Mabel

Absolutely JR!

Haha the headlines in America pointed to concerns over a slowing economy and worries about a recession.

But Mabel think talk of a recession is wildly premature. Based on previous Presidential Election, August and September are a bearish months.

First, the decline that we're seeing is not that unusual. Stocks typically pull back roughly -5% on average of 3-4 times per year, and have a correction of about -10% on average of once a year.

A 'pullback' is defined as a decline between -5% and -9.99%. And a 'correction' is a decline between -10% and -19.99%.

From their recent high close just a few weeks ago, to their worst intraday levels on Monday, August 5th, the Dow pulled back by -6.55%, the S&P 500 pulled back by -9.67%, the Nasdaq corrected by -15.76%, the small-cap Russell 2000 corrected by -11.95%, and the mid-cap S&P 400 pulled back by -9.79%.

As painful as pullbacks and corrections are, they are very common. Every bull market has them. And if you know these are commonplace moves, you can instead look at them as opportunities to buy rather than places to sell. This is the approach that Mabel has adopted.

As for a recession, it's difficult to make a case for a recession when the labor market and economy are still so strong. Granted, last week's jobs numbers were weaker than expected. But this is also what the Fed has been wanting to see -- that and slowing inflation, in order to cut rates, which now looks like there's a good chance of it happening in September, when they next meet (if not sooner).

But the labor market is still adding jobs at a healthy pace. And the recent 4.3% unemployment rate is still historically low.

Moreover, Q2's GDP came in above expectations at 2.8%. And Q3's GDP is forecast at 2.5%. Again, it's hard to make a case for a recession, which typically means two quarters in a row of negative GDP, when the GDP is up and outpacing expectations.

Additionally, corporate earnings and sales are trending higher with Q3 earnings growth estimated at 5.5% and sales at 4.8%; Q4 earnings at 11.7% and sales at 5.4%; and Q1'25 earnings at 13.2% and sales at 5.5%.

None of this even remotely spells recession.

So, Mabel think we are simply going thru a typical pullback and correction.

Again, it's not fun while it's happening.

But these are usually pauses that refresh. And savvy investors should be on the lookout for places to buy, before the next leg up.

To Our Success !

Meow

2 weeks ago

abidinaa

TQ auntie Boliow de Ibelis. I don't know whether to smile or to laugh. Maybe I put the grinning in my face. I'll tell uncle TF to assist My-airline. Don't worry. Everything will be alright.

2 weeks ago

abidinaa

Ringgit to strengthen to 4.3. Thank God

2 weeks ago

Pandu1

How much is 1 dollar to 1 MYR?
4.4725 MYR
1 USD = 4.4725 MYR Aug 06, 2024 05:55 UTC

The currency converter below is easy to use and the currency rates are updated frequently.

2 weeks ago

paulthesotong

Brent ...Usd76.

2 weeks ago

Pandu1

Thank god. At last our Rm is appreciating. Hopefully the price of goods and services will become cheaper.

2 weeks ago

Pandu1

What goes up must come down"

2 weeks ago

Pandu1

Today i checked lazada, the car tyres price is getting cheaper.

2 weeks ago

Pandu1

Everything will be cheaper in Malaysia as times goes by.

2 weeks ago

Mabel

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/scoot-to-launch-flights-to-kertajati-in-indonesia-and-melaka-in-malaysia-on-new-embraer-jets?utm_campaign=ST_Newsletter_AM

Meanwhile Singapore Airlines Budget airline Scoot will take off to Kertajati in Indonesia from September and Melaka in Malaysia from October on its new Embraer regional jets.

It will fly the Embraer E190-E2 planes to Kertajati twice a week from Sept 28, and to Melaka five times each week from Oct 23, Scoot said in a statement on Aug 6.

2 weeks ago

Pandu1

Husein airport flights diverted to Kertajati for safety reasons, says minister

This article was published in thejakartapost.com with the title "". Click to read: https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2023/11/01/husein-airport-flights-diverted-to-kertajati-for-safety-reasons-says-minister.html.

