Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-08-06 17:23 | Report Abuse

Got $100m USD can settle outstanding first?

Lease liabilities
The lease liabilities amounting to RM12.5 billion includes deferred aircraft leases of approximately RM1.8 billion

Current liabilities
Sales in advance RM908,448M
Other payables RM111.1M

Other payables and accruals include accruals for operational expenses and passenger service charges payable to airport authorities

If want to fly again, please clear the liabilities first.

Thank you.

Posted by humbleisland > 2021-08-06 17:32 | Report Abuse

So Tony said in AA's press release on the Fly Leasing transaction, that "Our plan to raise up to MYR 2.5 billion ringgit through a combination of borrowing and equity raising is on track. This transaction delivers a welcome boost to our overall fundraising strategy."

(a) AA has raised ~RM336m from private placement, received ~RM150m from sale of AA India, and sold USD130m (~RM520m) from the sale of spare engines. This makes a total of ~RM1.0b.

(b) AA has an upcoming RI to raise RM1.0b and can place ~200m shares (assuming RM0.7 per share, that would make RM140m), This makes a total of RM1.14b.

(c) There is also the Danajamin loan (total say RM500m) and a data backed loan of USD350m (~RM1.4b) that is in the works. This makes a total of about RM1.75b.

(a) + (b) is approx. RM2.14b (say RM2.0b to be conservative)
(a) + (b) + Danajamin is about RM2.5b.
(a) + (b) + (c) is approx. RM3.89b (say RM3.5b to be conservative)

The above is not including SK's financing to BigPay. And does not also factor in any SPAC listing in the US.

Posted by humbleisland > 2021-08-06 17:32 | Report Abuse

@PSAi3alert, I hope you're not doing business. Doesn't appear to me that you know how to use debt as leverage ...

Posted by In_Sight > 2021-08-06 17:36 | Report Abuse

@Psaasslert You’re smart. Ok. Noted.

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-08-06 17:57 | Report Abuse

humbleisland,

Whether I'm doing business or otherwise is irrelevant and is a strawman argument.

If AirAsia were to diversify into financial services, trust and integrity is utmost important. The way AA has handled sales refund indicates that they will manage money poorly.

On the aviation front, getting seat capacity requires funding.

Carlyle Aviation post acquisition of Fly Leasing will be more hard-nosed on lease agreements.

( NA of Fly Leasing is USD25/share and average book value per plane is only USD30M. Why did AA sell its share at USD17/share?
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/us/fly_leasing_ltd/SEC/sec-show.aspx?FilingId=14761455&Cik=0001407298&Type=PDF&hasPdf=1 )

Your (a) money is gone already
(b) is speculative and I am of the opinion that TF just want to bump up the LTIS free share ratios
(c) is also speculative, needs to be repaid and is just robbing Peter to pay Paul

Looking at the 3 Cs (character, credit and conduct), AA will face huge difficulties to convince financiers or lessors to give him the planes

Posted by jjyeo > 2021-08-06 18:58 | Report Abuse

They just want to grow too big to fail.

Posted by anmmnb08 > 2021-08-06 21:22 | Report Abuse

whatever it is,,today is good day for AA share price. Next week onwards will move upward for sure..thanks TF.

Posted by Cakes Moon > 2021-08-06 21:37 | Report Abuse

RM1

Posted by PN17 > 2021-08-06 21:42 | Report Abuse

AirAsia (Underperform, TP: RM0.19): Gets RM240m in proceeds following Fly Leasing-Carlyle Aviation merger. AirAsia has received USD56.83m (RM239.98m) in gross proceeds from the merger between Fly Leasing Ltd and Carlyle Aviation Partners. AirAsia held a 10.94% stake in Fly Leasing prior to the merger. (The Edge)
Comment: The gross proceeds of USD 56.83m (RM239.98m) a welcome boost to the Group’s overall fundraising strategy - to raise up to RM2.5bn through a combination of borrowing and equity raising. To recap, the Group has raised RM336.5m from two tranches of private placements earlier this year and continues to renegotiate leasing terms with all of its lessors. The pandemic continues to weigh heavily on its overall operation nonetheless. We maintain our Underperform call.

Posted by eat9797 > 2021-08-06 23:01 | Report Abuse

Special ticket price offer Rm1 next week...

