Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 23:02 | Report Abuse

an antidote against all the half past six value investors in i3..... and actually common in analyst community even

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 23:03 | Report Abuse

analyst community are not fund management community

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 23:03 | Report Abuse

analyst community are called sell side analysts

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 23:04 | Report Abuse

they have no choice but to use value investing language

Posted by probability > 2019-01-03 23:04 | Report Abuse

it would have been nice if someone had asked how the growth estimates were obtained and if the growth value justify the PE....with some maths..

and if the other had explained with some numerical value on the capex ROIC.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 23:05 | Report Abuse

fund management analysts are called buy side analyst

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 23:06 | Report Abuse

buy side analysts have no choice buy to use the language of business sense.... of understanding the business they invest in.

Posted by rajachulan > 2019-01-03 23:07 | Report Abuse

market need different view/voice to work... if everyone share same view/voice.. then who is going to sell/buy?

just ensure your view/voice delivery return...if not... learn to adapt...

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 23:21 | Report Abuse

lurk....don't la...don't worry.....no effect one.....stock market not about knowledge per se...it is also about character, habits and practise

Posted by lizi > 2019-01-03 23:22 | Report Abuse

if something can be calculated correctly using maths, everyone make money....not saying it is not important, but it is not the most important....

probability it would have been nice if someone had asked how the growth estimates were obtained and if the growth value justify the PE....with some maths..

and if the other had explained with some numerical value on the capex ROIC.....
03/01/2019 23:04

Posted by probability > 2019-01-03 23:25 | Report Abuse

we need some numbers...some ballpark figures to have a feel...after all the argument started on the PE...a number...

i see all the vocab that risen has much to do with ego....


Posted by lizi > Jan 3, 2019 11:22 PM | Report Abuse

if something can be calculated correctly using maths, everyone make money....not saying it is not important, but it is not the most important....

probability it would have been nice if someone had asked how the growth estimates were obtained and if the growth value justify the PE....with some maths..

and if the other had explained with some numerical value on the capex ROIC.....
03/01/2019 23:04

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 23:25 | Report Abuse

and yes...about the sell side analysts...u know...the stockbroker IB analysts.....they use the language of value investors....but as a group, they also don't make money one.....but they have huge influence in forming the habits and practice of retailers.


the good fund managers have to use their own approach away from the IB analysts......some thing akin to the long number guy approach.....

Posted by Outliar > 2019-01-03 23:31 | Report Abuse

cast your votes guys, who won?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 23:33 | Report Abuse

y lizi > Jan 3, 2019 11:22 PM | Report Abuse

if something can be calculated correctly
=========

of course they are ball park formulas one can use such as PEG ratio...PE to growth ratio.....

but...not as important as the mind set......

obviously.....if u got large funds to manage....u also hope u don't have to chou ta fai , ho sai kai.......u really do need to understand what u are buying.....not just whether it is over or under valued....which in the context of things is really secondary because the range is very wide and subject to a lot of influences.....but a great business is a great business...and everybody wants to participate in the growth of a great business...where got cheap one?

Posted by lizi > 2019-01-03 23:33 | Report Abuse

agree with some ballpark figure. I still prefer the casual/simple way of investing....like sifu cold eye....he said make it simple is the best, roughly manage to get the key points can solve the problem already.....if u look at cold eye sifu, he stress on wisdom....nothing fancy, nothing like nobel prize kind of logic....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 23:36 | Report Abuse

mathematically PE range is relative to growth and interest rates.....

but in reality...it is subject to other factors such as.....name recognition, reputation, whether it is a national jewel, monopolies....other factors..

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 23:37 | Report Abuse

d by i3lurker > Jan 3, 2019 11:33 PM | Report Abuse

qqq3

IB analyst dun have time. They need outpu

========

yes , u hit it on the head.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 00:25 | Report Abuse

i3lurker > Jan 3, 2019 11:33 PM | Report Abuse

qqq3

IB analyst dun have time. They need output.
==========


my son tells me his KPI is output......not accuracy.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-04 07:25 | Report Abuse

Personally I'd sum it up this way.

