Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-16 14:00 | Report Abuse

The words let's ignore ql and focus solely on fm shows you are totally in your own world, ignoring facts and just plucking figures out of the air to fit your thesis. When you say paying pe50 for ql ( which obviously includes all the net fixed assets, where again I repeat ql did 338 million in new fixed capex overall from the annual financial report last year) but try to fit only fm into the pictures, where exactly do you get the "numbers" other than ql saying their fm operations broke even this year ( after spending 100m in 2016 to start the fm business). Anyway, how does a single fm store costs you 300k to build with 100k refurbishment every 5 years? I'm really curious where you got these figures.

Here are REAL figures because you really should get instead of plucking figures out from the air.

The master franchisee in Malaysia of family Mart is maxincome resources sdn bhd, which is a full subsidiary of QL. As far as I know QL doesn't report the breakdown performance of family Mart. Correct me if I'm wrong on that.

So if you really want to look at exact performance, you should go and invest and buy the ctos/ccris reports of maxincome sdn bhd so you can have an exact idea of how they are doing.

Key questions you should be asking, after they pumped 100m into starting the franchisee, how much more did they have to pump to keep the company afloat. They also said they are breaking even in 2019, 3 years after starting fm, what does that mean? And their p/l breakdown? Their assets? Their company stability? All of these are available when you buy the reports, same as a bank when they do analysis on whether to give a loan to you.

They don't pluck figures out of the air. Anyway, I first bought 100k shares when it was really cheap almost 10 years ago and held on to it until now, with stock split and price increase until today.

And in all that time the only reason why I never sold those shares and even added with my dividends was for one simple reason, monopoly.

As long as that doesn't change, my buying habits into ql will simply not change 20 years from now. Hopefully.

Warren buffet says that you should invest as if you only have 3 stocks that you can buy in your entire life. When you realize what he means you will quickly find out that there are only a few guaranteed stocks you can buy, stocks with monopoly/duopoly structures that are economy resistant.

I'm now happy to say that I have more than 400k shares in QL collected over the years which are almost ten-baggers in capital gains now.

It may be small compared to the profits you have gained from your trading/fundamental pe/ etc, but I have the conviction to go big and go long on this stock almost 10 years now. I only have 4 stocks in my portfolio.

How well have you done with all your research, Ricky boy?

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-16 14:18 | Report Abuse

FYI Ricky, how is comparing Nestle Malaysia and QL resources stretching the definition of comparison. Who else do you compare QL to in bursa?

Both are into commodities, one basically imports raw materials from overseas/local and processes it for local Malaysia consumption.

The other processes locally manufactured goods( seafood, eggs, chickens, palm oil) into finished goods for local consumption.

Both have retail operations ( one uses shelf space from hypermarkets and distributors like Harrisons /wholesalers etc) while the other uses FM/ hypermarkets/ and sells to wholesalers.

One is 30b market cap with slowing growth, pe50 and 10+% margins for commodities with brand recognition. 5 billion sales.

The other is 10b market cap with high growth for commodities market, pe50 with 7% margins with brand recognition (family Mart). And growing 3.6 billion sales.

I mean, who else is in this market?

Do you even know what QL resources does?? It's really not a stretch to say once layhong lays over, and fm has 300-500 stores around Malaysia, once palm oil plantations recover, seafood demand increase and supply constricts, that margins go up to 9%, sales go up to 5 billion revenue. When that happens, would it be fair for QL resources to hit at least 20 billion market cap?

Obviously I don't know when that will happen. But it will happen sooner or later. I guarantee it in a commodities market ( unlike construction, or tech) because of human needs, volume, vertical integration.

If 3-5 years from now the market cap doubles, if you buy now you would make almost 20% annually. It's the kind of business even idiots can run once the system is in place.

Monopoly.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-12-16 15:10 | Report Abuse

1. A FM store that cost 250-300K capex and 100k estimate refurbishment is all in theedge or the star news, you're welcome to Google.

2. Ignoring QL is not ignoring facts, we are talking about if FM is worth 2 bil, because that's where the market is expecting the future growth to come from.

3. Average daily turnover of $6k comes from Affin, not the skies. Unless you have a better figure, give it to me.

4. Don't ask me to buy reports, since you're saying QL or FM isn't overvalued, so show me the numbers to support your view why it isn't. I have already put out mine.

5. How many shares, how much conviction you have is irrelevant and are no evidences to show QL is not overvalued or FM is worth $2 bil. Stick to the topic.

6. Whether market cap doubles in 5 years or not again is irrelevant to the discussion whether FM is worth 2 bil.

7. So far your justification why QL or FM is worth what they are now is only supported by comparing to Nestle using market cap, sales etc but nothing substantial to justify valuation like how does the future earnings contribution of FM is likely to be? And are they enough to fill the high expectation from the market? What is the cashflow QL or FM is likely to generate etc

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-16 15:20 | Report Abuse

The star news is your source of facts? Ok you have the upper hand. Anything other people say you will just have guesstimates, worthless talking to kids like you who don't ever read financial reports from sdn bhd or even annual reports, and simply rely on Google for everything.

