Posted by paktua73 > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Again I need to write something not so good about YTL Power's upcoming results.

Some fellow investors pm to express concerns on the upcoming Q4 FY2024 result of YTL Power and fear of a big selldown if the Q4 FY24 result is a lot lower than last year Q4 FY2023.

I did have a quick check on the ground in Singapore and found out that certain type of retails electricity contracts were getting affected by the prevailing low USEP, such retails contracts have electricity contract price linked to the average USEP of the month.

Though most of PowerSeraya's revenue is tied to longer term retails contracts (>80%) and vesting contracts (now <10%), the loss of long generation profit as seen in last Q4 FY2023 (April-June 2023) (estimated to be about SGD30 million) will be badly missed, especially when retails contract margin is getting affected by low USEP.

The RM1.06 billion of pretax profit achieved by PowerSeraya in Q4 FY2023 was exceptional in conjunction with super high pool & USEP prices then. PBT of RM1.06b or SGD305 million translated into net profit of SGD253 million. Minus out the estimated SGD30m of long generation profit which will not recur, PowerSeraya achieved core net profit of SGD220m in Q3 FY2023.

Due to softer retails contract margin, I would knock off 10%-15% of PowerSeraya's core net profit of SGD223m, and derive a projected net profit range of SGD185m to 200m each quarter for Q4 FY2024 and possibly Q1 FY2025 as USEP has remained depressed till mid July 2024.

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Anyway in my last projections for YTLP in late May 2024, I did forecast net profit of SGD750 million for PowerSeraya in FY2025, translating to SGD187.5 million average each quarter, which will still fall within the above range of SGD185-200 million.

Going into FY2026, retails margin is expected to face further downwards pressure as Sembcorp and Keppel new units are expected to come online in 2026. Hence I projected for PowerSeraya net profit to gradually drop to SGD600 million by FY2027.

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

So PowerSeraya will contribute net profit of RM700m max to YTL Power in Q4 FY2024. Jordan and Jawa Power are expected to contribute some RM100-120 million net profit every quarter, and Wessex is expected to at best break even. The contribution from 1st phase data centre with SEA Ltd is expected to be insignificant as only 8MW has been commisssioned since Mar 2024.

The wild card is Yes 5G business, which I hope will register smaller losses.

All in, it looks like we are looking at total net profit of RM750m to RM820 million for YTLP in Q4 FY2024, which will be a drop of almost 30% from last year record profit of RM1.1b, but will be 7%-15% higher than Q3 FY2024.

Will YTLP share price see a knee-jerk reaction of selling after posting Q4 FY2024 result? Maybe or maybe not. But I won't be bothered as I am a long term investor who aims to ride on this winning stock until its next big earnings driver of AI data centre comes into play in FY2025.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by OTB > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@Dragon328,
From AMinvest report.
Quote !!
We believe that YTLP’s 100 MW AI DC (data centre) in Johor is on track for commissioning in 2025F. We maintain our earnings forecast of more than RM1bil for the AI DC in FY26F.
Unquote !!

This increase in profit from the partnership of Nvidia is more than enough to compensate for the loss of profit from PowerSeraya.
Thank you.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by raymondroy > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@dragon328 .... thx for the commentary and to put in perspective:
SGD MYR exch rate :
Apr-Jun23 = 3.38 (average) and
Apr-Jun24 = 3.49 (average)
Power seraya earnings Apr-Jun23 (RM'm and S$'m) :-
Revenue = RM5,246 or S$1,552
Profit Before Tax = RM1,067 or S$316 (using above exch rate)
Power seraya FORECAST earnings Apr-Jun24 :-
Profit Before Tax = S$223 (as per your forecast) or RM778 (using above exch rate)

So thats a RM289m (1,067 - 778) drop in profit before tax or 27% drop in PBT Y-on-Y !!!! Is this correct? Purely looking at powerseraya earnings alone (excluding wessex and others)??

Power seraya earnings Jan-Mar24 :- (using exch of 3.49)
Revenue = RM3,573 or S$1,023
Profit Before Tax = RM842 or S$241 (using above exch rate)

Can Q4 powerseraya net earnings be lower than S$241m reported in Q3??

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@raymondroy, you are right up there. The loss of long generation into the pool itself will erase some SGD30m from PowerSeraya's PBT in a quarter. Coupled with softened retail contract margin, we are probably looking at a 27% drop y-on-y in PS PBT.

