Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-23 12:32 | Report Abuse

I came in a bit too early again, with CU at 0.04. Looks like I'll have to become `a forced investor'. One consolation is its long expiry date. Don't want to recommend either buying or not buying it. But at the very least, buying at 0.035 is better than my 0.04:-P

Posted by Chengws > 2012-11-23 12:34 | Report Abuse

But Mat I also bought some at 0.04 just need some more advise see whether can buy on 0.035 to average up :)

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-23 15:10 | Report Abuse

So we're in the same boat then:-) Consider these before you make a decision:
1) it might be too early and the price too low to average up.
2) if the mother's downtrend continues, the CU might possibly go even lower. So why not buy later to average up, whenever that may be?

"But what if it goes up?" --- Well, that's a good thing, isn't it?...because you already have the CU at 0.04.

Given the general market currently, maybe it's better to be more prudent. That doesn't mean stay away from the market - just to be more cautious. Like buying only half of what you had intended to buy to hedge: if the price goes up, we'll still get something. If it goes down, we still have the remaining capital to either average up or to buy something else or to just sit and wait.

Posted by Chengws > 2012-11-23 15:16 | Report Abuse

Ok Mat Thank for your advise.

Posted by pathew > 2012-11-23 15:17 | Report Abuse

Wise MC:)
I'm thinking of keying in at current prices

Posted by Chengws > 2012-11-23 16:43 | Report Abuse

Already 0.03 planing to get some more.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-23 16:47 | Report Abuse

It's always a risk when we participate in the market regardless of the quality and potential of counter and whatever the technical analysis charts may say. There are variables which we simply don't have any means to quantify. Fundamental, TA or whatever, there's always the possibility things won't go as we project now. If one is terribly fearful about making losses and simply can't accept losing money, the best way is to just keep it in the bank.

For the rest of us, since we want to TRY and make profits from the market, we HAVE to take risks knowing that there's the possibility we might lose some of it should things not work out. "Managing the risks" is the best that we can do and we should have a syatem that we're comfortable with.

My general strategy is this: no matter how convinced I am of a counter, I'd never stake everything in a "Win or die" trade. I must ensure that, should it not work out, I will just be "stung" or at worst, "hurt". But I will definitely be able to live and fight another day.

When I like a counter but am not sure whether a certain time and price are right to buy - there's the possibility if I don't buy, it might go up in the near future. On the other hand, if I buy and it goes down, I'll feel like an idiot... not to mention having my capital stuck. So what to do to overcome this dilemma?

One way is a form of hedging: use a certain percentage on the planned capital - maybe one-third - to buy the counter. This way, if it does immediately go up, I'll benefit since I already have a position. I might use another one-third or even all to buy more if I feel the counter has the strength to rise further.

If the counter goes down, tough. But at least I still have the remaining two-thirds of the planned capital. That means I have the ability to average up at a certain price. Having this resource and power gives one power and choices.

This strategy has worked for me a number of times in the past. With SKPetro, for example, after its merger. Everyone knows it is a quality counter. But many didn't buy when it slid to below 2.00, fearful it might go lower. I went in at 1.96, using only one-third of the planned capital. Would have bought more had it gone down significantly lower than that - maybe at 1.80 or so. But the lowest was 1.92... and then it went up. I benefited because I had a position. Might not have gotten as much profit compared to if I had used all to buy. But that's okay because I still got something. One-third of a cake is better than none.

It's the same with TM or TM-CU, whatever it may be. No one can deny that it's a quality counter and the price is now "reasonable" as compared to what it was some weeks ago. But how do we *really* know it has bottomed and will go up again? WE DON'T. That's why I'm being cautious and using this form of hedging. With CU, I've decided to use only one-third of the planned capital for now. This way, if it gets lower, I will have the choice of whether to average up or to just wait some more. "Choice" is power.

Posted by karennng > 2012-11-26 15:39 | Report Abuse

Mat Cendana, very logical & sensible strategy. Not too much greed.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-11-26 16:00 | Report Abuse

Mat, well said, "Don't be a swing big Dick".
by the way, your TM cu now provides very exciting and good punt at 3.5 sen now. With TM at 5.37, and cu with 10 more months to expiry, the premium is 14%, not too high, but gearing and effective leverage high at 38 and 12 respectively. The implied volatility is only 15%.

