Posted by KClow > 2022-04-27 09:48 | Report Abuse

Buy and hold
You cant do that with sop taann hsplant n gang
You will go around in circles
Rm1 start end rm1
With utd you start rm1 end with rm10

Posted by KClow > 2022-04-27 09:49 | Report Abuse

Buy and hold
Is what i am doing

Posted by KClow > 2022-04-27 09:50 | Report Abuse

Everyone got own investment plan
Mine is buy and hold united plantations
Bad results even better got chance to buy
Lucky me

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-04-27 09:55 | Report Abuse

KClown, it’s up to you for what you do. Keep up to your denial mode .

Posted by KClow > 2022-04-27 09:59 | Report Abuse

Johnie boy
Its stock market buyers and sellers
If got no buyers share worth zero
Sure got buyers
I am that buyer
So sell your united plantations and i will buy
Why complain
If united plantations no buyer today its zero
So stop advicing too much
Go back to sop taann hsplant n gang

Posted by KClow > 2022-04-27 10:00 | Report Abuse

Jonhie boy
You should be glad got buyer for your united plantations shares you are selling
Why so much anger
Be happy

Posted by 1LegKick > 2022-04-27 10:08 | Report Abuse

UP is not suitable for those who have lacks of funds

Posted by Pinky > 2022-04-27 10:24 | Report Abuse

Nah see the market reaction just now

9.00 dumping - reaction by "sensitive" investors

Now - smart money buying back

Posted by ipodkaki > 2022-04-27 10:25 | Report Abuse

I am happy to see short term UP investors being flushed out.

Posted by Sardin > 2022-04-27 10:42 | Report Abuse

@Pinky, KClow and the rest:
I believe you have been very long with UTDPLT and I hope you're generous to help me understand one thing :-
If all the CPO and PK oil prouced in Jan-Mar 2022 were to be sold to external party at the price disclosed in the 2022 Q1 report, I don't think it could achieve RM 465,538 external sales under Refinery (page 7, note A8). I suspect the actual selling price is very much close to the actual market price. What do you think?

Posted by Sardin > 2022-04-27 10:44 | Report Abuse

But then why a much lower average selling price is disclosed? This puzzled me.

Posted by Traderjoes > 2022-04-27 10:45 | Report Abuse

current share price already takes into account their lower profit from forward contracts. let the weak investors sell out and create buying opportunities for the rest of us

Posted by Traderjoes > 2022-04-27 10:46 | Report Abuse

Read thru the report and yea it's not 100% perfect but if it was perfect, share price would be rm30.

Posted by Traderjoes > 2022-04-27 10:47 | Report Abuse

in a few years once Labour shortage resolved and cpo prices drop back to 2500-3000, you will see UP's true colours of being able to give the highest dividends and return on equity on bursa.

Posted by Sardin > 2022-04-27 10:47 | Report Abuse

I found a lot of interesting thing to discuss but let's go one by one that some of us here would not be confused.

Posted by Pinky > 2022-04-27 11:26 | Report Abuse

@Sardin I did not analyse to that detail

But according to my accounting knowledge...

Let me draw a scenario to illustrate the point

I sell Tiger beer big bottle
Spot price is RM17.00
But I took up forward contracts to sell at RM14.50
Total sold is 100 bottles

U will see my topline (Revenue) at RM1,700
Then at my expenses u will see realised hedging loss RM250
Gross profit: RM1,450

Posted by Pinky > 2022-04-27 11:27 | Report Abuse

Something like this la

Posted by Sardin > 2022-04-27 12:18 | Report Abuse

Thanks Pinky for your clear and detailed explanation. I've tried to calculate and estimate that 75% of forward sales expiring Jan-Jun contracted before 31st Dec 2021 had been fulfilled in Q1 2022. That imply ASP in Q2 2022 will be significantly higher than Q1. If this is true then I think I'm cautiously optimistic that whole year EPS could achieve somewhere around RM 1.80 if market price of CPO remains above RM 6,000 till year end. Hope that I'm correct.

