Posted by xiaochen > 2024-01-04 09:30 | Report Abuse

Just like rolling the snow ball.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-04 09:32 | Report Abuse

FYI, as of 30 Sept 2023, YTL Power had gross cash of RM8.2 billion in its balance sheets, ready to for deployment to fund any future new projects.

And its operating cashflows are very strong, which will help to fund new projects. For the Q1 FY2024, YTLP registered operating cashflows (before working capital changes and capex) of RM1.7 billion, deduct capex of RM956 million, it had free cashflows of RM745 million for Q1, annualised to RM2.98 billion (after funding estimated capex of RM3.8 billion).

So it should have no issue of giving out dividends of RM1.0 billion to RM1.2 billion for FY2024/2025.

Posted by moncmondo87 > 2024-01-04 09:37 | Report Abuse

xiaochen, good analogy - rolling snowball. We can already see the larger snowball down the slope, we just need to see the amount of snow along the way down 😉, better than the analysts

Posted by Plantermen > 2024-01-04 09:43 | Report Abuse

Xiaochen. I am not too optimistic on the PADU rollout. Looks easy but with 39 or 40 fields to fill and updated is not a easy task. tough choice for many less tech savy. Inaddition the accuracy of the data relies heavily on the respondents. Eversince the pandemic a large number of workers are in the gig economy {and not cover per see in the economy} if one is getting the BRIM assistance { a person may be tempted not to report his earning or side income} which may disqualify him from getting the BRIM assistance. Looking at their website PADU is the centralised collection data agency but the actual disbursement for the eligible and targeted groups are thru another agency. So it's good? I have no answer

Posted by Jerichomy > 2024-01-04 09:44 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Uniholder > 2024-01-04 09:46 | Report Abuse

Was away for new year holidays.


So happy this morning, 🥰

I’m in for the long haul. And not worry checking the price everydayyy. 😁

Posted by Uniholder > 2024-01-04 09:46 | Report Abuse

Soon next station 3.28 ya, @dragon328 ?

🎉🎉🎉

Posted by Uniholder > 2024-01-04 09:47 | Report Abuse

Good surprise, I must say. 😜

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2024-01-04 09:51 | Report Abuse

Lanhill also running

Posted by troy88 > 2024-01-04 09:53 | Report Abuse

YTL group (incl. Ranhill) bull run so agressive!

Posted by MrFox > 2024-01-04 10:09 | Report Abuse

> 4.00.. am waiting! am i realistic?????
haha

Posted by mf > 2024-01-04 10:15 | Report Abuse

take profit

Posted by xiaochen > 2024-01-04 10:15 | Report Abuse

Plantermen, your points are reasonable.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2024-01-04 10:21 | Report Abuse

ATH 2.93

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2024-01-04 10:22 | Report Abuse

rr88 please go and hide in TR with Jerichomy

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2024-01-04 10:38 | Report Abuse

They will have 50.5% of ranhill eventually !

Posted by MrFox > 2024-01-04 10:52 | Report Abuse

wwss
What a feeling!!!!!!!!!
haha

Posted by MrFox > 2024-01-04 10:53 | Report Abuse

101% sure , will hit 3
haha

Posted by MrFox > 2024-01-04 10:54 | Report Abuse

u dun believe words of wisdom???!!!!!
haha

Posted by xiaochen > 2024-01-04 10:55 | Report Abuse

TA TP Rm 2.60
AmInvest AffinHwang TP RM 2.70
RHB TP Rm 2.95
Now RM 2.96
MIDF TP RM 2.99
CIMB TP Rm 3.00
Kenanga TP RM 3.06
HLIB TP RM 3.90

Posted by Uniholder > 2024-01-04 10:56 | Report Abuse

@xiaochen


Don’t forget TP 3.28 alsooo

😜😜

Posted by probability > 2024-01-04 10:57 | Report Abuse

...RM 3 soon

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efVf8pyW7Hs

Posted by MrFox > 2024-01-04 11:00 | Report Abuse

@xiaochen


Don’t forget TP 3.28 alsooo

Don’t forget MrFox > TP 4 alsooo
haha

Posted by ChloeTai > 2024-01-04 11:02 | Report Abuse

@xiaochen: Now got new source of earning from Johor data centre middle of 2024. Will the target price be raised?

