Posted by dompeilee > 2018-04-21 15:01 | Report Abuse

No la...the 'one' you are talking about could have made his $ under the table during his many many many years in the booming Msian construction industry.

Read the papers? One middle-aged woman was able to to steal RM4.9m in just a couple of years lately!

If he really made his $ from sharemarket, he wouldn't have been so DUMB to accumulate 37 m shares in Xinquan which went bust last year!

Posted by uptrending > 2018-04-21 15:02 | Report Abuse

Pakatan Harapan Manifesto

On Minimum wages

Kadar gaji minimum akan dinaikkan kepada RM1,500
sebulan di seluruh negara dalam penggal pertama
pentadbiran Kerajaan Pakatan Harapan, dan kami
akan menyemak kadar ini setiap 2 tahun.

Untuk mengurangkan
bebanan kepada majikan,
Kerajaan Pakatan Harapan akan berkongsi 50 peratus
daripada kos ini dengan majikan. Ini bermaksud apabila
gaji minimum dinaikkan daripada RM1,000 ke RM1,500,
Kerajaan Pakatan Harapan akan membiayai RM250,
manakala majikan pula membiayai RM250 lagi.
Lambakan pekerja asing adalah salah satu faktor yang
menyebabkan gaji pekerja Malaysia tidak meningkat
dengan sewajarnya.
UMNO dan Barisan Nasional gagal sama sekali
mengawal lambakan pekerja asing. Kerajaan Pakatan
Harapan akan mengurangkan bilangan pekerja asing
daripada 6 juta kepada 4 juta orang dalam penggal
pertama pentadbiran kami.

Posted by gator > 2018-04-21 15:03 | Report Abuse

Posted by Lee Yih Yeong > Apr 21, 2018 02:20 PM | Report Abuse

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Shells-Profits-Soar...

congrat to hengyuan.. monday fly
-------

Oil major Shell has snapped up over 8 million barrels of June-loading crude oil grades from the Middle East and Russia and has resold some of the cargoes in Asia, taking advantage of the strong Asian demand, Reuters reported on Friday, citing five trading sources.

Wider Brent premium over the Middle Eastern benchmark Dubai this month has made Atlantic crude oil supplies more expensive than the Middle Eastern and Russian supplies, which are priced off the Dubai benchmark.

According to two of Reuters’ sources directly involved in the trades, Shell has bought six cargoes of Qatar Marine, four cargoes of Upper Zakum, three cargoes of Russian Sokol, and at least one Banoco Arab Medium and one al-Shaheen cargo from various sellers.

The Anglo-Dutch oil major has resold one of the Qatar Marine cargoes to a customer in Thailand at a premium of more than US$0.20 per barrel to the official selling price (OSP) of the grade, compared to premiums of between US$0.10 and US$0.20 a barrel in previous deals, Reuters sources said.

Shell’s oil cargo acquisitions have reduced the spot availability, and for some of the crude grades, Shell is the only seller, according to Reuters’ sources.

Demand in Asia is strong, and some analysts believe that it’s stronger than expected, even though oil prices have risen.
“Chinese demand points to strong growth,” Reuters quoted Goldman Sachs as saying in a note to clients. Demand growth may be “higher than currently estimated,” according to Goldman.

Some analysts in Asia don’t expect refineries across the region to reduce imports or cut refinery rates because of the high oil prices, but some traders expect major overhauls at some Chinese refineries in May and June.
--------------

Comment: THE ABOVE ARTICLE BY REUTERS SHOWS ACTUAL PHYSICAL DELIVERY.

In contrast,

Probability has been quoting drops of crack spreads based on CME futures. Futures are only a hedging tool for refiners and speculating instrument for traders. And as qq3 pointed out there was no volumes from April onward. ZERO TRANSACTION...Sellers cannot find buyers (typically refiners will buy when spreads are high to hedge and protect margins)

Check it out.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/refined-products/singapore-mogas-92-unleaded-platts-brent-crack-spread-swap-futures.html

Do not be misled by probabaility

LIAR, LIAR, PANTS ON FIRE!!!

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-21 15:08 | Report Abuse

dompeilee > Apr 21, 2018 03:01 PM | Report Abuse

No la...the 'one' you are talking about could have made his $ under the table during his many many many years in the booming Msian construction industry.
========

after a while, money is just a number in a ledger.....especially since money seems to just fall from the sky by buying and selling shares.....just lifting the telephone only.