2 weeks ago

Pandu1

Husein airport flights diverted to Kertajati for safety reasons, says minister

This article was published in thejakartapost.com with the title "". Click to read: https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2023/11/01/husein-airport-flights-diverted-to-kertajati-for-safety-reasons-says-minister.html.

2 weeks ago

Pandu1

Kertajati Airport replaced Bandung Airport for safety reasons. The new airport able to accommodate large aircrafts like B777.

2 weeks ago

Pandu1

Bandung Airport is too near to the city centre.

2 weeks ago

Mabel

Wah.......

Capital A so power today...

Thank you Uncle Sslee and Balian...

Some Nice Uncles and Aunties matched Mabel queue at 73 sen this week...

So nice...

Meow Meow Meow

2 weeks ago

abidinaa

Today I am smiling from ear to ear. Tq again n again Uncle sot sor ler & and untie de Ibelis. Waiting for another short penis, oops, I mean short player to take position.

2 weeks ago

DickyMe

Stand down. Dark clouds hovering.

1 week ago

Sslee

PT AirAsia Indonesia Tbk reported another lose making quarter.
So what do you expect for capA?

1 week ago

abidinaa

So epi today. Tq SotSotLer. How is ur pexxs today? Get shorter again?

1 week ago

Sslee

AAV Q2 result.

MAINTAINED GENERATING CORE PROFIT OF 310 MTHB
Weakened Baht still resulted in FX loss of (226) MTHB, mostly unrealised

1 week ago

Sslee

2Q2024 was at the tail end of Thailand’s tourism season but AAV was able to maintain a satisfactory performance, achieving a revenue of Baht 11,485 million, up 14 percent YoY. EBITDA in the quarter was Baht 1,909 million, up 5 percent from the corresponding period last year. Due to exchange rate fluctuations in 2Q2024, the Company experienced a FX loss of Baht (226) million but was nonetheless able to report a net profit of Baht 84 million that was mainly supported by improving operational performance.

1 week ago

AnthonyAng666

That hat 😆

https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/capital-a-ceo-tony-fernandes-honoured-with-sabah-tourism-appreciation-award-for-transformative-contribution-to-the-state#gsc.tab=0

1 week ago

The_JQuestion

ringgit is so bullish ...... i reckon it will reach 4.2 or even below at the END of the year. noone foresee it that good , good for cap A and its plans together with AAX. HOLD , good times and amazing FUTURE is coming !!

1 week ago

abidinaa

Ringgit is the best performer against USD. The Fed on the other hand has got to lower the interest rate to avoid recession. Even TAA & TAAX also profitable so you can close one eye. AAX and CapA sure profitable one.

1 week ago

The_JQuestion

aax paying 1.3 for 0.76 stocks. tony bought at 0.80. So cheap still dreamin ,, if u old and sot sot then just watch and make jokes.
Real money to be earned kekeke , tony desperately wants cap A out. he wants to unlock the potential , some of it already shown . meanwhile , enjoy our toxic announcer relay :))

1 week ago

Sslee

AAX had proposed to acquire the aviation business for RM6.8 billion. It planned to issue new shares worth RM3 billion — 2.31 billion shares at RM1.30 each — to acquire AAAGL. As for AAB, AAX proposed to acquire it for RM3.8 billion, to be satisfied by assuming RM3.8 billion of some RM3.83 billion worth of debt that Capital A owed AAB.

So with AAAGL debts/liabilities to AAX and CapA RM 3.8 billion debts/liabilities to AAX. Then capA will be debts free and out of PN17.
The only problem is AAX will fall into PN17 by all the debts/liabilities tranfered from capA to AAX.

Hence will Bursa SC approve such deal?

1 week ago

abidinaa

Hahaha. Balck Queer guy, another die hard supporter of My-Airlines. Die die want to condemn Capital A. Still cant accept the truth that My- Airline is dead and kapoot.Your beloved airlines is ordered to pay 17 million to MAHB for scam. While Capital A is doing 3281 flights a week. We don't want your money. Use you money to operate your dieing Gay Bar. Hahaha. Together with Sot sor Lanc and de Ibelis.

1 week ago

abidinaa

Where is that BlackQueer dude? He deleted all his comments. What's the matter? Can't find anyone to date you? Hahaha.