Posted by pathew > 2012-11-26 16:06 | Report Abuse

today buying at 3.5/4 sen, I Q see can get at 3.5 or not...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-11-26 16:11 | Report Abuse

Don't be a big swinging Dick?

Posted by lmf_hau > 2012-11-26 16:17 | Report Abuse

The KLCI share mkt is something not right ,,, all big big stock & good fundamental stock keep droping ,,, somthing not right ,,, alert

Pls protect your profit b4 its too late, Telco r the dropiong leader + all glove counter , next coming could be the banking sector , pls alert

Posted by davesingh > 2012-11-26 16:22 | Report Abuse

fundamental what??? in a downturn no fundamentals la.. just emotions.. get used to it.. i dont make the rules i just tell it as it is..

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-28 00:39 | Report Abuse

I've been sitting still the past few trading sessions, not doing anything. Definitely won't sell the CU at a loss - not when there are so many months left. True, TM might go down further, especially with the market like this. But I believe there would be a limit as to how low the CU would go regardless of this - the expiry date is a strength and most traders are more inclined to wait rather than sell at a loss.

At the same time, I'm not buying more either. Have to be cautious until there's a clearer signal. I'm only checking the market and this forum every few hours so that I won't be influenced by the price movements and `live' comments:-) Have to stick to my own game plan and strategy. By the way, it's okay to add more at a slightly higher price later, IF one is reasonably sure there's an uptrend. In the very short term, it doesn't matter too much even if it goes down. Let the market sort itself out... I'll wait.

Today (Tuesday) was actually good. Been some time since TM's candlestick bar was white:-) It's encouraging to see it bouncing off the day's low and finishing in the plus, especially when most other stocks suffered losses. But this is only one day; we'll have to see how it performs tomorrow. If it's another positive day, then more people will be interested in this counter.

By the way, TM will announce its quarter results on Friday. If there's a rise tomorrow and Thursday, that could be insiders (or their friends) buying in anticipation of positive results.

Posted by Wy Lee > 2012-11-28 09:52 | Report Abuse

EPF buying t/m share....what happened? cover loss?zzz

Posted by PureBULL . > 2012-11-28 10:34 | Report Abuse

TM, if prices > 538 is well maintained n higher, then its daily macd shall soon approach the exciting gc (golden cross).

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-28 11:02 | Report Abuse

Hope this golden cross happens. It went as low as 5.33 earlier but recovered... and is 2 sen in the plus at present. This is encouraging. Many investors are comfortable holding TM but they want to be reasonably sure it has bottomed out first before buying. Another positive end today will really boost sentiments.

Posted by lmf_hau > 2012-11-28 12:49 | Report Abuse

TM is now technical recovering, Buy at technical rebound until Friday.

Those miss the rise in the morning, now only can see show.

If u dare to chase, go ahead.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-29 11:51 | Report Abuse

Waiting for tomorrow to see its last quarter report. It just need to defend the previous gains to build up a base. At the moment, TM is still below its 20-day moving average of 5.58. Hopefully the selling is over.

Posted by isseymiyake > 2012-11-30 09:43 | Report Abuse

Today financial report coming out,,,

Posted by Wong Bo Keong > 2012-11-30 13:02 | Report Abuse

anything related to TM?

Posted by kcfan > 2012-12-03 23:07 | Report Abuse

Telekom Malaysia the latest results and the market is expected to match, except the analysts concerned about the competition in the field of high-speed broadband warming, as well as the authorities may control the broadband network pricing issues, two major worries will affect its future earnings.

Posted by hangjebat > 2012-12-04 22:42 | Report Abuse

bought at 552.... 3 lot saja... simpan... ada pihak sdg syok membeli pada 545... 546.... will be back at rm6 very soon.

Posted by PureBULL . > 2012-12-05 11:52 | Report Abuse

TM 546 n DIGI 484, their hr macd r so close to gc.
Would they go on to attempt to scale the next higher step ?
Let's pray...

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-12-05 13:30 | Report Abuse

It's time will come again, especially when this is a counter that pays minimum fixed dividends. For fund managers, especially the local ones, there aren't too many counters that can be regarded `safe' and giving a good dividend yield at the same time. TM has now become attractive again after the slide and I feel it's just a matter of time before it goes on an upswing again. The bottom has probably been reached (5.32 recently) and the traditional window-dressing period should see this counter going higher. All that's needed now is momentum to start the big wheel turning again.

