Posted by BursaTornado > 2018-04-22 16:08 | Report Abuse

Thus, Petronm PD will produce a lot more low sulphur waxy residue, which is less valuable.

"Besides retail marketing, the company also owns an 88,000bpd refinery located
in Port Dickson, Malaysia with a Nelson Complexity Index of 3. The refinery is
capable of producing gasoline, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene
and low sulphur waxy residue (LWSR). The refinery has an average utilisation
rate of c.50% due to the unfavourable economics of LSWR which, in turn is due
to its low complexity rate. The company is 73.4%-owned by Petron Corp, the
largest oil refining and marketing company in the Philippines.
"

https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/investingnote-production-webbucket/attachments/d3ce08ce26504a72b5895693fa156d8b0bcf7a56.pdf?1509757663

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 16:09 | Report Abuse

walao...PetronM must be aiming to use Dubai Crude.

Only with that they can barely compete with RAPID - the soon to be KING of refining in the region.

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-22 16:10 | Report Abuse

An old rich man took a second wife 20 years his junior despite of having 6 six school going children by the first wife.The old man will let the second wife keep the car keys of the first wife who needed permission from the second wife whenever she went out.,The first wife had to swallow all the humiliation thrown at her by the second woman.
One day while bathing this old man slipped n his head hit the long bathtub n died.
So for many years these two women fought in court for the properties of the husband,making their wives n children's life difficult.What tragedies being caused by the lustful man leaving a broken family after his death.

Posted by BursaTornado > 2018-04-22 16:14 | Report Abuse

This type of refinery has a lower crack spread.
Therefore lower gross profit margin.
Most of the news reported by media were meant for this type of refinery.
That's why recently Petronm EPS is lower than HY.

Posted by Halite > 2018-04-22 16:15 | Report Abuse

i see a drama here
once upon a great lover turned into a great hater

never fall in love with a counter that the satay man can't tell you how much is the EPS for the coming QR, not 100% correct but not too far off

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-22 16:15 | Report Abuse

NEW YORK: Oil prices, already at more than three-year highs, may be about to jump further.

And, to JPMorgan Chase & Co, crude-related assets are starting to look attractive.
Brent oil could spike to US$80 a barrel if the US and European Union reimpose sanctions on Iran and as Western powers expand the scope of the Syrian civil war, JPMorgan strategists, led by John Normand, wrote in a note.
While this might ordinarily be seen like a time to avoid cyclical assets, the recent “tax gift” to US corporations and consumers makes it an opportunity to own petro assets, they said.

New Syrian hostilities are likely to have a muted effect on oil, however, since the nation’s production has already fallen so deeply due to the seven-year-long war.
A possible decision in May on Iran sanctions may be “the start of a process that maintains low-intensity stress on oil markets that can deliver higher prices and above-average volatility,” the strategists wrote, comparing it to the Arab Spring of 2011 rather than the major oil shocks of 1973, 1979 and 1990.

The forecast follows others calling this a good time to own energy stocks. Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheets has noted that energy “has historically been a very consistent late-cycle outperformer.”

Brian Barish of Cambiar Investors and James Paulsen of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management have pointed to energy shares having been out of favour in recent years. Net bullish positions in Brent futures reached a record in the week ended April 10. — Bloomberg

REMEMBER THE BRENT & WTI HAS A USD 6 PER BARREL DIFFERENTIAL, THIS WILL BENEFIT HY MARGIN LOH...!!
AS RAIDER SAYS HENGYUAN DEFINITELY CAN USE WTI...WHICH TRADE AT USD 6 PER BARREL BELOW BRENT AT THIS MOMENT, BUT SHOULD HY USE WTI NOW ??
NOT NECESSARY LOH....!! IN FACT HY CAN USED DUBAI BASED CRUDE WHICH IS EVEN CHEAPER THAN WTI BY USD 2 TO 4 PER BARREL LOH...!!