Posted by ykyew11 > 2021-08-06 23:55 | Report Abuse

@PN17 If you blindly follow analyst, you'd be making huge losses by now especially on glove counters. Don't forget that most of the analyst issued a buy/trading buy call on glove stocks towards the end of last year. RIP those that follow HLG buy call on TG RM13+ if I recall properly and now it is RM3.7

Essentially, you'd be in the green if you do the exact opposite of whatever they ask you to do.

Posted by perx135305 > 2021-08-07 00:22 | Report Abuse

If IB forecast can trust, no one will lost money in stock liao lor

Posted by humbleisland > 2021-08-07 07:03 | Report Abuse

@PSAi3alert, then you obviously don't know how the aviation industry works. How many major airlines of AA's scale has completely and totally refunded each and every single ticket that was purchased but could not be used because of lockdowns/pandemic? Plus, AA did not say it will not refund. There is a choice of taking a credit or being refunded, the latter which will just take more time, for obvious reasons.

Comparing airline industry vs banking is like comparing apples vs oranges.

So AA should not sell what was already a very small stake in Fly Leasing just to avoid a tough negotiation. You must be joking?

If you've been involved in sale and purchase of businesses, shares, assets etc. then you will know that there is more to valuing it for the purposes of a sale/purchase than just plucking a number from a website.

Surely money raised is to be used? Or did you expect AA to raise money to then put it in FD? The RM2.5b is the total figure intended to be raised, and comprises the sources mentioned in (a). It is not RM2.5b excluding (a). (c) may be speculative but (b) is not. Its not a done deal but at least we know it is in the works and there are public documents to that effect. I don't disagree with your point on LTIS free shares ratio.

As to the 3Cs that you mentioned, if that truly applies then almost each and every major airline who leases planes will face that same difficulty. Of course, unless that airline has consistently been making full lease payments throughout the pandemic even though there was no business to be done. If you know of any such company, please please do let us know - doesn't make for a good investment if you ask me!

Posted by humbleisland > 2021-08-07 07:20 | Report Abuse

I'm not sure if my tone comes across as being offensive or aggressive, but if it does then I apologise, will need to learn how to write better. I actually like and appreciate exchanges like this, as it helps with assessing downsides. I may be stubborn in depending this position, but am happy to hear contrarian thoughts and to learn from it.

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-07 07:38 | Report Abuse

TF equate refund for air tickets as refund of downpayment paid for planes order with Airbus.


“I don’t have a big benefactor shareholder who can top up and do the refunds, we have to be real about our survivability now,” he said.

He said money does not “grow on trees” and if everyone asked for their refunds, the company would go bust. AirAsia, he said, also has large amounts of money owed to it, citing the US$200 million (RM800 million) tied up in Airbus.

“I like to cancel the order and get my money back. I have money tied up all over the place. We have been transparent, we have been open, I have been abused, we have answered questions, no one has been transparent like us.”

Fernandes said those owed money can soon spend their credit on food, hotels and buying groceries, adding that AirAsia’s new ecosystem will make this possible.

“We are also thankful to the leasing companies and other creditors who have supported AirAsia which includes some banks, they have been amazing.”

Insisting that the low-cost airline business model was still viable and the same despite the setback brought about by Covid-19, he admitted that he never thought in February 2020 that they would not still be flying in June this year.

“I thought I have seen everything, every crisis. So anyone who says they were prepared for Covid is talking rubbish. I learnt that having more cash is always a plus.”

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-08-07 09:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by perx135305 > 2021-08-07 09:41 | Report Abuse

Good morning. Weekend rest well everyone

Posted by Wilsonleong8888 > 2021-08-07 13:47 | Report Abuse

Yup usually quarrel stop on weekend ... a peaceful comment space ... will resume on weekdays lols

Posted by AlexT12 > 2021-08-07 20:07 | Report Abuse

Dont worry, company confirm can last till 2023. a matter of how much value it still hv

Posted by trum > 2021-08-07 20:29 | Report Abuse

Covid will last longer than ...
You fill in the blank for me.
Hopefully this will not happen.

Posted by Up Slowly Better La > 2021-08-07 21:24 | Report Abuse

Those who really think AA will close down or what, continue think yaa

Posted by trum > 2021-08-08 09:53 | Report Abuse

Dulian RM30?

Posted by trum > 2021-08-08 10:22 | Report Abuse

Hello i3lurker, long time no seeing you. Now hot Dulian King Rm30? Latest promo you want or not. Send to your house fast enough.

