Every year at the beginning of the year, investment banks would recommend some stocks which they think would out-perform the market. Maybank, Public Bank, CIMB, TM, Tenaga, Digi, Axiata, Sime, AirAsia etc, the same ones are always on the lists. Nothing wrong with the recommendations as most of them would do well I believe. But the problems of these recommendations are:
1. Almost every investment bank is recommending the same companies, is there any chance that they would earn extra-ordinary return as everyone is chasing the same stocks?
2. Nearly all funds, local or foreign own them because of the liquidity which is good. But if every fund has to own them, won’t the price been chased up long ago to its intrinsic value?
3. Is there any conflict of interest with the investment banks who have funds holding these stocks, or have business dealing with the companies recommending these stocks?
4. Most companies recommended are big capitalized companies. What is the potential of high growth in order to achieve high return in the future?
5. These stocks are well known by everybody in the market, the institutions and retail players. What is the chance that they are selling at bargain price, and hence the chance of high return?
Do you have any hidden gem which is tucked in some where undiscovered, unloved and institutional investors have no mandate or interest to buy them for the time being, and selling at bargain price. The chance to earn 50% return a year, a double bagger, five baggers or even ten baggers. An ugly duckling which would turn to a beautiful swan in the near future? Which one and why?
I will start with the first one, Kumpulan Fima. Kfima has a few good business, security printing, palm oil plantation, bulking, food and others. Its revenue and profit attributed to shareholders has been growing at a CAGR of 10% and 27% respectively for the last 10 years. It is believed that the business will continue to grow albeit at a slower pace. For the financial year ended 31 March 2012, its revenue and net profit amounts to 470.8 m and 80.9 m respectively. Earnings per share amounts to 30.5 sen. It has a healthy balance sheet with NAB and excess cash per share of RM2.13 and 99 sen respectively as at 30th September 2012. It gives 8 sen dividend last year which amount to a dividend yield of 4.2%, higher than the bank fixed deposit. If we give a PE ratio of 10 to Kfima, its ordinary business would be worth RM3.05 per share. Including the excess cash of 99 sen the intrinsic value of Kfima should be RM4.04. As Kfima is trading at RM1.90, the margin of safety of investing in this company is huge at 47%! I don’t see any problem with the management as they have been creating value for its shareholders all these years. Oh yeah, I am not promoting the stock here although Kfima forms a big proportion of my portfolio. I know I have been talking about it very often in i3investor. It is because of the conviction I have in this company. Besides sharing is caring, isn’t it? Hehe.
iafx Kfima is a good company but i agree with you there is no liquidity...its a small cap with potential to go up... low volume is characteristic of small cap companies and there is where the most money is to be made...but dont but it for too long and also dont think its going up immediately...
small cap with decent div will get small long term investors attention to buy & keep - this is the potential but on the other hand, once goes down (due to broader market or whatsoever), it will dive for a long long long time - especially if the div does not keep up. its stock price only started to raise since 09'09
note since 1996, kfima only resumed its div payout since 2005 (0.02c)
data on paper looks good, but don't bet everything on it. there is enough example of such BS, especially statement like "I thing..." "I believe...", all this is promoter language.
iafx, thanks million times of your comments. Do you have anything to share? Please please please show us. We are dying waiting for your recommendations.
iafx... sorry to say .. this is a public forum for ideas and thoughts for anyone wanting to share.. i think and i believe is english for people who think and have thoughts that they believe in.. We dont represent any institution and we are not paid.. please remember that is why we say i think and i believe.. also... please look up examples of counters similar to this ...... they were all once small, very cheap and did not pay much dividend if any...
no need waste time explaining la, just look at his/her posting history, what counter he/she commenting , then you will know what kind of person he/she is.
there is a million reasons of saying "I xxx ...", juz remember market never follow that personal ego, but it's good to have faith, market needs faith too, sometimes.
there is nothing in the comment said cannot do "I xxx ...", no worry, it's just an opposite view - example, liquitity on one hand is good, on the other can be really bad.
of cos, there are almost 500+- at least, everyday, has no trading in klci, u bet there is a lot of gems like this. Again, there is nothing in the comment suggest gem is bad or so, ya...juz a different view, that's all.
One gem here, icap. At 2.36, it is selling at 19.2% discount to its NAV of 2.92. The hope is that a raider comes in, I don't care WTF, sell all the stocks and liquidate the company and distribute all the money. Close shop. Straight away 19% profit instantly, twice that you can get from the historic return of Bursa in a year. Hei, whose interest you are talking about? Mine of the fund manager's? Killing the goose which lay the golden eggs? No way else to get good return? Anybody?
What about NAIM (5073), own >30% of Dayang share, with cash and > 2000 acres of landbank in Sarawak plus lot of construction works in hand. If you guys free, can have a look.
Landmrk also is another hidden gem for me. Once Treasure Bay in Bintan Island operate, the EPS will increase. With NTA more than RM3.50, RM1 is really a good price. Genting hold more than 30% in this share.
