Posted by che bob > 2013-01-05 16:57 | Report Abuse

typo seh.. not micronln... its microln. soli.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-05 17:07 | Report Abuse

hei fei mau, that was my favorite song man! I used to sing it in Karoake, that one in Ampang Park, Delux, I think. Wonder still there or not? You know lah I was a contractor in the 1990s mah! Thanks. I am going to sing it more often, rather than that song "those are my favorite things" from the Sound of Music.

Posted by nightrader > 2013-01-05 17:22 | Report Abuse

fat cat...also small losses
b 1.80....
i forsee profit up
management is doing right
speculation....chocolate consumption in US

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2013-01-05 17:33 | Report Abuse

ya , i not really worry about gcb.

look at all these product list http://www.apollofood.com.my/index.php?cPath=77&sort=2a&page=1 , all also contain chocolate.

chocolate is addicting, and it taste good, demand will only get increase by time, growth is not a problem, this business is profitable and sustainable, and it pay dividends too, thats the main factor.

buy or not, you decide! fat cat leaving the house. :D

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-05 17:48 | Report Abuse

I have recommended this blog a few times already. It is not too many times recommending though.

http://www.intellecpoint.com/

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-01-05 20:24 | Report Abuse

Dear Kcchongnz,

Below is the email I received from my student Phang Soon Ping.

Quote
Dear Mr. Ooi,

Thank you for sharing. For your info, my ex-colleague kcchongnz who actively posting in klse.i3investor.com was my ex-colleague. He is a civil engineer as well as a qualified financial accountant by profession. and also a keen golfer.

Regards,

Phang
Unquote

Kcchongnz, you are very qualified, I have to learn from you.

Thank you.

Ooi

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-01-05 20:36 | Report Abuse

yeah, kcchongnz's contributions all these while showed he has some mastery of finance! good to know he is a qualified Fin accountant!

nothing on golfing to indicate i believe! LOL

Posted by aunloke > 2013-01-05 20:55 | Report Abuse

From the way he writes I know I have a sifu to follow and appreciate all the good work he does. Thank you KC I'm sure we all here will benefit from your posting.

Posted by luiyiyu > 2013-01-05 21:32 | Report Abuse

SCIENTX GOOD

Posted by AL833D > 2013-01-05 23:33 | Report Abuse

i make some guess (Not include W or CW):
1) 50% return in one year: Drbhcom@2.62, Skpres@0.355,pantech@0.69,NtpM@0.46, Bjcorp@0.58.
2) Double bagger: Silver@0.09, Lioncor@0.275, Megb@0.61, Mas@0.77(i think Malaysia boleh).
3) Five bagger:TMS@0.08(really bo?), Trinity@0.05(New talam?)
4) Ten Bagger: Glotec@0.07(Dont believe me la.)
Impossible la? then u tell me what ten bagger should be?
TQ

Posted by AL833D > 2013-01-05 23:54 | Report Abuse

AL833D! u never tell Why?
OKOK, here is my simple explanation:
1) 50% return in one year:This company bisnes very well in year 2013, good sales! (Investor like)
2) Double bagger:This company can double up if can solve their problem (malaysia boleh land)
3) Five bagger:This company 'cheap price' , just goreng ! RC, SL, DS, AL833?(speculator like)
4) Ten Bagger:I really dont know. just tikam/ punt on friend tips. TQ (Gamble like)

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2013-01-06 00:09 | Report Abuse

i tell u wat.. if u want to lose your money, better burn it with gasoline , it more faster than invest in all these junk stocks.

anyway, skpres and pantech is the exception. http://29.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lltzgnHi5F1qzib3wo1_400.jpg