Posted by FantasticK > 2021-08-08 10:27 | Report Abuse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnBuAR6LOf4
AA digitalization @@

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-08-08 10:32 | Report Abuse

humbleisland,

First of all, I've never suggested that airlines should refund all sales in advance of carriage. It's a matter of how it's being managed. SIA's decrease in the 'sales in advance of carriage' was proportional to it's revenue decline. That is not the case for AA.

AA ______________________ FY2020 _________ FY2019
Revenue _________________ RM2,844.381M ___ RM11,379.669M
Sales in advance of carriage __ RM971.688M ____ RM1,182.155M

SIA ______________________ FY2020/21 ______ FY2019/20
Rev _____________________ S$3,815.9M _____ S$15,975.9M
Sales in advance of carriage __ S$568.1M ______ S$2,041.4M

The sales in advance (RM908,448M) and PSC payable to airport authorities (RM111.1M) has already exceeded RM1B. Sales in advance of carriage ought to have been parked in a client account to be drawn down only upon carriage by passengers.

I was not comparing an airline business with a financial services at all. BigPay has been suggested to be the savior for AA. BigPay is essentially a payment system, remittance and money lending services company.

If for some financial wizardry that can result in the RM908.448M worth of 'sales in advance' liabilities being mutated into credit to be used only in AA's ecosystem; that will be a financial derivative product which passengers did not pay for, nor consent to in the first place.

That was the reason why I thought AA is or going to be in financial services.

By looking at the 2020 annual report, I noted the RM976.168M fuel swap losses and almost thought that AA is in the jet fuel speculation business as well.

___________________ FY2020 ________FY2019
Revenue ___________ RM2,844.4M ____ RM11,379.7M
Aircraft fuel expenses _ (991.428M) _____ (4,204.77M)
- Fuel swap losses ___ (972.168M) ______ (-)

Since you have said that AA is only an airline services company, we shall not delve further into its prospects in financial services, fuel speculation, retailing of nasi lemak or mango distribution businesses.

AA was actually the largest shareholder in Fly Leasing. (I read the sale of Fly Leasing shares to be a forced sale to contra against rent deferrals granted.)

[---Background info: In 2018, BBAM-managed entities acquired a portfolio of 84 aircraft and 14 engines, of which 79 aircraft and 14 engines will be leased back to Airasia and its affiliates. FLY and Incline have also entered agreements to acquire 48 aircraft on order by Airasia, and taken an option to acquire a further 50 aircraft to be delivered.

FLY acquired 34 A320s and seven aircraft engines. Of these aircraft, 33 were on lease to five different airlines within the Airasia group.

Under the terms of the agreement, AAB received approximately $1 billion in cash and 3,333,333 newly­issued FLY shares at $15 per share as part of the initial stage of the transaction.

As at Dec 2020, Fly Leasing's portfolio comprised the following aircraft leased to AA:
AA Berhad 11 A320-200
AA India 2 A320-200
AA Indonesia 2 A320-200
AA Philippines 1 A320-200
AA Thai 1 A321neo, 1 A320-200

AAB 5 CFM56 engines
AA Japan 1 CFM56 engine
AA Indonesia 1 CFM56 engine

Out of the 33 aircraft originally leased to AA, 18 remained to be under lease. None of the 48 aircraft on order by AA and option for a further 50 aircraft was actually acquired ---]

As of Mar 2021, AA's liabilities were:
Lease liabilities _____ RM12.5 billion (supported by RM9.1 billion ROU)
Sales in advance ___ RM908,448M
Other payables ____ RM111.1M
Borrowings ________ 1,136.1M

Lets assume for the moment that your (a), (b) and (c) will come in (although I very much doubt that a 'data-backed' loan can circumvent PDPA).

The variables going forward for the next years will be:
Max 40,000M ASK (assuming Carlyle Aviation, Incline, NBB, BOC Aviation, Castlelake LP etc do not 'tarik' aircraft)
Cost per ASK - excluding fuel (sen) > 10
Jet Fuel Price (RM/gallon): 7 to 9

I do not know how the aviation industry work. Pray tell on how AA is going to make money in the next 5 years. No payment system, money lending, fuel speculation, nasi lemak or mango. Just the aviation part only and in specific without hope-based accounting.

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-08-08 10:32 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-08-08 11:37 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-08-08 11:46 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-08-08 12:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by trum > 2021-08-08 12:16 | Report Abuse

A sad story for Tony to Tiny now. When we have no money, people also don’t care company anymore. Market will open new companies every now and then.