Choivo is the kind of person who would buy Berkshire when it was a low pe company with a lot of machinery assets and high intrinsic value, basically a cigar butt circa 1962.

I am the kind of person who will overpay 30 million for See's candy ( at pe6, during the 1973 depression when everything was rock bottom), I bought QL in 2009 when it s pe28.

But when Charlie munger told Warren to buy See's Candy even for 30 million (they finally sold for 25), his idea was to pay a fair price for a wonderful business.

Was Charlie and Warren able to calculate sees candy performance to 1.65 billion in profits, 400 million in yearly revenue and 100 million in earnings? No of course not! If it was possible to calculate that, Isaac Newton would have not lost his pants in the stock market. He was the absolute smartest man during his age, and he derived many theories of how to make money from stock market.

What they were able to surmised was the See's Candy moat.
1. See's Candy was a commodity, meaning everyone uses it.
2. In East California, buying See's Candy was equivalent in 1972 to buying a engagement ring for your loved one. In fact, it was equivalent to love!
3. Back in 1972, yes it generates a lowly 4.2 million ebit on 30 million of revenue. However, it used a very small amount of capital expenditure to do so. In fact, in 35 years, it only took 40 million of outside capital to grow to 400 million revenue!

Charlie started with the business opportunities first and the moat, then decided if the price was worth paying for.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-04 08:13 | Report Abuse

Now on my take on QL moat, which is how I think you should look at every business analysis first.

Understand your business. Then buy the stock.

1. Why is QL the leading surimi producer in Asia? It's just catching fish and processing it right? No. QL provides microloans to all the local fishermen to buy boats, fuel, nets etc but with the guarantee that any of their catch must be sold to QL ONLY. As most fishermen are poor, guaranteed sales and no risk on borrowing money from banks who need collateral, QL is their only source. This is prevalent in Sabah, and is now catching ground in Vietnam and Indonesia. If you ask yourself why eating seafood is expensive these days, a big reason is because the fishermen no longer sell to you!

2. QL not only does plantation, they also own boilermech which builds their refineries, does their biomass, maintains their plants. How many other palm oil plantations have that kind of vertical integration?

3. QL sells poultry and eggs yes. However more importantly, QL also sells fishmeal, produces animal feed and has a very high level of biological tech compared to others. Something the competition doesn't have.

4. Yes, QL seems overvalued today by i3 investors. But overvaluation becomes undervaluation if the growth never slows down. And as far as I can see, with their appetite for expansion, the demand for QL goods has never reduced and have caught up in their capacity.

5. Successful subsidiaries like boilermech and family Mart are highlighting the brilliance of management at QL. How do you put a value on this? Berkshire was going bankrupt pre buffett, 500 billion during his chairmanship. Management itself can be a moat refer to texchem and layhong. Layhong started in 1983, compare that to QL which was founded in 1987.

For me, my projection is simple:
I paid 28 pe for 1.3 billion with 100 million in net profit. (2009).Today it's doing 3.2 billion with 200 million in net profit. (2017). But the assets growth, the expansion into family Mart, the vertical integration and the monopolies in place continue to amaze me.

You say that growth of QL is fixed single digits based on last 10 years performance. But 10 years ago did they have boilermech? Did they have family Mart? Did they have penetration into Vietnam and Indonesia? What will the future be like? I don't know exactly, but I am confident enough to invest every quarter. As long as the story doesn't change.

Just think on this, any investment you make has a gestation period. I'm sure choivo doesn't do farming, but I have a 20 acre plot of palm oil in sandakan near ql agrofoods shared with my brothers. It took us almost 8-10 years for the palm oil to be fully matured and producing. In that time earnings were basically negative. But once we went through that hump, we were having great returns!

I don't believe in paying for a company at any price. I do believe in investing in a great company at a fair price.

I firmly believe that QL is still just gestating. You may think that paying pe50 is high for QL current performance. But we are not investing in current performance right now are we.

We are paying for the future.

P.s. and as long as we are throwing estimates in the air, in 5 years I'm estimating 500 million in earnings from Vietnam, Indonesia, family Mart and the recovery of palm oil prices. And in 10 years when the crude oil prices go up so high that palm oil gets more usage in commodities, seafood prices have become so high that the only crabs choivo can afford to eat is crab sticks? I'm estimating 1 billion earnings.