Posted by Pinky > 2022-04-27 12:28 | Report Abuse

That is probably why Management dare to put this in writing ma...

"the Board of Directors expect that the results for the year will be satisfactory and better than in 2021."

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-04-27 14:29 | Report Abuse

@Sardin, The hedging loss in Q1 2022 are marking the outstanding forward hedges/contracts to the FCPO prices as at 31st March 2022. If the FCPO prices throughout the contract period remain unchaged, there will be no further gain/loss in hedging and UP will then realised the financial performance of future qtr based on prices as at 31st March 2022. If FCPO prices go higher than 31t March level, there will be further hedging loss for the portion of the hedge/contract that remain outstanding by 30/6/2022. If FCPO go below the 31st March level, there will be hedging gain.
As it stand now , current CPO/FCPO price level is about $700 higher than what it were on 31/3/2022. Also, the hedging impact also depend on what further forward contract the company takes on and the FCPO price development into the next 3 qtrs.
That's my simplistic explanation.

Posted by Sardin > 2022-04-27 15:03 | Report Abuse

@Johnzhang, what's your EPS prediction based on known information acquired from the recent annual report and Q1 report?

Posted by Sardin > 2022-04-27 15:03 | Report Abuse

Assuming no CPO price change after 31st Mar

Posted by joerakmo > 2022-04-27 15:13 | Report Abuse

Its difficult to reverse large forward sales contracts.Up should have started last year 2021!
Nevertheless it is a start and from quarterly report under derivatives there are now long and short contracts.Assuming UP is successful and ASP is Rm6000(less duties and taxes) 2Q22 EPS should come in approx 50-60 sen

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-04-27 15:29 | Report Abuse

Hi Sardin, may be let the KClown tell us his number first.

Posted by Sardin > 22 minutes ago | Report Abuse

@Johnzhang, what's your EPS prediction based on known information acquired from the recent annual report and Q1 report?

Posted by Pinky > 2022-04-27 15:38 | Report Abuse

At pages 8 & 9 of the QR:

"These hedging losses realised through buy backs of earlier sold BMD CPO futures will be reversed through higher contribution in the coming quarters in a similar manner as last year as the delivery of finished goods are sold at current market prices but produced with significantly lower raw material prices (CPO) purchased earlier in connection with UP’s forward sales."

"The current refinery results are not reflective of the underlying business and it is expected that the results of this segment for the full year will be better than 2021."

The "loss" that you see at current quarter results are all accounting mumbo jumbo. People who invest in UP typically invest because of their trust in the capability and integrity of its Management.

If you doubt the Management, by all means just sell la.

Posted by LossAversion > 2022-04-27 15:57 | Report Abuse

Well, if I have to sell UP, then I must get rid of other plantation stocks first. That is the degree of trust in UP.

Posted by Sardin > 2022-04-27 17:02 | Report Abuse

@Joerakmo, my guesstimate of Q2 profit is 54 sen based on all info visible to me. Some assumptions applied (e.g. production output is the same as last year, with some price forcast based on recent trend, forward contracts made visible to us, increased CPO & PK production cost, etc.).

Posted by Sardin > 2022-04-27 17:03 | Report Abuse

This 54 sen has not accounted for the reversion of "losses" in Q1.

Posted by Sardin > 2022-04-27 17:30 | Report Abuse

@Pinky, Q1 report explained late FG delivery is the reason that they need to pay the high price to meet the contract (although the late FG could be sold and compensate what had been paid, at later time). But the management did not explain the reason that has caused the late delivery and it looks like the delay was quite significant. I wondering whether or not this is due to long shipping time that has caused the delivery to be late (maybe for 6 weeks long). Or this is a norm since many years back and not just after the Covid years since 2020? This is an open question for all.

