Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-20 15:48 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-08-20 16:57 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-08-20 17:00 |

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Posted by probability > 2022-08-20 17:03 | Report Abuse

Russia’s Gazprom abruptly imposes three-day maintenance on Nord Stream 1
Ruth Liao

19-Aug-2022

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2022/08/19/10797713/russia-s-gazprom-abruptly-imposes-three-day-maintenance-on-nord-stream-1/

Russian producer Gazprom on 19 August announced three days of maintenance on Nord Stream 1 starting on 31 August, curtailing all gas flows on the key pipeline to Europe.

“The prospect of Gazprom shutting down Nord Stream 1 for three days is only going to spook the market. Gas prices jumped at the very end of the trading day as the maintenance was announced and could easily rise further on Monday as buyers assess whether they really believe the pipe will return to service as stated by the Russian supplier,” said Tomas Marzec-Manser, Head of Gas Analytics at ICIS.

Marzec-Manser added that the three day duration would likely be taken “with a massive pinch of salt” by the market, as concerns would likely persist on whether the pipeline even returns to service, on time or at all.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-20 18:18 | Report Abuse

The other alternative replacement for natural gas is diesel for home heating and factories energy need.

Coming winter the diesel crack spread will go higher.

Q1 2022, the Average refining crack increased from
1. Gasoline cracks from USD 7.1/bbl to USD 17.8/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 5.8/bbl to USD 21.6/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.3/bbl to USD 16.2/bbl.

First half 2022 Average refining cracks increased from
1. Gasoline crack from USD 8.5/bbl to USD 26.4/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 6.4/bbl to USD 36.6/bbl,
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.9/bbl to USD 27.7/bbl

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-20 21:34 | Report Abuse

Europe is ramping up its purchases of diesel from Russia and Asia as it burns the fossil fuel instead of natural gas
Harry Robertson Aug 18, 2022, 7:22 PM

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-20 21:41 |

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Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-20 22:23 |

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Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-20 22:38 |

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Posted by probability > 2022-08-20 22:39 | Report Abuse

@Zhuge, just to be 100% correct, i used 210k bpd as effective sales volume. The actual name plate capacity of the vietnam new refinery is around 250k bpd. In any case, USD 5 billion or in the worst case USD 3 billion as a market cap for HY considering its debt, should be a very fair valuation of 40 yr old refinery.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-20 22:51 | Report Abuse

Wait for Q2 2022 result to be released.
If EPS=2.00 or > 600 million per quarter.
One year net PAT > 2 billion.
22 billion, PER=11 is very fair.
Hope that EPS=2.00 will come true.
Don't quote me, forecast only.

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-21 07:28 |

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Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-21 07:40 | Report Abuse

Is higher borrowings and payables per Q1 BS a sign of problem? I don’t think so!

The YOY INCREASE in borrowing and account payables totaling $1,493 mil is to finance the INCREASE in inventory and account receivables totaling $1,558 mil.
The increases mentioned above are absolutely normal when the company’s revenue increase by $2,755 mil YOY (from $2,198 mil to $4,953 mil).

Here are the YOY CHANGES:

Inventory +$1,106 mil
Trade& other receivables +$452 mil
————————————-
Total inventory & receivables +$1,558
The increase of $1,558 mil is due to substantially higher crude and refined products prices and higher sales.

Nett borrowings +$517 mil
Trader & other payables +$976 mil
—————————————-
Total debts & payables +$1,493 mil
The increase is fully used to finance the increase in inventory & receivables .

The property and plant is debt free!
Property and plant’s book value $2,080 mil.
Shareholders equity $1,988 mil.
As such the plant and property is 96% financed by shareholders equity.

The borrowings and payables are 100% employed in financing the normal trades which have quick turnover - inventory turnover is about 1.6 months and receivables is about 1 month. Therefore, the financing cycle is about 2.6 months (1.6+1.0 ). In NO way will the company gets into cashflow problem. Trade finance from the banks is commonly for 6 months repayment whereas the financing cycle of the business is only 2.6 months.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-21 09:33 | Report Abuse

From Petron Corp on commodity swap: Q1 payout Peso 1,677 million and H1 Peso 2,488 million to its counteryparty

Commodity Swaps H1. The Group has outstanding swap agreements covering its oil requirements, with various maturities. Under the agreements,payment is made either by the Group or its counterparty for the difference between the hedged fixed price and the relevant monthly average index price.
Total outstanding equivalent notional quantity covered by the commodity swaps were 14.3 million barrels and 24.6 million barrels as of June 30, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively. The estimated net payouts for these transactions amounted to (P2,448) and (P543) as of June 30, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively

Commodity Swaps Q1. The Group has outstanding swap agreements covering its oil requirements, with various maturities. Under the agreements,payment is made either by the Group or its counterparty for the difference between the hedged fixed price and the relevant monthly average index price.
Total outstanding equivalent notional quantity covered by the commodity swaps were 21.8 million barrels and 24.6 million barrels as of March 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively. The estimated net payouts for these transactions amounted to (P1,677) and (P543) as of March 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-21 10:58 | Report Abuse

Is the above petron corp commodity swap mean on December 31,2021 the oil swap contract enter is 24.6 million barrel at hedge fixed price for month Jan -Dec 2022.

Jan to March mature contracts (24.6-21.8) million and payout to counterparty Peso 1,677 million.

Jan to June mature contracts (24.6-14.3) million and payout to counterparty Peso 2,448 million.

Thus this mean the hedged fixed price jan to June is higher than the relevant monthly average index price thus petron corp payout Peso 2,448 million to the counterparty?

If so why Petron corp hedged at high price? When petron corp is buyer of oil and not producer of oil

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-21 10:59 | Report Abuse

Or am I get its wrong when payout (P1,677) Q1 and (P2,448) H1 mean the counterparty pay petron corp?

Posted by probability > 2022-08-21 11:17 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-21 11:24 |

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Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-21 11:24 | Report Abuse

The target price of Hiaptek cannot be achieved because KLSE is a bear market.

Not very true you need to check when the target price was given the steel price was on uptrend and heading toward CNY6000 per ton unfortunately steel is now on retreat.

Steel rebar futures extended their retreat and dropped below CNY 3,940 on Friday, a three-week low, as a record-breaking heatwave in several regions of top consumer China led to overheated power grids, driving local governments to impose strict power rationing for factories of all industries. The event added to demand woes following concerning industrial output and retail sales data, compounding fears of the financial stability of the Chinese property sector despite the emergency rate cut by the PBoC. Overall sentiment was also pressured by continued Covid restrictions in large cities and political tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

People like probability is doing a lot of good in i3 to update us on daily cracks spread.
Posted by probability > Aug 18, 2022 10:34 AM | Report Abuse X
spiked as predicted:
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

1. Diesel cracks USD 42.34/bbl
2. Gasoline cracks USD 12.04/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks USD 34.10/bb

And moving forward why these cracks spread can be even better due to Russia NG supply cut to EU and upcoming Russia oil and fuel products boycott.

You cannot change what is in the past but you can pick up from where you fall and and seek the oportunities ahead.
It is not easy to earned money in Bursa otherwise everyone will be a millionaire. Just learn from the mistakes and be humble to learn from others and move on. The sun will still rises from east and sets on the west tomorrow no matter what.

Posted by OTB > 2022-08-21 12:05 |

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Posted by probability > 2022-08-21 12:07 | Report Abuse

THE 'NEXT HIT' :

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/072722-refinery-news-roundup-some-maintenance-continues-in-russia

As of June 30, complex refining margins increased 160% from February 22 to Rub21,000/mt ($382/mt), while simple refining margins quadrupled, reaching Rb5,000/mt over the same period, Petromarket told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Finding alternative outlets for fuel oil and the switch to bitumen production in the summer months has also provided a relief to less complex refineries whose storages were flooded with fuel oil as international buyers avoided taking it, according to market sources. However, the situation might reverse again as the road repair and construction season ends with the advent of cold temperatures, and refineries increase fuel oil production.

The situation appeared to improve in May as the bitumen production season started, helping to reduce the residual fuel oil yield, according to a recent report by S&P Global.

However S&P Global analysts expect the "NEXT HIT" to come when 700,000 b/d of diesel that typically flows to Europe will have to be rerouted.

The EU ban on Russian oil imports takes effect in early 2023.

..................

HY produces, 10.7 million barrels per qtr
= 118,800 bpd

at 46% yield, you have

= 55,000 bpd Diesel

So, how many HY like refinery you need to fill the gap of 700,000 bpd of Diesel?

= 700,000 bpd / 55,000 bpd
= 12 refinery
............

Remember most refinery in Europe is simple type that has yield less than 30% Diesel. The above is truly conservative. Such shortage can never be filled unless Russia finds alternative buyer for their Diesel to countries like India which would then need to export to EU - something that seems very difficult due to the way its sanctioned..

