Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-08-30 16:53 | Report Abuse

Harta has broken its support line >5 years ..technical analysis wise it’s really not looking good because most of the retailers are trapped, the only people who are still in the green are those who bought in the early years after IPO and institutions themselves.

Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-08-30 16:54 | Report Abuse

If institutional investors themselves are dumping the shares, you bet there is a lot more for share price to fall, I’m afraid.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-08-30 16:59 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-08-30 17:01 | Report Abuse

Dont try to create panic lah aiyo WTF 0.10...

I think at worst 0.50+

Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-08-30 17:07 | Report Abuse

Personally I don’t think it will go down to rm0.50 la..but who knows right..back when it was rm5 everyone was saying they gonna all-in if it goes to rm4..then when it broke below 4 everyone didn’t dare to jump in lol (they shouldn’t too)

For now..I guess it may go down to rm1.30-1.40..

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-08-30 17:10 | Report Abuse

To be frank, nobody (including Philip n myself) expect Harta's price to drop 70% fm its pre covid 19 prices (ard Rm5+) to the current 1.60+.....

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-08-30 17:12 | Report Abuse

What if Harta started to post losses in the coming Qs? Or even worse, years?

JPM said 6 years to turnaround....

Harta Kuans said 2 years.....

Philip said I hold tight tight for 5 to 10 years never scare....U think Harta will close shop meh???

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-08-30 17:17 | Report Abuse

The company has a dead business
dead business is not a growth business
company is NOT able to expand.
every day will be a daily struggle to just to survive
no budget for R&D
no budget for new products
no budget for ESOS
no budget for Bonus
no money for share buyback
no money to buy cutting edge equipment
no money for maintenance
no money for advertising
no money for marketing
no budget for Top personnel from best scientific and business schools
only have budget to hire monkeys to work

working monkeys will result in
errors,
omissions,
mistakes
incompetence
quality issues
not knowing the job
lack of initiative
and
anything that can go wrong will go wrong

company takes a loan

and the rest is monkeystory
=> its downhill from here on, inability to repay will mean bankruptcy later

Valuation => RM0.10 per share.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-08-30 17:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-08-30 18:00 | Report Abuse

Bought 500k harta @1.59 average

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-08-30 18:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-08-30 18:18 | Report Abuse

Possible? Anything is possible. Probable? Highly unlikely. And why is that so? Hartalega net assets is 1.49. meaning at that price you are buying purely the business. And from that roughly 50 cents is cash. Meaning if harta drop to 50 cents, you can do a Manchester united glazer and LBO your way into using the cash in the company to pay all the shareholders and still keep the business assets. Do you think that is likely? It has happened before, but the 50% owner is not going to take that lying down.

>>>>>>>
Philip do u expert price of Harta to drop another 70% fm the current RM1.60 to Rm0.50 in near future?

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-08-30 18:27 | Report Abuse

If only there is no fierce price competition resulting to Q losses or year losses in coming years....

If that happens, no more div n their cash reserves will be burned

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-08-30 18:29 | Report Abuse

Losses are guaranteed

all Malaysian Gloves are now calculating Burn Rate
Harta already confirmed only have 2 years burn rate? ... ... thats why 2 years ????? hahahahahahahaha

Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-08-30 18:30 | Report Abuse

@philip You can look at it from that valuation point of view, taking into account its cash and other assets per share etc, but you forget stock market is about forward projection of a business outlook. The glove industry outlook has changed for the worse as I mentioned earlier. By your logic, companies like ORIENT,HAI-O should be worth much more, but why does the market give them low valuation? Be it NAPS, PB ratio or any of the usual valuation metrics, they are undervalued, but yet the share price just doesn’t move. Why? Because all these businesses have poor business future outlook. Essentially, they’re just tonnes of assets that don’t yield productivity. Not all stocks make a come back.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-08-30 18:41 | Report Abuse

Yes and there is reason why I don't invest in those companies, including insas etc which seem very very undervalued. Because if you look at my portfolio, you will quickly notice that almost all of those companies produce locally ( in the ever dropping myr), but sells internationally ( in USD).

That is the very basis of growth companies in bursa. The ability to compete internationally.

Yinson is 85% international business in USD.
QL exports frozen fish and surimi and palm oil overseas.
Pchem fertilizer and chemicals feed the entire south east Asia region, the fastest growing population today.
Hartalega invented nitrile gloves.

So you see the big difference between orient and hai-o is a very simple question. Are they competitive internationally? Orient sells Honda brand bikes. Hai-o is repackaging and selling overpriced Chinese goods.

So no, I never forgot about forward projection of business outlook at all. In fact, it is the first thing I look for ( TAM).

Glove industry outlook is now exactly what is reflected by the market. But how is the price today reflective of what will happen 3 years from now?