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-08-08 12:26 | Report Abuse

thats not sad.
Air Asia dun make money moving passengers.

Profits were made by Gambling Orders of New Planes.
Now that Gambling Losses came out.

Those Gambling Deposits for Gambling New Planes are not refundable.
Its in the Gambling fine print.


Posted by trum > Aug 8, 2021 12:16 PM | Report Abuse

A sad story for Tony to Tiny now. When we have no money, people also don’t care company anymore. Market will open new companies every now and then.

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-08 13:05 | Report Abuse

Sell lah!

airasia bankrupting loh!

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-08-08 13:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by eat9797 > 2021-08-08 13:17 | Report Abuse

No worry, tony will give u offer RM1. Buy buy buy while stock last...

Posted by TianChoi1 > 2021-08-08 13:30 | Report Abuse

A very sad stories for those who hv no money to buy. Don’t pity tiny TF. Pity yrself. Ha ha ha

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-08 13:32 | Report Abuse

Just cut & run lah!

Posted by TianChoi1 > Aug 8, 2021 1:30 PM | Report Abuse

A very sad stories for those who hv no money to buy. Don’t pity tiny TF. Pity yrself. Ha ha ha

Posted by TianChoi1 > 2021-08-08 13:37 | Report Abuse

BTW, tiny TF has a nett worth of RM745 million at 2021, successful and a young beautiful new wife and U … keep talking nonsense. U still want to pity tiny TF. Pity yrself.

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-08 13:45 | Report Abuse

If you want to paham you can read long l9ng story on AA by Choivo.
Publ8c date: 30 Aug 2020.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-08-30-story-h1512605220-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_Airasia_Group_Berhad_5099_The_RM6_Billion_Baggage_Fee.jsp

Conclusion
Having said so much, I am reminded of a poem by Theodore Roosevelt.

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”


At the end of the day, I am a person with the benefit of hindsight, who have never started a business, much less impacted lives in South East Asia the way Tony Fernandes & Kamarudin Meranun had.

Because of them, the low cost carrier model was ignited sooner, and now almost everybody in South East Asia can fly.

Quite frankly, as i was writing this. i wondered if I even have the right to criticize Tony Fernandes & Kamarudin Meranun in the management of Airasia.

The only relevant comment I can make is on the Corporate Governance.

If I am being very honest, I don’t think Tony Fernandes & Kamarudin Meranun is actively trying to screw over Airasia.

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-08 13:53 | Report Abuse

The right strategy for airasia to survive, is to go thru a restructuring exercise & reduce its debts and share capital and fresh injection of new funds, only then airasia can properly survive loh!

Meanwhile whoever invest in airasia asking for trouble, losing money is a very high probability loh!

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-08-08 14:27 | Report Abuse

i3lurker,

There ought to be a distinction between faith-based accounting and hope-based accountinig.

Faith-based accounting is applicable for situations when plants and sites do not show up in satellite images; receivables are recorded for non-existent customers; and when client, supplier, contractor, proxy and licence issuer is effectively the same party.

In AA's case, all liabilities are real and the shareholders' equity is indeed negative RM4.19B. This scenario requires hope-based accounting.

With hope based-accounting:
- average aircraft utilization hours per day will be pushed from 13 to 26 (achievable by having more planes fly westward to gain on the GMT time difference)
- jet fuel price will be negative RM8/gallon over the next five years
- ABC maintenance checks are replaced by 'kicking the tire' checks

I did not bring up financial engineering in my previous post because humbleisland said that AA is only in aviation business.

Since you brought it up, I'll discuss the financial services part of the business.

One of the key liabilities is sales in advance of carriage: RM908,448M

And assets that can be collateralized are:
Deposits with Airbus: US$200M (RM820M)
BigPay fresh funds: US$100M (RM410M)

BigPay will issue ABS (asset backed securities) for the amount of RM908.448M by using those 2 asset items as collateral.

The funds raised from the ABS will be loaned to the customers who have 'sales in advance of carriage' with AA with the following terms:
- 18% per annum interest rate for a term of 5 years
- default if payments are missed for 3 cumulative (not consecutive) months
- the 18% per annum interest shall be compounded upon default

Invariably, all customers will default because no one will pay interest for money that is due to them.

