Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-11 13:44 | Report Abuse

Sarifah, i already got enormous amount of pressure from some readers in i3. I didn't expect one from you.

Posted by probability > 2020-05-11 13:45 | Report Abuse

dalam suratkhabar sudah declare Project IRR 12% (The star)...and 15% (The Edge 2015)

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-11 13:45 | Report Abuse

u think stock market is charity?


just because some one ends every post with thank you, he is right?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-11 13:46 | Report Abuse

dk u potentially can cause everyone harm....

Wat limit? Jz go n ask team Andy


DK66 sarifah, I m sorry that I could not please you. I m not superman. I have limits. Did that caused you any harm ?

11/05/2020 1:42 PM

Posted by probability > 2020-05-11 13:46 | Report Abuse

I can emphatize DK...just stay cool..let me handle sarifah for a while...

you take rest

Posted by DK66 > May 11, 2020 1:44 PM | Report Abuse

Sarifah, i already got enormous amount of pressure from some readers in i3. I didn't expect one from you.

Posted by probability > 2020-05-11 13:47 | Report Abuse

@sarifah, sudi terangkan what is you big concern now?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-11 13:49 | Report Abuse

Sarifah sugar level a bit low due puasa...

R u 100% sure it is Project IRR 12%?

probability dalam suratkhabar sudah declare Project IRR 12% (The star)...and 15% (The Edge 2015)

11/05/2020 1:45 PM

Posted by probability > 2020-05-11 13:52 | Report Abuse

yes Sarifah, i am 100% sure since:

(1) it came on news ( i can share the link if you want it)

(2) Equity IRR of 12% at 75% Debt is absolutely not attractive...nobody would be interested

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-11 13:53 | Report Abuse

Sarifah, please be reasonable.

If i cannot share freely base on my own will, I would rather stop.

Posted by probability > 2020-05-11 13:55 | Report Abuse

@DK, sarifah puasa today...low blood sugar can really cause havoc..

he is actually angry with nuisance qqq3 (lalat)

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-11 13:56 | Report Abuse

DK66,

I do not know what had happened to sharifah.

she has become very irrational now

let her rest for awhile

hopefully she will recover herself later

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-11 13:57 | Report Abuse

probability and Aseng, noted

Posted by DJoker89 > 2020-05-11 13:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-11 13:57 | Report Abuse

dk

This 12% IRR if came on news how can it be insider info?




probability yes Sarifah, i am 100% sure since: 

(1) it came on news ( i can share the link if you want it) 



DK66 Sarifah, please be reasonable. 

If i cannot share freely base on my own will, I would rather stop.

11/05/2020 1:53 PM

Posted by probability > 2020-05-11 13:59 | Report Abuse

ok 'outsider' info then

puas hati skrg?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > May 11, 2020 1:57 PM | Report Abuse

dk

This 12% IRR if came on news how can it be insider info?

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-11 14:01 | Report Abuse

sharifah,

12% IRR and 75:25 loan ration is the company press release

bukan Andy beritahu DK66

don't believe in insider news lah ....

situation can change any time, macam kali covid-19

sometime the boss , your good friends, also can not do anything , but drop the operation

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-11 14:01 | Report Abuse

Dear all,
Try to avoid the wrath of a lady.

It was me and i3luker get her angry at the first place.
My understanding IRR 12% for BOD 25 years is base of total project cost of USD 1,870 million.
But i3lurker understanding IRR 12% for BOD25 years is base of equity part USD 1,870 X 0.25= 467.5 million.

Thus Sarifah want DK66 to confirm with ALP IRR 12% BOD 25 year is base on which one?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-11 14:02 | Report Abuse

Yes Sslee

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-11 14:03 | Report Abuse

HaHa so u see which is whic



Aseng sharifah, 

12% IRR and 75:25 loan ration is the company press release 


probability yes Sarifah, i am 100% sure since: 

(1) it came on news ( i can share the link if you want it) 

(2) Equity IRR of 12% at 75% Debt is absolutely not attractive...nobody would be interested

11/05/2020 1:52 PM

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-05-11 14:06 | Report Abuse

DK66's article " Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance For JHDP ( 01/05/2020) "
has so far attracted 9000 visits ( as mentioned by DK66). Considered a hot & popular article .
He is using Vinh Tan 1 ACTUAL results to forecast JHDP plant's potential earnings which he thinks is the most straightforward & reliable .
He has clearly stated his reasons .
This is relative valuation ( or peer comparison valuation if we may call it ).
So far no other " sifu (s) " has (have) successfully disputed/disagreed this relative valuation method with facts & figures .
Barring unforeseen circumstances/factors & all other things being equal , we are of the view that this method is by far most sensible & reliable and holds water until it is proven otherwise by JHDP's plant ACTUAL results after its COD . This is our personal view . You need not rely on it . Do your own due diligence before making decision .
Everybody knows investment in stock market involves risks . There is no such thing as guarantee to win. Setting cut-loss & protect capital is crucial if things don't turn out our way.
Guarantee to win only happens in F/D placement with banks .
If you like the stock and have confidence , invest or keep your investment . If you don't like or lose confidence , don't invest or take/cut profit . It is that simple decision . This way , you can sleep better .