Posted by HumptyDumpty > 2024-01-04 11:13 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 just a layman idea, perhaps the long term prospect is not clear ? it's a turmoil year plus many uncertainty in external, those call-warrant are usually just 6 months period. So their strategy involve in reaping gain in short term?

Posted by OTB > 2024-01-04 11:13 | Report Abuse

dragon328 will change his BMW to 528 in 2024.
May be dragon528 will change his BMW to 728 in 2025/6.
Anyway, congratulation to your new BMW 528.
Your BMW is donated by YTLPower.

I wish you a Happy and Prosperous New Year 2024.
Good luck in 2024.
See you in BMW 728 soon.
Thank you.

Posted by probability > 2024-01-04 11:17 | Report Abuse

amazing to see OTB TP for 2023 achieved (just 3 trading days slip to 2024)...

great to have gems like OTB and dragon328 in i3

Posted by ChloeTai > 2024-01-04 11:19 | Report Abuse

Even IWCITY also moves up for 3 consecutive days already.

Posted by HumptyDumpty > 2024-01-04 11:31 | Report Abuse

An attempt to explainby AI (Chatgpt) of Dragon comment on Call warrant.

-Pushing Down Valuation and Advising to Sell:

Investment banks might advise clients to sell off large positions in a stock (in this case, YTL Power) for various reasons. One potential motivation could be to earn advisory fees and commissions from these sell-offs. When clients sell, especially in large quantities, the bank earns fees for facilitating the transaction. However, the decision to push down the valuation might not always be straightforward and may depend on the bank's analysis of market conditions, the company's performance, or other factors.
- Issuing Call Warrants without Full Hedge:

Investment banks issuing call warrants without fully hedging by buying enough mother shares can be a risk management strategy. By pushing down the mother share's price, they may reduce the potential cost of cash settlement when the call warrants expire. However, this strategy involves the risk of the mother share price appreciating beyond their expectations, leading to potential losses.
Issuing more call warrants and hedging with mother shares is a more conservative approach but requires a significant upfront capital commitment. The decision to under hedge may be driven by a desire to minimize initial capital requirements.
-Earning Premiums from Call Warrant Issuance:

Issuing call warrants and earning premiums from the issuance can be a lucrative business for investment banks. This allows them to earn fees without necessarily holding the entire underlying position. However, this comes with risks, as mentioned earlier.
- Why Not Issue More Call Warrants:

While issuing more call warrants could bring in more fees, it also requires the bank to commit more capital for hedging. The decision may hinge on the bank's risk appetite, available capital, and its assessment of market conditions.
Additionally, continually issuing new call warrants might dilute the value of existing warrants and could impact market perception.

-- End--
I think the bank miscalculate a part , not the earning (that's predictable) , but influx of foreign fund and the fund stay. Bank will bleed for this, but they will recover from other operations.

Posted by HumptyDumpty > 2024-01-04 11:57 | Report Abuse

I am truely the layman ... i mistaken call-warrant ratio meaning..

User
I have a call-warrant of exercise price of 1.65, Conversion Ratio 1.5 : 1,now call warrent market value at 0.87, Underlying Stock Price 2.94, should i exercise the the warrant or sale it ?
ChatGPT
To determine whether to exercise the call warrant or sell it, you can calculate the breakeven price and consider the potential profit. Here's how you can approach the decision:

1. Calculate Breakeven Price:

The breakeven price is the price at which exercising the call warrant would result in neither a profit nor a loss.
Breakeven Price=Exercise Price+(Warrant Market Price/Conversion Ratio)

Breakeven Price=1.65+(0.87/1.5)
≈2.145

Even the call warrant is super undervalue(c33) , there are 4:1 (c41) one....

Posted by Jerichomy > 2024-01-04 12:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2024-01-04 12:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by mf > 2024-01-04 12:10 | Report Abuse

take profit

Posted by OTB > 2024-01-04 12:11 | Report Abuse

YTLPower is really geng, 2.99 now.
See you at 3.00 soon.
Thank you.

Posted by Uniholder > 2024-01-04 12:13 | Report Abuse

Break 3.0 today lah….


Next station is Dragon station…

Posted by Jerichomy > 2024-01-04 12:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2024-01-04 12:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-04 12:24 | Report Abuse

@HumptyDumpty, for the record, you cannot exercise any call warrant, it is not the same as other traditional warrants with a stock code of -WA, WB etc.