Why should I show you numbers from reports that I paid money to buy?

Good luck in your investing future, lazy to even explain to you investing principles.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-12-16 16:07 | Report Abuse

If you're prepare to discuss, then better prepare to have your numbers ready. And to be frank, do I need to buy reports to find out how much FM can potentially earn per store? 7-11 is a really good benchmark and FM stores in Japan can roughly tell you how much per store can earn.

7-11 average sales per year is around $1 mil per store, Affin is optimistic to assign 6k gross per day, which is around $2.19 mil per FM store. At 5% margin you claim, that's $110k profit per store, so they expect 300 stores in 5 years, that's around 33 mil profit, we can start here. That's PE60 of earnings in 2022-23 based on 2 bil valuation of FM. Feel free to tear apart my thesis.

Let's put aside seniority or age, whether I am a kid or elderly or CEO doesn't say anything, just as whether you are the 30 largest shareholders of QL or a retiree has nothing to do with the topic. Well that says a lot that I can back my reasoning with figure purely from Google (even if my reasoning is absurdly wrong, at least I show my hypothesis is backed with certain sets of assumption). But I am still waiting for yours.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-12-16 18:33 | Report Abuse

That's okay, im in the mood to explain investing principle. How much a business is worth comes from the free cash flow it can generate over its entire lifetime. FCF being the operational cash flow generated by the business after the maintenance capex required to maintain its current earning power.

PE is simply a rule of thumb as to the expectation of the stock market on a particular stock. A stock with high PE (adjusted for any abnormal earnings) typically signify the market is expecting a future high growth, or put it simply, the ability to grow and generate high FCF in the future, even if current operation is making minimal profit or loss. Hence, the ability to generate high FCF has to be supported by some form of competitive advantage or moat. And one thing to keep in mind is growth is great only when business can earn an abnormal return, that is, return that far exceed the opportunity cost or cost of capital of the business. Put it another way, the difference between the ROC and its CoC determine the attractiveness of the business. But more importantly, the ability to maintain high level of ROC for at least a decade is what all high PE stocks needs to have in order to justify paying a high valuation. So 3 things a high PE stocks must at least satisfy:

1. Abnormal ROC - Substantially higher than CoC, preferably, higher than peers
2. Long CAP (competitive advantage period) - Ability to maintain abnormal ROC for many years
3. Long runway - a large market so reinvestment rate can be close to 100% (zero payout)

So does QL or FM satisfy these 3 points? QL's ROC of 11-15% over the past 5 years are satisfactory, but far from 'abnormal'. For FM, no one knows. ROC for Japan FM is around 13%, again, satisfactory but not abnormal. But this is fine, if the CAP is long.

How long is the CAP is hard to answer. If there is a competitive advantage, for both QL and FM, it can only be found in scale economies. QL certainly have the scale in what they're doing, and their main business should do fine for a long time. Does FM has a long cap? Possibly once they establish scale, but again, I don't see how they can earn abnormal ROC, in particular the competitiveness of retail industry.

What about long runway? QL has limited runway, given operation is solely in Malaysia, although expanding into neighboring countries. Their competitive advantage and scale are more restricted to Malaysia, and growth is going to track around population and gdp growth, which is in single digit. FM in contrast, has long runway starting from a base number of only 30-80 stores. But how much convenience store (CVS) can Malaysia accommodate? Every country is different, but if we use Taiwan which has very similar population number, their CVS ratio is 2211 people per CVS. That translate to about 14,020 stores for M'sia population. But keep in mind TW's annual household income is 8x of Malaysia (USD13K vs USD1.7K) hence convenience store capacity at present will be alot less than 14,020. But even if we assume there is indeed a long runway, considering FM's aggressive plan to add 300 stores in 5 years, the economic of earnings per store still couldn't not justify a valuation of 2 bil, and further unable to justify QL's current valuation since earnings of 300 stores can't even contribute to 10% of QL's net income.

Hence it is my hypothesis that QL or FM growth prospects based on those 3 points cannot justify their current valuation of 10 bil. Even if FM turns out way better than my estimation, current valuation will only allow one to achieve a market average return, not abnormal return.

Posted by Pewuf > 2018-12-17 17:36 | Report Abuse

i think the number dude fell in love with his QL, so happened that his pick prospered so he tried to reinforce his "belief" with more biases...its alright if your lucky pick is a winning stock

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-18 01:41 | Report Abuse

Hi pewuf,

My other 3 investments since 2009 buy and hold till now was in yinson, public bank and top glove. All lucky picks taken from Google, affin, and whatever the other one Ricky said. :)

Funny thing is, when I bought shares of each stock back then, the same financial asset managers said these counters were risky, they were too high, pe not good, growth prospects max out.

Luckily I listened to myself instead. To be honest, I'm not really good at reading all those details and ratios and technical analysis mumbo jumbo.

All I know is in bursa you can buy shares but you can't short them. Therefore our market becomes very unique because you can't punish bad stocks, only can don't buy them. And because of that the market will value good companies far higher than normal.

So my job becomes easy. I don't know about all those methods, but I do know business. And in business companies with monopolistic characteristics will be far more resilient and reliable in the long term than normal malaysia counters.