Lets look forward for the 'next hit' where EU basically loses equivalent 12 refinery while we admire the current beauty of Diesel crack

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Posted by OTB > 2022-08-21 12:19 |

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Posted by probability > 2022-08-21 12:26 | Report Abuse

THE ABOVE IS THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION I HAVE EVER SHARED HERE - kindly go through the above and ponder deep

some summary:
...........

- Big difference between Complex & Simple refinery margin
- Simple refinery produces Fuel Oil at negative crack and low margin of Gasoline will close their production. i,e they will act as a leverage to Complex refinery.
- HY Diesel production capacity
- Complex refinery like HY high yields of Diesel at 46% .
- Diesel product is having very high margins.
- Where to see Diesel margin, i.e its crack spread
- Unlike gasoline consumers who has a choice to postpone their travel or work from home, diesel consumers do not have a choice as they are consumed by heavy machinery & transportation equipment essential for manufacturing of goods & transportation.
- Imminent Natural gas shortage in EU & winter will further increase diesel demand before the sanction takes full effect
- Russian sanction has barely taken effect (their exports had only reduced 5% so far).
- 12 refinery equivalent production of Diesel is not replaceable in 6 months.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-21 14:11 | Report Abuse

OMG, EU is still importing 820,000 bpd Diesel....

https://graphics.reuters.com/EUROPE-DIESEL/RUSSIA/egpbkdyzbvq/chart.png

Posted by probability > 2022-08-21 14:11 | Report Abuse

Russian diesel exports grow in July despite sanctions

www.nasdaq.com/articles/russian-diesel-exports-grow-in-july-despite-sanctions

Still, Russian diesel exports rose to 963,357 barrels per day (bpd) in July, up by 1.15% on the year and the highest since March this year, according to data from Energy analytics firm Vortexa.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-21 14:19 | Report Abuse

EU is panicking and trying to stock as much as possible for winter and 2023

Posted by probability > 2022-08-21 15:29 | Report Abuse

The below answers why EU is importing more Diesel presently.

https://energypost.eu/eus-latest-sanctions-on-russian-oil-what-are-they-and-will-it-work/

Q2: Can Europe cope without Russian oil?

A2: Global crude flows are changing quickly. In the past few months, Europe has started to import more oil from the United States, West Africa, and the Middle East. European refiners seeking substitutes for Urals blend could turn to crude oil streams from Norway, Nigeria, Iraq, and the United States, although spot cargoes of many crude oil streams are limited in a tight market. Replacing lost volumes from Russia is no small task, but refiners frequently adjust to changing supply conditions.

The drop in Russian exports in the past two months has been lower than expected. Even as more oil and gas majors and commodity traders have stopped lifting Russian cargoes, the country has been able to sell more volumes to Asia, particularly India.

Because there is a phase-in period before the sanctions take place, it is possible that Russian oil exports to Europe will increase in the next six to eight months before the trade becomes illegal.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-21 15:48 | Report Abuse

https://energypost.eu/eus-latest-sanctions-on-russian-oil-what-are-they-and-will-it-work/

The significance of the Shipping Insurance ban
..............................................

A critical part of the sanctions package (Article 3n) concerns shipping insurance.

After a six-month phase in period, EU companies cannot provide “technical assistance, brokering services or financing or financial assistance, related to the transport, including through ship-to-ship transfers, to third countries of crude oil or petroleum products” from Russia. The United Kingdom is expected to follow suit.

Cutting off shipping insurance and reinsurance from the European Union and United Kingdom — the heart of the maritime insurance industry:

— will hinder Russia’s ability to redirect crude oil and petroleum products to other regions.

........

I see other regions (like India / China) if at all provide their own maritime insurance to enable importing of russian oil, would rather buy russian crude oil at a discount and make hefty profit at their refinery than buying refined products from russia to compete with their own refined products.

Its also highly possible that EU will restrict Import of refined products from countries like India & China that import oil from russia.

This effectively means refinery that produce 960,000 bpd of Diesel in russia will be going offline.

All refineries outside russia will be the king makers then.

Posted by sharemarket21 > 2022-08-21 16:06 | Report Abuse

The same bunch of roasted, still roasting and already roasted commenting here. The same who commented during the peak and still delusional until now. Yet some fools who commented their upmost gratitude. That's how we cashed out while you are still holding onto to your paper losses. Just move aside and let the newbies comment already.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-21 16:27 | Report Abuse

do the maths in terms of refining capacity from below figure and rising demand

This effectively means refinery that produce 960,000 bpd of Diesel in russia will be going offline.