>>>>>>>
Maxpowar

@philip You can look at it from that valuation point of view, taking into account its cash and other assets per share etc, but you forget stock

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-08-30 18:51 | Report Abuse

For those who are not around investing in 2009 when I first bought topglove during the craze. Here is a historical chronology.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/glovemakers-soar-h1n1-threat
2009 - outbreak
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/flu-pandemic-amresearch-maintains-buy-top-glove-kossan

2010 - downgrade
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/bursa99/2010-09-21-story-h1568997-OSK_Research_downgrades_glove_sector_to_Neutral

Big drop in 2011
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2011/09/13/glove-makers-share-prices-drop

So you see. The same stories repeat over and over by the same analysts of fear and greed. Imagine if I had listened, bought in 2009, made money, lost money in 2011 sold and walked away forever. I would have lost that 10x gain over the decade.

So the answer is still the same: BUY what you understand. And start with trying to figure out how the business will work out over the next ten years and how much you are paying for it.

Posted by arv18 > 2022-08-30 19:02 | Report Abuse

Ah! First it's buying millions using margin - then its LONG TERM investing!

Wow!

All kinds of Talking Kok!

Why not 1987 or 1999 you old clown.

________________________
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Aug 30, 2022 6:51 PM | Report Abuse

For those who are not around investing in 2009 when I first bought topglove during the craze. Here is a historical chronology.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-08-30 19:03 | Report Abuse

the problem with being a Eat Sleep & Diu Guy is that they are always blur blur

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-08-30 19:05 | Report Abuse

The future is already known except to Eat Sleep & Diu Guy

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-08-30 19:08 | Report Abuse

https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/gloves-other-than-surgical-of-rubber

For those who actually want to understand TAM and supply demand curves

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-08-30 19:09 | Report Abuse

01/01/2023 Govt will increase labour costs by another 10% plus plus plus

according to Eat Sleep & Diu Guy this is good for business

kakakakakakakakakaka

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-08-30 19:09 | Report Abuse

01/01/2023 EU will enforce sanctions on Russia. Malaysian Gloves costs will go up 20% plus plus.

China Gloves costs will come down -20% minus minus coz Russia will dump oil to China at cheaper price.

Total cost differential might exceed 50% between Dead Factories in Malaysia vs Country

=> Never fight with countries
the problem with being a Eat Sleep & Diu Guy is that they are always blur blur

Posted by arv18 > 2022-08-30 19:11 | Report Abuse

Are people so s-tupid as not to understand what gloves is?

What has understanding got to do with risk management?

Don't bother to think, just mindlessly repeat "buy what you understand", like a condescending clown as if it is something novel or clever. Hahahahaha!

Sign of high intellect!

______________________

BUY what you understand.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-08-30 19:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by arv18 > 2022-08-30 19:22 | Report Abuse

If you want to lose money on Gloves that is your business.

We can all laugh at you as you twist yourself into a pretzel trying to justify yourself.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-08-30 19:28 | Report Abuse

the point is that the 01/01/2023 EU sanctions are already approved long ago.
EU position against Russia had hardened since June 2022 then.
as such sanctions can only become worse and not reduced

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-08-30 19:41 | Report Abuse

sidenote

syndicate wants to be first,
they started move on Armada in advance to get ready for 01/01/2023 Russian sanctions

My personal opinion ...
Armada
bear in mind its 4 months to 01/01/2023, its too long to rise yet

except for .....
for Malaysian Gloves its starting to move lower now as "someone" blinked and shivered coz 01/01/2023 and started dumping in earnest.
Kiasu Kiasi want to be first mah!!!
so "others" no choice also started to dump all Malaysian Gloves

its a landslide now for Malaysian Gloves until 01/01/2023
dun get involved

post 01/01/2023 its bankruptcy for all Malaysian Gloves, the 50% cost difference is just too big to survive

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-08-30 20:01 | Report Abuse

Philip ( buy what you understand) For those who are not around investing in 2009 when I first bought topglove during the craze. Here is a historical chronology.

What was China's mkt share 10 years ago?

What is China's mkt share now?

What will be China's mkt share 10 years later?

Stock mkt is always fwd looking......

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-08-30 20:07 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-08-30 20:32 | Report Abuse

illustration of 50% cost difference

Malaysian Gloves ASP ===101
Malaysian Gloves Cost ===100 <= Malaysia buys Expensive Brent/Tapis
Malaysian Gross Profit === 1

China Gloves ASP === 90
China Gloves Cost === 50 <= Russia dumps oil to China Veli Cheap [sanctions mah]
China Gross Profit === 40


so who survives and who goes bankrupt?
what happens when China Gloves Drops ASP to 51 ?????

Posted by PureBULL ... > 2022-09-02 10:33 | Report Abuse

Stock: [PETRONM]: PETRON MALAYSIA REFINING & MARKETING BHD
Aug 30, 2022 4:49 PM | Report Abuse

Program selling takes over when prices dropped below the floor levels i.e.

hy < 534
petronm < 538

BE FEARFUL 1st, on preparation mode to safety.,.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/WxEqwzK0/
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

the FIGHTING is going ON.,.