But really, do we really know? Previous performance can never guarantee future results. Both for good results, bad results and mediocre results.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-04 08:28 | Report Abuse

I forgot to add one more estimate:

1200 hectares of land in Sabah for palm oil matured.
20000 hectares of land in East kslimantan(5000 matured). Where is the earnings and land valuation on that?

Do you know? I'm sure you don't. Do I know? Probably a little bit. I was there to help commission their palm oil mill in 2012. Then I went and bought even more stock with company bonus.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 08:43 | Report Abuse

the debate should move to the new challenge for buy and hold

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robisbitts2/2019/01/03/the-new-challenge-...

Posted by rajachulan > 2019-01-04 08:48 | Report Abuse

page not found qqq3...broken link

Posted by striker888 > 2019-01-04 10:19 | Report Abuse

Sifu cold eye picked some shitty stocks like solution engineering. Sometimes sifu turns out to be sifat. Hahaha.

Trust no self claimed sifus.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 10:20 | Report Abuse

rajachulan > Jan 4, 2019 08:48 AM | Report Abuse

page not found qqq3...broken link
=======

must be time expired....too bad, good stuffs.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 10:22 | Report Abuse

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robisbitts2/2019/01/03/the-new-challenge-for-buy-and-hold-investing/#47da22de4745

try agin

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 10:25 | Report Abuse

The New Challenge For Buy-And-Hold Investing

out of 1000 stocks...there are going to be some exceptions.....for most people the time for buy and hold is over...

the when is more important than the how.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 10:27 | Report Abuse

the article calls it believing in.....The Easter Bunny is real;
Martians live among us

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 10:34 | Report Abuse

but I must add...long number is impressive.....

unless u have long number character, habit, technical expertise.....u are not going to make it.......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 10:36 | Report Abuse

people who criticise QL investors not going to make it.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 11:00 | Report Abuse

Choi

The difference between your approach ( and popular with i3) and long number approach and my approach is that Long number and I don't have to believe

The Easter Bunny is real
Martians live among us

you see....long number works at understanding his companies, I work at understanding the market...and u work at what? at margin of safety? at estimating valuations? how silly.....

Posted by rajachulan > 2019-01-04 11:29 | Report Abuse

thanks qqq3... i just want to add

''buy-and-hold investing is for those with extreme deep pocket with continuous cash inflow like owning a blood/cash sucking insurance company!

Posted by RajaBursa2019 > 2019-01-04 11:29 | Report Abuse

oiiiiii


Raja Chulan ada

Raja Bursa ada

Posted by RajaBursa2019 > 2019-01-04 11:30 | Report Abuse

apa lagi Raja ?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2019-01-04 11:33 | Report Abuse

rajachulan > Jan 4, 2019 11:29 AM | Report Abuse

thanks qqq3... i just want to add

''buy-and-hold investing is for those with extreme deep pocket with continuous cash inflow like owning a blood/cash sucking insurance company!
========

insurance companies by definition should be buy and hold.....

Posted by rajachulan > 2019-01-04 11:41 | Report Abuse

Ops sorry, let me rephrase,

buy-and-hold investing is for those with extreme deep pocket with continuous cash inflow like those (buffet) who own a blood/cash sucking insurance company

--------------------------------------------------------------------
stockmanmy > Jan 4, 2019 11:33 AM | Report Abuse

insurance companies by definition should be buy and hold.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 12:33 | Report Abuse

long number....

my analyst son know Yinson is a gem..told me the reasons.......I am surprised a member of the public also know Yinson is a gem....considering the image of OG companies now......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 12:35 | Report Abuse

lurk

did u read the article or not?

Posted by teareader818 > 2019-01-04 12:37 | Report Abuse

Long numbers is single handedly propping up QL's price in a bearish market. With assist from qqq3 any chance of buying on the dips?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 12:38 | Report Abuse

teareader818 > Jan 4, 2019 12:37 PM | Report Abuse

Long numbers is single handedly propping up QL's price in a bearish market. With assist from qqq3 any chance of buying on the dips?
=====

don't even bother if u don't have what it takes.....