In Malaysia most companies are basically small cap. That's why there are many cartels that know small fish like you who just learned about Warren buffet 1-2 years and think they can invest like him based on PE and time of thumb etc. And most of the time, they will work to push those small caps to present value traps which looks nice to newbie 1-2 year investors like Ricky yeo with their smarts into "investing" in those companies which they then goreng and let the bottom fall out. I pity people like Ricky because I see them all the time. They never make money in the long run.

All I am saying is if you want to invest in bursa, always look to the business first and foremost. Understand the business. Then look at the numbers. After you look at the numbers and the business, then you ask yourself am I buying a wonderful business at a fair price?

I'm proud to say I've never sold a single share of these companies since 2009, and I've been DRIP personally and with my excess cash ever since.

Before Ricky goes into another troll rant, just ask yourself this. What shares in bursa market have you bought and held for at least 5 years, and made a profit? And if you had to hold a share for the next 10 years what would you buy and hold? Because it's been proven, long term investors like me win over short term daytraders like Ricky yeo over any metric.

Whatever Ricky says about ql not being with 10 billion and overvalued etc, I know that sooner or later ql is going to be worth northwards of 20 billion value. I don't know when, but I do know that ql is paying me a growing dividend every year to find out and splitting my shares. And since my risk is basically near zero, I don't mind waiting.

Now Ricky, do share with us your latest grand profits from your forex currency trade? Don't bother denying, I know amateur fund managers like you always think zero sum games are winnable.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-18 02:17 | Report Abuse

Anyway, I'm sure none if you kids went to agm last year, which had pretty good food. If you did you will be far more interested in the details of their business more than anything. Here are some details that you probably won't learn unless you went to the agm directly and heard what they have to say:

1. QL spent 25 million in the cold storage factory in tuaran, KK last year to basically freeze and process tiger prawns for sale to China and Australia. And if you know anything about construction ,25 million just to build a huge freezer is very impressive. I won't tell you the metric ton per month they sold last year, you can find that out from Google yourself. And yes some of it is also being sold to premium FM at much higher profit margins than normal.
2. They are now 3% of Vietnam poultry and egg market. And growing exponentially.
3. They are now 10% of Indonesia poultry and egg market. Definitely growing exponentially.
4. They also are now one of the cheapest and fast growing feed mill manufacturer in both countries. Vertical integration. And when Ricky says QL business is only in Malaysia I shake my head and laugh.
5. Their surimi business is biggest in asean. FYI this is pure monopoly, as they are providing interest free loans to fishermen to buy or lease boats and equipment with the only requirement being that all catches to be sold QL first. Guess how many fishermen in asean owns their own boats versus loans from QL?
6. It's looking more and more likely that QL will own the entire egg industry in Malaysia. And as there is no control over monopoly in Malaysia, guess who wins?
7. Guess how many new acres of land in Indonesia is QL investing in for their palm oil activities?
8. Guess who family Mart has to buy all their fresh foods and materials from daily? Who else has that funky seafood dip food contraption? When family Mart wins, ql wins bigger.
9. I forgot. It's pretty important, but this uncle getting sleepy now, jet lag and attending my daughter's graduation in San Fransisco.

Have fun digesting.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-12-18 04:53 | Report Abuse

Thanks uncle for the writing while you're on holiday. But what are you trying to prove? That long-term investor is smarter than daytrader? You have to come off from your own ego. And it is necessary to know the limit of your knowledge and luck. In order to satisfy your ego, I don't daytrade, I own Scientex for 6 years but I am in no illusion to think Scientex will become certain market cap in 10 years or will always perform well like in the past. Just because Scientex gave me 800+% return I'm in no illusion that I know everything about it. That is the problem with long-term investor that I like to avoid, the illusion of safety after a stock has gone up for a long time, that kind of delusion is what kills people that own Gtronic, MYEG etc because they believe nothing can go wrong.

And as a matter of fact, I like to stress again, regardless of age, the label you gave yourself i.e long-term investors, growth, trader, speculator. Those are irrelevant. When you are in the forum, I only label you as an intelligent human, and expect that you can argue and discuss based on facts, logic and reasoning without telling people how much you own this or how much you make. That is more like ranting to me. And I am surprise I get called a daytrader but at least I can throw out my hypothesis. I am still waiting for yours to justify QL and FM valuation.

1. 25 mil cold storage factory - Great. I appreciate if you can tell ROC for building that
2. 3% in Vietnam - That's certainly great, they are growing good revenue.
3. 10% in Indonesia - Same. But I believe QL is not the only vertical integrator in both countries. How much market share can they grab and steal remains an unknown.
4. I never said QL is only in Malaysia. I said scale advantage is prominent in Malaysia given their market share. Maybe study a bit about scale economies.
5. Monopoly is great. So how is that translating into cash flow for QL?
6. Own entire Malaysia, great. Which means there is no exponential growth in Malaysia, and given eggs price is capped, volume tied to GDP and population growth. QL certain win. But cash flow growth won't be coming from Malaysia.
7. Does that matter? Let me go pick a plantation company that invest more acres of land than QL so you will feel impressed?
8. Yes FM buys from QL because they are the franchise, so? Even without FM, QL's customers orders their fresh foods from them as well. So what's the point you trying to say?
9. Tell me when you remember. Must be you are going to tell me how to justify FM 2 bil valuation. Can't wait.