Posted by VTrade > Aug 21, 2022 4:10 PM | Report Abuse

Any possible impact on saluran 2
If dibuka ?

Posted by Investing_Bursa > 2022-08-21 18:25 | Report Abuse

It’s going to be a rather interesting week ! Cheers

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-21 19:51 | Report Abuse

It will be an interesting next week as many listed companies will announced their Q2 result.

For Hengyuan the cracks spread Q2 are better then Q1 as indicated by Petron Corp Q2 report.
Q1 2022, the Average refining crack increased from
1. Gasoline cracks from USD 7.1/bbl to USD 17.8/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 5.8/bbl to USD 21.6/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.3/bbl to USD 16.2/bbl.

First half 2022 Average refining cracks increased from
1. Gasoline crack from USD 8.5/bbl to USD 26.4/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 6.4/bbl to USD 36.6/bbl,
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.9/bbl to USD 27.7/bbl

I am sure Hengyuan will report the best ever gross profit for Q2 2022 and as of Q3 the Aug 19 cracks spread show retreat on Gasoline crack but increase in diesel and jet fuel spread compare to Fist half 2022 average refining crack.

1. Diesel cracks USD 42.34/bbl
2. Gasoline cracks USD 12.04/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks USD 34.10/bbl

The only unknow is on derivatives hedged (gain/loss). I am in dilemma should I sell my Insas and top up Hengyuan before the Q2 result?

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-08-21 21:06 | Report Abuse

It is better to wait for the result out 1st. Derivation hedged might cause the same problem as previous qtr result.

Posted by FreshMango > 2022-08-21 22:20 | Report Abuse

what are the chances for another big big operation losses

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-21 23:04 |

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Posted by OTB > 2022-08-22 00:00 |

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Posted by probability > 2022-08-22 00:04 | Report Abuse

From below, we can deduce the following for Petron Corp refinery:

Q2 2022 crack spread:

Gasoline: 26.4 x 2 - 17.8 = USD 35/brl
Diesel: 36.6 x 2 - 21.6 = USD 51/brl
Jet fuel: 27.7 x 2 - 16.2 = USD 39/brl

But since HY hedges, it lags by a month from above for Q2.

Posted by Sslee > Aug 21, 2022 7:51 PM | Report Abuse

Q2 are better then Q1 as indicated by Petron Corp Q2 report.

Q1 2022, the Average refining crack increased from
1. Gasoline cracks from USD 7.1/bbl to USD 17.8/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 5.8/bbl to USD 21.6/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.3/bbl to USD 16.2/bbl.

First half 2022 Average refining cracks increased from
1. Gasoline crack from USD 8.5/bbl to USD 26.4/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 6.4/bbl to USD 36.6/bbl,
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.9/bbl to USD 27.7/bbl

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-22 09:01 | Report Abuse

Syndicates are coming in.... show time!!! =D

Oil up~ Crack up~ profit 999.99% up~ what are you waiting for???

Heng~

Ong~

Huatt ah~ =D

Posted by Eldon > 2022-08-22 10:42 | Report Abuse

Selling pressure still very strong leh..cannot goes up..

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-22 11:53 | Report Abuse

TA start to show signal to perform while awaitng FA (Q result) to reaffirm uptrend

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-22 12:04 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-22 12:17 | Report Abuse

Don surprise if RON97 reverse to increease 5sen in coming Wed. These is despite global crude oil decreasing, but crack spread for diessel remain elevated and gasoline also rebounding recently.

Aside coming Q2 windfall result, Refiner still enjoy bumper profit margin for next Q3 forward.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-22 12:47 | Report Abuse

Now I understand how Petronm do a commodity swap as hedging.
Example: Today Petronm just buy physical oil 1 million barrel at USD 80 per barrel.

Since the 1 million barrel on oil will reach PD then into storange tank and process into finish products in 30 days time hence Petronm make a commodity swap with counterparty at USD 80 per barrel for 600K barrel maturity 30 days later.

At the end of 30 days the average 30 days oil market price is now USD90 per barrel hence Petronm need to pay counterrparty 600K x USD(90-80) = USD 6 million.

For this commodity swap Pertonm make a derivatives lose of USD 6 million but that lose will actually be recovered by stock gain because the USD 80 per barrel 30 day ago purchased is now worth more (USD 90) in inventories gain.

