1. Very much if IOIPG can prove its profit projections by analysts. Sometime, for property, timing is difficult to predict.
2. FYE 30 June 2014E = RM559m (not sure why so low, 1H already achieve RM543m).
3. FYE 30 June 2016F = RM1013 (doubled in 2 years, very impressive)
4. Not sure why HLIB valued it so low at RM3.85, growth in 2015 and 2016 is about 33% p.a.
5. Short term growth = 33% (2 yrs) LT growth, say, 8% (a quarter of 33%), using Benjamin formula it should be around RM4.32. So upside is quite good.
6. Buy slowly. Accumulate when profit shows improvements, from 2014, 559m, 739m and 1,013m. Even we use 7% growth for LT, it is worth RM3.90 (that means you assume it doubled in 10 yrs instead of analyst said doubled in 2 years.
7. Conclusion: Good upside, low downside, put it into safe deposit for 3 years and you will be happy.
Another stock is very interesting is SILK. In fact this stock is safer (higher margin of safety than IOIPG) because it owns 37km of rock solid toll roads with double digit growth in traffic and rates + 21 units of OSVs with LT charter. Growth will be reasonable but certain, just monitor their toll traffic and rates increase soon. Similarly, its OSV biz is doing very decent profit margin. Currently, not popular yet. Give it a year or so, when the earnings show, it will be double.
Moved faster than I thought. I wish it will consolidate a while before it move again. This way it really help long term investor and clear some contra player.
You are absolutely right, the first 13 days after listing, Titijaya dropped 12 days from RM1.90 to RM1.40 (dropped 26%) in Dec 2013 and today is about RM2.00
If you are right, IOIPG, the first 13 days after listing, dropped 12 days from RM3.50 to RM2.55 (dropped about 28%) in late Jan 2014 & hopefully it will goes back to RM3.50 in next few months.
Of course, this is not a good comparison, it so happen to be identical. Perhaps the recovery will take longer? Btw, this stock expected to grow from 2014 to 2016 about 30% p.a. Downside risk limited.
Don't try to plant durian tree near volcano (CI high: 1850) only can plant vegetable(fast growing, hit n run), long term investment not the right time..when CI down 1000, that we plant blue chip(durian tree) sure will made profit...:D
2morrow will up. Consistently @ 2 -3 cents /day. Yesterday was abnormal. If u bought yesterday it will only take a week or less 2break even. Why so worry?
Lucky it come back at this price. Please stay there for couple of days. At least let all contra player throw first. Also I have not accumulate enough hehehe....
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powerwk
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Posted by powerwk > 2014-04-05 00:54 | Report Abuse
Hope the same happen on Monday!