Posted by uptrending > 2018-04-21 15:17 | Report Abuse

Buku Harapan
Pakatan Harapan Manifesto
ON TOLL

Janji 6: Menghapuskan kutipan tol
Syarikat-syarikat yang diberikan konsesi tol oleh
kerajaan menikmati keuntungan yang sangat tinggi.
Buktinya ialah sebuah syarikat, iaitu MAJU Holdings, boleh
menawarkan untuk mengambil alih Lebuhraya PLUS
dengan janji untuk tidak menaikkan bayaran tol selama
20 tahun. Jika konsesi itu tidak untung, bagaimana
mungkin MAJU Holdings menawarkan untuk mengambil
alih tanpa menaikkan bayaran sebegitu lama?
Tetapi UMNO dan Barisan Nasional terus membiarkan
syarikat penerima konsesi, seperti PLUS, terus menerus
menekan rakyat demi keuntungan, walaupun ia
adalah syarikat milik kerajaan. Jelas sekali, UMNO dan
Barisan Nasional tiada keinginan untuk menghentikan
kenaikan harga tol. Malahan, perjanjian yang mereka
tandatangani memaksa wang rakyat digunakan untuk
memberi pampasan berbilion ringgit kepada syarikat-
syarikat terpilih. Walaupun tol mungkin tidak dinaikkan
atau dihapuskan, syarikat-syarikat terpilih itu terus
mengaut keuntungan akibat perjanjian berat sebelah.
Pakatan Harapan berpegang dengan prinsip bahawa
monopoli konsesi yang dimiliki oleh syarikat-syarikat
tertentu yang rapat dengan kerajaan perlu dihentikan.
Kerajaan Pakatan Harapan akan mengkaji semula
semua perjanjian konsesi lebuhraya. Kami akan
berunding untuk mendapatkan harga yang terbaik
untuk mengambil alih setiap konsesi tol dengan
matlamat akhir untuk menghapuskan kutipan tol secara berperingkat

Posted by uptrending > 2018-04-21 15:20 | Report Abuse

DO NOT TWIST PAKATAN HARAPAN MANIFESTO

Posted by probability > 2018-04-21 15:35 | Report Abuse

The high Demand for Crude oil is high from China...as there are couple of huge new refineries there which started production including a few from Thailand.

China is churning these Crude oil and flooding the market with Refined products....

Its incomprehensible to see investors considering to invest in HY without knowing what is upstream, midstream and downstream players...

and not knowing the difference between Crack spread and the absolute price of Crude Oil.

Posted by 10154675247544965 > 2018-04-21 15:44 | Report Abuse

Join politic better if you want to be rich. In Malaysia most politician are rich.

Invest in hy May take time. TP rm18

Posted by Jururawat > 2018-04-21 15:49 | Report Abuse

Good

Posted by uptrending > 2018-04-21 15:56 | Report Abuse

习近平：
当官就不要发财
发财就不要当官

http://dangjian.people.com.cn/n1/2017/0515/c117092-29275600.html

Posted by gator > 2018-04-21 16:36 | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > Apr 21, 2018 03:35 PM | Report Abuse

... not knowing the difference between Crack spread and the absolute price of Crude Oil...

-----

Don't try to hide behind all that nonsense of crack spreads. Paperplane is right. TIU..

85% of HY's refined products are sold domestically which is based on the MOPS monthly average (now weekly) + margins for an alpha buffer, operations, refiner and retailers.

BE VERY CLEAR ON THIS!

"HY margins not affected by movements in crack spreads as they are fixed by governments with an alpha buffer to absorb differences."


https://paultan.org/2009/02/15/how-fuel-prices-are-calculated-in-malaysia/

You may ask what exactly is the MOPS? Many countries in this region base their fuel prices on the MOPS, including alot of ASEAN countries and even Australia.

The index is tracked, assessed and updated by Platts, a McGraw-Hill company in Singapore and is based on the daily average of all trading transactions between buyer and seller of petroleum-based products.

A buyer of a finished (refined) oil product will refer to the MOPS index as a better indicator/benchmark of world prices rather than crude oil prices. The MOPS price typically has a premium over the crude oil prices. This is why the Malaysian government uses MOPS to determine fuel prices rather than NYMEX crude oil prices. Unfortunately it is hard to track MOPS prices as individuals because the data is only available to those who purchase it, unlike the publicly available charts from the NYMEX.

TIU...SALUTE TO PAPERPLANE!!!