6 days ago

AnthonyAng666

Capital A got chance to turn green in q2

5 days ago

Mabel

The_JQuestion ringgit is so bullish ...... i reckon it will reach 4.2 or even below at the END of the year. noone foresee it that good , good for cap A and its plans together with AAX. HOLD , good times and amazing FUTURE is coming !!
15/08/2024 5:18 PM

Yes Sir!!!

Now you know why our Capital A soooo steady..

The Malaysian Ringgit (RM) has been performing well against the US Dollar (USD) recently. Over the past month, it has appreciated by 6.2% against the USD and has recovered 7.79% from its low earlier this year.

If the Federal Reserve decides to lower interest rates in September, it could potentially weaken the USD, making the RM stronger in comparison. Lower interest rates in the US typically lead to a weaker dollar because investors might seek higher returns elsewhere, including in emerging markets like Malaysia. This could further boost the RM’s performance.

With the GDP Forecast being revised upward, we will get there..

To Our Success !

Meow Meow Meow

5 days ago

The_JQuestion

QR week .... cards will be revealed very soon , stay tune !! interest already in , now bankers turn

5 days ago

JrWarren

Same AAX strategy, there is a regularization plan but not submitted to Bursa.
When CAP A generated 2 quarters profit and reversal of negative networth (upon completion of corporate exercise), Tony will straight away apply to quit PN17.
The business environment is dynamic, if regularization plan submitted, CAP A is forced to follow the plan and timeline despite the macro environment change (AA / AAX Thailand is forced to follow the regularization plan that submitted to Thailand authority).
So it is better to reveal to the regularization plan to public and Bursa , but not submitted to Bursa. Then apply for PN17 extension along the way and show Bursa there is a progress to actually improve the company overall financial position & operation efficiency.

3 days ago

The_JQuestion

USD may hit 4.10 at end of Q4 , that is 15% diff from q1 .... Profit for AAX and cap A will jump significantly , not only that , aviaiton fuel is also CHEAPER by 30 dollars , from 122 to 88 of now a discount of 28 % as at q3..... ur thoughts mr Calculator?

3 days ago

paulthesotong

brent below usd 76,air airfares steady, cut in int rates, full planes,drop in usd.

2 days ago

Mabel

Wah....

80 sen oledi..

Must be Good QR!!!

2 days ago

abidinaa

I'm soooo epi today. Tq SotSotLanc, BlackQueer Dude n de Ibelis. 600k @ .795. I hope not too early. Waiting for short penxs gang to press down again. But with Ringgit appreciating, fuel price down and My-Airlines went bust and kapoot may be bit difficult to go down. Just wait and see.

2 days ago

abidinaa

People lost trust with MAS with having their flights diverted due technical failure. So many happened this year. Why?Why? I tell you why. So many good engineers and crews joined AAX. What's left are incompetent staff and crews. So much with debt free airlines. In reality it is draining too much needed taxpayers money.

2 days ago

paulthesotong

money for nothing..

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/723812

2 days ago

AnthonyAng666

Tomorrow flying through 80 cents 😁

2 days ago

Sslee

Are you kidding money for nothing?
Can money just fall from sky.

Know what is revenue bond?

Page 40 of Financial Report 2023: Funding
The Group is currently engaging in discussion with lenders at different stages for debt and equity fundraising, with an estimated amount of RM3 billion. As at the date of this report, the Group has received commitment from investors for a Revenue Bond Program of up to USD365 million (equivalent to RM1.68 billion)

The Revenue Bond program entails the conversion of outstanding lease payments of USD240 million (approximately RM1.1 billion) into bond (Tranche 1) and cash inflow of approximately USD125 million (approximately RM575 million) (Tranche 2) to finance working capital, maintenance cost and lease rentals. The revenue bond willbe secured against passenger seat sales from identified routes and shares in a subsidiary. Tranche 1 of the Revenue Bond has a tenure of 2.5 years whereas Tranche 2 has tenure of 4 years. The bond is expected to be issued by mid of 2024.

