Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-10 11:06 | Report Abuse

I3lurker,
An IPP contract is different from BOT contract. IPP get to keep the plant forever wherease BOT is for 25 years only hence all inflation already account for in the contract and you can expect a consistant income for the 25 years.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-10 11:12 | Report Abuse

Sorry very sorry har...
If I am wrong
I am a very fast temper person
Do not need to talk so much about irr
Icon8888, Dk66 and probility had already talked a lot.

It better to focus on the Dk66 most reliable relative valuation . It is the most reliable methodology for power plant business, coupled with Icon8888 IRR analysis, no evil can destroy it.

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-10 11:13 | Report Abuse

I am not going to argue with you.
since you are going to dump it at RM1.50 so whats the point?

Posted by Sslee > May 10, 2020 11:06 AM | Report Abuse
I3lurker,
An IPP contract is different from BOT contract. IPP get to keep the plant forever wherease BOT is for 25 years only hence all inflation already account for in the contract and you can expect a consistant income for the 25 years.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-10 11:19 | Report Abuse

Extracted from Vietnam Government decree.

Article 4. Method of determination of PPA price for thermal power plants

PPA price of a thermal power plant in the base year (VND / kWh) is determined in the following formula:

= P G + P B

1. P G (VND / kWh) is the generation price of the base year and is determined by the following formula:

P G = FC + FOMC b + VC b

Inside:

FC: Average fixed price is determined in accordance with Article 5 of this Circular (VND / kWh);

FOMC b : Fixed price for operation and maintenance in the fundamental year is agreed upon by the two parties in accordance with Article 6 of this Circular (VND / kWh);

VC b : Variable price The base year is determined in accordance with Article 7 of this Circular (VND / kWh).

CLEARLY O&M COST IS INCLUDED IN PPA

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-10 11:26 | Report Abuse

The method of pricing an electricity power purchase agreement (PPA) is regulated under Circular 56 of the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) dated 19 December 2014, as amended (Circular 56/2014). Circular 56/2014 will govern PPA of (i) power plants which are not multi-target strategic hydroelectric plants (nhà máy thủy điện chiến lược đa mục tiêu), independent BOT power plants, power plants using renewable energy, and (ii) power plants without a separate mechanism issued by the MOIT.

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-10 11:31 | Report Abuse

The method of pricing an electricity power purchase agreement (PPA) is regulated under Circular 56 of the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) dated 19 December 2014, as amended (Circular 56/2014). Circular 56/2014 will govern PPA of (i) power plants which are not multi-target strategic hydroelectric plants (nhà máy thủy điện chiến lược đa mục tiêu), independent BOT power plants, power plants using renewable energy, and (ii) power plants without a separate mechanism issued by the MOIT.

Fixed Capacity Price is a fixed number which is pre-determined throughout the entire economic life of the project. Fixed Capacity Price is calculated so that the internal of return of the power plant project will not exceed a regulatory rate (i.e. 10% or 12% depends on each case).

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-10 11:33 | Report Abuse

sslee

dun confuse yourself

Public Bank TP => RM1.13 per share

thats easy to understand

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-10 12:03 | Report Abuse

i3lurker,

this information very vague lah...
doesn't convey any meaningful information


"The method of pricing an electricity power purchase agreement (PPA) is regulated under Circular 56 of the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) dated 19 December 2014, as amended (Circular 56/2014)."


how it affect the payment to Jaks ?
to what extend it is affect ?
not mention at all ?




i3lurker The method of pricing an electricity power purchase agreement (PPA) is regulated under Circular 56 of the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) dated 19 December 2014, as amended (Circular 56/2014). Circular 56/2014 will govern PPA of (i) power plants which are not multi-target strategic hydroelectric plants (nhà máy thủy điện chiến lược đa mục tiêu), independent BOT power plants, power plants using renewable energy, and (ii) power plants without a separate mechanism issued by the MOIT

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-10 12:09 | Report Abuse

Bukan ka

throughout... means keep revising throughout the life of the IPP

so tat the IRR is alway maintained at 12%

Otherwise ia kan bilang pre determined at d inception of the project

12% IRR is guaranteed by EVN and maintained throughout the economic life of the project



..... throughout the entire economic life of the project.