HOWEVER THERE IS TRADEOFF, IF U USE HIGHER HEAVIER CRUDE LOH...BUT DEFINITELY WITH CURRENT HIGH COST DIFF BRENT, IT IS BENEFICIAL & WORTHWHILE TO USE OTHER CRUDES LOH....!!

PLEASE RE READ THE ANNUAL REPORT OF HENGYUAN FOR 2012,2013, 2014, 2015, IT WILL GIVE U AN IDEA OF WHAT TYPE OF CRUDE HENGYUAN CAN USE LOH...!!

DO NOT LISTEN TO CONMAN PROBABILITY WHO MISLEAD U LOH....!!

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 16:16 | Report Abuse

China's is blasting its refined products output.... a perfect storm is brewing.

All those refiner who cant use Dubai Crude will be wiped out soon. Brent to Dubai crude differential itself is already reaching 4 USD/brl.....

Brent price is expected to go up even higher due to IMO 2020.

Posted by BursaTornado > 2018-04-22 16:19 | Report Abuse

When you fall in love with a girl.
But the girl doesn't love you.
Love will become hate.
Normal human behaviour.

Kikiki.

@Halite i see a drama here
once upon a great lover turned into a great hater

never fall in love with a counter that the satay man can't tell you how much is the EPS for the coming QR, not 100% correct but not too far off

22/04/2018 16:15

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 16:20 | Report Abuse

LOL! I need not accuse anyone a conman......

Facts once presented need not further debates on its trust-ability.
It is there for one to verify...

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 16:23 | Report Abuse

To appreciate something bad unknowingly is forgiven...

But to allow something bad knowingly to be misled and exploited by others...its not right.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 16:26 | Report Abuse

One has a gain by promoting a bad apple as a good one...the other has nothing to gain by telling its a bad apple.

One is trying to sell it to you....the other is telling you not to buy.

............................................................

It should be an obvious common sense whom would have a higher level of sincerity....

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-22 16:32 | Report Abuse

REMEMBER PETRON CAN ONLY USE LIKE SWEET CRUDE WHICH TRADE ABOUT USD 3 TO 4 ABOVE BRENT LOH....!!

THE MARGIN OF PETRON REFINERY WILL BE AFFECTED LOH....WITH BRENT TRADE AT A PREMIUM OF USD 6 ABOVE WTI LOH...!!

AS A COMPARISON OF HY TYPE OF CRUDE V PETRON TYPE OF CRUDE THE COST DIFFERENTIAL IS ABOVE USD 10 PER BARREL LOH....!!

Posted by BursaTornado > Apr 22, 2018 04:06 PM | Report Abuse

Petronm PD does not has a catalytic cracker.

"Petron Malaysia plans to invest USD 3.5 billion to expand the capacity of its Port Dickson refinery in Malaysia by 90,000 barrels per day (bpd), which will boost its capacity to 178,000 bpd.
The complex is equipped with a crude distillation unit, a naphtha hydrotreating unit, two semi-regeneration reformer units, and a kerosene hydrotreating unit."

COMPARE HY V PETRONAS PENGERANG RAPID REFINERY, THE COST OF PRODUCTION OF 1 BARREL OF REFINE OIL COST DEPRECIATION OF RM 58 PER BARREL ALONE EVEN EXCLUDING OTHER COST LOH...!!

THAT MEANS PENGERANG RAPID...NEEDS VERY HIGH CRACK SPREAD IN ORDER TO SURVIVE & MAKE GOOD PROFIT LOH...!!
THIS AUGUR WELL WITH HENGYUAN AS THE MOST COST EFFECTIVE & EFFICIENT PRODUCER LOH....!!

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-22 16:55 | Report Abuse

What we are seeing is crude oil price going up. Who’s buying? You? Me? No, we cant do anything with raw crude oil.