The value of the loan portfolio will now swell to RM2,078.3M (RM908.448 x 1.18^5)

Since defaults have been triggered, the value of the ABS holders will drop by 50% to RM454.22M.
That ABS liability of RM454.22M will be converted to 'sales in advance of carriage' because redemption has to be within AA's ecosystem.

The deposits with Airbus and BigPay funds assets of RM1,230M is now freed up for more asset back securitisations.

Now AA should proceed to default on all aircraft leases. All the aircraft will be auctioned at 5% of book value which means that it will cost only RM455M to buy all the aircraft that previously had a ROU value of RM9.1B.

To settle with the lessors, AA shall pay 5% of the RM12.5B lease liabilities or RM625M.

The balance of RM150 (1,230M - 455M - 625M) will now be paid out as executive compensation.

Since everyone is hopeful that everything will be back to normal, aircraft assets will have to be revalued to half the book value of pre-pandemic valuations.

The final result will be:

ASSETS
Aircraft asset: RM455M
Revaluation surplus: RM4,095M
Loan portfolio: RM2078.3M
Airbus deposit: RM820M
BigPay funds: RM410M
Total Assets: RM7,858.3

LIABILITIES
Sales in advance of carriage: RM1362.67
ABS for purchasing aircraft and settling lessors: RM1,230M
Total Liabilities: RM2,592.67M

NET ASSETS: RM5,265.63

That will be hopeful accounting coupled with financial derivatives


i3lurker PSAi3alert

again you are raising up irrelevant issues

for a faith based share like Air Asia that is already bankrupt, valuation of bankrupt Air Asia is based on faith principles and miracle mathematics.

for Miracle Mathematics you just adjust those accounts by adding nine zeros to the assets and gains and then you just minus out also nine zeros to any liabilities and losses.


lu paham?
08/08/2021 11:37 AM

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-08-08 14:37 | Report Abuse

sslee



I treat my staff very well.
Good pay higher than Industry average. I make sure its higher.

Everyone gets a free Touch n Go card thats topped up when required with no questions asked how they spend it.

They just need to bring back when empty.
No delays in paying them salary..

All put on weight after working for me just one month...
Everyday for lunch, its fancy Japanese restaurants, Manhattan Fish Market, TGIF, that level of standard.
Esquire Kitchen is considered dieting already.

Long Tea times at 10am 3pm at expensive coffee shops like Coffee Bean, Starbucks, San Francisco for more eat eating makan makan again...

Now no eat in of course no more loh.....its all bungkus on company account..

Thats why I consider myself very VERY VERY qualified to comment on other "so called employers."

Obviously Choivo is NOT QUALIFIED in "anything".
REPEAT => "anything" ... you go figure out what "anything" means

Posted by Sslee > Aug 8, 2021 1:45 PM | Report Abuse

If you want to paham you can read long l9ng story on AA by Choivo.
Publ8c date: 30 Aug 2020.

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-08 15:07 | Report Abuse

Rubbish lah!

Like fairly tales loh!

What type of business u r doing leh ?

Posted by i3lurker > Aug 8, 2021 2:37 PM | Report Abuse

sslee


I treat my staff very well.
Good pay higher than Industry average. I make sure its higher.

Everyone gets a free Touch n Go card thats topped up when required with no questions asked how they spend it.

They just need to bring back when empty.
No delays in paying them salary..

All put on weight after working for me just one month...
Everyday for lunch, its fancy Japanese restaurants, Manhattan Fish Market, TGIF, that level of standard.
Esquire Kitchen is considered dieting already.

Long Tea times at 10am 3pm at expensive coffee shops like Coffee Bean, Starbucks, San Francisco for more eat eating makan makan again...

Now no eat in of course no more loh.....its all bungkus on company account..

Thats why I consider myself very VERY VERY qualified to comment on other "so called employers."

Obviously Choivo is NOT QUALIFIED in "anything".
REPEAT => "anything" ... you go figure out what "anything" means

Posted by Sslee > Aug 8, 2021 1:45 PM | Report Abuse

If you want to paham you can read long l9ng story on AA by Choivo.
Publ8c date: 30 Aug 2020.

Posted by humbleisland > 2021-08-08 15:17 | Report Abuse

@PSAi3alert, I think your reference to "financial services" is a little too out of context.