Posted by Ubah_is_good > 2018-04-21 16:36 | Report Abuse

Under BN past 5 years cannot. Perhaps yes under Pakatan?

BursaTornado How to justify TP 57?
TA?

@Donovan Long term tp 57
21/04/2018 12:55
21/04/2018 13:22

Posted by Beginner18 > 2018-04-21 16:59 | Report Abuse

Stop talking politic in this forum.

Posted by Beginner18 > 2018-04-21 17:01 | Report Abuse

U r the share good or bad news here.
DYODD. No more back stab.

Posted by gator > 2018-04-21 17:48 | Report Abuse

CORRECTION;

BE VERY CLEAR ON THIS!

"HY margins not affected by movements in crack spreads as refining margins are fixed by the government with an alpha buffer to absorb differences."

Profits from refining margins, by and large, should be stable with growth coming from higher consumption.

Therefore, HY's profitability is more dependent on its efficiency in sourcing the right crude diet or blends at best pricing, selling higher margin products, utilization rate and hedging operations to protect inventory values.

PERIOD.

Posted by gsi723 > 2018-04-21 18:47 | Report Abuse

So ka.... So oil up, it will have inventory gain (+ve) . The only major risk is when oil price drastically down

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-21 18:53 | Report Abuse

Hey Probability Prick, you want to talk crack spread and brent crude right? Come, lets talk that.

Prices at 20 April close:
MOPS Mogas 95 - $81.284
MOPS Gasoil - $83.933
Brent Crude - $74.06

3:2:1 crack spread = ($162.57 + $83.93 - $222.18) / 3 = $8.11

$8.11 crack spread still not happy? Oh that is not accurate because hengyuan is on FIFO. They hold inventory for a month? Ok. Lets use 22/3/18 Brent Crude price as cost @ $68.91.

3:2:1 crack spread = ($162.57 + $83.93 - $206.73) / 3 = $13.26

Crack spread of $13.26 is quite very impressive dont you think?

Posted by Dcmh > 2018-04-21 18:54 | Report Abuse

All can be refinery boss after 5 years of this forum research and debates

Posted by Huat1 > 2018-04-21 18:58 | Report Abuse

John Lee ...Good point

Posted by probability > 2018-04-21 19:05 | Report Abuse

It would be interesting to check what was Hengyuan's EPS in Q3 2016.

........................................................

April 20, 2018, 13:44 IST

Singapore: Gasoline profits for Asia's oil refiners hit their lowest since 2016,

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/asias-gasoline-glut-drags-refining-margins-to-3-month-low/63843845

Asia's gasoline profit margins, known as crack, based on Brent crude oil dived to $5.42 a barrel, the lowest since Aug. 24, 2016. "Margins are getting smashed," said Nevyn Nah, oil products analyst at Energy Aspects in Singapore.

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-21 19:20 | Report Abuse

Prick,

Rebutt my computation pls. I have proven with numbers that you are talking garbage. What cliff of death? Where? Crack spread of $13.26 is death? You crazy ah?

And for the millionth time, please stop looking at CME’s Mogas 92 crack spread futures. It is NOT the same thing!

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-21 19:22 | Report Abuse

Prick, rebut me with facts and numbers. Not some irrelevant youtube videos. That is your best form of rebuttal? Best already?

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-21 19:23 | Report Abuse

John_Lee,the cost of brent crude=3x74.06=222.18 will produce 2 times mogas 95,=2x81.284=162.568,gassoil=1x83.93
Value generated=162.568+83.93-222.18=39.58
Hence for one crude Brent,the crack spread=13.28. All are in dollars n in barrel as measurement.
Pls correct me if I am wrong.

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-21 19:26 | Report Abuse

Fam Jenny, your recap is correct. That was done based on the globally practiced crack spread formula, the 3:2:1. Plenty of info on the internet for your reading.

Posted by MC33 > 2018-04-21 19:30 | Report Abuse

Tq gator for translation, as in most s businesses, HY will pass on price increase to consumers. Then margins relate to percentage n certainly relevant in discussion, however absolutelmonetary profits are relevant and if high volume production, any industry will give good profits in the longer term provided management is competent.Correctme if I m wrong,
Does anyone really know how proficient HY s management is .?

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-21 19:30 | Report Abuse

Probability,you cannot minus fixed cost from gross profit so Icon8818 calculation was wrong so must add back 600mln back to the net profit n others to the nett profit which was at least 750mln.