Refineries are buying. Why are refineries buying? Because the demand for their products like petrol and diesel are strong. Bear in mind that prices of petrol and diesel are also going up. Last night i showed that current crack spread is good.

This is the chart of Mogas 95 price. I have taken a screenshot from CME website. You will see that Mogas 95 price have shot up significantly.
https://ibb.co/nKRNOc

This is the price chart of gasoil (diesel). Also a screenshot from CME website. The price of gasoil have also shot up very high.
https://ibb.co/cOmQ9H

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-22 16:59 | Report Abuse

Crude oil price goes up does not necessarily mean profit of refineries will go down. If the percentage prices of petrol and diesel go up higher than percentage increase in crude oil, refineries make more money. Both are not directly inversely correlated.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 17:04 | Report Abuse

Everyone knows whats was the average crack spread of Mogas95, Gasoil in Q4 2017.....

it was well published by Dr. David

...................................

but everyone also know the margins per barrel of HY in Q4 2017 no where matches these figures...

..................................

Instead of banging your head on "why the results did not match" you'd rather question the rigid theories-model you had made as per your beliefs earlier..............

question your model, not the results.

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-22 17:04 | Report Abuse

Similarly, if price of crude oil falls, it doesnt mean hengyuan will make more money. There is no point having low cost of raw materials if demand for petrol and diesel is low (which in turn drives prices of petrol and diesel also low).

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-22 17:17 | Report Abuse

davidtslim? Maybe he has erred somewhere in his modelling. If his average crack spread is accurate, he wouldnt have ran a significant deviation from the actual results. Meaning your claim that ‘everyone knows what was the average crack spread of Mogas95, Gasoil in Q3 2017..... it was well published by Dr. David’ is fundamentally wrong.

The concept of crack spread cannot be wrong because that is fundamentally the gross profit of a refinery. So lets not deviate from that. GP is GP.

If any analysts got their results wrong, it is because they have miscalculated the crack spread. And not that their use of crack spread approach is wrong.

Btw, i appreciate the effort and work of davidtslim.

—————

Posted by probability > Apr 22, 2018 05:04 PM | Report Abuse

Everyone knows whats was the average crack spread of Mogas95, Gasoil in Q4 2017.....

it was well published by Dr. David

...................................

but everyone also know the margins per barrel of HY in Q4 2017 no where matches these figures...

..................................

Instead of banging your head on "why the results did not match" you'd rather question the rigid theories-model you had made as per your beliefs earlier..............

question your model, not the results.

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-22 17:18 | Report Abuse

Don't worry one day I will be somebody's wife because in paradise earth I can live forever if God permits to stay there.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 17:21 | Report Abuse

many have not investigated the reason behind Q3 2016 EPS observance...

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-22 17:24 | Report Abuse

My stories is about the wrong doing of husbands will cause miseries to the women they once love.Whether it through divorce or polygamy marriages problems created cannot be solved if you have children to take of.

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-22 17:41 | Report Abuse

At the right time I will marry even I am 100 years old.

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-22 17:48 | Report Abuse

To be in love is a sweet feelimg which can uplft one's exquisite delight n joy.To achieve it you must appreciate your mate n accept her limits n shortcomings as well as her virtues.

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-22 17:59 | Report Abuse

I am not interested in rabots but humans as we won't old n die instead we will get younger younger until our skins are not babies,fresh,smooth n tender because God will give us prefect health over a thousand years.
With good tempers are human cells will die so quickly n our health will improve with proper food.I constantly applied honey n pearl powder on face besides eating white carrots,tumeric,milk,green vegetables,fish pork n eggs to keep myself healthy.

Posted by BursaTornado > 2018-04-22 18:00 | Report Abuse

Half of RAPID throughput will be used as feedstock for petrochemical.
The other half for gasoline, diesel and etc.

