Posted by KooSan > 2022-08-22 14:53 | Report Abuse

In previous quarter, the loss was also contributed by Russian crude.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-22 15:03 | Report Abuse

Petronm petrol retail stations profitability is depend on sales volume. As long as sales volume is above a certain break-even volume to cover the fixed overhead and variable operating cost, any sales above the breakeven volume will generate the profit.

Commercial sales like jet fuel will depend on Jet fuel crack spread.

Petronm simple refinery (original design to feed on low sulfur Tapis crude with typical yield 60% diesel and jet fuel, 20% gasoline and the balance LPG and byproduct. Note: Recent upgrade DHT to produce EUR0 5 diesel and also to take on crude with higher sulfur).

Refinery profit will depend on refining margin (cracks spread) and utilised capacity.
Note: Hengyuan refinery is a more complex and bigger capacity refinery.

Petronm commodity swap on crude oil is to protect the oil inventories value. During oil uptrend Petronm will incurred derivatives losses and during oil down trend will delivered derivatives gain.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-22 15:03 | Report Abuse

The writteback and reinstate crude volume in coming Q already worth RM 130m + RM 130m = RM 260m (EPS 86sen)

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-22 15:08 | Report Abuse

Q2 2022 result.
Can get EPS = 2.00 or net PAT > 600 million ?
This figure already record profit.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-22 15:08 | Report Abuse

60% diesel? Walao eh.. i have never heard of such refinery

where you get this info sslee :)

Posted by Sslee > Aug 22, 2022 3:03 PM | Report Abuse

Petronm simple refinery (original design to feed on low sulfur Tapis crude with typical yield 60% diesel and jet fuel, 20% gasoline and the balance LPG and byproduct.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-22 15:11 | Report Abuse

From Petronm 63th AGM minutes Q&A published at Petronm website.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-22 15:14 | Report Abuse

Interesting, do share the link if possible

Posted by Sslee > Aug 22, 2022 3:11 PM | Report Abuse

From Petronm 63th AGM minutes Q&A published at Petronm website.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-22 15:14 | Report Abuse

PetronM source local Malaysia low sulfur Tapis crude is however more expensive, trading at premium if compared to import crude from Saudi

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-22 15:18 | Report Abuse

https://www.petron.com.my/
Click Corporate Governance.
Click 6. Summary of proceeding and AppendixA.
Q&A New!

Posted by probability > 2022-08-22 15:30 | Report Abuse

Thanks Sslee, very interesting info. I guess those Q&A were from you :)...he he

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-22 15:37 | Report Abuse

https://www.petron.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/63rd-AGM-Summary-of-Proceedings-and-Appendix-A-Questions-from-Shareholders_2022.pdf

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-22 15:40 | Report Abuse

qqq3,
Go cycling or take your medicine to calm down or else you will went berserk again.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-22 15:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-22 15:55 | Report Abuse

By the way do minority shareholders know listed companies are required to publish the AGM minutes no later than 30 businese days after the general meeting?

SECTION A – DISCLOSURE ON MALAYSIAN CODE ON CORPORATE GOVERNANCE
Disclosures in this section are pursuant to Paragraph 15.25 of Bursa Malaysia Listing
Requirements.

Practice 13.6
Minutes of the general meeting should be circulated to shareholders no later than 30 business
days after the general meeting.

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-22 16:00 | Report Abuse

cum liao~

Posted by OTB > 2022-08-22 16:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by OTB > 2022-08-22 16:22 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by James_Bond > 2022-08-22 16:35 | Report Abuse

Peace! Don’t quarrel! Let’s earn money together!

Posted by FarkOtbMother > 2022-08-22 16:37 | Report Abuse

I also know OTB PENIPU

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-22 16:41 | Report Abuse

cum liao~


Heng~

Ong~

Huatt ah~~~
=D

Posted by OTB > 2022-08-22 16:42 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by OTB > 2022-08-22 16:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by LowClassCowardOTB > 2022-08-22 16:49 | Report Abuse

Lied conned cheat in HY and HiapTeik

Posted by OTB > 2022-08-22 16:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Macrullen > 2022-08-22 16:57 | Report Abuse

Play stock also can play til gaduh, cukuplah guys.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-22 16:59 | Report Abuse

The share price of Hengyuan breaks above 4.27, hope the uptrend has begun.
Hope all investors make a lot of money this round.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-22 17:01 | Report Abuse

@Zhuge, we will

Posted by probability > 2022-08-22 17:03 | Report Abuse

Refining margin live data is also rising...

Remember - the sanction has not even been made effective yet (another 4 months to go).

Posted by probability > 2022-08-22 17:13 | Report Abuse

Just see the price movement of the below pure refinery stock in India:

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/543373:BOM?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjs8fv7jNr5AhXNi_0HHY1CDkUQ3ecFegQIFhAg&window=6M

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-22 17:23 | Report Abuse

The true value of Hengyuan has not reflected yet. Likewise to Petronm.
Hope many foreign investors like EU or US will bid for Hengyuan since there is no sufficient refinery in the world now.
If the Chinese owner is not competent, EU or US investor can takeover.
Then the true value of Hengyuan will surface.
The present market cap of Hengyuan at 1.29 billion is too low.
The true value at least worth USD5 billion or RM22 billion.
My 2 cents comment.