Similarly if the average 30 days oil market price drop below USD 80 what gain from commodity swap will be losses in value of inventories.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-22 13:09 | Report Abuse

walao sslee...now only you understood this, so much of discussion between myself and Johnzhang on this earlier with notes and articles made:(


Posted by Sslee > Aug 22, 2022 12:47 PM | Report Abuse

Now I understand how Petronm do a commodity swap as hedging.
Example: Today Petronm just buy physical oil 1 million barrel at USD 80 per barrel.

Since the 1 million barrel on oil will reach PD then into storange tank and process into finish products in 30 days time hence Petronm make a commodity swap with counterparty at USD 80 per barrel for 600K barrel maturity 30 days later.

At the end of 30 days the average 30 days oil market price is now USD90 per barrel hence Petronm need to pay counterrparty 600K x USD(90-80) = USD 6 million.

For this commodity swap Pertonm make a derivatives lose of USD 6 million but that lose will actually be recovered by stock gain because the USD 80 per barrel 30 day ago purchased is now worth more (USD 90) in inventories gain.

Similarly if the average 30 days oil market price drop below USD 80 what gain from commodity swap will be losses in value of inventories.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-22 13:22 | Report Abuse

This is true theoretically loh!
But in practise it is not mah!

The explanation is as follow....if Petron is so concern of its 1 million barrel of crude....it should be more concern about its existing inventory which is about say 6x bigger mah!

Thus instead of Petron hedge 1 million barrel.....it end up hedging 6 million barrel loh!

Thus should....the crude price move against it ....this will magnify the losses by 6x whereas....if they gain....it will magnify 6x loh!

This why the previous owner Esso & Shell do not use derivative to hedge....bcos they view a single order of 1 million barrel price movement.....can easily be absorbed by the normal business operations loh!

Thus they do not like to use the double edge swap....that may lead speculation & gambling loh!

Posted by Sslee > 25 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Now I understand how Petronm do a commodity swap as hedging.
Example: Today Petronm just buy physical oil 1 million barrel at USD 80 per barrel.

Since the 1 million barrel on oil will reach PD then into storange tank and process into finish products in 30 days time hence Petronm make a commodity swap with counterparty at USD 80 per barrel for 600K barrel maturity 30 days later.

At the end of 30 days the average 30 days oil market price is now USD90 per barrel hence Petronm need to pay counterrparty 600K x USD(90-80) = USD 6 million.

For this commodity swap Pertonm make a derivatives lose of USD 6 million but that lose will actually be recovered by stock gain because the USD 80 per barrel 30 day ago purchased is now worth more (USD 90) in inventories gain.

Similarly if the average 30 days oil market price drop below USD 80 what gain from commodity swap will be losses in value of inventories.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-22 14:05 | Report Abuse

sslee, do not entertain stockraider. He is brain damaged..

Posted by KooSan > 2022-08-22 14:19 | Report Abuse

So in short, the profitability depends on how much the hedged? And whether the oil price increase?

Posted by Sslee

Now I understand how Petronm do a commodity swap as hedging.
Example: Today Petronm just buy physical oil 1 million barrel at USD 80 per barrel.

Since the 1 million barrel on oil will reach PD then into storange tank and process into finish products in 30 days time hence Petronm make a commodity swap with counterparty at USD 80 per barrel for 600K barrel maturity 30 days later.

At the end of 30 days the average 30 days oil market price is now USD90 per barrel hence Petronm need to pay counterrparty 600K x USD(90-80) = USD 6 million.

For this commodity swap Pertonm make a derivatives lose of USD 6 million but that lose will actually be recovered by stock gain because the USD 80 per barrel 30 day ago purchased is now worth more (USD 90) in inventories gain.

Similarly if the average 30 days oil market price drop below USD 80 what gain from commodity swap will be losses in value of inventories.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-22 14:30 | Report Abuse

NO...

Actual profit depends on the margin secured during hedging via Futures.

Gross profit depends on timing of real 'exchange' of goods & money.

Difference between the two, is hedging gain or loss.

Trust the above is simple enough to understand.

Posted by KooSan > Aug 22, 2022 2:19 PM | Report Abuse

So in short, the profitability depends on how much the hedged? And whether the oil price increase?

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-22 14:45 | Report Abuse

BEST RESULT EVER!!! =D

Heng~

Ong~

Huatt ah~ =D

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-22 14:50 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan have long term 5 year agreement with Shell station to supply refined product. The selling price to Shell station should based on spot price based on average Singapore crack spread. Hengyuan adopt swap crude oil/hedging refine product to mitigate volalite spot profit margin to shell station