Posted by speakup > 2014-05-28 11:49 | Report Abuse

mudajaya fundamentals have deteriorated

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-05-28 12:07 | Report Abuse

Power shortage
Mudajaya's annualised 1Q14 core net profit made up 59% of our full-year
forecast and 61% of consensus. The results were below expectations as 2H
could be weak due to delays in its Indian IPP and depletion of order book. We
were negatively surprised that the group is no longer keen on the Track 3A
power plant civil works job. Other power plant jobs are in the pipeline but we
think the only possible win this year could come from the WCE. We slash our
FY14-16 EPS forecasts by 15-44% and cut our target price by 21%, still based
on a 40% discount to RNAV. Its longer-term prospects still look good, but we
think that its medium-term outlook is unlikely to be exciting, thus weighing on
its share price. We downgrade our call from Add to Hold. Switch to IJM Corp.
1Q14 below expectations
41% drop in net profit. Annualised 1Q14 core net profit only made up 59%
of our full-year forecast and 61% of consensus. This is below expectations as we
overestimated the EBITDA margin, which dropped 4.5% pts yoy to 10% in 1Q14
vs. our forecast of 15%. Margins are unlikely to improve in the coming quarters
due to order book depletion and the lower margin for outstanding jobs. The
only positive surprise was the single-tier interim DPS of 3 sen.
Losing out on tenders but still looking at job wins in 2H
Focus on Track 3B and WCE. Jobflow prospects in 2H are still intact but
the recent letdown for the group was losing out on the co-generation power
plant civil works tender (RM300m-400m) for Rapid. Management clarified
that it is no longer keen on pursuing the c.RM500m civil works for Track 3A
power plant due to a change in project structure, which was a negative surprise.
However, the group remains focused on securing subcontract works from the
West Coast Highway (WCE) and Track 3B power plant civil works.
Further delays in Indian IPP's commercial operations
Zero contributions from Indian IPP in FY14. The targeted
commencement of commercial operations for unit 1 (360 MW) of its Indian
IPP has been delayed from 1Q14 to 3Q14. This was due to shipment and site
logistics. New associate earnings will only flow through from FY15 onwards.

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-05-28 12:08 | Report Abuse

Outlook seems more subdued in 2H
Sentiment could weaken in the medium term. We believe that the
sentiment on the stock could weaken in the medium term, in view of the 1)
weaker-than-expected 1Q14 results, 2) persistent delays in the Indian IPP's
commercial operations, and 3) depleting order book of less than RM1bn. We
had been bullish on Mudajaya's prospects in the arena of domestic power plant
and highway construction, given the group's good track record. However, we
now expect its order book replenishment prospects to be less exciting in 2H.
New guidance revealed that the group is no longer keen on the Track 3A power
plant civil works job that is worth c.RM500m, given the change in project
structure. Other power plant jobs such as Track 3B are in the pipeline but
competition could be intense. We think that the only likely win this year could
come from the WCE, likely to be worth RM400m-500m. Other potential wins
apart from power plants are unlikely to be sizeable.
Downgrade to Hold with lower target price of RM2.52. Overall, we are
disappointed that the outlook for 2H is looking more subdued. We cut our new
order book assumption by 30% for FY14 from RM1bn to RM700m, but maintain
our assumption of RM1bn worth of new jobs in FY15. Due to the delays in the
Indian IPP, new associate profits are likely to start contributing in FY15. As a
result of the downward revisions to our FY14-16 EPS forecasts, we are looking at
a two-year contraction in net profit relative to FY13. We slash our RNAV/share
by 21% from RM5.32 to RM4.20. Applying an unchanged 40% discount to
RNAV, our target price declines from RM3.19 to RM2.52. We downgrade our
call from Add to Hold. The domestic construction upcycle remains intact, driven
by the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP), private sector-driven jobs
and oil & gas-related infra. But we believe that the turnaround in Mudajaya's
profitability and job replenishment outlook is likely to come later rather than
sooner.

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-05-28 12:14 | Report Abuse

target price downgraded by CIMB,,,from 3.19 to 2.52....

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-05-28 12:17 | Report Abuse

WHERE is Mr Koon now,,why he is not talking about mudajaya this days???

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-05-28 12:17 | Report Abuse

that 52 wks low at 2.42 is in danger..... as while there may be projects in future, but if you line up tuajaya with the other construction cos, it is surely in the bottom half

well, may be not even bottom half but way down at the bottom

Posted by mrbullocks > 2014-05-28 12:23 | Report Abuse

People like Koon / Sam are long long term investors. They will hold for a year or 2 and tell u that i told you so.

Posted by Reno Wong > 2014-05-28 12:47 | Report Abuse

Mrbullocks: perhaps...but those follow other ppl footsteps and nvr question will nvr succeed either. And i repeat again tat none of uncle koon's recommendation come to fruition from long term fundamental perspective so far...jtiasa rsawit mudajaya...not sure if he has rwcommend ant orher stocks earlier....n i m not sure but seems like uncle koon sold rsawit to take profit in less than a yr after he recommended it..n look at the poor fiscal result of it now...what a long term fundamental investment...

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-05-28 13:11 | Report Abuse

in the latest CIMB report mention that they are not interested in the TRACK 3A project...

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-05-28 15:11 | Report Abuse

Now is the darkest hour before dawn breaks!!

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-05-28 15:20 | Report Abuse

you still have the mood to joke.............

Posted by mrbullocks > 2014-05-28 15:32 | Report Abuse

Reno: Noted on your comments. no point just following and then blaming others if one suffers a loss.
I believe one of Mr Koon's pick a couple years back was TWSPLANT and those who had followed and held were rewarded handsomely.