But as said, PS last Q4 FY2023 was exceptional. Stripping out extraordinary gains of long generation, PS core PBT in Q4 FY2023 was about SGD273m, and we are looking at core PBT of SGD223m to 240m in Q4 FY2024, so a y-on-y drop of 12%-18% in core PBT.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Anyway today selling is well expected after the strong purchase by both foreign funds (RM10m) and local funds (RM15m) yesterday.

This has made YTL and YTLP share price volatile, and in a way created a good trading range for short term traders who then aggravate the volatility.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by raymondroy > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@dragon328 ..... yes its clear that Q4 2024 cannot possibly match Q4 2023, further more Q4 2023 also has RM350m earnings in investment income coming from technical services accrual and jordan oil shale.

Very importantly now can Q4 2024 net profit exceed Q3 reported net profit of RM681m?? I think Q4 shd be higher surely ??? No?
If you say PS will only earn S$223-240 in Q4 this will mean its lower than Q3 2024 earnings of S$241? This cannot be... as Q4 USEPs are higher than Q3 USEPs?

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@raymondroy, PS earnings in Q4 FY2024 will be higher than that in Q3 FY2024.

All in, I expect YTLPower to register net profit higher than RM681m in Q3 FY2024.

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Mr. OTB, yes contributions from AI data centre division will be more than enough to cover the expected softening earnings from PowerSeraya in FY2025 and FY2026.

In my earlier earnings projection in May 2024, you can see that I estimated net profit contribution of RM235m from AI data centre and RM75m from colocation data centre in FY2025, which will be almost enough to cover the estimated shortfall in PowerSeraya earnings.

I expect UK businesses (Wessex and Brabazon) to contribute more meaningful earnings to YTL Power from FY2025, which will drive an overall growth of 17% in FY2025 earnings of YTLP.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@Mikecyc, I cannot be seen as a promoter of YTL Power anymore, but would like to answer some of your questions above.

The YTLP-Nvidia collaboration on setting up a 100MW AI data centre at Kulai DC Park is progressing as planned, with the 1st phase scheduled to get commissioned in Q1 CY2025.

The RE import to Singapore has been well documented now as Singapore EMA has already issued RFP to solicit up to 4,000MW of RE import from 2030. Many parties have since announced interests to supply RE to Singapore, from as far as Australia and Laos. But these two projects for import of solar power from Australia and import of hydro power from Laos have been declared dead as promoters have found it too difficult to implement or not feasible at all.

That would leave the viable choice as RE imports from Malaysia or Indonesia only. Malaysia government has already approved RE exports from Malaysia in early 2023 if I remember correctly, and has since pushed for legislation to enable Third Party Access (TPA) by RE producers to use Tenaga's power grid to export or to supply directly to RE consumers in Malaysia.

Posted by OTB > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Mr Dragon328,
I believe PAT in Q4 2024 will be higher than 699 million.
I hope to see a PAT of at least 800 million in Q4 2024.
-------------------
Posted by raymondroy > 4 hours ago | Report Abuse

@dragon328 ..... yes its clear that Q4 2024 cannot possibly match Q4 2023, further more Q4 2023 also has RM350m earnings in investment income coming from technical services accrual and jordan oil shale.
-----------------
If you take out extraordinary gain of 350 million, the actual PAT for Q4 2023 was 780 million.
If PAT for Q4 2024 is > 800 million, then the actual PAT for Q4 2024 result is better.
I hope all investors or fund managers should think in this manner.

Moreover, the stock market is 6 months to a year ahead of economy, many analysts will take the EPS of FY 2025 to project the target price.
I believe there is a growth of around 20% in EPS in FY 2025.
All analysts also use EPS of FY 2025 to derive the target price of YTLPower, there is the real reason all analysts projected high target prices for YTLPower as follows :-
Target price of YTLPower set by broker
HLIB - 7.55
Macquarie - 7.30
RHB - 6.68
Affin - 6.45
TA - 6.35
MIDF - 6.35

I hope the share price of YTLPower will be steady after Q4 2024 result is out.
Good luck.
Thank you.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by mf > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average

40,232.14

-125.95

0.31%

Nasdaq

NASDAQ Composite

17,659.07

-338.27

1.87%

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by kahfui1221 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Spending RM792 million on NSL ... Ytl will temporary go down 1st

Posted by raymondroy > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@OTB..... i think u left out kenanga as one of the IBs TP of 5.44 :-) which is the lowest of the lot.... kenanga on the other hand is always cautious, either way all of us are hoping for a stellar Q4 performance that will range from perhaps lower end of 680m to highs of 800m fingers crossed.... if not pulled down further by wessex and/or ytl telco.... hard to say.
As either way, YoY the qtr results will be lower, there will be some push back on the price on the short-term, thats why at least im hoping Q4 result swill be better that Q3 results...... which shd cushion the impact...... fairly there but not 100%.... thx on the feedback @dragon328.... happy hunting :-)

Posted by raymondroy > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

bloodbath :-( at nasdaq

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Red sea today.