Posted by ajibkor > 2018-12-18 05:13 | Report Abuse

PH only good at cheating.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-12-18 07:34 | Report Abuse

Uncle (as out of respect way of calling), I don't tell people how much I made (unless it is relevant to the context), how many shares I've, how much return because that is a huge sign of insecurity. When someone can't discuss the core topic, they talk about someone's personality, or his own great return, how much he made etc. Uncle, it is great you are a long-term investor, never sold a share since 2009, and in all honesty, that is a positive trait, but using that as a leverage to lower others that have different opinion only shows how insecure you are.

And whether I am a Warren Buffett wannabe, newbie, Harvard PHD graduate or what not, whether I attend AGM, married/single, does it matter? If you are so eager to categories me, it's because you're stereotype and insecure, personalise the market and create an identity build on a huge ego and pride.

While certain information are great i.e Indo & Viet growth and market share, but most of the information are meaningless i.e 25 mil cold storage, investment in plantation, who FM is buying from etc. I can tell you Scientex is largest FPP in Asia, how much they invest in opening factory in US, how much they spend acquiring Daibochi etc so what? Those are meaningless information. The only thing matter is what is the future ROC? You can't tell me. What is the future cash flow? You can't tell me. What is the store economic of FM? You can't tell me. I am not asking for precise figure of course. But at least something that can be tied to why valuation of $10 bil is fair and reasonable. Imagine someone ask me why Scientex should worth $4 bil market cap, and I say "Scientex is the biggest FPP manufacturer in Asia. Monopoly" You know how silly that sounds? Nokia has MONOPOLY too in 2007 with 49.4% market share, then what happened? AOL was a monopoly; IBM was a monopoly, then what happened?

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-18 08:54 | Report Abuse

Ricky,

Why don't you do some self study instead.
You said you bought scientex at 2.47 in September of 2012 and held it until today. Good for you. Did you buy more?
You said in April 2014 that it was fairly valued( with that growth and retirement pattern?) Did you have the conviction to buy more?
In 2015 you said it was overvalued, but you wished it went down so you can buy more. I would assume you didn't, because if you were you would be helping the scientex forum teach investors instead of trolling this one.
So I'm pretty sure you didn't buy any in 2016,2017 nor in 2018

Why don't you do your DCF, and look back at your track record of your roc, fcf, etc and tell me what you thought back in 2014 on the possibility of scientex hitting 4billion market cap. You definitely didn't think it was good enough for you to invest in it.

Let me tell you a bit about ratios. Roc, or my understanding of it is return of investment capital is based on your operating profit divided by your total assets minutes current liabilities. All of which can be restated or fudged. Land values can go up, operating profit has to take into account opex ( which you should be asking if it is abnormal), and in a comnodities traditional mode of business, it takes time for manufacturing to pick up.

Future cash flows based on DCF is also just as hard, because which discounts will you apply? I can use any number of figures to basically come up with anything I want? If based on dividends, definitely ql is a crap company. If I use weighted average cost of capital? Slightly better. Cost of debt? Growth rate? Discount rate? All of these are just ratios, garbage in garbage out. It's like reading horoscopes, you can get multiple results based on which bias you are working on.

Let me show you a better way. Yes you can mix those figures in to give you an idea of how a company can perform, but you need to temper it with business foundations. Here's what I did, when I went to the AGM 4 or 5 years ago, I asked the brother chia song kun, during the big bird flu scare, how many chickens did they need to cull, and how much of a percentage it was compared to the market average. His answer in the AGM regarding the culling and their care to biological health really impressed me( founder has a PhD) and I've been buying ever since.

You should read Peter Lynch sometime. His scuttlebutt method works so well with me for why I chose public bank ( all the major Chinese companies bank with them ), yinson( very well managed fpso business and dying bumi o&g competitors, and if course top glove (even nhs buy from them)

Have fun playing sandcastles and never needing to make big decisions in life.

But seriously. Take a risk. Attend AGM. Fork out the same money to buy trade reports, journals and read the financial statements.

I wish you all the best in the future Ricky. Talk less sand listen more.

Posted by Avangelice > 2018-12-18 09:18 | Report Abuse

843 are you planning to top up into QL? it has dropped significantly

Posted by godhand > 2018-12-18 09:39 | Report Abuse

family mart is a contemporary element to drive growth. it expand fast when its trending. it close fast when its outdated. its just a temporary strategy to drive growth.
The core business is superb.i wouldnt place so much importance on family mart. im more interested to know how they can moat widening their core business what extra value they can stack on their core business.

Posted by godhand > 2018-12-18 09:50 | Report Abuse

actually ricky is asking a very simple question. no need to put annual report etc into your defence.