Posted by IshraaqNor > 2022-08-22 18:21 | Report Abuse

Seperti yg saya nyatakan, permintaan O&G kian hari kian meningkat

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-22 18:29 | Report Abuse

HRC close 11 cents up to RM 4.30, it must be qqq3 bring the luck to HRC.

Posted by kl_guy > 2022-08-22 18:56 | Report Abuse

Good sign already break MA20 , need to break MA200 at 4.45. If tomorrow break , RM6.29 is the target .

Posted by probability > 2022-08-22 19:06 | Report Abuse

Europe Gas Jumps as Latest Russian Cut Plan Stokes Supply Fears

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/europe-gas-jumps-as-supply-fears-return-with-planned-pipe-works

European gas prices surged after Moscow’s move to shut a major pipeline ramped up fears of a prolonged supply halt, leaving Germany once again guessing as to how much Russian fuel it can count on this winter.

Benchmark futures rose as much as 16%, also driving up electricity prices to fresh records. The key Nord Stream pipeline will stop for three days of maintenance on Aug. 31, again raising concerns that the link won’t return to service as planned after the works. Europe has been on tenterhooks about shipments through the link for weeks, with flows resuming only at very low levels after it was shut for works last month.

......

Diesel crack is exploding - you will see it tomorrow

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-08-22 19:37 | Report Abuse

Good closing today. Everyone wait for Qtr result till neck also long now.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-22 20:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-22 20:33 | Report Abuse

Go to tech lar…Dont waste time here

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-08-22 20:35 | Report Abuse

Dont scold me as i know the truth like qqq333

Posted by LowClassCowardOTB > 2022-08-22 21:17 | Report Abuse

Conman coward OTB a BUSTARD.

Posted by OTB > 2022-08-22 21:34 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by OTB > 2022-08-22 22:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2022-08-22 22:37 | Report Abuse

Check out HY refining margin tomorrow

You are going to see a pleasant surprise:)

.........................................

Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 42.98/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 34.54/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (11.35 + 3.84) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 15.19/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 42.98 ) + (0.07 x 34.54) + (0.35 x 15.19)+ (0.12 x 15.19)
= 19.77 + 2.42 + 5.31 + 1.82
= US $ 29.3 / brl
.................

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin of US $29.3/brl

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $29.3/brl) x (MYR 4.4/USD)
= 1.379 Billion MYR
...................

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-22 22:46 | Report Abuse

probability,
Can make a net PAT of 1.0 billion in Q2 2022 and Q3 2022 respectively or an EPS of 3.00 ?
Is the above assumption possible ?

Posted by probability > 2022-08-22 22:53 | Report Abuse

@Zhuge, i think going forward the hedging loss will become minimal and can even turn into hedging gain as expansion of refining margin peaked in June 22'.

This effectively means the gross profit we calculate above using the crack spread is what will be reported actually.

In terms of taxation, i have no idea whether the rate will be higher than current.

I realized a lot of useful information related to derivatives or hedging on Q&A session with PetronM. I think the person who had asked these questions are very much from i3 :)

Refer Questions 15 till 21


https://www.petron.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/63rd-AGM-Summary-of-Proceedings-and-Appendix-A-Questions-from-Shareholders_2022.pdf

Posted by probability > 2022-08-22 23:21 | Report Abuse

@Zhuge, Lets replace the gross profit of 1.37 billion derived above on below simplified EPS calculation of Johnzhang.


Your estimated GP is $1,379 M
less hedging loss ($0M)
less Expenses ($180M)
-------------------------------------
PBT $1200M

Tax $100m @24% ($24M)
Tax $1100M @33% ($363M)
-----------------------------------------
NPAT $813M
EPS $2.71


Johnzhang posted > Aug 14, 2022 4:15 PM | Report Abuse

Hi probability, Thanks for the explaination.
Total expenses after GP (ie manufacturing, Adm, Dep & Amortisation, Finance) was $95M for Q1 2022, $100M per qtr average for 2021 and $106M per qtr average for 2020. Your $80+100 M = $180M expenses for Q2 is well above the actual in recent qtrs and therefore with huge buffer built-in.

Your estimated GP is $1,056 M
less hedging loss ($100M)
less Expenses ($180M)
-------------------------------------
PBT $776M

Tax $100m @24% ($24M)
Tax $676M @33% ($223M)
-----------------------------------------
NPAT $529M
EPS $1.76

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-22 23:23 | Report Abuse

Good information.
Thank you probability.

Posted by newbird33 > 2022-08-22 23:23 | Report Abuse

Pls dun be over confident on Hengyuan's results. As at 31.03.2022, it betted USD291M on refining margin swap contracts and has a loss of RM339M. That's why its EPS for Q1 was so low.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-22 23:27 | Report Abuse

newbird33, every qtr report you will find that figure there

its the hedging contract size for a month throughput (3.5 million barrels)

check all the qtrly report for the last 2 years - its value is proportional to the price of oil / refined products during the period at 3.5 m barrels

Posted by newbird33 > Aug 22, 2022 11:23 PM | Report Abuse

Pls dun be over confident on Hengyuan's results. As at 31.03.2022, it betted USD291M on refining margin swap contracts and has a loss of RM339M. That's why its EPS for Q1 was so low.

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-08-23 02:58 | Report Abuse

@probability don’t be over confident, last qtr with RM339M loss and this might be RM700mil loss for this qtr.

Posted by Ahahah > 2022-08-23 03:04 | Report Abuse

NPAT might be around 100mil plus only.