Most or All of the call warrants on Bursa are cash settled upon expiry by the issuing bank at the settlement price which is calculated as follows:

(the last 5-day average price of mother share before expiry - conversion price)/conversion ratio

Take the example of YTLPower-C33, the conversion price is RM1.65 and conversion ratio is 1.5x, so for an average final price of say RM2.99 upon expiry, the theoretical settlement price would be (2.99 - 1.65)/1.5 = RM0.893. C33 is trading at RM0.885-0.890 which is at a slight discount to the fair value.

Posted by OTB > 2024-01-04 12:28 | Report Abuse

dragon328,
I just joke with you only, please do not take it seriously.
Thank you.

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2024-01-04 12:30 | Report Abuse

Sure to break RM 3 after lunch

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-04 12:33 | Report Abuse

On new call warrant issuance, you are probably right that investment banks are restricted by the high capital cost of holding the mother shares for hedging.

For instance, C33 has a issued quantity of 150 million shares which are a big one. For a conversion ratio of 1.5x, the issuer bank should need to hold 150m/1.5 = 100 million shares of YTL Power mother shares in order to hedge 100% of its call warrants issued. To buy 100 million shares of YTL Power, the issuer bank needed to set aside RM200 million of capital if YTLP was at RM2.00 at issuance date.

But if the call warrant was issued at a decent premium of 15% to 20%, then the issuer bank would have earned some 12sen to 15 sen x 150m = RM18 to 22 million of gains upon issuance. That would be about 10% gain over the required capital layout of RM200 million in just 6 to 8 months.

And upon expiry of this C33 call warrant on 28 Feb 2024, the issuer bank can then issue a new batch of new call warrants on YTLP by holding onto the 100 million shares it used to hedge against C33.

They can just keep doing that every 6 to 8 months by using the same capital outlay on the same stock, as long as the underlying stock continues to perform well and the market expects the stock to continue going up so they will buy the new call warrants for higher leverage.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2024-01-04 12:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2024-01-04 12:34 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-04 12:37 | Report Abuse

Mr. OTB, that's just joke, it's okay. I don't drive a BMW and do not have any intention to upgrade my car anytime soon.

The important thing is everybody can earn some decent profit from this stock by holding onto it this far. I will continue holding on for dividends which will be better than any other passive income from fixed deposits or EPF.

Posted by sii581014 > 2024-01-04 12:41 | Report Abuse

I'm guessing, the AI in Kulai, is build for our government, especially phase one.
PMX will use this AI to generate all info needed to launch his "precision subsidy".

AI is not something that able to do those job u described in the near term, general AI is far away from actual use today.
Gov need man power to design database and related all data from different source, 99% by human and logic design but definitely not AI...just normal data structure is enough...not everything is/ need to be AI hype...

Posted by sii581014 > 2024-01-04 12:45 | Report Abuse

AI today more practically use for specific purpose i.e. language, picture, video, text, creation...u know chatgpt cannot even correctly calculate 5+5=10? that because AI is weak at math currently...though rumor is that a breakthrough development is coming soon from OpenAI

Posted by OTB > 2024-01-04 12:45 | Report Abuse

Dear dragon328,
I really appreciate to read all your write-up and also all good articles you had posted on YTLPower.
I will hold on until my target price is met.
I am very optimistic on the earning of YTLPower especially the earning from green data storage center.
Thank you for your good articles.
Best regards always.

Posted by Yezzy99108 > 2024-01-04 12:54 | Report Abuse

fund are starting to realised the multi bagges and exponential growth of this giant

Posted by dmyap327 > 2024-01-04 13:58 | Report Abuse

@dragon & Mr OTB -The important thing is everybody can earn some decent profit from this stock by holding onto it this far. I will continue holding on for dividends which will be better than any other passive income from fixed deposits or EPF.

Happy new year to everyone here making tones of money (An ATM Machine),
As i seldom comment here but I really feel good because with both of the recommendation, I manage to hold a bit and make some CNY pocket money.

I sincerely hope that both of you can continuusly to provide good information. good stock and the effort that you all I really appreciate it, Thank you so much.

Posted by dmyap327 > 2024-01-04 14:02 | Report Abuse

I am sorry , for not to mentioned others also put alot of effort and good explaination for me to understand more on this stock, good year 2024 good start, I never felt so happy before,