QL is a superb company at very very expensive price. overvalue or not it depends on perception. value is a perception.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-18 09:59 | Report Abuse

Hi avangelice, it has only dropped by about 10% from last peak I think. I usually don't do impulse buy. My method of investing is usually every quarter, once the quarterly report comes out, if the business model doesn't change drastically (it hasn't), I continue buying. Sometimes I pay more, sometimes I pay less. But I've been buying every quarter for the last 8 years as far as I can remember.

Godhand: it's not a simple question, that's the point. Your say it's a superb company, that I agree with. You say it's expensive, I say it's fair. And by that metric you can argue until the cows come home because everybody has a view on the intrinsic value.

And it's only after Ricky has started deriding and trolling the other investors in this page that I started commenting and trolling him back. You can look at his past comments on his profile page. He is a troll through and through. He doesn't want to listen to your answers, he just wants to argue.

Posted by godhand > 2018-12-18 10:04 | Report Abuse

im not being biased but i can see ricky is a very experienced person. lets just learn from each other. no loss

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-12-18 10:05 | Report Abuse

Uncle, you come out to claim my hypothesis is incorrect, yet you can't offer any credible evidence to justify 10 bil valuation besides monopoly and investments they're making.

I never said anything about DCF. And of course doing DCF is tricky, and by all mean come up with a figure you want to justify 10 bil, because you haven't come up with any so far since the start of this discussion. And of course there will be multiple results. Investing is dealing with uncertainty and degree of confidence, there is nothing wrong to say a stock is worth between 1-2 bil and state the probability of that happening.

Yes I have read Peter Lynch, One Up on Wall Street. Scuttlebutt is great. But if you can't somehow weight the evidence you get from the scuttlebutt properly, that is as good as reading horoscope, agree? How does scuttlebutt justify 10 bil? Why not 1 bil or 100 bil? You still need to quantify it. If you can't 'quantify' your scuttlebutt evidence, there isn't much difference as garbage in garbage out too.

You have to agree it is not what you do, but the quality of thinking that matters. If attending AGM directly lead to great return, then that is more powerful than horoscope. Scuttlebutt has its place, for Phil Fisher and Peter Lynch, but it is far from a pre-requisite to make good investment, definitely not for Walter Schloss.

By the way, land value don't fudge ROC. ROC is measured at historical cost, how much the land is worth in the market now doesn't affect ROC.

Posted by rajachulan > 2018-12-18 10:40 | Report Abuse

基本面，政策面，前景，预测全部放一边吧！ 十一月三十号出现了爆量收红了散户们还不先走一趟？

董事们为了什么原因抛售我们不知道， 就是不知道才要留意趋势，势头不对就先跑一趟在旁边观望。

春江水暖量先知，股价会骗人，成交量是不会说谎的！

十日线和十周线都翻下了。。。

卖出股票的信号
1)个股出现天量之后，下面10个交易日都没有更大的量来越过。
2)单日爆出近期大量，当天股价收在最低点或是留下1根长上影线。
3)周量爆出波段以来天量，股价却连着2天明显走弱。
4)股价一周以来呈现剧烈震荡，但最后是以最低价作收。

大家留意保重

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-18 11:36 | Report Abuse

Ricky, I thought you were talking about future return of capital? If they bought 1000 acres of land in tawau 20 years ago and have not restated the values to current valuations, wouldn't you have an abnormal capital gains when it is restated to the value of the other averages value of average owned by ioi and hap Seng, and sold 10 years later. That's how I do deep value asset analysis, and that is how I added shares of QL.

As for justification, I could give you exact figures, but I prefer for you to come to the same line of thought, instead of asking uncle Google to just give you things as if you deserve them.
My hypothesis of current value 10 billion+.
1. Plantation asset valued below market(I used valuation reports from trade journals I bought of Sabah and Indonesia po industry and compared to comps from other plantations.) Yes it's very undervalued. By a few hundred million. It will correct sooner or later.
2. FM ctos reports of maxincome sdn bhd( assets and capital costs spent show new stores construction below 180k per unit, and daily turnover hitting 9k average in Klang valley), p/l shows breakeven, showing future growth not requiring outside capital. On track for 300 stores target in 5 years and daily sales with inflation at 10.5k imho
3. Myr exchange rate on track for 4.2 in the near /mid future, making me sad. But good for export gains. You can check quarterly report on the forex gain alone.
4. Looking at projects, projections and market growth, we are looking at 300-500 million of revenue growth average increase every year conservatively. Meaning they will be projecting conservative revenue of at least 6 billion yearly in 5 years.
5. However the capital investments to grow the business is massive, around 338 million. They are currently now after completing all of this years construction at 68% capacity. Meaning sooner or later, the growth will slow and they no longer need to build that many new plants, only refurbish or repair existing upstream and downstream activities. So if I fudge and bring down their operating capex flows, to 50% that is still around 150 million per year. Or more demand could come meaning even better prospects. And yes I know everything about depreciation and amortisation, but to be honest those are just estimates given by accountants with no basis on how well the equipments assets are maintained and serviced. And I can tell you management for ql is bar none in this regard. However imagine if ql instead of employing capital to more growth declared it as operating income. That would be at least 400 million in net profit instead. But why pay all that tax? I have no qualms with them spending ferociously on growth.

