Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-21 21:03 | Report Abuse

Btw, a little psychology assessment for you.

When pressed to a corner, human tend to react impulsively revealing their true amd hidden self. From this episode, you have shown that in person, you are uncouth and thinks lowly of women.

Physically, you may be sufferring from erectile dysfunction or you may have a lesser than average size penis. The usual retorts by most men will be ‘suck my c*ck’. But you use ‘try’ meaning in your normal circumstances, you are used to having your partner putting effort into performing fellatio on you.

—————

Posted by probability > Apr 21, 2018 08:39 PM | Report Abuse

little john...try sucking my cock first....

Posted by Poisonivy > 2018-04-21 21:06 | Report Abuse

Gator translate the real time trading for Malaysia refinery...

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-21 21:07 | Report Abuse

We must ignore Probability because the next home for him Tanjung Rambutan hospital.Pls consult mental specialist before you break down for the sake of your loved ones.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2018-04-21 21:07 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-21 21:13 | Report Abuse

I’ve read that erectile dysfunction causes a lot of stress to the patient. And of course self doubt and lost of self confidence. I am not a doctor but progress has been made in this field where many men have been medically assisted.

In the case of men with smaller than average penis size, i believe it is society’s fault that places emphasis on big being better than small. Accept who you are and you will find the world a much better place.

—————

Posted by probability > Apr 21, 2018 09:05 PM | Report Abuse

eh fagot john...just shut up lah...dont bring rubbish here..

Posted by Guy2017 > 2018-04-21 21:19 | Report Abuse

Quit HY. Better invest in other counters. Lot of day traders and it becomes a gambling counter. Better put my funds in other growth counters. Sorry Guys ... see u all again in days to come.

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-21 21:19 | Report Abuse

At the first place they have no respects for God so God will not be hearing our prayers for them.God will ignore those who want to do their own ways n He will love the meek ones.

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-21 21:22 | Report Abuse

1st, it is spelt ‘faggot’.

2nd, in the modern society we live in, there is no place for discrimination against the LGBTs. They do not choose how they are born into. They are only trying to live like the rest of us. So please, dont discriminate against them or use their predicament as your entertainment or vulgar retort.

—————

Posted by probability > Apr 21, 2018 09:14 PM | Report Abuse

confirmed fagot leh...he need to refer to internet before he start fxxking...lol!

Posted by probability > 2018-04-21 21:24 | Report Abuse

Jenny...i will now delete my foul messages...but i think u need to be a little fair in telling others not to start the foul language war.

I can tell u never did i in i3 be the one who initiates such thing...

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-21 21:26 | Report Abuse

y probability > Apr 21, 2018 08:16 PM | Report Abuse

There are certain things beyond the comprehension of a raging BULL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEN0R7hK_3s
============


why you put such a cruel video, probability!

Posted by joekit > 2018-04-21 21:29 | Report Abuse

cmon guys...its weekend..take a break...how much u have in life has akrady been determined in the book of life...give ur precious time to ur loved ones and let us not forget to cherish and appreciatd what we hav now...cheers. hapoy weekend.

Posted by Investor48 > 2018-04-21 21:30 | Report Abuse

Talk so much nonsense for what..?
Monday morning first thing I do is to buy more HY shares..
Still remember the shares buyback announcement?

Hehe...

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-21 21:31 | Report Abuse

Why bother to delete? The damage has already been done on the person your message targeted. Besides, your vulgar messages are copied and pasted on our replies. This is the digital world. Messages sent out stay forever.

Your act of deleting your own messages is just to erase your track. If you are man enough to do, be man enough to live and face what you have do. If not, in the future, think thoroughly before you commit.

—————

Posted by probability > Apr 21, 2018 09:24 PM | Report Abuse

Jenny...i will now delete my foul messages...but i think u need to be a little fair in telling others not to start the foul language war.

I can tell u never did i in i3 be the one who initiates such thing...

Posted by probability > 2018-04-21 21:36 | Report Abuse

John...just do one thing...you are not happy with the facts i am presenting...attack them...not me...

and i have all the rights to chose when to respond to your queries and when not.

Do not start personal attack.

A person with your knowledge should easily have the common sense to understand this logic.