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-06 06:06 | Report Abuse

Mr Ooi, thanks but no thanks for the "hard sell". I am a civil engineer, that is true. I had a very fulfilling career in civil engineer, in all three environments; in government, as a contractor, as well as in consultancy. No regret. Now my career is....a golfer. I am not a financial accountant, what qualified accountant? Not at all. That is true too. However, I am a fervent reader about everything finance. I have read a lot of books on finance and investment, fiction (stories, like the conspiracy theory; the true Enron story) or non-fiction (investment like One Up Wall Street). I do know something about financial accounting; not hell of a lot because I don't have professional training in accountancy, but I think I know enough not to get myself tricked by financial shenanigans. I believe in "Figures don't lie, but liars can figure". I somewhat agree to your "charts won't lie" too, but not 100% though, far from it. For one I find the stock market is highly manipulated. Tell me how many traders have been caught big time, even the expert chartists. Insiders often paint the tape. Hence that is why I believe the charts lie often. I am not qualified to argue with you that why I don't believe 100% that "chart won't lie". However I would be very grateful if after study the fundamentals of a company and before I invest in it, someone like you can give me a TA point of view.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-01-06 08:25 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by tand3 > 2013-01-06 09:34 | Report Abuse

Dear KcChong and OTB,

Thanks for your willingness from both to share your experience here.
Bro KcChong, when you said you like to read a lot of finance things, may I ask you when you want to buy into a company shares, key things that you go into besides fundamental is its financial report. But my question here is when we go through it, what is the key important things that you look into?
I'm not that good nor qualified accountant, so usually I only look into its eps, profit and debts.
If you don't mind, can you point out to me and the rest what important things to look into a company financial report.
Many thanks to you in advance.

Posted by New Insight Sabah > 2013-01-06 09:49 | Report Abuse

Some food for thoughts:

Almost All of Wall Street Got 2012 Market Calls Wrong
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-04/almost-all-of-wall-street-got-2012-market-calls-wrong.html

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-06 11:12 | Report Abuse

tand 3, what to look for in financial statements? Below is my analysis of Scientex for your information.
Scientex Berhad
Scientex’s revenue and net profit has been growing at a healthy compound annual rate of 7.5% and 16.2% for the past 5 years from 2007 to 2012. For the year ended 31 July 2012, its revenue and net profit amounts to 881m and 88 m respectively. It is expected to grow at a faster rate for the next few years with the acquisition of Great Wall Plastic (GWP) which was just concluded. Its business returns 16% on equity, achieved with a reasonably good net profit of 10%, a not so impressive asset turnover of just 1.1 times without having to depend on high leverage, but a low one of 1.5. With the merger with GWP, Scientex has strengthened its position as the largest stretch film producer in Asia, with an estimated 33% market share. This will enhance its profit margin and asset turnover in the immediate future. It is thus expected that ROE will expand. The business produced RM129 m cash flows from operation, one and a half times its net income. This indicates that income is “real”. After capital expenses, free cash flows last year amounts to 88.5m, which translate to FCF of 10% of revenue and 16% of invested capital, both very good indeed. Scientex has excellent financial health. Its total debts constitute only 11% of its equity. its current assets is about one and a half times its current liabilities. Its net profit is 120 times its annual interest payment. In fact Scientex has an excess cash of 36 m. Net tangible asset backing per share is RM2.30. In terms of receivables and inventories turnover, they are great at 51 days and 27 days respectively, below the industrial average. However, a good company may not necessary to be a great investment. It all depends on the price you pay for the value you get. At RM3.29, Scientex is trading at a reasonable PE ratio of 8.6, and an enterprise value of 7.3 times earnings before interest and tax. With the new corporate development which has been just concluded, I believe (yes just believe, nothing can be certain in finance) it would propel its growth path to another level. Hence it should be accorded with a much higher market valuation. My valuation of the intrinsic value of Scientex using discount cash flows analysis is between 4.50 to 5.50 with the reasonable conservative assumptions of growth rate of 8% for the next 5 years and 3% after that and a required return of 10%, 6% over the long-term Malaysian Government Security rate of 4%.