Posted by ledzepp > 2012-12-05 13:38 | Report Abuse

The problem with TM as a dividend-paying counter is that it pays twice a year, unlike Digi which does it every quarter. The next dividend will be after the 2012 results which will be announced in March 2013. The dividend will be paid April or May 2013. This is a tortoise. SIGH.

Posted by josh > 2012-12-10 15:07 | Report Abuse

Telcos uptrend is coming up now, AXIATA increase more than 3% in a single day. Next would be DIGI and MAXIS !! DIGI and MAXIS paid dividen every quarter, sometime profit good, even twice a quarter !!

Posted by Matsaham Mashuk > 2012-12-10 15:19 | Report Abuse

Nice--)good fundamental & dividend counter for long term investor.smile--)

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-12-10 15:21 | Report Abuse

this mamat makan roti, stfu la

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-12-11 10:13 | Report Abuse

This laggard seems to be moving at last. Axiata and Digi have already rebounded significantly but TM has been rather slow.

Posted by minitrader > 2012-12-11 12:56 | Report Abuse

The worst part and worst of all..Dave missed the boat all the time..

Posted by Matsaham Mashuk > 2012-12-11 18:23 | Report Abuse

cool--)price up.uptrend mode.smile--)

Posted by reshkumar > 2012-12-12 00:20 | Report Abuse

TM will continue its uptrend tomorrow..crossed above 200SMA..tm-cu tp 0.10CENTS..

Posted by warrior > 2012-12-12 04:52 | Report Abuse

TM will play catchup with AXIATA, DIGI & MAXIS. Will up today !!!

Posted by passerby > 2012-12-12 11:00 | Report Abuse

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/227013-hot-stocks-axiatatm-digi-maxis-up-on-potential-re-rating.html

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-12-12 11:03 | Report Abuse

Everyone has now turned bullish. But have to try and stay half a step ahead of the crowd. At the slightest sign of trouble, I'm heading for the exit.

Posted by sixteenblue > 2012-12-12 11:15 | Report Abuse

since i'm new to the market, are the months of oct-nov consistently the months for correction/profit taking? last year also the index went down around this time

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-12-12 14:18 | Report Abuse

ECM Libra says "Sell". TP 4.48. Yeah, hope they will sell TM to me. I'm willing to give 5.00. Wonder which ECM Libra ANALyst came up with this figure and how.

Posted by josh > 2012-12-12 14:41 | Report Abuse

GE will come in next 5 months,Investor should avoid GLC stock like MRCB, UEM Land, Gamuda, MMC, TM, AXIATA. Shift to investment profile by holding defensive stock like ASTRO, MAXIS, DIGI and property REIT (Sunreit, IGBREIT, PAVREIT).

Posted by Voon Soon Yoong > 2012-12-12 14:49 | Report Abuse

astro? hahahah

Posted by Sugih > 2012-12-12 16:40 | Report Abuse

Not Astro.Assthrow

Posted by loh1234 > 2012-12-13 09:21 | Report Abuse

Another big-jump-up for Axiata and TM. Window dressing for year end started when again?

Posted by PureBULL . > 2012-12-13 09:31 | Report Abuse

TM, open with big gap up.
Vol like disappearing away. cukuplah, start cashing in some.
hv to compare its performance in am n pm. Hope not open highest n straight line down day ?

Chart's telling a weak to downtrend. This could be a nice rebound.

Posted by Matsaham Mashuk > 2012-12-18 12:07 | Report Abuse

Cool--)price up again.uptrend mode..smile--)

Posted by Wong Bo Keong > 2013-02-06 14:51 | Report Abuse

looks attractive..

Posted by andychucky28 > 2013-02-06 14:54 | Report Abuse

No. not the time let to collect.

Posted by azta12 > 2013-02-25 11:41 | Report Abuse

yes

Posted by lmf_hau > 2013-02-25 12:04 | Report Abuse

TM 4Q12 results may release anytime.
As refer Axiata greast performance in 4Q12 & 27c dividend (whic subject to AGM approval)

Currently , TM is bottom fishing , it has great incremental volumes,
Once BP 5.30 , its will rocket flying.

Posted by azta12 > 2013-02-25 12:25 | Report Abuse

result expected out on 27/02.revenue making historical high.don't wait.

Posted by phyroxus > 2013-02-25 12:57 | Report Abuse

good buy now