne delivery of such goods to third countries. Any insurance, reinsurance, technical assistance, brokering services, financing, financial assistance or any other related services, direct or indirect, are also prohibited. A wind-down period of six to eight months applies to existing contracts and “one-off” spot contracts, provided certain reporting requirements are met.

Again, it is prohibited to provide insurance or reinsurance for maritime transport of crude oil and refined petroleum products to third countries. European Union operators and entities may not provide any new insurance or finance contracts for the transport, in particular through maritime routes, of Russian oil to third countries. The Council has included a wind-down period of six months (until 5 December 2022) for closing out any existing contracts executed before 4 June 2022.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_22_2823

What is the impact of the ban on oil, on Russia and the EU?

The impact of the oil ban on Russia will be significant. Around half of its total oil exports go to the EU. In 2021, the EU imported €71 billion worth of crude oil (€48 billion) and refined oil products (€23 billion) from Russia.

Losing this leading lucrative market will have a significant structural effect on Russia, whose budget relies substantially on these oil revenues.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-19 22:29 | Report Abuse

we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg....every month as time ticks towards 5 Dec 2022, refining margin will only keep rising.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-20 11:53 | Report Abuse

Rosneft says replacing Russian oil at German refinery will cause fuel price jump

https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/08/13/rosneft-germany-refinery

The European Union plans an almost-complete embargo of Russian barrels by year-end, and is trying to wean itself off Russian crude imports, which have fed inland refineries in Germany.

“The replacement of even a part of Russian supplies will lead to underloading of the plant and a sharp increase in the cost of petroleum products, the shortage of which is already a serious threat to the German consumer market today.”

Posted by probability > 2022-08-20 13:13 |

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Posted by Investing_Bursa > 2022-08-20 14:06 | Report Abuse

@probability- we shd all be grateful for your sharing and updates . Thanks bro! I seldom comment here because there just too much nonsense comments which does not add value to any discussion.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-20 15:17 | Report Abuse

So many ikan bilis going to get bunuh in this forum kaka

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-20 15:45 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-20 15:46 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-20 15:46 |

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