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2013-01-06 13:06 | Report Abuse

kcchong , u know --> buffett gor use 8 years to realize TA / chart predicting is pure bullsh!t?

if a great investor have to take 8 years to realize it, u have to wonder.. how long it gonna take for a ordinary investor to realize it?

im so glad he did it and tell everyone about it, and for me, it sure do save a lot of my time for try-error in the bullsh!ting TA chart.

famous quotes from one of the i3 member
' the company is making loss , but the chart look good '
-time to buy now.

HAHAHA how stupid is that!?

okay enough of that, i have look at scientex before, and i mark it as ' = ' = means okok only.

the DY is not really attractive, growth is no problem, but it involve property business, fat cat doesnt know anythings about property business, hence he dont like it..

all i know is property company in malaysia? must be sneaky 1, corruption anywhere, market price 1 hectare 5m , they under table deal get it at 2.5m etc etc, election is coming, better avoid it, plus.. i think property business probably at it peak already, heck.. i could be really wrong , i really know nth about property.

http://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/ptres/res12977.pdf

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-01-06 13:10 | Report Abuse

If hot money comes, someone may change his tune pretty fast about TA charts and property! :)

But the corruption part of it, 100% agree. Heck, even buying property one cannot go to DBKL and check information about the developers and their site plans and original drawings that was approved without their consent! How sad is that?

Posted by necro > 2013-01-06 13:17 | Report Abuse

Cant be like that la kc,if can like that income tax file can be la....

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-06 13:24 | Report Abuse

Yeah Scientex main business is in property development, 2/3 of it, the other third is in flexible packaging. The property development is actually doing very well also. That is why the good results. I don't really like property counters too because after the development of the land available, what next? There are so many other more undervalued property companies around, why Scientex? But this seems to be changing for Scientex. It has acquired GWP and has become one of the biggest players in this region, a monopoly in this industry. Read the report below from TA.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/12977.jsp

As I said before, a good company may not be a good investment; and a bad company can be a good investment. It all depends on the price you pay for the value you get. The investment merit of Scientex is the value it can provide with the price we pay. Well nothing is for sure in investment. I could be wrong.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-06 16:42 | Report Abuse

fei mau, Let's look at this two companies regarding dividend, and dividend is what you are shouting about. You were absolutely right to imply that Guan Chong has a higher dividend yield than Scientex last year. Guan Chong's dividend was 11.25 sen while Scientex is 14 sen. At the share price of 1.65 and 3.29 respectively for Guan Chong and Scientex, their dividend yield works out to be 6.8% and 4.8% respectively. Guan Chong has a higher dividend yield. Let me tell you something else which appears to be good for Guan Chong which Scientex has not. Guan Chong even buys back shares. It has more than 5 m treasury shares in its balance sheet last financial year. Everything points to Gaun Chong a better company to invest right? Not necessary in my opinion, even though it has a "Chong" in its name. For Scientex, it can pay out this dividend easily as it has 100 times of free cash flows over its interest payment last year. I encourage you to Google what is free cash flows if you are not sure. Why didn't then Scientex pay out more dividend which it can easily afford? The answer is Scientex needs the money for capital investment and investment like buying Great Wall Plastic etc. Where does Guan Chong get its money to pay its high dividend last year. From borrowing more money from bank. This is because Guan Chong' business did not produce any FCF. It produces negative FCF every year for the last few years with the only exception of the year 2011. Worst, it did not even have positive cash flows from operations last year. Meaning they even need to borrow money to do its maintenance capital expenses and pay dividend. Yet it pay high dividend. From where they got the money? Obviously from more borrowing. How do I know? Whereas can it be? Can money fall from the sky? Just look at its borrowings. Its borrowings have been increasing every year. Last year, its borrowing doubled that of the previous year to 437m now. I have the feeling that Guan Chong did not even pay much of its annual interests all these year but capitalized this interest costs into its balance sheet because the interest cost last year is less than 2% of its total borrowings only. Is it right to borrow to pay dividend? Again, where did they get money to do share buyback? I am sure you got it right. Why did Guan Chong do this paying high dividend and share buyback when there is no money left coming from its operations? Let me make some very wild guesses. The management want to show that the company is doing fine, a signalling effect. Insiders buyback shares using the company's money to jack up its share price and at the back they sell. Just wild allegations only here. So Gaun Chong higher dividend yield but is it better than Scientex? Anyone?