Posted by Karex > 2018-04-21 21:41 | Report Abuse

If you are not an expert or have the full knowledge on the crack spread, just leave it to the HY refinery expert team. Fighting over here will not solve the problem. It will make HY counter looks bad. :-) :-)

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-21 21:43 | Report Abuse

You have some serious delusional problem. I am merely doing what you do to me. Dont ever talk vulgar about other people’s mother or any family member. Dont worry, i will not go so low as you.

Dont do unto others what you dont want others do unto you.

—————

Posted by probability > Apr 21, 2018 09:36 PM | Report Abuse

John...just do one thing...you are not happy with the facts i am presenting...attack them...not me...

and i have all the rights to chose when to respond to your queries and when not.

Do not start personal attack.

A person with your knowledge should easily have the common sense to understand this logic.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-21 21:45 | Report Abuse

5.69 USD/Brl......average "REFINING" MARGIN.

Posted by itch > 2018-04-21 21:48 | Report Abuse

Hi probability,

Just want to clarify with you. I was surprised with your comments today that WTI crude is not suited for HY type refinery. I remember the below was mentioned by you in Feb. Can HY use WTI if the price is advantageous as compared to brent? Please advise. Thanks


 Feb 21, 2018 11:16 PM | Report Abuse 

WTI crude and Brent is 100% compatible for interchanging in Hengyuan refinery. Both oil specification is almost 100% identical.


probability HY had never been able to utilize WTI as proven in Q4 2017, despite having the highest Brent-WTI differential ever due to shutdown of the Forties Pipeline System during this time. 

The difference quoted are FOB basis and excludes high transportation cost and Customs tax differences (if any) and most importantly, WTI is not suited for high middle distillate yielding refineries like HY. 

Price differential changes by the time WTI is delivered DDP via VLCC due to the long travelling time. 

During Q1 2018 differential between Brent & WTI had dropped to a level where WTI is out of the question for any considerations.

21/04/2018 14:08

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-21 21:48 | Report Abuse

Why is yor margin so much lower than the 2 numbers i calculated and showed? Please show how your $5.69 was derived. There must be a means of arriving at a final figure.

—————

Posted by probability > Apr 21, 2018 09:45 PM | Report Abuse

5.69 USD/Brl......average "REFINING" MARGIN.

Posted by MC33 > 2018-04-21 21:48 | Report Abuse

What was Hy refining margin Y2017 ?

Posted by probability > 2018-04-21 21:50 | Report Abuse

at the time of writing i sincerely 100% from the bottom of my heart believed that they can use it.

But upon seeing Q4 2017 results which did not even match the margin obtainable relative to Brent, it was conclusive that HY did not managed to use WTI.


Posted by itch > Apr 21, 2018 09:48 PM | Report Abuse

Hi probability,

Just want to clarify with you. I was surprised with your comments today that WTI crude is not suited for HY type refinery. I remember the below was mentioned by you in Feb. Can HY use WTI if the price is advantageous as compared to brent? Please advise. Thanks


Feb 21, 2018 11:16 PM | Report Abuse

WTI crude and Brent is 100% compatible for interchanging in Hengyuan refinery. Both oil specification is almost 100% identical.


probability HY had never been able to utilize WTI as proven in Q4 2017, despite having the highest Brent-WTI differential ever due to shutdown of the Forties Pipeline System during this time.

The difference quoted are FOB basis and excludes high transportation cost and Customs tax differences (if any) and most importantly, WTI is not suited for high middle distillate yielding refineries like HY.

Price differential changes by the time WTI is delivered DDP via VLCC due to the long travelling time.

During Q1 2018 differential between Brent & WTI had dropped to a level where WTI is out of the question for any considerations.

21/04/2018 14:08

Posted by probability > 2018-04-21 21:52 | Report Abuse

Further investigation on WTI made me understand that its not that suitable for high middle distillate yield refineries like HY.

Posted by itch > 2018-04-21 21:53 | Report Abuse

Ok thanks probability

Posted by Investor48 > 2018-04-21 21:55 | Report Abuse

Can we trust the wisdom of someone (so called expert in refineries), who panic and sell at 6 and after that HY immediately rebound to 9 within a few days?
Mai siaw la... better trust yourself or trust tikam also better..ah

Hehe...

