Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 21:06 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 21:12 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 21:14 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-01 21:14 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-01 21:17 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-01 21:18 | Report Abuse

Harga AYS dan Hiap Teck 1/9 is 43 cents and 27.5 cents kakaka

Adui rendahnys

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-01 21:19 | Report Abuse

HY today pun red after limited up in the morning. Siapa ada cakap shortists will mati one at the end pun shortists menang. Correct?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-01 21:21 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-01 21:22 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-01 21:23 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-01 21:25 | Report Abuse

Timing wrong pun sudah nak goreng leh. Ingat eps 222 sen can goreng but too many penkritik in the forum pun susah nak goreng. Haiyoh. Correct?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-01 21:26 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 21:32 |

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Posted by mf > 2022-09-01 21:36 | Report Abuse

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average

31,328.46

-181.97

0.57%

Nasdaq

NASDAQ Composite

11,695.24

-120.96

1.02%

Posted by yamitsu > 2022-09-01 21:46 | Report Abuse

https://www.bharian.com.my/bisnes/lain-lain/2022/08/995037/ron95-diesel-dijangka-ikut-harga-pasaran-tahun-depan.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-01 21:46 | Report Abuse

September is a confirmed bad month for stock in US Markets where BURSA takes its cue from.

BURSA generally negative post September moving to October.

Posted by JerichomyEmakGatai > 2022-09-01 21:49 | Report Abuse

Jerichomy , Boss saya cakap , tanya loo bolih saya main loo punya emak. CIUM pu ki and hisap tek tek. Bolih bagi loo punya emak hisap saya punya lan chio. Saya mahbur rahman superivisour di sin internet cafe. Loo TAK mahu saya kacau loo bagi loo emak saya tidur.

Posted by upshare > 2022-09-01 22:07 | Report Abuse

Tomolo may be below rm 5

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-01 22:10 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-01 22:11 |

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Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-01 22:14 | Report Abuse

counters where you see these suay people
like khatu, dragon and Mike Cheat You Crazy always drops like a dead body from Penang Bridge,
its an F1 race to the bottom.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-01 22:17 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-01 22:17 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 22:27 |

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Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-01 22:28 | Report Abuse

got nothing to do with superstition
or
bad luck
just that Syndicate Gangs who are dumping shares massively just loves to hire these 3 Share Killers ... => khatu, dragon and Mike Cheat You Crazy

Posted by gemfinder > 2022-09-01 22:31 | Report Abuse

Gameover la. So many time trapped bilis. Suda jadi busuk di hati bilis

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 22:31 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 22:33 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-01 22:33 |

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Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-01 22:35 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 22:37 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 22:42 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-01 22:44 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 22:45 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-01 22:57 |

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Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-01 22:59 | Report Abuse

Mike Cheat You Crazy had gone frenitically frantic
The Truth hurts right?

:)

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-09-01 23:02 | Report Abuse

Sslee

MoneyMakers
Walao Mogas crack spread collapse until (-negative)

Hope by now you can understand why HRC doing the hedging?

In high refining margin period your realised physical refining margin is high but your profit before tax will be lower because of hedging derivative loss.

But when refining margin U turn (lower) your realised physical refining margin is low but your profit before tax will be higher because of hedging derivative gain.

I'm sorry Sslee, i don't really get your point.

How does lower crack spread of D1N1 from 9.67 to -0.637 would be a gain in reduce the losses in hedging.

if we sell the gasoline 92 now we would be in loss and how does negative crack spread would be a gain here. Unless, if they purchased a lower crude oil and crack spread is higher then would increase the revenue.

I'm sorry but trying to resonate your explanation.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 23:04 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-09-01 23:07 |

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Posted by JerichomyEmakGatai > 2022-09-01 23:08 | Report Abuse

Hey asssssholeeee below. Saya bangkala mahbur rahman.Boss ada cakap itu EMAK Jerichomy bolih HISAP LAN CHIO BANKALA.Saya sikalang melor chok lan chio saya. Saya mahu cium pu ki emak Jerichomy.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2022-09-01 23:12 | Report Abuse

Mogas crack spread alrdy negative (-) @ refiner sell product at loss

WORST fundamental ever..refiners overproduce when crack spread high - now got too much inventory

Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-01 23:13 |

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Posted by UlarSawa > 2022-09-01 23:15 | Report Abuse

Ya kah. So bad meh. Another 20% alot leh. You sure baru say leh. If tikam tikam only not good like this to scare ppl leh. Nanti TiGong punish you black heart leh. Haiyoh. Correct?