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-01-06 17:21 | Report Abuse

Necro there was a structural flaw that even their out-going residential engineer admitted for a property I bought. When I approached dbkl, the haji there was kind enough to inform me his reading of record that is was flawed indeed but they cannot release the documents to me without developer's consent. That was the rule! Subsequently a datuk took the developer to court, an out of court settlement we buyers heard was promptly done to the tune of 200k and repairs for the datuk's house. The offer was not extended to the rest of us. Still left fuming about how this turned out with this unscrupulous developer. Sold the property anyway, but made about 160k out of it la.

Only trust mah sing and spsetia thereafter! 5 year guarantee! Hehe

Posted by New Insight Sabah > 2013-01-06 18:04 | Report Abuse

Red flag is raised when companies have to borrow to pay dividends.

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-01-06 18:08 | Report Abuse

"Not necessary in my opinion, even though it has a "Chong" in its name."

LOL

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-01-06 18:11 | Report Abuse

"Why did Guan Chong do this paying high dividend and share buyback when there is no money left coming from its operations? Let me make some very wild guesses. The management want to show that the company is doing fine, a signalling effect. Insiders buyback shares using the company's money to jack up its share price and at the back they sell. Just wild allegations only here. So Gaun Chong higher dividend yield but is it better than Scientex? Anyone?"

that's right kcchongnz. This is where charts can be deceiving if reading it alone. It must have some fundamental basis to check why the numbers move in a particular manner! kudos!

Posted by arebear > 2013-01-06 18:17 | Report Abuse

KcChong... good point out there... i did a rough check on GCB financial and yes indee it true that GCB keep on increase their debt portion over equity which went up to 173% ratio over equity and producing less cash flow...

Posted by sense maker > 2013-01-06 18:18 | Report Abuse

GCB reminds one of Olam. If FCF is nil, no point wasting one's hard-earned money on it.

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2013-01-06 18:21 | Report Abuse

kcchong, you must have a lot time..

im really a simple person, i like chocolate , and i dont like property business.

There is over 100 listed property company, and many private 1, everyone can do it, what make scientex a better property developer? i dont know.. seriously. and plastic ? i have no idea too.

but for cocoa processing manufacturer , not many people doing it, less competitor is more better.

as for cashflow, im not really a bean counter, but as long as it pay it dividend on time, and the revenue keep growing, i really dont care about how they doing their business.

do i worry about the company going burst going bankrupt? absolutely not! It is chocolate, everyone love it.

maybe you dont like it, or you prefer scientex, whatever it is, its your own decision, you decide! :P

as for me, i will keep the shares, its not a big amount anyway, so.. what the heck?

Posted by arebear > 2013-01-06 18:27 | Report Abuse

Well as for hidden gems in 2013, i would recommend WELLCAL, a rubber hose company with zero debt in balance sheet, the revenue and and profit is on increasing trend, pretty good dividend yield.

Posted by sense maker > 2013-01-06 18:44 | Report Abuse

Dividend yield for Wellcal is 6.7%. This gem is no longer hidden, having shot up 92% in 2012. The next impetus before it can move up to RM2.5-RM2.60 is conclusion of land deal that has been delayed as seller needs more time to convert the land from agriculture to industrial use. The coming quarter should see 4.3 to 4.4sen EPS and 4sen dividend. A good defensive play during GE as it exports 92% of its products and as they have 40% capacity expansion in the pipeline to be commissioned in 12 months. It works in replacemet market and resilent. But its reliance on OEM manufacturer has caused it to pass on some cost savings to this category of its customers. Still the fair value for Wellcal is RM3.00 per share in 12 months.