Posted by Karex > 2018-04-21 21:56 | Report Abuse

Yeah... Dr Buckley said the Port Dickson refinery could emerge as one of the best plants with income potential in the region as it could contribute about US$20 million a month

===================================================

US$20 million a month= RM 912 million per annum . EPS= 3.04

HY 2017 EPS = 3.03 same as claimed by Dr Buckley. Yes, the Chinese did it.

After upgrading EPS > 3.04 ? :-)


====================================================

yeah. whether you like it or not like it, hurricane or no hurricane, crack here or crack there, the existing plant is capable to generate US$20 million a month= RM 912 million per annum . EPS= 3.04 :-) :-)

Posted by apple168 > 2018-04-21 22:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by apple168 > 2018-04-21 22:03 | Report Abuse

Support with share buyback by HengYuan company.. upside very high..

Posted by Undilah_DAP > 2018-04-21 22:10 | Report Abuse

Dr Mahathir's Encouraging Words - Koon Yew Yin
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/154624.jsp

Posted by SmartyAlek > 2018-04-21 22:22 | Report Abuse

Let's goreng next week

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-21 22:23 | Report Abuse

I wish to highlight that you were very confident of that fact then and you scolded and chided commenters who did not agree with the use of WTI. Does this mean you were bullshitting through your nose back then without knowing the real facts? If that is not called fake news, i dont know what is.

And to think that so many of us believed you because you spoke with so much conviction, believe and expertise. I was also fooled by you. This is a lesson learnt by me.

And you should understand why so many of us cannot believe in anything you say nowadays because your ‘facts’ change 180 degrees the moment you sell off your hengyuan shares at a cutloss price. You have 0 credibility.

—————

Posted by probability > Apr 21, 2018 09:52 PM | Report Abuse

Further investigation on WTI made me understand that its not that suitable for high middle distillate yield refineries like HY.

Posted by moneypedia > 2018-04-21 22:23 | Report Abuse

ermm

Posted by 10154675247544965 > 2018-04-21 23:09 | Report Abuse

At current price 8.32 is below TP rm 15

OPEC oil cut and Saudi and Russia togetherness. We should be able to see petrol to reach 90

USA try to bring down the oil price to destroy Russia economy but it can’t work out.

The crack may plays an important role but HY analysts may hedge the price earlier before it surge like last year.

Election is coming BN stop the petrol price to adjust higher. BN uses our money to subsidy petronM and HY.

Next week Hy will not go below rm 8. It’s rm 9 onwards.

Please pump petrol at shell. Vote wisely and never vote for the fox which always carries a tail ya

Thanks for reading.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-21 23:17 | Report Abuse

Firstly, i was not bullshitting - and its extremely rude of you to accuse me as such. All information presented here are based on my industrial knowledge and news that surfaced.

If i am 100% certain, like i am the management team or employee of HY, i would not need to come here and share my findings for a counter opinion. Everything is what is probable from what is being perceived and what calculated actions we should do.

Such queries/accusations of yours are actually more valid to those whom you pay for subscription - for investment service and to those well known public figures who gives recommendation publicly and has a higher responsibility to the society including IBs.

Again, i am emphasizing to you to stop attacking me personally...,

I think you certainly have some kind of psychological problem.

This is my last respond to you as i think i need other i3 members to know my stand here.

Pls get lost from directing your queries to me - i wont respond.



Posted by John_Lee > Apr 21, 2018 10:23 PM | Report Abuse

I wish to highlight that you were very confident of that fact then and you scolded and chided commenters who did not agree with the use of WTI. Does this mean you were bullshitting through your nose back then without knowing the real facts? If that is not called fake news, i dont know what is.

And to think that so many of us believed you because you spoke with so much conviction, believe and expertise. I was also fooled by you. This is a lesson learnt by me.

And you should understand why so many of us cannot believe in anything you say nowadays because your ‘facts’ change 180 degrees the moment you sell off your hengyuan shares at a cutloss price. You have 0 credibility.

—————

Posted by probability > Apr 21, 2018 09:52 PM | Report Abuse

Further investigation on WTI made me understand that its not that suitable for high middle distillate yield refineries like HY.

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-21 23:57 | Report Abuse

Probability,

In the case of the WTI, you should not have derided and chided everyone who challenged your claim. You claimed of your intense industrial knowledge and argued as though your words were the gospel truth.