6.They are spewing almost 300 million of cash flows every year, in 2014 their plant activities was around 180m and revenue was around 2.6b. in 2017 their plant activities was around 338m and revenue was around 3.6b. their debt gearing ratio is outstanding for such a fast growing operation( which is another value why we justify 10b valuation) because it is a snowball rolling with its own strength now. Show me another business with similar metrics growing with debt that low in bursa. And please don't quote me aeon credit, because the main retail is complete trash. If the retail went bankrupt aeon credit would disappear tomorrow.

These are hints. You should look for the details yourself Ricky.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-18 17:35 | Report Abuse

10154899906070843,

Uncle. You are intelligent. But a fool and completely blind to many things at the same time. However, you do get the big picture right, mostly.

You need to consider learning more. Let me just put it this way.

A great business at a high enough price, can turn into a bad investment. A bad business at a low enough price, can turn into a good investment.

If this does not make sense to you, well, at least you bought those companies at very low prices. Just don't go on margin and you should be able to live out the rest of your days in comfort, despite any subsequent foolishness.

Read ricky again. He is not perfect, but he is humble and not stupid.

Posted by Up_down > 2018-12-18 19:48 | Report Abuse

QL has been experienced high growth period few years ago. PAT seems stagnant for the past 3 financial years. By looking at the PAT trend, QL may not able to enjoy exceptional profit growth in near future.

Cash call is going to be real soon as its gearing level keeps moving upward. QL did make a right issues when the gearing reached between 44% to 48%.

Right Issues:
FY 2014 - 300m
FY 2011 - 116.6m

PER: 48x
Dividend yield : 0.73%
Gearing: 40%
Dividend paid: 401m ( FY 2011 to FY 2018 )

PAT
FY 2019 - 105m ( 6 months)
FY 2018 - 216m
FY 2017 - 207m
FY 2016 - 202m
FY 2015 - 196m
FY 2014 - 167m
FY 2013 - 138m
FY 2012 - 139m
FY 2011 - 133m

Turnover
FY 2019 - 1,736m ( 6 months )
FY 2018 - 3,264m
FY 2017 - 3,012m
FY 2016 - 2,852m
FY 2015 - 2,708m
FY 2014 - 2,457m
FY 2013 - 2,147m
FY 2012 - 1,947m
FY 2011 - 1,777m

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-18 19:50 | Report Abuse

Oh good good, another amateur fund manager. And worse, a kyy follower to the bone. I do consider learning, but definitely not from you. And a fool and completely blind to boot!

Incredible. Please don't talk to me about margin, when you pulled your friends and family into those bad businesses like liihen, Latitude tree and rce capital in 2017( buying high and selling low). Oh yes I've read your so called memo, when you took your fund into Maybank margin to take advantage and buy even more Latitude tree, liihen and rce capital. Wonderful! Any margin call yet?

A bad business is a bad business no matter how cheap it is. You will learn that too late, because the market is never stupid. Invest in a company that gives free shares options to it's staff at cheap rates? That's a bad business that gives great profits, but hides dilution and poor management. The only thing they do is be ah long, but never making money on asset management, not having a monopoly or market leadership, all you have is an investment in a "value" trap that you probably don't even realize. If you had invested in QL instead of rce capital since 2017, you would have doubled your money for your investors ( even with this huge drop this month), and made good money for your family.

Liihen and Latitude? Please, don't make me laugh. You bought Latitude at it's height, when signs were very clear that their business impact had changed drastically ( workers salary had increased tremendously), but you still looked at cash and their "intrinsic value", until their revenue prospects changed and the market turned on you.

With your investing skills, I sincerely hope you don't use margin it drag your family members into your fund. It's horrible when you are the fool and completely blind to many things at the same time.

FYI, I only used margin once in 2011 after my shares had doubled in value, and only buy in every quarter after the quarterly financial results come out.

And actually, I do appreciate Ricky, he is definitely not stupid and humble. I was only angry with him for his attitude to the other investors on the ql page, and I do regret that.

You on the other hand, are neither humble, not smart, and definitely not perfect.

And calling me a fool and blind in one sentence? Talk to me again in 5 years after tripling your investment in Latitude, liihen, and rce. Do you have that conviction? I've been adding to my position in ql for the last 9 years. I may not know much, but I definitely know my stock.

Let's see which stock performs better in 5 years, the superb business with pe50?, Or the bad business with pe5.

Posted by striker888 > 2018-12-19 00:31 | Report Abuse

Went to 7/11 for top up, I was the only customer. Past by FM, the line of people waiting to pay. Really shove your numbers up your are.

Posted by striker888 > 2018-12-20 09:47 | Report Abuse

VT claims 711 Malaysia is worth USD1 billion, so I claim FM is worth at least USD 2 billions, hahaha. Buy buy buy if QL dips below RM6

Posted by Lai Peng Chin > 2018-12-21 13:17 | Report Abuse

Festive seasons, good business for QL.