The catalyst for landmark is that Treasury Bay. Don't know when that thingy going to execute. NTA has no meaning if that thingy not going to be done. If it is carried out, could be a multi-bagger for landmark in the long term.
Naim, anybody give some comments. I have never looked at it before. Taib's counter? Don't like it if it is.
For Landmark, refurbishment work at The Andaman, Langkawi to be completed soon; Phase 1 Treasure Bay to open in 2013. Earnings irrelevant for now. But, the earning will increase next year if everything is in place. BTW, this is not a fast moving counter, you have to wait it to bear fruit. The fruit shall be harvested in year 2013 after 4 years long waiting time. FACB, MBSB, cold eyes recommended in Nanyang, price is no longer cheap in my opinion.
Johore Tin is doing very well after the acquisition of Abel Dairies. Most corporate acquisitions are value destroyers, but for Johore Tin's acquisition of Able Dairies is a rare exception. Margins actually improved and operation efficiencies jumped by leaps and bounds. If you do a discount cash flows analysis, you will see that the present price of RM1.75 provides a high margin of safety.
I think if you buy the share at the low price and wait, you will ultimately earn money, cold eyes introduce ASAS, Kfima, DKSH, TDM, HuaYang, FACB, Plenitude and Zhulian, mostly provide positive earning if you buy few years back, don't buy when the price is up. We need to think whether the price is right when we buy the share. Just use the method and prinsip, I guess we can earn slow but steady money! =)
Pantech? Sure. It was flying high with its good operation efficiencies in 2009 and 2010 when ROIC was 20%, and an adjusted share price of above RM1.00. It then embarked on huge capital expenses in its new manufacturing plant in Pasir Gudang and margin and ROIC contracted by huge amount, probably because of the expenses on the high new plant. There is clear signs that revenue and profits are improving steadily for the last few quarters. If it can revert back to its old day of revenue, profitability and efficiencies, this stock can explode. The market price of 69 sen (ttm Pe of 7.2 and TEV/Ebit 0f 6.3) is undemanding considering its potential growth. No issue in its balance sheet. Cash flows not too good last year mainly because the capital expenses but I am sure it is improving. Still give good dividend yield.
alexliaw, thanks for the information. I thought Fitters is good too but haven't analysed it before. Could you elaborate and if possible, with some numbers and its business moat, management efficiencies etc? Or somebody else?
Use to be a speculative shares, but now with the change of management, they are more prudent company.
MHC management team has taken over since 2005 if I'm not mistaken. And Cepat do have its sunshine days especially in 2008-2011 when the eps and profit increase double fold every year.
With the fear and bad news in palm oil, it represent an opportunity to buy into this palm oil company. One of the most difficult thing to do is to identify good and undervalue company. Then after you have identify it, are you discipline enough to continuously buy and keep this counter for long run? I experienced it first hand as recent as yesterday. I sold half of my PPB seeing it going up. I have collected it during its recent deep.
thheavy,scomi,sealink...all oil n gas related counter with good order book, making money,strong cash flow and strong mgmt team. Gem bcoz i have made money with all these stocks in 2012 and will continue for 2013. I am not a fa or ta guy...more of talking to their finance and marketing guy type of investors
kingkong, thanks you for the recommendations. At least we have some potential counters here. For those who are interested, I suggest you read more about them. Study their annual reports etc before making an informed decision. I always advocate doing your homework before action. Hey you are putting your money at risk man. Btw, all equity investments are risky. The risk of losing money or return not as expected. Just hope that if you have done your homework, bought the good shares recommended, then share what you know with us. I will look at them someday.
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-04 07:26 | Report Abuse
Every year at the beginning of the year, investment banks would recommend some stocks which they think would out-perform the market. Maybank, Public Bank, CIMB, TM, Tenaga, Digi, Axiata, Sime, AirAsia etc, the same ones are always on the lists. Nothing wrong with the recommendations as most of them would do well I believe. But the problems of these recommendations are: 1. Almost every investment bank is recommending the same companies, is there any chance that they would earn extra-ordinary return as everyone is chasing the same stocks? 2. Nearly all funds, local or foreign own them because of the liquidity which is good. But if every fund has to own them, won’t the price been chased up long ago to its intrinsic value? 3. Is there any conflict of interest with the investment banks who have funds holding these stocks, or have business dealing with the companies recommending these stocks? 4. Most companies recommended are big capitalized companies. What is the potential of high growth in order to achieve high return in the future? 5. These stocks are well known by everybody in the market, the institutions and retail players. What is the chance that they are selling at bargain price, and hence the chance of high return? Do you have any hidden gem which is tucked in some where undiscovered, unloved and institutional investors have no mandate or interest to buy them for the time being, and selling at bargain price. The chance to earn 50% return a year, a double bagger, five baggers or even ten baggers. An ugly duckling which would turn to a beautiful swan in the near future? Which one and why?