Posted by dompeilee > 2018-04-21 07:58 | Report Abuse

Many more ikan bilis will be Con yewyinned on Monday...LOL

Posted by gsi723 > 2018-04-21 08:49 | Report Abuse

Nobody would have expect Trump victory then...

Posted by gsi723 > 2018-04-21 08:51 | Report Abuse

Haha... new term in english
>>>

Many more ikan bilis will be “Con yewyinned” on Monday...LOL

Posted by dompeilee > 2018-04-21 09:04 | Report Abuse

It might as well be in the M'sian dictionary coz leopards(esp very ancient ones) never change their spots!

Posted by gator > 2018-04-21 09:04 | Report Abuse

Posted by MC33 > Apr 20, 2018 10:12 PM | Report Abuse

Can’t read Chinese , someone pls translate tq
------

Posted by Newplayer286 > Apr 20, 2018 10:07 PM | Report Abuse

By Donovan【Qn: 大师，Hengyuan是提炼油公司，如果油价继续上涨，成本提高，盈利下降，股价应该下而不是上，对吗？】
最近很多人问了这种问题，我认为他们被其他人的妖言惑众给误导了，因此我用反问的方式来开导他们的智慧、训练他们的思考技巧：问题1- 假设这种妖言惑众的【逻辑】成立的话，那么，试想：2016年的年初至2017年的年尾，油价从每桶30美元上升到每桶60美元，恒源为什么股价从2元飙升到19元（8倍）？问题2- 现今，油价将从每桶60美元上升到我的目标价的每桶100美元至每桶120美元，也是近乎双倍，那么我的恒源目标价我只给19元的2倍（也就是恒源股价=38元）而没给8倍（恒源股价=152元），那请问，我的恒源目标价算是保守还是所谓的夸张？很显然，在金钱、价格的压力下，很多人是不理智的，他们被心理学上的锚定效应 (ANCHORING EFFECT) 愚弄了。

Translation:

Qn: Master, Hengyuan is an oil refinery company. If oil prices continue to rise, costs increase, and profits decline, stock prices should go down rather than up, right?

Recently, many asked such questions. I think they are misled or betrayed by others . Therefore, I shall enlighten their wisdom and train their thinking skills:

Question 1 - Assuming such gossip is logical, then imagine...from the beginning of 2016 to the end of 2017, oil rose from US$30 US per barrel to US$60 US dollars, why did Hengyuan's price soared from 2 ringgit to 19 ringgit (8 times) (when it is supposed to down based on the aforesaid logic)?

Question 2 - The price of oil shall rise from US$60 per barrel to my target price of US$100 to US$120 per barrel, which is almost double, so my Henderson target price is only twice as much at 19 ringgit ( That is my Hengyuan TP stock price = 38 ringgit) and not 8 times (Hengyuan stock price = 152 ringgit), so I ask...is my target price conservative or exaggerated?

Obviously, under pressure of money and price, many become irrational, and are fooled by the psychological anchor effect (ANCHORING EFFECT).

Posted by Lee Yih Yeong > 2018-04-21 09:18 | Report Abuse

CEO of hengyuan please open media to apologies to political party BN for not supporting DAP/opposition party. or else hengyuan share will forever can't rise ,same as supermax.

Posted by cheeyong > 2018-04-21 09:33 | Report Abuse

Heng Yuan profit margin will lower when oil price up...

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2018-04-21 09:43 | Report Abuse

I believe in a rising oil environment there is an inventory gain element

Posted by gator > 2018-04-21 09:51 | Report Abuse

Posted by cheeyong > Apr 21, 2018 09:33 AM | Report Abuse

Heng Yuan profit margin will lower when oil price up...

-----

I suggest u check the charts when crude prices crashed from about US$110 to US$30 during 2014 to 2016 and compare HY prices during the same period. There are some lagging effects and each refinery will have their own operational, management and efficiency metrics but the overall macro picture will give u a correlation between crude prices and their effects on refiners.

Posted by gator > 2018-04-21 09:52 | Report Abuse

correction:

will give u an idea of the correlation between crude prices...

Posted by gator > 2018-04-21 09:53 | Report Abuse

U can also compare the charts and prices when oil rose from Us$30 to current day level.

Posted by dompeilee > 2018-04-21 10:06 | Report Abuse

Use Maybank & a handful of others pakat2 with Petronas to manufacture 'record high' in KLCI & trumpet with propoganda mouthpieces in desperate attempt to secure election.....let's see how stu pid M'sians are lol

Posted by dompeilee > 2018-04-21 10:08 | Report Abuse

52-week high stocks outnumbered by 52-week low stocks by at least 1:20 I should think...

Posted by uptrending > 2018-04-21 11:30 | Report Abuse

ROAD TO PUTRA JAYA IS NOT A DREAM https://blog.limkitsiang.com/2018/04/18/ph-should-target-winning-120-parliament-seats-in-ge14-100-in-peninsular-malaysia-and-20-in-sabah-and-sarawak/

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-21 12:07 | Report Abuse

KYY posts as he sees it.....same as his political views.
Kyy does not need you to buy. That is a given.