Posted by godhand > 2018-12-21 16:38 | Report Abuse

7 11 has 2000+ stores while QL has like 60 stores. Are u like downright retarded

Posted by striker888 > 2018-12-21 17:27 | Report Abuse

It would be my wet dream for QL to drift below 6, then I'd go all in. Given how well the stock holds its ground in this pessimistic environment, imagine what the stock will do in a up market. Hahaha, feel sorry for all the sour grape losers.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-24 14:22 | Report Abuse

10154899906070843,

Haha you're a cute one.

You clearly know nothing about me. Im fairly certain KYY would not classify me as his follower.

Lehman brothers, if you bought once bankruptcy is announced, you would have made a lot of money. Publicly one guy in singapore did that.

Talk about an absolute shit business, at a honestly quite fantastic price of close to zero.

My margin loans, for it to even call me once, the market need to drop from 1600 to 400. And i've recently paid off 50% of what i used in cash. Now i'm only leveraged 15%. Good luck margin calling me. Not impossible, but i can handle it anytime.

And i would be so happy the day i get margin called. Imagine rcecap at 0.4. Wah piang!

My RCECAP is still up 3.5% this year off my average cost (Net of div) of RM1.39. Not sure what you mean.

Yes, i would have doubled my money if i bought ql. But i would have made speculative money in a stupid way. Opening me up to losing money in a stupid way.

I hope you don't do so. Old d, very hard to save yourself if you screw up financially now.

How about this. You take up 200% margin to sailang into QL now. We see 5 years from now, what your returns like.

"Let's see which stock performs better in 5 years, the superb business with pe50?, Or the bad business with pe5."

Well unker, Why not incredible business at 30 PE (google), or 17 PE (Facebook, apple), 15 PE (TSMC), 20 PE (NVIDIA), 10 PE (BAYER Chemicals). 8PE (ALLIANZ ZURICH).

I think my heart soft d. Trying to save fools and even make some many by showing other options.

Good luck, no time to layan overly egoistic individuals.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-24 14:25 | Report Abuse

VT also very foolish businessman in my opinion.

Every single one of his decisions is bad. If not for him getting the toto license and being close friends with Tun M.

He long ago go holland d.

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Posted by striker888 > Dec 20, 2018 09:47 AM | Report Abuse

VT claims 711 Malaysia is worth USD1 billion, so I claim FM is worth at least USD 2 billions, hahaha. Buy buy buy if QL dips below RM6

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-26 10:33 | Report Abuse

QL at 50PE is better than Apple at 12PE.

Clearly.

Posted by hollandking > 2018-12-26 10:34 | Report Abuse

but is dif market. Don't used US standard to judege malaysia standard. They varied greatly

Posted by hollandking > 2018-12-26 10:37 | Report Abuse

bursa standard very weird one

Posted by hollandking > 2018-12-26 10:38 | Report Abuse

i started invest in us, came here, was really shocked, really diff

Posted by striker888 > 2018-12-26 11:52 | Report Abuse

Yes VT is a foolish billionaire. If you're so smart, how come you don't have billions to show for it? Do you even have millions? Hundred of thousands? Thousands? Hey as long as it makes you feel less sorry for your miserable life, keep the smart ass talks coming, haha

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-27 10:25 | Report Abuse

This is one of the more foolish things ive ever heard in my life.

The money made by US companies is more valuable than RM is it?

If a malaysian company list in US instead of Malaysia. The RM they make, the serial number of the notes can go buy toto is it?

please.


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Posted by hollandking > Dec 26, 2018 10:34 AM | Report Abuse

but is dif market. Don't used US standard to judege malaysia standard. They varied greatly

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-27 11:39 | Report Abuse

this jon choivo come back and talk crap again, 3.5% after 2 years still want to be a fund manager? I could make better money of the FD. lets see, you bought hengyuan and chased till negative even with no fundamental skill on business sense (not noticing they were closing down refineries for upgrade), you bought liihen when the malaysian workers salary had just increased tremendously (compared to other countries). And you think RCECAP is the best performing lending institution in malaysia (there is a reason why major banks dont lend personal loans to individuals without COLLATERAL, and why ahlongs always have tatoos and gangsters to chase money) <------ this is far more speculative than any other foolish thing i have ever heard. You buy simply based on PE, profit margins, and ROE without looking at the business model. You are like GOLDMAN swimming in the beach without any underwear. When the tide goes down, then we can see if you are naked.

For QL, i dont gamble like you do, with your sailang and your betting method. I look at the quarterly reports, and every quarter, i buy more in QL. Unlike your weak way of investing. I have been adding up my position in QL for almost 10 years now, with almost 2+ million shares. and those are accumulated personally slowly, and with short term leverage from trading houses. I have been "speculating" for 10 years now on the same stock, rain or shine, and will continue to do so as long as the business model doesn't change. And it hasnt, the business is more idiot proof than ever.

And yes, I bought 50K shares at 6.25 these past few days, after year end bonus and dividend came in. I do have that conviction. And I dont need to pull in my friends and family into bad business ideas.