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-04 13:05 | Report Abuse

Teareader it's a bearish market, epf just made purchase of 200k shares, the majority other buy another 6 million shares. Luckily choivo thinks ql very overvalued, otherwise next quarter I won't have a chance to buy.

As for YINSON, I don't treat it as a og company. It is more similar to DIALOG, they are just warehouse, transporter and storage for og. Therefore, whether or not oil go up or down, they will still enjoy good margins. And as transport companies always rely on management, they have very good guaranteed order book on hand.

Easier for me to estimate what will happen to YINSON 5 years from now, than a petron or hengyuan with crack spreads that I don't understand and have no idea how to analyze.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 13:17 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 4, 2019 01:04 PM | Report Abuse X

Petron vs QL.....

3 months money, 12 months money.....which has higher odds of nasty surprises.......Petron.

5 years money, 10 years money.......if things work out, which has better future...........QL

QED....for long number guy...easy decision......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 13:23 | Report Abuse

short term risk for Petron exceptionally high....look at how Brent price drop in Q4....every time oil rice drops so drastically, Petron profit plunges, into huge losses, due to selling prices adjusting down faster than cost of production which uses old stocks from higher prices.....

new competition from new Rapids refinery just completed....

for choi...he thinks he is smarter than market price....

for long number guy....he does not have to be smarter than the market....he just want to participate in the growth of QL......

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-04 13:25 | Report Abuse

Petron will have the same problem of spending billions & billions to upgrade their refinery to comply with euro 4 & 5 loh....!!
Their refinery are very old loh...!!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 13:29 | Report Abuse

actually Yinson business model is very similar to Sapura and Icon....they all do what is known as FSO, FPSO and OSV segment....

the real difference is just quality of management, planning and execution.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-04 13:34 | Report Abuse

Yinson at Rm 4.20 today is a dead duck like jaks at Rm 1.80 many months back....it will suffer the same fate loh...!!


Posted by qqq3 > Jan 4, 2019 01:29 PM | Report Abuse

actually Yinson business model is very similar to Sapura and Icon....they all do what is known as FSO, FPSO and OSV segment....

the real difference is just quality of management, planning and execution.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 13:36 | Report Abuse

stockraider > Jan 4, 2019 01:34 PM | Report Abuse

Yinson at Rm 4.20 today is a dead duck like jaks at Rm 1.80 many months back....it will suffer the same fate loh...!!
======

imo..raid...u know nothing about share market.....and finding great companies.....

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-04 13:37 | Report Abuse

u just mark my words come back in 9 mths time & see true or not loh...!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 4, 2019 01:36 PM | Report Abuse

stockraider > Jan 4, 2019 01:34 PM | Report Abuse

Yinson at Rm 4.20 today is a dead duck like jaks at Rm 1.80 many months back....it will suffer the same fate loh...!!
======

imo..raid...u know nothing about share market.....and finding great companies.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 13:58 | Report Abuse

actually Yinson business model is very similar to Sapura, Armada, Icon and the rest of the ducks....they all do what is known as FSO, FPSO and OSV segment....

the real difference is just quality of management, planning and execution.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-04 14:27 | Report Abuse

Hi qqq, I bet to differ, yinson is charter fpso only, their payment is fixed and contractual basis delivery only. Sapura is epcc, they design build maintain etc etc everything. The reason why they are worth 25 cents is because their payment is based on oil price. So if oil price up they make money after a certain barrell sold, and if oil price down then dead duck.

Bumi armada is a close comparison, however their vessel utilization rates of 43% and the contract profit margins is just silly because of their oversized get that they have to sell at a loss and absorb all the maintenance and repairs which is ongoing.

Yinson fpso and osv is running at 90-100% utilization. Basically they are a lean, mean fighting machine which uses only what they need, and gets more ship conversion as their market grows bigger. Right now they can afford to undercut bumi and the other for personally because of how well they are managed, while bumi has to keep selling ships with bad names like Armada kraken.

Looking at bumi Armada order book of 31 billion and comparing to yingson order Book and their management capability, I can basically tell you the story of what will happen 5-10 years from now.