Posted by paktua73 > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by paktua73 > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by paktua73 > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by OTB > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Posted by Mikecyc > 9 hours ago | Report Abuse

Haha DC is delayed from middle of 2024 to Q1 CY2025.
--------------------
Do you know that the financial ending of FY 2024 is June 2024.
The partnership of Nvidia starts in FY 2025 is not wrong.
I also keep track on this project, the message said "starts at the second half of 2024".
I believe the posting by dragon328 is correct.
I keep track and keep all dragon328's posting in my notebook for my reference, to my surprise all notes are correct.
I respect this good writer like dragon328, he writes with facts and figures.

Thank you.

Posted by OTB > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Win or lose in the stock market is part of the game.
Posting good and accurate article in I3 is very important.
Honesty will only earn respect and the god will bless you.

I recommend Supermx in 2020 at 3.60, the share price went up to a new high at 24.50.
On the way up, my naysayers also attacked me day and night.
I did not care and ignored them.
I sold most of my shares > 20.00.
I am the last one laughing all the way to the bank with super profits which I never dream off in my whole life.
I hope YTLPower will be the next one.
Good luck.
Thank you.

Posted by paktua73 > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by ks55 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Dollar cost averaging technique.
If you have bought at 5 ringgit, surely you should buy more at 4.70
Then to 4.35
Then 4 ringgit.

Buy more make more.
TP 6.30

Posted by paktua73 > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by ks55 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

I bought KSL from 60 sen all the way down to 40 sen. I have being selling KSL now making not less than 300%.

Posted by newbie9893 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

DJ & Nasdaq might collapse anytime from now....pls sell all & cash out

Posted by troy88 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Correction is due to wall street correction. Q4 US market will be resume bull again and will be super strong all the way to 2025. Those who haven't bought now is your chance to load up before super bull when S&P index will smash 6000 pts later this year

Posted by chamlo > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Francis Yeoh never buy lately? Only ESOS he bought? Meaning YTL Power overprice now?

Posted by superman_ > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Great sharing dragon and Mr OTB, thanks for all your kindness, you actually can keep this to your self, but your share it out, we greatly appreciate. I agreed with Paktua, forum need members like OTB and Dragon to get info.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Congratulations to Red sea warriors. 🎉

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

RM 4.70 or below is a good buy for this energy and AI stock for PE round 10 market leader in this bull mkt.

Posted by paktua73 > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by chamlo > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

TP RM 6.3 is so call honest? Pls mention when can achieve? Is it Sep or Dec 24 or 2025 or even further?

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Based on the recent site visit organised by YTL Power to its Kulai DC Park, some analysts already posted update report on the progress of the data centre construction on site. An extract from RHB analyst follows:

"• YTL Green DC Park visit. We recently visited the YTL Green Data Park in Kulai, Johor. The visit was hosted by YTL Data Centres (YTL DC) CEO Heng Wai Mun and his team. YTLP commercialised its first 8MW DC – contracted to Sea (SEA US, NR) – in May. Despite a relatively slow ramp-up by Sea, there is no major earnings impact to YTLP, given that co-location fees are based on take-up capacity rather than live capacity. Additionally, YTLP is still in talks with several potential customers on the remaining 16MW capacity, and there is still a potential for it to be configured into an AI-DC.
• 100MW AI-DC update. The first 20MW is at 70% completion and should be ready for server installation by year’s end. The remaining 80MW capacity is also still under construction and slated for a mid-2025 completion. "

Ambank Research analyst also reported the same after the site visit, saying that the 100MW AI data centre is on track for completion in 2025.

Hence, I have no reason to doubt the update reports from these analysts, and assume that the 100MW AI data centre will start contributing earnings to YTL Power in FY2025 and more meaningfully in FY2026 once fully completed.

Posted by superman_ > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

I remember on year of glove, because of great forum members posted about supermax and glove related info, enable me to holds and laugh all the way to the bank. i am late comer at that time. i get in supermax RM 6.90 , i let go at RM 21.80. Within this 'waiting' period, we get lots of negative comments , and the flucture of the prices. Due to that, it create an excellence training ground for investors to build house on rock, not on sand. With current noise, it cannot shake a single bit of what I have invested, bcos my house are build on rock.