Firstly, what you had implied is that the late refund by AA suggests that it won't be a credible financial institution should it be a licensed bank. What I had said, is that both can't be compared against each other. This is because both industries clearly have each of its own sets of rules and regulations, and business is done according to the parameters of applicable rules and regulations, and there is no need to do more (although one can of course do so). I did not in any way say that AA is only in the business of aviation and not finance. As is clear, AA is moving towards being a diversified group instead of just running an aviation business.

Also, no one has suggested that BigPay is a saviour for AA. Its potential has been talked up, but no one has said that it is the silver bullet to fixing AA's business. It is only one part of the business. This is not lost on anyone.

Finally, the beauty of financial engineering is that anyone can make any assumptions in order to derive a number that he/she wants or doesn't want. I am not suggesting your calcs above are right or wrong, but isn't that what an analyst will do? If a stock's price is in a downtrend, everyone will tweak their assumptions and revise figures downwards, and if a stock's price is in an uptrend and business prospects improve, analysts will waste no time in suddenly changing their tune. In some ways, that is what all of us are doing as well to convince ourselves that we are right and those who do not agree are wrong.

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-08-08 15:22 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by trum > 2021-08-08 15:40 | Report Abuse

i3lurker, rubbish lah.
Even some Multi National companies in Msia also don’t give free lunches and long afternoons tea break. Menyampah.

What business are you in as a taukeh???



Posted by i3lurker > Aug 8, 2021 2:37 PM | Report Abuse

sslee



I treat my staff very well.
Good pay higher than Industry average. I make sure its higher.

Everyone gets a free Touch n Go card thats topped up when required with no questions asked how they spend it.

They just need to bring back when empty.
No delays in paying them salary..

All put on weight after working for me just one month...
Everyday for lunch, its fancy Japanese restaurants, Manhattan Fish Market, TGIF, that level of standard.
Esquire Kitchen is considered dieting already.

Long Tea times at 10am 3pm at expensive coffee shops like Coffee Bean, Starbucks, San Francisco for more eat eating makan makan again...

Now no eat in of course no more loh.....its all bungkus on company account..

Thats why I consider myself very VERY VERY qualified to comment on other "so called employers."

Obviously Choivo is NOT QUALIFIED in "anything".
REPEAT => "anything" ... you go figure out what "anything" means

Posted by trum > 2021-08-08 15:43 | Report Abuse

Tuan Sslee, I agree with your opinion below.

Posted by Sslee > Aug 8, 2021 1:45 PM | Report Abuse

If you want to paham you can read long l9ng story on AA by Choivo.
Publ8c date: 30 Aug 2020.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-08-30-story-h15...

Conclusion
Having said so much, I am reminded of a poem by Theodore Roosevelt.

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”


At the end of the day, I am a person with the benefit of hindsight, who have never started a business, much less impacted lives in South East Asia the way Tony Fernandes & Kamarudin Meranun had.

Because of them, the low cost carrier model was ignited sooner, and now almost everybody in South East Asia can fly.

Quite frankly, as i was writing this. i wondered if I even have the right to criticize Tony Fernandes & Kamarudin Meranun in the management of Airasia.

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-08-08 15:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-08-08 15:59 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-08-08 16:04 | Report Abuse

humbleisland,

I'm not an analyst. One of the key measurement of a company's performance is staff happiness.

AA's staff are not happy because:

- pilots have to pay for their meals on board

- pilots get reprimanded for not achieving a 98% flap 3 landings (full flap landing will cost 8kg more of fuel

- top guys get RM400M worth of LTIS free shares despite losing RM972M in fuel speculation

- flights are undertaken without ATC's permission (Surabaya–Singapore route on Sunday)

- F words are used on subordinates

- I have personally seen how TF talked to a staff and it's completely different from his public cut-glass British accented persona

I am willing to debate on specific details down to each aircraft's tail number. But if you were to veer towards hope-based accounting that does not correlate with the share price movements, then the actual financial performance does not matter.

In that case, I will just use staff happiness as the only metric. And TF gets an F.


Finally, the beauty of financial engineering is that anyone can make any assumptions in order to derive a number that he/she wants or doesn't want. I am not suggesting your calcs above are right or wrong, but isn't that what an analyst will do? If a stock's price is in a downtrend, everyone will tweak their assumptions and revise figures downwards, and if a stock's price is in an uptrend and business prospects improve, analysts will waste no time in suddenly changing their tune. In some ways, that is what all of us are doing as well to convince ourselves that we are right and those who do not agree are wrong.
08/08/2021 3:17 PM

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-08-08 16:14 |

Post removed.Why?