Posted by Sardin > 2022-04-27 17:35 | Report Abuse

@JJPTR, I think everybody hope UP is able to improve the elaboration in their report so that things can be understood clearly and easily by everyone. Help the investors to be able to see the intrinsic value of the company is a way they could "reward" the shareholders. I think we all deserve this.

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-04-27 17:37 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by dam82 > 2022-04-27 17:37 | Report Abuse

No need to overthink lor … if no confidence on management sell lor … their hedging policy will help deliver consistent return …good or bad times ….

Posted by ElijahYH > 2022-04-27 17:37 | Report Abuse

plantation heng heng ahh

Posted by ElijahYH > 2022-04-27 17:39 | Report Abuse

u think any plantation company can come this high like UP ?

Posted by Sardin > 2022-04-27 17:46 | Report Abuse

Following is an illustration that I draw based on my best knowledge:
Sell CPO to the big customer at BMD price (RM 3300 / MT) to lock in profit margin 3 months later
-->
Unable to catch up the time to produce the CPO scheduled to be sold at BMD price
-->
Buy CPO from market at current price (RM 6300 / MT) to fulfil the commitment, loss RM 3000 / MT.
-->(after 1.5 months)
Finally produced and delivered the CPO at later time at the cost of RM 1850 / MT.
-->(If at this time the market price remains at RM 6300 / MT)
Sell the CPO at RM 6300 M/T and realise profit of RM 6300 - RM 1850 = RM 4450 M/T
-->
Deducting the loss suffered earlier on, the net and final profit is RM 4450 - RM 3000 = RM 1450 / MT

Conclusion:
The final profit is the same as the planned profit of RM 1450 (RM 3300 - RM 1850)
Above is an ideal case when price remains unchanged at the time interval between the expiry of contract and actual delivery of the the FG.

Posted by Sardin > 2022-04-27 17:58 | Report Abuse

Thank you everyone for participating the discussion and help me to check my understanding.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-04-27 18:12 | Report Abuse

Will CPO hits RM8,000 soon?

Posted by joerakmo > 2022-04-27 18:42 | Report Abuse

July 22 soyoil Rm8166 now

Posted by KClow > 2022-04-27 18:52 | Report Abuse

Johnie boy
I got a suggestion
Stop buying palm oil shares and buy the commodity instead
I dont think shares are for you

Posted by KClow > 2022-04-27 18:55 | Report Abuse

Johnie boy
If you treat a plantation company as a commodity you have no clue how to invest
You are better off buying the commodity
We here are buying the company not the commodity

Posted by KClow > 2022-04-27 18:57 | Report Abuse

Johnie boy
Learn from warren buffet
Buy a company you trust in
If i look at cpo price to judge united plantations i am not investing also united plantation got coconuts too hehehe

Posted by mrbusiness > 2022-04-27 18:59 | Report Abuse

We are here to share and make friends, not enemies. Please be respectful everyone. Thank you very much

Posted by Abba84 > 2022-04-27 19:00 | Report Abuse

Joerakmo...which chart u refers t.? My price charts shows futures,7001 pr m.tns

Posted by Sslee > 2022-04-27 19:00 | Report Abuse

For downstream producers like palm oil refinery and olechemical where your customers signed purchase contract today(at an agreed contract price) today and delivery 3 month from now. Normally marketing will work out the CPO amt required cost plus for (profit margin based on certain CPO allocated price based on top management policy on spot price, price trend and forward hedging)

If company policy is not to hedge to the full this CPO allocated price and amount but only 50% natural hedge from your own plantation production or CPO FSPO for those indepandant refining without plantation (mean you only bought the 50% CPO hendge for forward 3 months for the amt required for the refining products you already sold)

So when delivery month customers will pay for their order refined products at agreed contract signed price 3 month ago and if you only hedged (from your own plantation 50%) and remain from outside at CPO spot price then your refining will incurred losses.

