Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-22 19:01 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-22 19:09 | Report Abuse

the cause of larger than expected fluctuations in refinery profits.......


“The price of petroleum products at the retail level is not directly related to the crude oil price. The retail price closely follows the price of refined products, which may vary for different product types,” said Tan Sri Dr Mohd Irwan Serigar Abdullah in an NST article in January 2016.

what it means is very clear and simple...its a road to investment success....buy when you believe it is low enough, keep and sell when you believe you have make enough money......

looks like a formula for printing money.............

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-22 19:17 | Report Abuse

y polycarp > Apr 22, 2018 07:08 PM | Report Abuse

3111 the most important thing in a marriage is trust and you talk to each other.
"Do not commit adultery".
===========

good advice only a good girl can give.

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-22 19:22 | Report Abuse

Which is why hengyuan has such a large storage capacity. Look at the value of their inventories. It is huge!

Refining business is not only oil in, oil out. There is a lot of business strategy play involved. This is a commodity business, not 7-11 or Starbucks.

—————

Posted by qqq3 > Apr 22, 2018 07:09 PM | Report Abuse

the cause of larger than expected fluctuations in refinery profits.......


“The price of petroleum products at the retail level is not directly related to the crude oil price. The retail price closely follows the price of refined products, which may vary for different product types,” said Tan Sri Dr Mohd Irwan Serigar Abdullah in an NST article in January 2016.

what it means is very clear and simple...its a road to investment success....buy when you believe it is low enough, keep and sell when you believe you have make enough money......

looks like a formula for printing money.............

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-22 19:44 | Report Abuse

Adultery is not allowed in marriage n the innocent party can have the rights to divorce n free to remarry again without sinning.But whoever marries the guilty party is committing adultery according to the scriptures.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-22 19:50 | Report Abuse

by Fam Jenny > Apr 22, 2018 07:44 PM | Report Abuse

Adultery is not allowed in marriage n the innocent party can have the rights to divorce n free to remarry again without sinning.But whoever marries the guilty party is committing adultery according to the scriptures.
=========

we are Chinese..As Chinese I believe all marriages can work as long as no adultery. ...money, properties, habits, characters, beauty, ulginess, none of these are the deal breakers in the absence of adultery.

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-22 19:54 | Report Abuse

All my brothers n sister never divorce n they have happy marriages.

Posted by Fam Jenny > 2018-04-22 19:57 | Report Abuse

The trust is lost n the hurt lasts forever.

Posted by moneypedia > 2018-04-22 21:09 | Report Abuse

wat the ..... happen to this forum, relationship also discuss in here.....need to use bob marley song la no woman no cruel
eh sengaja silap no woman no cry...

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 21:23 | Report Abuse

Occam's razor (or Ockham's razor) is a principle from philosophy. Suppose there exist two explanations for an occurrence. In this case the simpler one is usually better. Another way of saying it is that the more assumptions you have to make, the more unlikely an explanation is.
.............................................................

CRACK SPREAD drop by 4 USD/brl now from 10.5 USD/brl in 2017 (without hurricane effect which shot it to 15 USD/brl almost 1.5 month) to 6.5 USD/brl. Those who closely monitor chart would definitely agree on that.

The report below is inline to the above estimate:

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/asias-gasoline-glut-drags-refining-margins-to-3-month-low/63843845

Extract from above:

Average refinery profits in Singapore , which act as an Asian benchmark, are down by half from their 2017 highs, to $5.69 a barrel.

..............................................................

anyone CARE & DARE to find out the implications on EPS going forward?

.............................................................

YOU CAN EVEN TAKE OUT THE INVENTORY BULLSHIT HERE AS CLAIMED BY SOME

IMPORTANT THING IS TAKE NOTE THAT "1 USD/BRL CHANGE" RESULTS WITH 160M IMPACT ON GROSS PROFIT PER ANNUM.
.....................................................


Posted by Icon8818 > Apr 7, 2018 07:00 PM | Report Abuse

Gross Profit for 2017 was 1430M

Take out inventory Gain of 400M in 2017,
Gross Profit becomes:
= 1030M


Consider Inventory loss of at least 100M,
Gross Profit becomes:
= 930M

Consider Fixed cost of 150M per qtr x 4 qtrs per year:
= 600M


PBT for 2018 without any shutdown & upgrade
= 330 M

PAT for 2018 without any shutdown & upgrade
= 250M

EPS for whole year 2018 = 83 cents

(considering the same exceptional refining margin in 2017 - Hurricane Harvey)
................................................................

This year 2018 i heard no Hurricane Harvey coming.....only MTA Shutdown & Upgrade work.

Posted by Newplayer286 > 2018-04-22 21:26 | Report Abuse

https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/dubai/libya-oil-output-drops-by-70000-100000-bd-after-26946523

Posted by Jururawat > 2018-04-22 21:47 | Report Abuse

Well said, probability

Posted by SmartyAlek > 2018-04-22 22:02 | Report Abuse

Goreng should start soon

Posted by Dcmh > 2018-04-22 22:05 | Report Abuse

Kyy profit from hyc all gone to dap. This counter dead duck n no more active in foreseeable future

Posted by SpicyMcDeluxe > 2018-04-22 22:23 | Report Abuse

Best place to watch shows along Hengyuen keyboard warriors .Muahahahah

Posted by Jerry Yip > 2018-04-22 22:38 | Report Abuse

Kikikikikikikikikiki

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 22:42 | Report Abuse

Forget about planned shutdown, what about unplanned shutdown?