2 days ago

Sslee

External Auditors if FYE 2022 Management cash flow forecast is far off the mark as per actual achieved then as at 31 December 2023, the group current liabilities exceed its current assets by RM12,699 million. Are Auditors satisfied and confident with management's cash flow forecast for year 2024 that the group will not default on the net current liabilities of RM12,699 million?

We have assessed the reasonableness of the cash flow projection provided bythe management (Note 2.1). The going concern of the Group is dependent on the following:
1. Successful implementation of a Revenue Bond program; and
2. Continuous support from Group's lessors.

2 days ago

abidinaa

SotSotLanc, I'm not sure if your penxs has got so short now that you can't even think straight. There's no morxn left in this forum to read your mumble jumble. Anyway, thanks. You made me pocket 42g in less than 3 weeks

1 day ago

Sslee

As at 31/12/2023 capitalA is an insolvent or bankrupt company as the 2024 cashflow projection by management cannot cover the payment of current lease liabilities and current trade and other payables.
The survival of capitalA depend on
1. Successful implementation of a Revenue Bond program; and
2. Continuous support from Group's lessors

This is the word of auditor and not mine
We have assessed the reasonableness of the cash flow projection provided by the management (Note 2.1). The going concern of the Group is dependent on the following:
1. Successful implementation of a Revenue Bond program; and
2. Continuous support from Group's lessors

1 day ago

Mabel

Wah....

80 sen oledi..

Must be Good QR!!!

1 day ago

Mabel

Cum to Air Asia..

Everyone can fly

Today Mabel Singapore Airlines climb 0.81% while Mabel Capital A climbs 0.63%...

PETALING JAYA: Several recent Malaysia Airlines (MAS) flights affected by technical issues have angered passengers and raised calls for clear contingency and emergency plans to be put in place.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2024/08/23/have-proper-backup-plan-mas-told?utm_source=Smartech&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailynewsalert&utm_content=20240823&__sta=vhg.uosvpxQddhqne.jsu0sv%7CIFFUJVQ&__stm_medium=email&__stm_source=smartech

1 day ago

Mabel

Capital A has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, returning to core profitability in the first quarter of 2024 after more than four years of continuous losses. Despite reporting a headline net loss of RM91.55 million for 1QFY2024, the core net profit, excluding one-off items, was RM66.5 million. Bloomberg consensus projects a headline net profit of RM528.4 million for the full year 2024, a positive outlook compared to the RM837 million loss in FY2023.

The airline’s profitability has alleviated some concerns, although its debt remains a significant issue. The company is now generating enough cash to gradually pay down its debt. Analysts like Yin from Maybank IB emphasize the importance of maintaining discipline in capacity management to avoid market saturation and fare cuts. The exit of MYAirline Sdn Bhd has also helped control the market, preventing an oversupply of seats.

Capital A is working towards completing the sale of its aviation assets to AirAsia X by December, which is expected to significantly improve its financial position. The merger of Capital A’s short-haul airlines with AirAsia X is seen as a strategic move to convince shareholders of the company’s long-term viability. Additionally, AirAsia Group has been expanding its network and fleet modestly, focusing on sustainable growth rather than aggressive expansion, which has been well-received by analysts.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/722581

1 day ago

Sslee

If the company is now generating enough cash to gradually pay down its debt then why need debt fundraising?

Page 40 of Financial Report 2023: Funding
The Group is currently engaging in discussion with lenders at different stages for debt and equity fundraising, with an estimated amount of RM3 billion. As at the date of this report, the Group has received commitment from investors for a Revenue Bond Program of up to USD365 million (equivalent to RM1.68 billion)

1 day ago

Sslee

Q1 end 31/3/2024
RM '000
Cash flow from financing activities
Proceeds from borrowings 351,371
Repayment of borrowings (58,914)

So Q1 2024 did the company pay down its borrowing or borrow more money?

1 day ago

paulthesotong

The time has come......
Investors are waiting for the EGM of the merge of Airasia and AAX.!
....

12 hours ago

paulthesotong

Brent down 76-79,airfares uptrend,drop in US interest rates n USD, 90% planes loaded, increase capacities, airports crowded,tourists are coming! Wishing Well....

11 hours ago