MoneyMakers

Just waiting syndicate big dump

HY low-floating shares @ few big sell orders (syndicate run) easily collapse 15%/20%

59 seconds ago

Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 01:32 | Report Abuse

@Rabbit2,

Could the cash flow hedge and the cost of hedging of HY in Q2 results not related to the refining margin at all?

My feeling is that it could be purely related to their USD DEBT and interest charges due to exchange rate movement.

https://vinodkothari.com/2022/02/guide-to-hedge-accounting-under-ind-as-109-ifrs-9/

Accounting of Cashflow Hedges

A cash flow hedge is a hedge of the exposure to variability in cash flows that

1 - is attributable to a particular risk associated with a recognised asset or liability (such as all or some future interest payments on variable rate debt) or a highly probable forecast transaction or a firm commitment in respect of foreign currency and

2 -could affect the statement of profit and loss. An example of a cash flow hedge is the hedge of future highly probable sales in a foreign currency using a forward exchange contract. Another example of a cash flow hedge is the use of a swap to change the future floating interest payments on a recognised liability to fixed rate payments.

....

If you see HY Q2 gross profit before the derivative losses as described in section A10 (of about 500 million) it is about 1.4 billion exactly as i had predicted earlier.

The Refining Margin Swap - NOTIONAL VALUE value is only around 250m USD. This is not the margin itself but the CONTRACT SIZE, i.e barrels x hedging price/brl. As such their hedging quantity of crude or refined products in barrels should be about 3 million only (about a month throughput)

https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/notional-value/

Refer my below message before QTR results:


Posted by probability > Aug 30, 2022 1:42 PM | Report Abuse

Dear all,

just so that you dont misinterpret what shared by Zhuge above, kindly use the below as a very fair guidance for Q2 results as per my discussion with Johnzhang earlier.

The derivative loss, will equally match the gross profit that will be reported higher than 1,056 below which can possibly hit 1.4 billion above.

Expect Q3 PAT to be higher than Q2 as all the derivate loss will disappear by then.


Posted by Johnzhang > Aug 14, 2022 4:15 PM | Report Abuse

Hi probability, Thanks for the explanation.

Total expenses after GP (ie manufacturing, Adm, Dep & Amortisation, Finance) was $95M for Q1 2022, $100M per qtr average for 2021 and $106M per qtr average for 2020. Your $80+100 M = $180M expenses for Q2 is well above the actual in recent qtrs and therefore with huge buffer built-in.

Your estimated GP is $1,056 M
less hedging loss ($100M)
less Expenses ($180M)
-------------------------------------
PBT $776M

Tax $100m @24% ($24M)
Tax $676M @33% ($223M)
-----------------------------------------
NPAT $529M
EPS $1.76

The upside are :
1. lower expenses than the $180M built-in the calculation
2. Higher GP from significantly higher Diesel yield (46 vs 34%) and lower Fuel oil.

The reservation i have if the Management's actual hedging deviate from the model described by you. Let's wait for the QR with much excitement.

We look forward to the exciting QR.



Posted by probability > Aug 14, 2022 4:39 PM | Report Abuse

Well summarized John, thanks

Any higher GP reported than $1,056 will result equally higher hedging loss to give back the same after hedging loss of $956.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 01:32 | Report Abuse

The reason the Refining Margin Swap - Notional value decrease/increase on the financial statement is because HY renew the contract monthly as per the current market pricing of commodity, along with cash market transaction, and thus it changes in proportion to the commodity price changes.

The refining margin is continuously hedged to the latest available crack spread. It is updated monthly - approximately.

It function exactly as per the model presented here earlier:

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-06-11-story-h1624320379-HENGYUAN_derivatives_loss_on_Q1_22_completely_clarification.jsp

Posted by probability > 2022-09-02 01:33 |

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Posted by NESARAJAH1 > 2022-09-02 01:40 | Report Abuse

Long story all. Caution. Good Luck. RIP

Posted by NESARAJAH1 > 2022-09-02 01:47 | Report Abuse

I ll buy at 3.90 Be prepared for losses. Have a Good Sleep

Posted by James_Bond > 2022-09-02 07:08 | Report Abuse

OMG! OMG! OMG! Crack spread dropped to minus territory! Brent oil crashed to USD92!

Posted by Jerichomy > 2022-09-02 07:22 |

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