We are happy in our investment in Jaks after taking into consideration risks vs rewards ratio.

HAPPY INVESTING !!
__________________________________________________

DK66> Jaks Resources-The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance For JHDP

Conclusions

Earnings guidance provided by Vinh Tan 1 is by far the most straight forward and reliable estimate of JHDP's future earnings potential. Most evaluation methods require assumptions or management guidance and complicated computations. It is difficult for those without sufficient knowledge of those methodologies to express confidence.

Vinh Tan 1's earnings represents results from actual operation of a similar power plant in Vietnam which is also managed by a Chinese corporation.

Vinh Tan 1's earnings jibes with my previous estimates derived using various valuation methods.

This article concludes that JHDP is expected to deliver EPS of between RM0.30 to RM0.40 to Jaks. At PE of 10 to 15 times, Jaks is worth between RM3 to RM6.

I hope this article has raised your level of confidence in Jaks significantly.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-11 14:06 | Report Abuse

Aseng u hv not a clue....

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-11 14:06 | Report Abuse

sarifah, you lost faith in relative valuation already ?

Posted by probability > 2020-05-11 14:07 | Report Abuse

On what basis did i3lurker said this?

We have numerous news release stating project IRR of 12% & 15%
further we have seen Vinh Tan 1 earnings to justify

what substantiation did i3lurker provide


Posted by Sslee > May 11, 2020 2:01 PM | Report Abuse

Dear all,
Try to avoid the wrath of a lady.

It was me and i3luker get her angry at the first place.
My understanding IRR 12% for BOD 25 years is base of total project cost of USD 1,870 million.
But i3lurker understanding IRR 12% for BOD25 years is base of equity part USD 1,870 X 0.25= 467.5 million.

Thus Sarifah want DK66 to confirm with ALP IRR 12% BOD 25 year is base on which one?

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-11 14:09 | Report Abuse

the monkey here also know it is not insider information

Andy not even want to meet us
even though he meet us
pun macam tak meet
you still so naive to believe we could get some tips from the horse mouth




Posted by SarifahSelinder > May 11, 2020 1:57 PM | Report Abuse

dk

This 12% IRR if came on news how can it be insider info?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-11 14:09 | Report Abuse

No

Sarifah jz think this 12% IRR can be confirmed by team Andy if u jz ask so why don't u ask??

This is surely not insider info


DK66 sarifah, you lost faith in relative valuation already ?

11/05/2020 2:06 PM

Posted by probability > 2020-05-11 14:14 | Report Abuse

since its already an outsider info...nobody bothered to ask...

cukup penjelasan?

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-11 14:14 | Report Abuse

sharifah ,

if you do not like DK66 relative valuation , that I personally like the most

then

you read Icon8888 IRR backward calculation of net profit

200M profit per annum and 8% IRR is good enough , very reasonable and and most of the sifu here with a rght thinking mind will accept .


DK66's forecast is 196M

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-11 14:17 | Report Abuse

sharifah,

I agree , if we ask, then Andy will sure confirm it is true
but so far no one has met Andy.



Posted by SarifahSelinder > May 11, 2020 2:09 PM | Report Abuse

No

Sarifah jz think this 12% IRR can be confirmed by team Andy if u jz ask so why don't u ask??

Posted by probability > 2020-05-11 14:17 | Report Abuse

Tengok extract from article below:

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/jaks-wooing-tenaga-vietnam-power-plant

JAKS (fundamental: 0.65; valuation: 1.5) does not have the financial muscle to take on the project by itself, but it also does not want to give up a deal that offers it a high internal rate of return (IRR)

Sources say the project’s IRR is at least 15% because the power purchase agreement is on a take-or-pay basis, which requires Vietnam Electricity to pay for the power generated whether or not there is demand for it.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-11 14:18 | Report Abuse

HaHa

probability since its already an outsider info...nobody bothered to ask... 

cukup penjelasan?

11/05/2020 2:14 PM

Posted by KLou88 > 2020-05-11 14:19 | Report Abuse

Sarifah, you are so easy to influence by others, I suggest u put your money on FD or somewhere safe. Stock market is always a place with risk. If u are not stable or calm enough, u will lose all your money.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-11 14:20 | Report Abuse

Based on these 2 points OK ON


probability yes Sarifah, i am 100% sure since: 

(1) it came on news ( i can share the link if you want it) 

(2) Equity IRR of 12% at 75% Debt is absolutely not attractive...nobody would be interested

11/05/2020 1:52 PM


DK66 sarifah, you lost faith in relative valuation already ?

11/05/2020 2:06 PM

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-11 14:22 | Report Abuse

No the point is tat tat point can be confirmed by team Andy easily



KLou88 Sarifah, you are so easy to influence by others, I suggest u put your money on FD or somewhere safe. Stock market is always a place with risk. If u are not stable or calm enough, u will lose all your money.