Another interesting play is Protasco which has added a company in oil and gas in Indonesia. The profit guarantee suggest an IRR of around 15% which is quite reasonable. The pricing for private placement in coming weeks will be interesting. If the Indonesian unit performs as envisaged, Protasco's fair value should be around RM1.50.

The unknown in Wellcal is smaller than Protasco, therefore safer. Protasco in turn has better balance sheet than Johotin. Johotin is also interesting but I am not sure if its product pricing power is strong for its dairy produc division. If it can keep growing its dairy division's GP, Johotin is worth at least RM2.30.

Posted by arebear > 2013-01-06 19:20 | Report Abuse

Hi Sense Maker, good note there. Thank you. About PRTASCO, i think you have a good point there as the very main gem lies in PRTASCO is it dividen yield and the lastest trend of its earning plus recent move of its prices. While as for the latest earning, PRTASCO has break record highest EPS with 6.06 and 3 Qtr profit for this year is 57% higher than previous year. Thanks again and I have put this under one of my watch list.

Posted by JayC > 2013-01-06 23:07 | Report Abuse

Mudajaya, waiting for catalyst, namely , election and India coal issue

Posted by aunloke > 2013-01-07 09:55 | Report Abuse

Huayang was a hidden gem before but after the recent run up I wonder it's still a gem. However if you compare with all the stocks mentioned above, it metrics stand above all, why not we take a close look at it to see whether it is still a gem.

Posted by davesingh > 2013-01-07 09:57 | Report Abuse

hidden gem= KCLoh's NUTS because they are so small.. they are for sure hidden....

Posted by davesingh > 2013-01-07 09:58 | Report Abuse

but i wont buy them they are worthless. non functional. so no worries...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-07 10:00 | Report Abuse

davesingh, have you lost your way?

Posted by davesingh > 2013-01-07 10:01 | Report Abuse

why kcchongnz???

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-07 10:02 | Report Abuse

don't you see this is a forum where we are discussing something useful?

Posted by davesingh > 2013-01-07 10:03 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz how come you never ask this question to kcloh??? when he is talking crap all over the place ah?? you must think this site is for yourself and him alone right??

Posted by davesingh > 2013-01-07 10:04 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz please la.. dont pretend OK.. you talk what you want i will talk what i want to talk OK.. if you dont like what i talk you can always report me !!! stop pretending to be a gentleman OK.. you are a fool.. with your pretentious analysis..

Posted by davesingh > 2013-01-07 10:04 | Report Abuse

how come gentleman kcchongnz you never tell kcloh anything when he is crap talking here and there ah???

Posted by davesingh > 2013-01-07 10:05 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz get this into your head OK.. this site is for all.. not people like you and kcloh OK... GET IT????

Posted by davesingh > 2013-01-07 10:06 | Report Abuse

well at least your KFIMA has gone up abit after months off crap talking about it..happy for you.. such a gentleman you are you deserve it...

Posted by davesingh > 2013-01-07 10:07 | Report Abuse

you better take profit on your KFIMA because its headed south....LOL...

Posted by davesingh > 2013-01-07 10:07 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz i guess birds of a feature flock together

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-07 10:08 | Report Abuse

ok lets close shop.

Posted by davesingh > 2013-01-07 10:09 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz i have been observing your analysis... and you know what??? crap.. but at least your analysis for kfima came true after months... LOL

Posted by davesingh > 2013-01-07 10:10 | Report Abuse

you decide what you want to know kcchongnz i stop giving advice long ago here .. just he to listen now... after all you spoke to me right??? made a comment... bias as it was...

Posted by davesingh > 2013-01-07 10:11 | Report Abuse

no no you and kcloh stay here and talk more.. i like to read what you all write... i love it.. makes me laugh....