"Southern Johor was chosen as the location for the project due to its proximity to deepwater port facilities and regional demand centres. The location enables easy transport of finished products to the market. The complex will cover an area of 2,000ha, and include a crude oil refinery and petrochemical complex capable of processing 300,000 barrels per day (bpd). These two projects will collectively produce 7.7 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of differentiated and speciality chemicals such as synthetic rubbers and high-grade polymers."


https://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/projects/petronas-rapid-project-malaysia/

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-22 18:01 | Report Abuse

Correction :until our skins are like babies,smooth...

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-22 18:05 | Report Abuse

Can we agree on the following assumptions for Hengyuan for the FY 2018?

1. Its earnings will be less than 2017.

2. Its profit margins will be less than 2017.

3. Its downtime will be at least 1 1/2 months for the upgrading.

4. Its borrowings will still remain as high as in 2017.

5. Its cash levels will be lower than 2017.

6. Its capex for 2018 will be at least RM 800 million.

7. Its revenues will be lower than 2017.

8. Its FCFF and FCFE will still be anaemic.

9. It is going to be difficult for it to pay meaningful dividends for 2018.


[Meaningful dividends mean a DPO of 30% to 70%.]


Can we also make these assumptions?

1. Its revenues may be closer to those in 2015 and 2016.

2. Its net profit margins (after tax of 25%) will be closer to those in 2015 and 2016 (that is about 3%).
\
3. That its EPS for 2018 is nearer 130 sen per share.

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-22 18:06 | Report Abuse

My iPhone is faulty,words like 'not'can jump to another sentence,then 'like' can disappear from the sentence.Have to do correction.

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-22 18:10 | Report Abuse

Polycarp,pls don't match me with demusangking,he is not my piece of meat,not spiritual at all.

Posted by Jururawat > 2018-04-22 18:11 | Report Abuse

Comments without deleting - gentlemen
Bullxxhit many like farting and delete - kaki jilat pantai

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-22 18:13 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Investor48 > 2018-04-22 18:16 | Report Abuse

This forum really steady lah
Talk about refineries, politics and now even relationship..

Hehe...

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-22 18:18 | Report Abuse

Since nobody wanted to entertain you, why not i do.

Per Q3 2016 announcement, management explained that lower profit was a result of lower product prices and lower sales volume. You may read it on your own to double confirm. It is public information on Bursa’s website.

From the charts i posted above, product prices have increased significantly. Hence, Q3 2016 is on totally different platform from now.

There. End of another spin story of yours. Please find a new bad thing to write about hengyuan.

—————

Posted by probability > Apr 22, 2018 05:21 PM | Report Abuse

many have not investigated the reason behind Q3 2016 EPS observance

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-22 18:19 | Report Abuse

3iii,I agree with you,my mum and DSD often argued bit my dad declare he loved her.
But my ideal marriage is less arguments but lots of jokes instead of quarrels.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-22 18:20 | Report Abuse

>>>Posted by deMusangking > Apr 22, 2018 06:16 PM | Report Abuse

3iii, fanny jeannie alredi rejected you!!! why still want to talk to her!!!!!!!!<<<



I didn't know that she is even here.

Just general statements which some may find useful.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-22 18:28 | Report Abuse

>>>> Posted by Fam Jenny > Apr 22, 2018 06:19 PM | Report Abuse

3iii,I agree with you,my mum and DSD often argued bit my dad declare he loved her.
But my ideal marriage is less arguments but lots of jokes instead of quarrels.<<<<<



If everyone learn how to communicate well, their relationships will be better.

A good relationship is always based on good communications.



Rather obvious and yet many do not know this simple fact.




Good communications:

"I love you." 3 most important simple words. Use this liberally.

"I am worried about your late nights. I have prepared some soups waiting for you for the last 2 hours."

"I was thinking something might have happened to you. Now that you are back, I am so happy. Would you like to have a cup of milo?"

"I am so happy you phoned to let me know you will be late. Thanks, that was very thoughtful, otherwise, I would be up the whole night worrying."