Posted by Ubah_is_good > 2018-04-21 12:16 | Report Abuse

If KYY see as good why we cannot? We take him as example bec in i3 he is richest and become our role model.

Posted by polycarp > Apr 21, 2018 11:41 AM | Report Abuse
dompeilee It might as well be in the M'sian dictionary coz leopards(esp very ancient ones) never change their spots!

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

If you are hoping to change the govt better change yrself first. Stop being abusive and the govt will not abusive you in return

Posted by BursaTornado > 2018-04-21 12:27 | Report Abuse

http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=4324&region=mys&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA

Posted by GoodBoy > 2018-04-21 12:41 | Report Abuse

Ever since ancient time, early bird always catches the worm ... not sure about late comers ... don't waste time blaming this n that ... get down to real biz, opportunities awaiting for ppl who are ready ... cheers ...

Posted by GoodBoy > 2018-04-21 12:47 | Report Abuse

KYY may hv more money than everyone here ... but, we all hv much more time n opportunities to make more money than him ... cheers ...

Posted by Donovan > 2018-04-21 12:52 | Report Abuse

Will rebound to 9 soon

Posted by Donovan > 2018-04-21 12:55 | Report Abuse

Long term tp 57

Posted by GoodBoy > 2018-04-21 12:58 | Report Abuse

I m younger than him by more than 30 yrs ... I still hv more than 30 yrs to catch up with him ... with God willing, nothing is impossible ... the same will apply to everyone ... cheers ...

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-21 13:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by GoodBoy > 2018-04-21 13:15 | Report Abuse

Invest based on everyone's plan n strategies ... my simple strategy is trying to double up my money in any investment ... u just need 10 rounds to roll your money from 1k to 1million ... 10k to 10million ... 100k to 100million ... 1million to 1billion ... cheers ...

Posted by gsi723 > 2018-04-21 13:21 | Report Abuse

>>>
Some confused that olil up, refinery profit will automatically shoot up. This is not always the case. Currently the margin become squeeze.
For hibiscus, yes... direct correlation
For com like Sapura, only sentiment improve... whether it get positive cash flow from project execution still questionable

Posted by BursaTornado > 2018-04-21 13:22 | Report Abuse

How to justify TP 57?
TA?

@Donovan Long term tp 57
21/04/2018 12:55

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-21 13:23 | Report Abuse

Remember today the crude price differential gap between Brent and WTI crude has increased from USD 5 to USD 6 per barrel...this is very positive to hengyuan margin and will overcome the small fall in the crack spread loh...!!

Hengyuan is sitting on more than Rm 1 billion inventory, it will benefit tremendously loh....!!

Posted by gsi723 > 2018-04-21 13:25 | Report Abuse

Yup, CI new high... but many other stk nearly 52 weeks low. CI no longer represent wider market but few heavyweight

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-21 13:27 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by GoodBoy > 2018-04-21 13:40 | Report Abuse

@polycrap ... of course it's not easy ... otherwise everyone would be multimillionaire or billionaire already ... cheers ...

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-21 13:43 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BursaTornado > 2018-04-21 13:53 | Report Abuse

Look at how many new vehicle on the road every month.
Still want to naysay refinery?

https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/car-registrations

Posted by GoodBoy > 2018-04-21 13:54 | Report Abuse

@Polycarp ... do not hope to achieve it in a matter days or months ... patience, dedication n hard work needed for many2 yrs, lucky ones may achieve it in 5 or 10 yrs, unlucky ones may not see results even after 20 yrs or in their lifetime ... cheers ...

Posted by dompeilee > 2018-04-21 13:56 | Report Abuse

The last round I dip my toes in @ 8.68 and then 7.73 but the bear overshot the lower price by -22% at the lowest.

Now that I've exited again,I'll be more careful next time! :)

Posted by probability > 2018-04-21 13:57 | Report Abuse

It would be interesting to check what was Hengyuan's EPS in Q3 2016.

........................................................

April 20, 2018, 13:44 IST

Singapore: Gasoline profits for Asia's oil refiners hit their lowest since 2016,

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/asias-gasoline-glut-drags-refining-margins-to-3-month-low/638438

Asia's gasoline profit margins, known as crack, based on Brent crude oil dived to $5.42 a barrel, the lowest since Aug. 24, 2016. "Margins are getting smashed," said Nevyn Nah, oil products analyst at Energy Aspects in Singapore.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-21 13:58 | Report Abuse

and likewise to see Hengyuan EPS before 2015 when oil price is high...even without current 24% Tax.

Posted by GoodBoy > 2018-04-21 13:59 | Report Abuse

Always wait for a good bargain price ... cheers ...