Unfortunately, your claim back then of hengyuan being able to use WTI is not a fact which you claimed was 100% truth. Fact means truth. As it turns out months later after you repeatedly claim is fact, today, you said that:

‘Further investigation on WTI made me understand that its not that suitable for high middle distillate yield refineries like HY.’

So it was not a fact at all all this while. It’s a figment of your imagination which you peddle to be ‘industrial knowledge’ and your ‘upperhand trade secrets’. And now you have revealed that it was actually an information which you actually did not really know and did not thoroughly research until now.

And what ‘news that surfaced’? Was there any news which supported your claim back then that hengyuan could use WTI? No, there wasnt. It is all based on your unscrupulous action of spreading half-baked fairy tales.

The question many members here is asking now is whether hengyuan can actually use WTI. I am not such ‘industry expert’ and i certainly do not know the answer. There is no shame in me saying this. But whatever yes or no answer that comes from you, let me tell you this, experienced members will not put an ounce of faith into what you say. You have admitted and have been caught peddling self-interest fairy tales here. To many of us here, you have lost your credibility.

There is nothing personal here between you and me until you repeatedly used profanities and vulgarities against my mother. That was low class and of bad taste. That, i will hold against you.

The real reason why you are viewed with much distrust here when you were respected here up to 3 weeks ago, or simply from hero to zero, is your own doing. You are Peddling fake news to suit your investment needs at the expense of members here. We come here to share, but you come here to take advantage of us. Reflect upon that.

—————

Posted by probability > Apr 21, 2018 11:17 PM | Report Abuse

All information presented here are based on my industrial knowledge and news that surfaced.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 00:13 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MC33 > 2018-04-22 00:20 | Report Abuse

B calm it’s now anew day

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-22 00:24 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-22 00:43 | Report Abuse

CAN U MARK THIS....SO THAT U CAN TAKE NOTE OF PROBABILITY CON!! ...IF IT TURN OUT THAT RAIDER IS RIGHT LOH..!!

U MUST UNDERSTAND THIS LOH, AT RM 8.30....WE R NOT LOOKING EPS OF RM 3.03 LIKE IN 2017 MAH....!!

THUS THE PRICE ALREADY DISCOUNTED A LOWER EARNINGS OF HY LOH...!!
REMEMBER HY 2018 EPS RAIDER ESTIMATE ABOUT RM 2.00 LOH...!!

THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SHARE PRICE OF RM 13.00 GOING FWD LOH..!!


Posted by probability > Apr 22, 2018 12:33 AM | Report Abuse

go ahead believe raider....and dont let him go when the results shows otherwise

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-22 00:48 | Report Abuse

ASK YOURSELF WHETHER HENGYUAN AT RM 9.28 REBOUNDING FROM RM 6.00 LOW IS IT STILL THAT CHEAP LEH ???

THE ANS IS YES IT IS CHEAP LOH....!!

ANALYSIS OF HENGYUAN
2005
PRICE RANGE RM 8.50 TO RM 12.30
EPS RM 1.74

2006
PRICE RANGE RM 9.55 TO RM 11.20
EPS RM 0.86

2007
PRICE RANGE RM 9.50 TO RM 11.60
EPS RM 1.98

2008
PRICE RANGE RM 7.95 TO RM 11.80
EPS RM (1.10} LOSS

2009
PRICE RANGE RM 8.05 TO RM 11.30
EPS RM 0.97

2010
PRICE RANGE RM 10.40 TO RM 11.00
EPS RM 0.36

2011
PRICE RANGE RM 9.11 TO RM 11.20
EPS { RM 0.41} LOSS

2012
PRICE RANGE RM 8.38 TO RM 10.38
EPS RM { 0.32 } LOSS

2013
PRICE RANGE RM 6.40 TO RM 11.20
EPS { RM 0.52} LOSS


IF U LOOK AT THE TABLE ABOVE HENGYUAN HAS BEEN ALWAYS TRADING CLOSE TO RM 9.00 & ABOVE LEVEL FROM 2005 TO 2010 LEVEL. THE RANGE IS RM 8.50 TO RM 12.30 AVERAGING ABOVE RM 10.00 LOH....!!

EVEN 3 CONSECUTIVE YR OF LOSSES FROM 2011 TO 2013 HENGYUAN STILL TRADE AT RM 6.40 TO RM 11.30 STILL AVERAGING ABOVE RM 9.00 MOST OF THE TIME LOH....!!