..... internal of return of the power plant project will not exceed a regulatory rate (i.e. 10% or 12% depends on each case).





Fixed Capacity Price is a fixed number which is pre-determined throughout the entire economic life of the project. Fixed Capacity Price is calculated so that the internal of return of the power plant project will not exceed a regulatory rate (i.e. 10% or 12% depends on each case).

10/05/2020 11:31 AM

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-10 12:12 | Report Abuse

macam in sharing information to tell Jaks is not a good buy at current price is too weak a solid fact or strictly under ISO compliancy requirements , is not acceptable at all
very misleading

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-10 12:15 | Report Abuse

Maintained at constant is d 12% IRR not the Fixed Capacity Price



DK66 Extracted from Vietnam Government decree. 

Article 4. Method of determination of PPA price for thermal power plants 

PPA price of a thermal power plant in the base year (VND / kWh) is determined in the following formula: 

= P G + P B 

1. P G (VND / kWh) is the generation price of the base year and is determined by the following formula: 

P G = FC + FOMC b + VC b 

Inside: 

FC: Average fixed price is determined in accordance with Article 5 of this Circular (VND / kWh); 

FOMC b : Fixed price for operation and maintenance in the fundamental year is agreed upon by the two parties in accordance with Article 6 of this Circular (VND / kWh); 

VC b : Variable price The base year is determined in accordance with Article 7 of this Circular (VND / kWh). 

CLEARLY O&M COST IS INCLUDED IN PPA

10/05/2020 11:19 AM

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-10 12:22 | Report Abuse

my good friends

Please lah....

do not make thing so difficult

DK66 relative valuation coupled with Icon8888 IRR analysis is no doubt the most useful and reliable valuation methodology to forecast the potential earning of a power plant for us to arrive at a good investment decision .

after such long a time , after so many arguments , after so many challenge from various parties , no one had successfully proven it is wrong or has doubts.

apa lu mau lagi????????

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-10 12:30 | Report Abuse

and i suppose i can add one more comment...IBs analysis n allocation of TP for any stock r not always CHUN CHUN one..to be taken with a pinch of salt ...if they r so brillant in giving out TPs there were be no LOSERS in KLSE lo...just follow them ...bo see one !!!

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-10 12:32 | Report Abuse

most of d IBs also follow one chinese phrase...SEE THE WIND THEN ONLY SET THE SAILS ...like that sure again bo see one

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-10 12:37 | Report Abuse

Klau kita kat sini diberitahu how much abt Hai Duong IPP has been disclosed to OTB bila meeting team Andy then tahu kita how much information PBB ada to make its assessment

Information to OTB = information to IB...

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-10 12:42 | Report Abuse

the power plant has not completed yet.
IB analyst still has not seen the profit contribution
they are not that stupid to construct their fair value now or TP based on forecast numbers
anyhow we are very happy , they are willing to adjust up their TP
that has clearly indicated that they do agree DK66 peer comparative valuation coupled with Icon8888 IRR analysis is a reasonable and reliable piece of work

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-10 12:44 | Report Abuse

DK 66,

i am just a satayman ,

nobody bother to tell me what I am saying is right or wrong

do you mind to tell me ?

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-10 12:44 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-10 12:46 | Report Abuse

always remember IBs provision of TPs r not God sent !!!...if they r then no LOSERS in KLSE...period !

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-10 12:49 | Report Abuse

DK66 bro...i do noticed that this i3furker has not or rather dare not step into ur territory but more on sslee...I WONDER WHY ???

Posted by Radeon > 2020-05-10 12:50 | Report Abuse

The stock not depend one or two person wealth to support, friend. if confident , just follow buy call.

Posted by Radeon > 2020-05-10 12:52 | Report Abuse

Karim... or someone else, dont overlook yourself pls.

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-10 12:53 | Report Abuse

Radeon...i second ur statement !

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-10 13:00 | Report Abuse

Aseng, You are right. Publicinvest is using SOP/RNAV method of valuation for JAKS. These valuation method does not take into consideration of future earnings.

And its report is dated before my latest article. Have they seen it ?