When oposite happen example contract signed for refine products delivere in 3 months time on current much higher price with 50% hedge and if in 3 month time CPO price drop then refining extra profit will be the unhedge potion of CPO price different during contract signed and actual price of CPO paid in 3 month time spot price.

It is more easy to work out the pure upstream plantation companies profit where you will get their monthly FFP production from Bursa announcement and whether the company selling spot or forward CPO.

Posted by joerakmo > 2022-04-27 20:59 | Report Abuse

@Abba84 CBOT July soyoil USD0.85

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-04-27 21:17 | Report Abuse

@sardin, I afraid my understanding is very different from your illustration above, Plantations do not oversell what they can possibly produced.
To get a bit more clarity we should dissect the 2 main segments of UP's business ie Plantation segment (producing CPO) and refining segment ( buying CPO to convert to refined products)

(a) Plantation segment
I want to draw you to page 9 of the latest qtr report (QR) where it showed the average selling price of CPO for Q1 2022 as $3,798. The average spot month price for Q1 2022 was $6,050. That means the plantation segment contracted forward sales at prevailing price then too far ahead. At $3,798, the plantation is still making healthy profit as reported. However, the theoritical opportunity loss is huge ie $2,252 pmt CPO ($60,50 -$3,798) . In comparision, if the Management decide to do spot or near spot month sales, the realised price would be closer to $6,000 as most small and midsize plantation would achieved and earning would soar.
Please note that the plantation segment sell CPO to external parties (55-60%) and also satisfying own refinaries feedstocks (40-45%). Rightly, UP's refinaries should generate very good profit due to well below market price CPO received from in house supplier. Unfortunately this was not the case.

(b) refining segment
Page 9 of the QR explained the hedge losses in a sketchy manner that non accountant usually have problem to fully comprehend (anyway, financial account are fond to write in words that confuse the ordinary public so as to avoid scrutiny).
In the nutshell, the 2 refinaries of UP contracted with the plantation segment some time ago forward supply contracts of CPO at much lower price than the price in the month the cargo due for delivery (say price X).
Correspondingly, the refinaries enter into Bursa Malaysia Derivative Commodity future market to sell forward the same CPO at certain predetermined price (say price XY). This is hedging against CPO price falling (it is like betting against CPO price dropping).
unfortunately CPO trends up substantially, the refinaries ended up square off (or buy back ) the outstanding commodity future contract at prevailing price (say XYZ).
When that was done, refineries suffered loss amounting to (XYZ) - XY = Z.
into next qtr, the refineries will still receive the physical stock at pre-contracted low price CPO following the schedule contracted. As such, the future qtr profit of the refineries is secured if there is no further loss from any outstanding CPO hedge not squared off.
In summary, the loss in squaring off the commodity future contract is a real loss the reduce the potential robust earning for FY 2022.

Posted by KClow > 2022-04-27 21:27 | Report Abuse

Johnie boy
Cpo up so much today
If you bought cpo directly you can make alot overnight
Then you no need waste time here talking
If you dont know how to buy cpo directly
Ask me
Take your pal sardin with you
Bye bye johnie boy

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-04-27 21:28 | Report Abuse

@sardin, I share my understanding of the events with you and others who are eager to know more with open mind. This is not aimed at running down any UP shareholders. We should promote more intellectual sharing and discussion in i3 so that public listed companies management do not get away so easily with their failures or wrong doing.

Posted by KClow > 2022-04-27 21:29 | Report Abuse

Come on johnie boy and sardin go and buy cpo directly in commodities market please

Posted by KClow > 2022-04-27 21:33 | Report Abuse

Yes yes johnie boy
If apple iphone selling price goes down in taiwan you will sell apple shares
Yes we all know
United plantations shareholders are nieve
We need a boy like yourself to enlighten us
Its like amazing what you are writing
But i wonder why you dont buy cpo in commodites market directly
Tell us