AFTER SHPC TAKEOVER OF SHELL AND RENAMED HENGYUAN VERY GOOD PROFIT HAS BEEN REPORTED LOH....!!

AT SUCH A GOOD PROFIT BEING REPORTED BASED ON CONSECUTIVE 3 YRS AVERAGE EPS OF HENGYUAN IS ABOVE RM 1.77 LOH...!!


Posted by stockraider > Apr 13, 2018 04:40 PM | Report Abuse X

the fruits is already being reap loh...!!
thats why hengyuan $$$$$$$$$$ profit mah....!!

TO ANS HOW GOOD IS HENGYUAN;

SURELY HENGYUAN A GOOD CO....WHEN EPS VERY GOOD MAH...!!
Remember Hengyuan average 3 yrs profit are as follow loh....!!

eps
2015......rm 1.17
2016..... rm 1.11
2017..... rm 3.03

AVERAGE 3 YR EPS PA RM 1.77 LOH....!!


THUS THE SHARE PRICE TODAY AT RM 9.28 IS DAMN CHEAP LOH....!!

JUST GIVE U A FEEL HOW CHEAP , WE COMPARE TO NESTLE LOH...!!

2005 HENGYUAN AVG SHARE PRICE RM 9.00 V NESTLE AVG RM 24.50

2008 HENGYUAN AVG SHARE PRICE RM 9.49 V NESTLE AVG RM 27.5O

2011 HENGYUAN AVG SHARE PRICE RM 10.00 V NESTLE AVG RM 50.00



2018 NOW HENGYUAN SHARE PRICE RM 9.28 V NESTLE RM 149.00

DON FORGET HENGYUAN 2017 EARN RECORD EPS OF RM 3.03 EVEN EXCEED NESTLE EPS OF RM 2.75 IN 2017 LOH...!!

FROM THE ABOVE ANALYSIS RAIDER HOPE U UNDERSTAND HOW MUCH TREMENDOUS VALUE HENGYUAN STILL HAVE AND SCOPE OF SUPERB TREMENDOUS APPRECIATION GOOD FORWARD LOH....!!

DO NOT LET CONMAN AND NAYSAYERS CON U OUT OF YOUR POSITION ON HENGYUAN LOH.......!! AT THIS PRICE RM 9.28 IT IS STILL A SCREAMING BUY LOH..!!

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 00:49 | Report Abuse

Aiyo NO SINCERE investor want to take up this quiz challenge leh...

kikiki

.............................................
SPECIAL QUIZ.....


CRACK SPREAD drop by 4 USD/brl now from 10.5 USD/brl in 2017 (without hurricane effect which shot it to 15 USD/brl almost 1.5 month) to 6.5 USD/brl.

anyone CARE & DARE to find out the implications on EPS going forward?

...................................................

YOU CAN EVEN TAKE OUT THE INVENTORY BULLSHIT HERE AS CLAIMED BY SOME

IMPORTANT THING IS TAKE NOTE THAT "1 USD/BRL CHANGE" RESULTS WITH 160M IMPACT ON GROSS PROFIT PER ANNUM.
.....................................................


Posted by Icon8818 > Apr 7, 2018 07:00 PM | Report Abuse

Gross Profit for 2017 was 1430M

Take out inventory Gain of 400M in 2017, Gross Profit becomes:
= 1030M


Consider Inventory loss of at least 100M, Gross Profit becomes:
= 930M

Consider Fixed cost of 150M per qtr x 4 qtrs per year:
= 600M


PBT for 2018 without any shutdown & upgrade
= 330 M

PAT for 2018 without any shutdown & upgrade
= 250M

EPS for whole year 2018 = 83 cents (considering the same exceptional refining margin in 2017 - Hurricane Harvey)

Do you know it only takes 1 USD/brl refining margin reduction to wipe out 160M profit in 2018.

If you consider that, the PBT becomes, 170M and PAT becomes 130M.

That is an EPS of 43 cents without any funny assumptions going forward.


43 cents per annum means 10 cents per qtr.

This means HY was generous to give a 2 cents dividend with a payout of 20%

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-22 00:53 | Report Abuse

1. Divert queries to what men? It was you who made the claim that hengyuan can use WTI. Are you now saying you never said hengyuan can use WTI and profit from the price difference?