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-05-28 18:14 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Reno Wong > 2014-05-28 20:22 | Report Abuse

Mrbullocks: no i didnt follow uncle koon n n i wasnt blaming him too. It juz tat i studied his research but still not convinced to follow. Wat i want to say is you hv to do your own research instead of following other people. Their research could b outdated or situation changed plus u will nvr knoe when is the exit timing if you dont do your own research. To me mudajaya is at its fair value now as the good n bad news is knocking off each other, n i m only interested in undervalued targets. Ofcuz it could stil be a hidden gem but i m not insider to know all the intel so i chose to look for other targets tat seem more solid prospects. Ps: in fact i m admirer of uncle koon for his generosity and well preserved like 60's man. :)

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-05-29 11:01 | Report Abuse

Still dark Hahaha

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-05-29 11:56 | Report Abuse

it had been said....

2.8+ good buy
2.7+ good prices to accumulate
2.6+ even better prices to accumulate
2.5+ definitely even better prices to accumulate

now < 2.50... still dark??!!??

no more bright ideas...

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-05-29 12:00 | Report Abuse

< 2.50 very dark is very good , darker still even better Hahaha

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-05-29 12:17 | Report Abuse

everybody deserves a second change...

come, this time try to get it right, what price should I buy?

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-05-29 12:39 | Report Abuse

second change in very dark is very good. U can start to nibble a little bit and nibble downward even more if it gets even more darker Hahaha

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-05-29 12:53 | Report Abuse

gets even more darker still...... walao

from very optimistic to very pessimistic lo, you

good thing I didn't listen lo, good thing I have sold 2/3 at 2.81 2.82 lo

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-05-29 13:02 | Report Abuse

u mean everybody deserves a "second chance" instead of second change? Hahaha

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-05-29 13:05 | Report Abuse

second chance... yes

second change makes no sense, right?? or, what vote dap again??

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-05-29 13:07 | Report Abuse

you know, ubah!... second ubah!!

Posted by i3i2i1 > 2014-05-29 13:27 | Report Abuse

oh.. im looking for 2.30 :)

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-05-29 15:17 | Report Abuse

vote dyana for second change.. second ubah

vote sunztzhe for berubah ubah ; )

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-05-29 15:28 | Report Abuse

Hahaha "Second change" berubah ubah to "Second chance" by Ah Moi Hahaha

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-05-29 15:37 | Report Abuse

HaHa

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-05-29 15:38 | Report Abuse

berubah ubah from 2.8+ to 2.5+ is the killer.... ; )

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-05-29 15:45 | Report Abuse

2.46 so so close to 2.42

and 2.42 likely be breached

the darkest is dawning...

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-05-29 15:59 | Report Abuse

Mr K, are you buying now?? or, still waiting...?

Posted by Shark > 2014-05-29 16:15 | Report Abuse

OMG

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-05-29 16:20 | Report Abuse

oop! ask ask no guidance... I blindly bought some at 2.45 liao

Posted by sunztzhe > 2014-05-29 16:31 | Report Abuse

FA no change. TA very much oversold. The darkest hour will soon pass and Dawn will break out soon Hahaha

Posted by edlim > 2014-05-29 16:32 | Report Abuse

have faith

Posted by speakup > 2014-05-29 16:33 | Report Abuse

FA has changed. Mudajaya used to be a net cash company, now has taken some loans.

Posted by speakup > 2014-05-29 16:34 | Report Abuse

Profits have reduced each quarter

Posted by MrWealthy4321 > 2014-05-29 16:39 | Report Abuse

many baduts around ....no wonder ppl say bursa so easy to make $$$$

Posted by lawrencelim > 2014-05-29 17:13 | Report Abuse

It more likely rebound next week. This week warrant CP expired. There are unrealised profit of about RM262m in investment in associate. It will be recognised upon the assets put in use. These represents about RM0.48 sen per share. This unrealised earning + Net Asset of RM2.25 => RM2.73.

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-05-29 21:19 | Report Abuse

yes the darkest days of mudajaya

Posted by greddym3 > 2014-05-29 21:50 | Report Abuse

Lol mudajaya is not in crisis lah.the days are cloudy only not dark

Posted by sam2828 > 2014-05-30 00:39 | Report Abuse

eh.. sell la.. pliz.. i wanna buy at 2.42... been waiting till neck long

Posted by davidkkw79 > 2014-05-30 09:54 | Report Abuse

damn! got cheated by that old Kon yen yiw

Posted by Caiyi Choo > 2014-05-31 10:36 | Report Abuse

hope will rise up above rm2.62 ...stilnoavearging

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-06-02 21:02 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/valueinvestorresearchklse/53534.jsp

Posted by Caiyi Choo > 2014-06-03 13:18 | Report Abuse

johny .......what the link means ,,,,,slowly recovery? rm2.50 wor

Posted by i3i2i1 > 2014-06-04 18:08 | Report Abuse

omg

Posted by lawrencelim > 2014-06-04 20:44 | Report Abuse

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/292942-mega-project-mitsui-1mdb-to-build-and-run-us33-billion-malaysia-coal-power-plant.html

Posted by Chin Hong Choy > 2014-06-04 20:54 | Report Abuse

Mudajaya lost all the tender. What's happening????

Posted by sam2828 > 2014-06-04 23:43 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/03/03/Construction-outfit-tipped-to-be-prime-beneficiary-from-RM11bil-power-plant-job/

in fact, the news above shows mudajya have chance here

Posted by faruqie > 2014-06-05 01:57 | Report Abuse

comp. buy back share every day