In any case, you only spout those american stocks, with no idea of how they got where they are (if you did you would have bought them, which you didn't). I dont buy american stocks, I have no way of knowing how to value them, nor able to attend the agm to know the management well enough to make a business decision. I do know how to value QL stocks. I went to visit their factories. I have friends who are suppliers and contractors to QL( and are also shareholders because of the wonderful paymaster that QL is), and they give their very best service to QL because of it.

You know nothing about all those companies, nor who the CTO,CFO or CEO's are (because you dont know how to value management quality nor attend any AGM/ site visit) nor have any business sense to invest in any companies at all. Other than reading some books and think you know all there is to know about investing.

Do you know what a 10-bagger is? You obviously dont, because you dont have the acumen to invest in companies like that.

I have. I bought ql and topglov in 2009.

Now, why dont you go away from this QL forum (since you think it is so bad) and go goreng your RCECAP stock ( which i have taken a good hard look at, and know it is a non-growing business with finite potential, there is a reason why public bank and other major banks doesnt do big business in personal loans to individuals, guaranteed or not guaranteed by government) and what happens if they increase their loan basis (NPL is guaranteed to increase tremendously). but yeah, why dont you go 40-50% of your assets into RCECAP ( i did that with QL and TOPGLOV which i held big for 9+ years, so called speculatively).

And stop insulting other people on this forum. You dont have the right, you dont have the business sense. And you definitely dont have the results to show for it.

Be foolish elsewhere.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-27 11:55 | Report Abuse

I like people who buy ql......

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-27 11:57 | Report Abuse

people who buy ql have their own mind...I like that.....

Posted by PH_pakatan_menipu > 2018-12-27 11:57 | Report Abuse

Toll no free. Even egg/chicken no reduce price why all must cheat?

Posted by PH_pakatan_menipu > 2018-12-27 12:00 | Report Abuse

PH cheat to win GE14?

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-27 12:04 | Report Abuse

Despite my soft heart, i'm not so free as to save you and your money. If you want me to try, moving forward, ill charge you 50 sen for every word of advice. Cheap liao.

At the end of the day, wealth is organic. For the most part you are worth what you deserve. A fool and his wealth is soon parted.

You are old. Mostly intelligent. But incredibly foolish in some respects. You may have even run a business before.

To be worth RM5m- RM10m at this age is not bad d. Even if you are foolish, and lose half. You will still be worth RM2.5m-RM5m.

No time study google or apple? I really nothing to say. You must not have a computer, do you write your replies on paper and mail it to your daughter asking her to reply for you?

And to have a daughter studying in stanford the birthplace in silicon valley Aih... Good luck lah!

Anyway, you lived a good enough life, can send children study overseas. All the milestone hit d.

As long as don't margin, can live the rest of your days comfortably.

Feel free to buy as the chia's are selling (even they know its expensive). As long as dont buy on margin can d.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-27 12:05 | Report Abuse

choivo...your mentor the bufalo also has to adapt....


qqq3 good read......for bufalo people



https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-used-avoid-tech-11004182...
27/12/2018 10:37

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-27 12:06 | Report Abuse

He has always been capable of that.

The principles are still the same.

you just never really understood the philosophy that's all.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-27 12:10 | Report Abuse

Im really lazy to argue with all these old, egoistic, and retired individuals with nothing to do.

Know ownself wrong d, but cannot lose face. Die die must win.

I hope you're not as foolish and egoistic in your investments, as you are when you speak.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-27 12:13 | Report Abuse

me? I am a trader...I buy any thing and I sell any thing.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-27 12:15 | Report Abuse

me? I am a trader...I buy any thing and I sell any thing.....nevertheless, I like people who buy quality stuffs...I find most bufalo people are cheap skates......

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-27 14:23 | Report Abuse

this choivo...so young and so lansee...see how far u go lah.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-27 14:45 | Report Abuse

He can't go far, his mentality and his investing skills is just looking at top layer to make decisions. So he keeps on buying stocks with low pe and low debt, not knowing that many of these stocks are small/mid cap and results easily engineered.

Anyway he only started in 2017, already think he can advise people charging 50 cents for his word of advise. But if you look at his performance and his analysis of stocks, it's more than laughable. His so called "fund", which is only 2 years old and not even securities commissions approved, is already in the red, he has to take margin to buy stocks, which all have poor management capability, no moat, and looked growth prospects, always look like a good cigar butt deal.

If just judging from 2017-2018 period, my quarterly investment in QL already outperform all his other so called fundamental stocks. I'm sure he will use hengyuan as his example of a good purchase stock. But when he can't even evaluate what the true value of the stock is i.e sell high, buy lower, cringe as it went lower, he just sit and blame others as if he is qualified to teach people how to invest.

Maybe choivo should just keep quiet and come back in 5 years when he has a proper stock portfolio with a good track record to speak of?

If you don't have the conviction to purchase a stock for more than 5 years, it shows you don't have a clarity of purpose, valuation capability and a stable mind.

You don't need to teach uncle or be smart. You just need to be disciplined with your approach, and have a good grasp of the stock more than just numbers but as a business concern itself.

No need to teach uncle. Uncle already buy and hold QL for 10 years. I know how ql business works and how it will look 10 years from now.

That's why I'm still buying. Every quarter.