2. When did i ever say you cannot use profanity? I only said keep it between you and me. Dont involve my mother when you use profanities.

—————

Posted by probability > Apr 22, 2018 12:13 AM | Report Abuse

you are first class hypocrite..if you are really a man (not a faggot) - divert you fxxking queries to these men not me:

Such queries/accusations of yours are actually more valid to those whom you pay for subscription - for investment service and to those well known public figures who gives recommendation publicly and has a higher responsibility to the society including IBs.

You can use prick on me...and i cant use foul language? There is level of foul language allowed?

First class faggot.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 01:00 | Report Abuse

Posted by John_Lee > Apr 22, 2018 12:53 AM | Report Abuse

1. Divert queries to what men? It was you who made the claim that hengyuan can use WTI. Are you now saying you never said hengyuan can use WTI and profit from the price difference?

answer: yes i did, and i still believe so. But its apparent now that there is practical issue to implement this combined with some process reasons (minor).

2. When did i ever say you cannot use profanity? I only said keep it between you and me. Dont involve my mother when you use profanities.

answer: for me if someone use that to hurt me, the rules are broken....and you can do whatever u want - there is no restriction/limits to it.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-22 01:00 | Report Abuse

LIKE RAIDER SAYS;

WHENEVER CRACK SPREAD BETWEEN USD 7 TO USD 10 IS CONSIDER GOOD LOH...!!

CRACK SPREAD BETWEEN USD 4 TO 7 IS CONSIDER REASONABLE LOH...!!

CRACK SPREAD BETWWEN USD 2 TO 4 IS CONSIDER LOW LOH...!!

CRACK SPREAD BELOW USD 2 LIKELY TO LOSE MONIES LOH...!!

NOW CONMAN PROBABILITY TOOK THE EXCEPTIONAL 2017 HIGH OF CRACK SPREAD OF USD 10.5 ASK U TO WORK UP THE IMPACT, SURELY WILL GIVE U A MISLEADING FIGURE MAH...!!

WHY LIKE THIS LEH ??
DO U KNOW 2017, RECORD HY PROFIT EPS OF RM 3.03....THE AVERAGE CRACK SPREAD OF HY FOR THE WHOLE YR IS AROUND USD 8 PER BARREL, SURELY BY PICKING A VERY HIGH UNSUSTAINABLE CRACK SPREAD OF USD 10.5, PROBABILITY WANTS TO MISLEAD U...THAT HY EARNINGS IS A DISASTER LOH...!!

IT IS NOT TRUE LOH....!!

Posted by probability > Apr 22, 2018 12:49 AM | Report Abuse

Aiyo NO SINCERE investor want to take up this quiz challenge leh...

kikiki

.............................................
SPECIAL QUIZ.....


CRACK SPREAD drop by 4 USD/brl now from 10.5 USD/brl in 2017 (without hurricane effect which shot it to 15 USD/brl almost 1.5 month) to 6.5 USD/brl.

anyone CARE & DARE to find out the implications on EPS going forward?

...................................................

YOU CAN EVEN TAKE OUT THE INVENTORY BULLSHIT HERE AS CLAIMED BY SOME

IMPORTANT THING IS TAKE NOTE THAT "1 USD/BRL CHANGE" RESULTS WITH 160M IMPACT ON GROSS PROFIT PER ANNUM.
.....................................................


Posted by Icon8818 > Apr 7, 2018 07:00 PM | Report Abuse

Gross Profit for 2017 was 1430M

Take out inventory Gain of 400M in 2017, Gross Profit becomes:
= 1030M


Consider Inventory loss of at least 100M, Gross Profit becomes:
= 930M

Consider Fixed cost of 150M per qtr x 4 qtrs per year:
= 600M


PBT for 2018 without any shutdown & upgrade
= 330 M

PAT for 2018 without any shutdown & upgrade
= 250M

EPS for whole year 2018 = 83 cents (considering the same exceptional refining margin in 2017 - Hurricane Harvey)

Do you know it only takes 1 USD/brl refining margin reduction to wipe out 160M profit in 2018.

If you consider that, the PBT becomes, 170M and PAT becomes 130M.

That is an EPS of 43 cents without any funny assumptions going forward.


43 cents per annum means 10 cents per qtr.