Posted by MC33 > 2018-04-21 19:34 | Report Abuse

Can someone pls post icon8818 calculation again for all to see at this point so e c to refer , tq

Posted by MC33 > 2018-04-21 19:38 | Report Abuse

Accountants pls give revised estimate for Q1 EPS , if any so can win competition n estimates for Q2 , prices set to rise due to Saudi objectives.

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-21 19:41 | Report Abuse

MC33, that Icon8818 is a fake Icon who came out with some nonsensical calculation to mislead readers here. The real Icon8888 posted a blog article to clarify that it was not him.

qqq3 thinks that Icon8818 = probability. Why does probability need to fake an account and repeatitively use that misleading calculation here, only he knows. FYI, probability uses that calculation more often than Icon8818 himself. Very suspicious isnt it?

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-21 19:46 | Report Abuse

Correction:value generated=162.568+83.93-222.18=24.33
Hence for one barrel of crude oil the crack spread=8.11.

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-21 19:51 | Report Abuse

He went back to his kampung with his family so no time for comments

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-21 20:00 | Report Abuse

Polycarp,I am fine,thanks.How are you with so much disputes here?

Posted by WakandaForeva > 2018-04-21 20:04 | Report Abuse

PH wins, reinstates subsidies, how would it impact HY. More demand for petrol?
BN wins, status quo.

Posted by rojakmee > 2018-04-21 20:07 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan is a lousy share, fund manager avoid hengyuan because not paying dividend, even if profit is high, high crack spread, I avoid HY because not paying dividend.

Posted by rojakmee > 2018-04-21 20:09 | Report Abuse

2017 HY was flying high because everyone was thinking they will adopt former Shell policy but not anymore because it is a Chinaman from china company.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-21 20:10 | Report Abuse

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/asias-gasoline-glut-drags-refining-margins-to-3-month-low/63843845

Average refinery profits in Singapore , which act as an Asian benchmark, are down by half from their 2017 highs, to $5.69 a barrel, weighed down by rising crude oil feedstock prices.

Posted by rojakmee > 2018-04-21 20:11 | Report Abuse

My advice better sell HY unless they have the same dividend policy as former Shell.

Posted by MC33 > 2018-04-21 20:14 | Report Abuse

Surely the big guns hedge to a certain degree

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-21 20:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-21 20:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by rojakmee > 2018-04-21 20:24 | Report Abuse

Thank you Probability, 2017 made big with HY, hoping to make another big return with Muda in 2018.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-21 20:26 | Report Abuse

It would be interesting to check what was Hengyuan's EPS in Q3 2016.

........................................................

April 20, 2018, 13:44 IST

Singapore: Gasoline profits for Asia's oil refiners hit their lowest since 2016,

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/asias-gasoline-glut-drags-refining-margins-to-3-month-low/63843845

Asia's gasoline profit margins, known as crack, based on Brent crude oil dived to $5.42 a barrel, the lowest since Aug. 24, 2016. "Margins are getting smashed," said Nevyn Nah, oil products analyst at Energy Aspects in Singapore.

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-21 20:28 | Report Abuse

Probability,then you better compute from revenue collected onwards n show all the expenses then we can accurately derived the net profits.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-21 20:32 | Report Abuse

Jenny...why should i elaborate? Did anyone pay me....

unless you give someone respect...u wont get it in return...

i would like to spend my messages here purely for my own entertainment...

i have no obligations to anyone here

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-21 20:37 | Report Abuse

Prick, stop beating round the bush repeating your generic articles. Rebut my calculation please.

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-21 20:48 | Report Abuse

Here we go again. Same old low class attacks whenever you cant rebut with facts and figures.

—————

Posted by probability > Apr 21, 2018 08:39 PM | Report Abuse

little john...try sucking my cock first....i may feel a little similarity to your mom's style...

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2018-04-21 20:48 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-21 20:52 | Report Abuse

Yawnnnnn... Prick, post something new and credible please

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-21 20:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Poisonivy > 2018-04-21 21:02 | Report Abuse

Heng Yuan Malaysia management so far had deliver promising result.. Crack might be one factor, inventory control, manufacturing matrix are able to maximise and sustain the profit margin for refinery during the good and bad times... If crack is your concern is at rebounding stage, historic seasonal trend May till Oct crack pricing rising mode . First time I feel Trump at times at right track artificial up for all energy and crude price see the tweeter his style a few days later should have action... Crude should be on correction and stalemate stage for a period ....