-------------------------------
Aseng the power plant has not completed yet.
IB analyst still has not seen the profit contribution
they are not that stupid to construct their fair value now or TP based on forecast numbers
anyhow we are very happy , they are willing to adjust up their TP
that has clearly indicated that they do agree DK66 peer comparative valuation coupled with Icon8888 IRR analysis is a reasonable and reliable piece of work
10/05/2020 12:42 PM

Aseng DK 66,

i am just a satayman ,

nobody bother to tell me what I am saying is right or wrong

do you mind to tell me ?
10/05/2020 12:44 PM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-10 13:03 | Report Abuse

elbrutus, it is because he can only say "they are different" and readers will not agree.

The vietnam Circular 56/2014 clearly establish a common guideline for all BOT PPA, and yet they are different ???

He has read the circular and still said O&M not included in PPA ???

----------
elbrutus DK66 bro...i do noticed that this i3furker has not or rather dare not step into ur territory but more on sslee...I WONDER WHY ???

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-10 13:08 | Report Abuse

Aseng, I do not agree with you. He is a smart guy, he knows the vietnam circular yet providing false information here. He knows Vinh Tan 1 is the right fit for JHDP. He got desperate after my article.

There is only one reason : He wants to buy cheap.

----------------
Aseng DK66,

You must know, not everyone is deserved to win.
Here go the saying
It is not my cup of tea
but it doesn't mean it is not a good tea
In a most simple language,
He is not the God chosen one for jaks.
If he is not the God chosen one, then even though you explain a 100 times,a 1000 times to him, a goldmine is still look like a shit hole to him. He can't tell why, he simply can not tell why. Very desperate, very frustrated.

What a pitiful guys.
10/05/2020 10:06 AM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-10 13:11 | Report Abuse

Aseng, remember I told you that the 12%IRR is based on Capacity payment alone ? The IRR has not considered the Energy payment. That is precisely the reason why Vinh Tan 1 has achieved 16% IRR as pointed out by probability.

----------------------
Fixed Capacity Price is a fixed number which is pre-determined throughout the entire economic life of the project. Fixed Capacity Price is calculated so that the internal of return of the power plant project will not exceed a regulatory rate (i.e. 10% or 12% depends on each case).

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-10 13:15 | Report Abuse

DK66 bro ...why am i not surprised at all ???...he/she has not a single ounce of interest in Ms JAKS but he/she stayed on n for what reason i honestly tak tahu ...is he/she here to advise/save newbies or we poor folks from kena conned by u guys or what ??? ..i really scrath my head !...i can only ponder n ask WHY ???...does he/she think we need his/her guidance ???...show us d facts n figures like you did n if proven to be substantiate...i shall shut my trap n call u SIFU !

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-10 13:18 | Report Abuse

elbrutus, you are not his target but there are folks that do not like to read articles.

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-10 13:18 | Report Abuse

* call him/her SIFU

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-10 13:21 | Report Abuse

elbrutus,

DK66 is protected by Aeng mah.......

but

don't worry about Sslee ,
he is a strong man,
he has very strong defend mechanism
no one can hurt him
I am sure



elbrutus >>DK66 bro...i do noticed that this i3furker has not or rather dare not step into ur territory but more on sslee...I WONDER WHY ???
10/05/2020 1:03 PM

Posted by OTB > 2020-05-10 13:22 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-10 13:23 | Report Abuse

??? Ada inconsistencies....


i3lurker sslee 

CIRCULAR 
METHOD OF DETERMINATION OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS, SEQUENCE OF INSPECTION OF POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENT (PPA) 

Main input factors used for calculation of average fixed price for thermal power plants (FC): 

..
e) Percentage of ownership capital and loan capital 

f is deleted 

g) Loan interests 


10/05/2020 12:44 PM

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-10 13:24 | Report Abuse

my good friends

I had helped to restore peace here

now is the time to say good bye for today

it is time to watch movie now

bye-bye

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-10 13:24 | Report Abuse

DK66 bro ..i m not particularly pissed off but having guys floating in n stepping on people toes without facts n figures is a NO NO for me to stomach ...like us laymen we sit back n observe...study n analyse n end of d day we make decisions...thats why we leave it to d SIFUs to guide us !!!