This means HY was generous to give a 2 cents dividend with a payout of 20%

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 01:03 | Report Abuse

Though i am sincere, i have no real obligations to ensure the correctness of my understanding...and conviction are true as much as the following people:

"Such queries/accusations of yours are actually more valid to those whom you pay for subscription - for investment service and to those well known public figures who gives recommendation publicly and has a higher responsibility to the society including IBs. "
.......................................................

so, you should be spending your energy on them not me.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-22 01:05 | Report Abuse

CONMAN WILL ALWAYS QUALIFIED WITH IF & BUTS JUST IN CASE LOH....!!

Posted by probability > Apr 22, 2018 01:03 AM | Report Abuse

Though i am sincere, i have no real obligations to ensure the correctness of my understanding...and conviction are true as much as the following people:

"Such queries/accusations of yours are actually more valid to those whom you pay for subscription - for investment service and to those well known public figures who gives recommendation publicly and has a higher responsibility to the society including IBs. "
.......................................................

so, you should be spending your energy on them not me

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-22 01:16 | Report Abuse

1. That’s not what you replied to itch a few hours ago. I quote you: ‘‘Further investigation on WTI made me understand that its not that suitable for high middle distillate yield refineries like HY.’

The point i want to make is that you did not do a proper research on the suitability of hengyuan using WTI and yet you trumpet it as the gospel truth. But to you, you are not a paid service, you are not an IB. So you can say what you want because nobody should hold you responsible for what you say. FYI, that is exactly why the government came up with fake news law.

2. I quote you: ‘the rules are broken....and you can do whatever u want - there is no restriction/limits to it.’

It shows your class and maturity.

Let me advise you, you are only brave to do this because you are hiding behind an anonymous name. You think no one will find out who you really are. Dont be so sure about that.

—————

Posted by probability > Apr 22, 2018 01:00 AM | Report Abuse

answer: yes i did, and i still believe so. But its apparent now that there is practical issue to implement this combined with some process reasons (minor).

answer: for me if someone use that to hurt me, the rules are broken....and you can do whatever u want - there is no restriction/limits to it.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 01:55 | Report Abuse

Even if i use my real name & identity i standby my statements. It does not matter. I had invested on my ID more longer than you.

As long as you can never understand the below statement its pointless to respond to you. Luks like i have told this to myself 20 times and yet keep responding to you as u seem sincere on you incorrect statements but i am unable to bridge it. It should end.
...................................................

All information presented here are based on my industrial knowledge and news that surfaced.

If i am 100% certain, like i am the management team or employee of HY, i would not need to come here and share my findings for a counter opinion. Everything is what is probable from what is being perceived and what calculated actions we should do.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 02:03 | Report Abuse

Posted by John_Lee > Apr 22, 2018 01:16 AM | Report Abuse

1. That’s not what you replied to itch a few hours ago. I quote you: ‘‘Further investigation on WTI made me understand that its not that suitable for high middle distillate yield refineries like HY.’

The point i want to make is that you did not do a proper research on the suitability of hengyuan using WTI and yet you trumpet it as the gospel truth. But to you, you are not a paid service, you are not an IB. So you can say what you want because nobody should hold you responsible for what you say. FYI, that is exactly why the government came up with fake news law.

..................

The word ' not that suitable' conveys the same message that there is a minor process issue.

I am not a news agent or working for media which carries a much heavier responsibility.

Looks like you would sue your wife and kids and parents if they had made some incorrect statements/ opinions.

these are the first class assholes who debates everything based on so called 'laws' when the internal conscience is zero...when its all just purely based on vested interests.

people like u should deserve no pity. true hidden parasites of the society.

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-22 02:24 | Report Abuse

Probability,

Thanks for acknowledging and admitting that you are a person who is not responsible for things you say.

I hope you now understand why i kept on saying you have credibility issues.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 02:30 | Report Abuse

2. I quote you: ‘the rules are broken....and you can do whatever u want - there is no restriction/limits to it.’

It shows your class and maturity.

Let me advise you, you are only brave to do this because you are hiding behind an anonymous name. You think no one will find out who you really are. Dont be so sure about that.

................................

That shows what kind of breed you are ...it takes one to assume another. Descendents of those who sell themself for money.

with an id just created on Mar 2018 with a mere 277 posts almost in HY forum.

what gravity should one give to you to believe u more than me?

Have ever managed to say any opinions of you own on stocks?