IF able to pierce thru the ceiling level = ho.say.leow i.e.

hy > 562
petronm > 557

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

as stock players on a long haul, we don't need to know so so much about stock FA.,.
hard working with long calculation of future QR PAT isn't required.
focus n do this to win BIG!

Price Chart can tell tomorrow news today.,.
I heard this decades ago. n this sounds bombastic.

we must await what signal the mkt would tell us.
the price action as indicated by Darvas Box = the mandatory law to obey:

above ceiling price = ho.say to hold for big gains
below floor price = boh.chow.see

Posted by Phoebe > 2022-09-02 16:17 | Report Abuse

Syabas has increase industrial water tariff about 20% on 1st August. Electricity cost sure adjusted after election. I wonder how much both of this will impact the production cost.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-02 17:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-09-05 12:18 | Report Abuse

Knowing what you know, you should know that harta invented nitrile gloves, double former machines, auto striping machinery, and many of the modern innovation used in modern glove industry today. In fact, they have already decided to stop the old machines which are product 8k and 30k gloves per hour and upgrade them to new machines which are producing 50k+ gloves per hour to improve efficiency. I don't know about the rest, but hartalega so called slave labor is very very small part of their operations.

But you know better la, Kan?
>>>>>>
Philip has not visited China factories with super duper automations , ai, robotic.....neither have I.....but I can imagine knowing what I know.....

Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-09-05 12:47 | Report Abuse

Did you attend their AGM?

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-05 13:30 | Report Abuse

Today can buy more at lower price again?

Posted by value_seeker > 2022-09-05 13:44 | Report Abuse

Low will become lower if market is guessing on the time needed to reach glove equilibrium. We need to know the net cash, cash burning rate, competitors' expansion and market demands. Break the barrier of RM1?

Posted by Windy1974 > 2022-09-05 15:15 | Report Abuse

well, just finished my kamikaze mission of defending Harta at 1.58

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-09-05 16:11 | Report Abuse

Better, I have the full notes sharing and discussion, q&a and slides from both intco and harta. It's in my group shared by the analysts you guys were laughing at.
>>>>>>

Maxpowar

Did you attend their AGM?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-09-05 16:14 | Report Abuse

Harta has already said they are not doing unprofitable business and are still selling at profit making ASP levels of 26-28 USD compared to intco and bluesail loss making 22-25. Let China burn cash all they want, harta has already said their strategy is sound, and they have more customers today than before pandemic who are giving them business. Let's wait and see over time if buying at 1.6 is a good idea

>>>>>>
value_seeker

Low will become lower if market is guessing on the time needed to reach glove equilibrium. We need to know the net cash, cash burning rate, competitors' expansion and market demands. Break the barrier of RM1?

2 hours ago

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-05 16:36 | Report Abuse

So can buy more ah?

Posted by Windy1974 > 2022-09-05 16:47 | Report Abuse

Ang mo countries consumed the most gloves. China companies will face trade difficulties in the foreseeable future as US tried to kill their competition. I have waited patiently for Huawei ban to be lifted. I have run out of time since my phone is getting slow. Huawei is good but US is smart. Give them credit. Let's not talk politic here.
We are comrade now Philip so i have to support you haha

Posted by Windy1974 > 2022-09-05 16:55 | Report Abuse

Ah Beng: Hello, Abu. Walau eh, Petrochemical now good good ah?
Abu: Was good good. Most ASPs have dropped 30% from peak.
Ah Beng: Ok, roger!!

Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-09-05 18:24 | Report Abuse

I’m surprised that someone who claims to be holding “5.5 mil” of shares did not attend their AGM but instead relied on someone else for “notes”.

Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-09-05 18:36 | Report Abuse

So called “analysts”. That’s a very shameless claim.
___________________________________________
Philip ( buy what you understand) Better, I have the full notes sharing and discussion, q&a and slides from both intco and harta. It's in my group shared by the analysts you guys were laughing at.
05/09/2022 4:11 PM

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-09-06 10:24 | Report Abuse

I'm surprised your surprised. I've owned public Bank shares for a long time and I've never been to a single AGM.

>>>>>
Maxpowar

I’m surprised that someone who claims to be holding “5.5 mil” of shares did not attend their AGM but instead relied on someone else for “notes”.

15 hours ago

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-09-06 10:26 | Report Abuse

More importantly I only attend AGMs where the information is not freely given or clear and I need to ask direct questions. So far hartalega management is very very transparent compared to many others in the market. Majority of necessary information is available. Tell me what do you gain by going to AGM if the business is a solid and straightforward company.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-06 11:14 | Report Abuse

Me,
I go to the AGM to met people, collect namecard, door gift , listen to management presentation, BOD give answers to on spot and send in advance questions, take selfie photo with boss, ask any insider information from boss and etc.

Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-09-06 11:30 | Report Abuse

Very telling about the authenticity of the portfolio, from the way you answer.