11/05/2020 2:19 PM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-11 14:23 | Report Abuse

sarifah, to accurately use IRR, you need to have the following information,

1. the actual initial outlays (project cost may not equal actual outlays)
2. whether interest costs should be included (some text books suggest NO)
3. what interest rate to assume
4. the actual loan tenure ( max 18 years)
5. the repayment pattern
6. the depreciation policy
7. the maintenance cycle ( expected a major maintenance every 3 years)
8. the plant efficiency as it affect energy payment
9. the electricity demand
10. the expected electricity production

It is not enough to just confirm whether it is 12% project or equity IRR.

Do you think Andy will tell you exactly how the IRR is calculated ?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-11 14:31 | Report Abuse

dk

No need to make it so complicated

Team Andy confirmed if it is Equity IRR will do no need to know the actual calculations better thn now u r maling assumption

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-11 14:32 | Report Abuse

BUT

The relative valuation does inspire confidence

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-11 14:39 | Report Abuse

sarifah, personally, I have found myself a better place of confidence with relative valuation. I will not linger on IRR anymore than I already have. IRR is not so simple. That is facts.

You owe yourself a duty to seek confidence.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-11 14:47 | Report Abuse

That is why I like DK66 relative valuation
mnimum management guidance

Icon8888 , interest & loan repayment inclusive IRR calculation fit my common sense very well

I am more confident with my investment decision after reading these 2 article .




Posted by DK66 > May 11, 2020 2:23 PM | Report Abuse

sarifah, to accurately use IRR, you need to have the following information,

1. the actual initial outlays (project cost may not equal actual outlays)
2. whether interest costs should be included (some text books suggest NO)
3. what interest rate to assume
4. the actual loan tenure ( max 18 years)
5. the repayment pattern
6. the depreciation policy
7. the maintenance cycle ( expected a major maintenance every 3 years)
8. the plant efficiency as it affect energy payment
9. the electricity demand
10. the expected electricity production

It is not enough to just confirm whether it is 12% project or equity IRR.

Do you think Andy will tell you exactly how the IRR is calculated

Posted by buildvalue > 2020-05-11 14:55 | Report Abuse

DK66, can you please evaluate Pestech? what is the differences btw Jaks and Pestech?

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-05-11 14:56 | Report Abuse

Our view :
The derivation of IRR is in itself subject to many interpretations and uncertain by many authors .
So, some " sifus " may just use the % figure plucked from somewhere to twist to their own preference & understanding .
We still think the relative valuation is by far the most sensible & reliable .

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-11 14:57 | Report Abuse

This is a fair statement.

My opinion is that without the actual result from JHDP, Jaks will not command a very high PE.

My advice is employ a margin of safety if you should decide to buy.

-----------------
i3lurker purebull

it is the market interpretation of those results.

people doubt that market will ascribe high value to Jaks $

=> Even if $ is high, market will ascribe lower PE maybe 6 X

and that PE 6X while profitable for early buyers, will mean late entrants newbies may actually lose money.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-11 14:59 | Report Abuse

it is very attractive , do not be that lazy until you just demand a "buy" or "sell", read ICON8888 IRR analysis

Dk66 relative valuation + icon8888 IRR analysia is definitely a confirmation good buy signal to me at the current price with the initial Exit TP of around 2.5





Posted by SarifahSelinder > May 11, 2020 2:20 PM | Report Abuse


(2) Equity IRR of 12% at 75% Debt is absolutely not attractive...nobody would be interested

11/05/2020 1:52 PM

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-11 15:02 | Report Abuse

For years , Jaks CEO tells everyone he meets, uncles , aunties, fund managers and analysts about comparative method.....but only KYY responded and promptly lost $ 60 million..........



why all the other uncles , aunties, fund managers and analysts never responded and the share never go near comparative method?


who want to be next?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-11 15:04 | Report Abuse

who want to be next?

u want to be next?


OTB want to be next?


Otb even more fierce..........OTB got AXBXCXD = 248 million profits.

Posted by $$$ ^v^ GOODLUCK ^v^ $$$ > 2020-05-11 15:06 | Report Abuse

Jaks first target confirm Rm 1.17 to Rm1.20 . second target no news yet.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-11 15:07 | Report Abuse

y Aseng > May 11, 2020 2:59 PM | Report Abuse

it is very attractive , do not be that lazy until you just demand a "buy" or "sell", read ICON8888 IRR analysis
========

I guess u have to take Icon IRR and multiply by 0.25..........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-11 15:15 | Report Abuse

KYY is my adviser..........not the other way....


lucky this advisee make money on Jaks and not lose money.....

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-05-11 15:15 | Report Abuse

hi Philip, how much cash % do you recommend for early 30s? Like your 90 era....and stock %...

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-11 15:21 | Report Abuse

I do not know Pestech well enough to make comparison
-------------
buildvalue DK66, can you please evaluate Pestech? what is the differences btw Jaks and Pestech?
11/05/2020 2:55 PM

Posted by mf > 2020-05-11 15:31 | Report Abuse

https://www.bharian.com.my/berita/politik/2020/05/687548/berada-dalam-pn-umno-tiada-kuasa-penuh-ahmad-zahid?fbclid=IwAR3JU2NMaVTwe7hkE8NoR6K5TgOYl1WXqa1IBvgDZNcnLDzd5JgEckqYhw0