Posted by probability > 2018-04-21 14:08 | Report Abuse

HY had never been able to utilize WTI as proven in Q4 2017, despite having the highest Brent-WTI differential ever due to shutdown of the Forties Pipeline System during this time.

The difference quoted are FOB basis and excludes high transportation cost and Customs tax differences (if any) and most importantly, WTI is not suited for high middle distillate yielding refineries like HY.

Price differential changes by the time WTI is delivered DDP via VLCC due to the long travelling time.

During Q1 2018 differential between Brent & WTI had dropped to a level where WTI is out of the question for any considerations.

Posted by GoodBoy > 2018-04-21 14:08 | Report Abuse

@Polycarp ... up to u to say anything u like ... I hv done it a few rounds already ... cheers ...

Posted by probability > 2018-04-21 14:16 | Report Abuse

Its sad that its going to be a very long time before one can touch this counter again...

........................................

It will be sometime before the sinking Titanic is rediscovered and made use (if any).

2017 was the perfect storm, Hurricane Harvey + Inventory Gain + reduced China exports.

In 2018, everything has reversed except the Inventory gains which are One off gains which will revert to the exact same losses when oil drops back.

Now China has increased its refined product exports by 43% compared 2017...
good luck with hopes on their reduction and, hopes that RAPID would slow down its rapid commissioning plans.

Posted by Lee Yih Yeong > 2018-04-21 14:20 | Report Abuse

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Shells-Profits-Soar-From-Strong-Asian-Demand.html

congrat to hengyuan.. monday fly

Posted by probability > 2018-04-21 14:24 | Report Abuse

of course upstream players profit will soar...they produce the crude barrels selling at increasing Price ma.

Refiners like HY take all the damage from this impact.

thats why people moving to SAPNRG lor....

Posted by Lee Yih Yeong > Apr 21, 2018 02:20 PM | Report Abuse

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Shells-Profits-Soar...

congrat to hengyuan.. monday fly

Posted by dompeilee > 2018-04-21 14:32 | Report Abuse

Can someone answer this Qs : If you-know-who is so rich, why does he need to play margin i.e with borrowed $ incurring high interest??? If he's going to live another 15-16 years at most, why does he need MORE than he already has,earning a safe 3.5% per annum?

Posted by Lee Yih Yeong > 2018-04-21 14:43 | Report Abuse

hengyuan doing both downstream and upstream ?

Posted by uptrending > 2018-04-21 14:45 | Report Abuse

A comparison of the manifesto between BN and PH

https://thecoverage.my/news/comparison-manifesto-barisan-nasional-pakatan-harapan-better/

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-21 14:46 | Report Abuse

dompeilee > Apr 21, 2018 02:32 PM | Report Abuse

Can someone answer this Qs : If you-know-who is so rich, why does he need to play margin i.e with borrowed $ incurring high interest??? If he's going to live another 15-16 years at most, why does he need MORE than he already has,earning a safe 3.5% per annum?
==========

dom...just bear in mind everyone is different.

Posted by uptrending > 2018-04-21 14:52 | Report Abuse

On China Fund

Pakatan Harapan

Create 1 million of top-notched job opportunities, offer free technical training to the unemployed
Reduce 6 million foreign labour to 4 million during first term of office, resolve problem of local workers unable to have pay rise due to high number of foreign workers
Resume potential of ringgit within three years, appoint Bank Negara to draft strategies to avoid over-dependency on import of milk, poultry, vegetables which lead to price increase due to depreciation of ringgit
Review all mega contracts the Barisan Nasional government awarded to foreigners to ensure no corruption and malpractices, continue to attract foreign funds from China and other Asian countries into Malaysia
Continue to develop SMEs which contribute 65% of employment in the country, supply subsidy package for SMEs to drive the transformation of Industrial 4.0
Ensure outcome of investment made by China funds can be shared by all people especially local bumiputras and SMEs of all races

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-21 14:52 | Report Abuse

dom...just bear in mind everyone is different.

and I don't even think make or lose couple of millions means much to him except his adrenaline.

he can lose 90% and still have enough left over ...3 meals no worries....can you, dom?


look at Jaks, Sendai...and even HY....it looks like he is playing a long game....does it look like a short game to you?

Posted by dompeilee > 2018-04-21 14:53 | Report Abuse

Y are u greenhorns letting this kind of degenerate gambler be your role model?

I see one elderly Malay man,looks to be in his eighties with wispy white hair, very wizened & wrinkled, but well-dressed, likely in the same generation at many AGMs I attend. Once I was standing behind him @ PetDag shareholder registration & I watched over his shoulder as he filled out his name & then shareholding - 100,000 shares. I believe he has held this 100k PetDag shares for years...

This kind of investor is my role model. Not the degenerate low life gambler who tries to use his $ to sucker newbies into donating to him!

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-21 14:56 | Report Abuse

dom...one make his fortune from sharemarket....the other, who knows?