Bad communications:

"You are a terrible person. You are always shouting and not listening."

"You are late. Why can't you phone me when you are going to be late? Damn you."

"FXXK, you are so stupid. You never learn. You are always repeating the same mistakes again and again."

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-22 18:29 | Report Abuse

Demudanking,you are a instigator,twist the subject matter to cause enemity.Your heart condition is wayward n vicious.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-22 18:30 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-22 18:34 | Report Abuse

There is a musang without its tail running wild in this forum. Be careful. :-)



{Now, that is good communciation. :-) ]

Posted by BursaTornado > 2018-04-22 18:35 | Report Abuse

Old story

"Under the new managed float system for RON95 petrol, pump prices would be determined by a 10-day average of fuel prices in international traded markets, plus fixed profit margins for refineries and retailers.

Pump prices will be reviewed on a monthly basis and there will no longer be a subsidy component under the new system.

The new fuel pricing mechanism was announced yesterday by the Domestic Trade, Cooperatives and Consumerism Minister Hasan Malek and is effective Dec 1.

The final pump price will be based on the Mean of Platts Singapore benchmark.

Hasan said if there is a significant change in prices in the first 19 days of each given month, then the average of the last 10 or 11 days of the month will be taken to calculate the final retail price.

Included in the final retail price on top of the Mean of Platts 10-day average is a fixed operational cost recovery factor, a fixed margin for oil companies and a fixed profit margin per unit for petrol dealers, a Pemandu director, Ku Kok Peng, explained.
"

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/281251

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-22 18:35 | Report Abuse

>>>>deMusangking i thk 3ii is interested in funny jeannie wealth!!!! not for her beauty!! becos one look will cause u to faint!!!!!

kikikik
22/04/2018 18:33<<<<


Super wealthy and married happily to the most beautiful lovely lady in the world.

With my low expectation in life, everything is just wonderful and joyous.

Posted by BursaTornado > 2018-04-22 18:36 | Report Abuse

"KPDNKK minister Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin previously announced the weekly managed float system for the retail price of petrol and diesel to go into effect in April, replacing the previous monthly float system."

http://malaysiandigest.com/features/707002-rm2-31-highest-ron95-price-since-it-was-introduced.html

Posted by BursaTornado > 2018-04-22 18:37 | Report Abuse

See the different????

Posted by Investor48 > 2018-04-22 18:39 | Report Abuse

Lower your expectations
That's how a relationship last..

Hehe...

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-22 18:41 | Report Abuse

Demusangking,always jealous of me trying to disgrace my looks but accusing men of loving my money.In fact 3iii is never interested in me yet said so,upside down brain,sot sot person without truthfulness.

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-22 18:45 | Report Abuse

3iii,I feel happy for your fortunate wife.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-22 18:46 | Report Abuse

>>>>Posted by Fam Jenny > Apr 22, 2018 06:41 PM | Report Abuse

Demusangking,always jealous of me trying to disgrace my looks but accusing men of loving my money.In fact 3iii is never interested in me yet said so,upside down brain,sot sot person without truthfulness.<<<<


Good communication also means telling the truth.

If the truth is unpleasant, you can always express this "pleasantly" too.



Ha ha ha

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-22 18:47 | Report Abuse

Never resort to profanity.

You do not need to do this to express like so.

Just like many in this counter who were licked by the giraffe.



:-)

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-22 18:49 | Report Abuse

>>>>
Fam Jenny 3iii,I feel happy for your fortunate wife.
22/04/2018 18:45<<<


She is a great woman.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-22 18:52 | Report Abuse

the cause of larger than expected fluctuations in refinery profits.......


“The price of petroleum products at the retail level is not directly related to the crude oil price. The retail price closely follows the price of refined products, which may vary for different product types,” said Tan Sri Dr Mohd Irwan Serigar Abdullah in an NST article in January 2016.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-22 18:57 |

Post removed.Why?