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-10 13:24 | Report Abuse

Posted by i3lurker > May 10, 2020 12:44 PM | Report Abuse

sslee

CIRCULAR
METHOD OF DETERMINATION OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS, SEQUENCE OF INSPECTION OF POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENT (PPA)

Main input factors used for calculation of average fixed price for thermal power plants (FC):

a) Total investment
b) Economic life
c) Average electricity energy annually generated
d) Proportion of auxiliary power and losses to transformers

e) Percentage of ownership capital and loan capital

f is deleted
g) Loan interests
h) Enterprise income tax rate
================


clearly, the selling price is set to give an IRR of 10-12% of equity........not total project cost.

take 25% of whatever was calculated previously, u will get a some what first degree accuracy of projected profits...........lol.....

assuing every thing goes according to plan........buut things don't alays go according to plan.......especially in relation to Jaks corporate expenses and corporate problems..........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-10 13:25 | Report Abuse

10, 2020 1:24 PM | Report Abuse X

Posted by i3lurker > May 10, 2020 12:44 PM | Report Abuse

sslee

CIRCULAR
METHOD OF DETERMINATION OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS, SEQUENCE OF INSPECTION OF POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENT (PPA)

Main input factors used for calculation of average fixed price for thermal power plants (FC):

a) Total investment
b) Economic life
c) Average electricity energy annually generated
d) Proportion of auxiliary power and losses to transformers

e) Percentage of ownership capital and loan capital

f is deleted
g) Loan interests
h) Enterprise income tax rate
================


clearly, the selling price is set to give an IRR of 10-12% of equity........not total project cost.

take 25% of whatever was calculated previously, u will get a some what first degree accuracy of projected profits...........lol.....

assuing every thing goes according to plan........but things don't always go according to plan.......especially in relation to Jaks corporate expenses and corporate problems..........

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-10 13:27 | Report Abuse

It is very easy to shut my mouth with disgrace. Just show the spreadsheet on IRR and prove that 12%IRR only meant JHDP is worth 26 cents in valuation to JAKS and I will quit Jaks forum and never speak a word again !

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-10 13:27 | Report Abuse

OTB bro ...he/she was not accorded d title SIFU yet unless he/she show us d facts /figures to back up his/her analysis...dont get me wrong ..ok

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-10 13:29 | Report Abuse

I will also withdraw all my articles !

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-10 13:30 | Report Abuse

dk............I leave the last part to u.............I too lazy, but actually very easy for you......

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-10 13:30 | Report Abuse

DK66 bro ...that will be d day he/she will be able to do that ...hahaha

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-10 13:33 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3
You are late. Oversleep or go cycling Ulu Klang and just come back?

I3lurker miss you a lot so next time no need to q at post office with bangla just call i3lurker will do.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-10 13:33 | Report Abuse

qqq3, is it also your opinion that 12% IRR is only 26 cents ??

Posted by OTB > 2020-05-10 13:36 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-10 13:36 | Report Abuse

d by DK66 > May 10, 2020 1:33 PM | Report Abuse

qqq3, is it also your opinion that 12% IRR is only 26 cents ??
=======

I don't know...u go o the calculation lah........I very lazy by nature.

and yes, just return from cycling........

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-10 13:36 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-10 13:38 | Report Abuse

DK66 bro ...let me summarise this episode ...UNTIL THESE GUYS PROVED OTHERWISE THERE IS NO NECESSITY WHATSOEVER FOR YOUR GOODSELF TO REMOVE YOUR HARDWORK ie articles from Ms JAKS FORUM ...it shud be d other way round !!!

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-10 13:41 | Report Abuse

Aseng, I gave my challenge, and the gang are not taking up the challenge. What does that mean ?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-10 13:44 | Report Abuse

elbrutus, I am a man of honor, I gave my words and I will not take it back !

Do you think they can do it ???

---------------------
elbrutus DK66 bro ...let me summarise this episode ...UNTIL THESE GUYS PROVED OTHERWISE THERE IS NO NECESSITY WHATSOEVER FOR YOUR GOODSELF TO REMOVE YOUR HARDWORK ie articles from Ms JAKS FORUM ...it shud be d other way round !!!
10/05/2020 1:38 PM