Before the upgrade work commence, there would be many intermittent short shutdowns to facilitate tie in locations, to clear obstructions to the new upgrade plant facility.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-22 22:51 | Report Abuse

Why must they be unplanned shutdown leh ??

How u know got unplanned shutdown leh ??

This is what a spinner, will do to create negative news loh...!!

Even in 2015, the shutdown time is not that high, all the work is carried out during the planned shutdown time mah....!!

Planned shutdown every 3 yrs for maintenance is nothing new loh, hengyuan had been doing it the past 60 yrs loh...!!

Spinner probability make it out like a big deal loh...!!

Posted by probability > Apr 22, 2018 10:42 PM | Report Abuse

Forget about planned shutdown, what about unplanned shutdown?

Before the upgrade work commence, there would be many intermittent short shutdowns to facilitate tie in locations, to clear obstructions to the new upgrade plant facility.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-22 23:05 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockraider > Apr 22, 2018 11:04 PM | Report Abuse X

ERRORS in computation by ICON 8818 loh....!!

Below are to key critical success factors to consider loh...!!

Estimating hengyuan earnings:
Average Crack spread 2018 lower by about USD 1 to 1.5 per barrel compare to 2017.

However this make up by higher margin of price differentiation between Brent v WTI...of average more than USD 4.5 per barrel...translating to increase margin of about USD 1.5 per barrel.

Increase in sales vol of refined petroleum for Hengyuan 5%

Exceptional gain...in inventory for Hengyuan about Rm 50m

Exceptional gain...in forex due to USD about Rm 30m.

Additional cost on planned shutdown about Rm 30m, which include the loss of production being factored in loh...!!

Higher cost of interest about Rm 15m.

Additional tax of 24% on profit loh.....!!

Based on the info above...the Eps of hengyuan pa work up to roughly Rm 2.00 per share loh....!!

Below is an example of wrong estimation loh:

Occam's razor (or Ockham's razor) is a principle from philosophy. Suppose there exist two explanations for an occurrence. In this case the simpler one is usually better. Another way of saying it is that the more assumptions you have to make, the more unlikely an explanation is.
.............................................................

CRACK SPREAD drop by 4 USD/brl now from 10.5 USD/brl in 2017 (without hurricane effect which shot it to 15 USD/brl almost 1.5 month) to 6.5 USD/brl. Those who closely monitor chart would definitely agree on that.

The report below is inline to the above estimate:

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/asias-gas...

Extract from above:

Average refinery profits in Singapore , which act as an Asian benchmark, are down by half from their 2017 highs, to $5.69 a barrel.

..............................................................

anyone CARE & DARE to find out the implications on EPS going forward?

.............................................................

YOU CAN EVEN TAKE OUT THE INVENTORY BULLSHIT HERE AS CLAIMED BY SOME

IMPORTANT THING IS TAKE NOTE THAT "1 USD/BRL CHANGE" RESULTS WITH 160M IMPACT ON GROSS PROFIT PER ANNUM.
.....................................................


Posted by Icon8818 > Apr 7, 2018 07:00 PM | Report Abuse

Gross Profit for 2017 was 1430M

Take out inventory Gain of 400M in 2017,
Gross Profit becomes:
= 1030M


Consider Inventory loss of at least 100M,
Gross Profit becomes:
= 930M

Consider Fixed cost of 150M per qtr x 4 qtrs per year:
= 600M


PBT for 2018 without any shutdown & upgrade
= 330 M

PAT for 2018 without any shutdown & upgrade
= 250M

EPS for whole year 2018 = 83 cents

(considering the same exceptional refining margin in 2017 - Hurricane Harvey)
................................................................

This year 2018 i heard no Hurricane Harvey coming.....only MTA Shutdown & Upgrade work.

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-22 23:20 | Report Abuse

Probability,

For the 8 million th time, this inventory gain calculation is wrong! Hengyuan DID NOT earn inventory gain of RM400m. Told you many times already, accounting doesnt work that way. You want to continue claiming that you engineers know how the calculations are done, fine. I wont challenge that. But when it comes to accounting, you are technically wrong.

Bad news for you - accounts are prepared by accountants based on accounting standards, not based on engineering logic. You can argue until the cows come home, your logic will never be reflected in the accounts because accounting wise you are wrong.

Salah! Salah! Salah!

—————

Posted by Icon8818 > Apr 7, 2018 07:00 PM | Report Abuse

Gross Profit for 2017 was 1430M

Take out inventory Gain of 400M in 2017,
Gross Profit becomes:
= 1030M

Posted by FutureEyes > 2018-04-22 23:28 | Report Abuse

Probability is right. I had predicted Q2-17 and Q3-17 EPS correctly based on this assumption.

Q4-17 had deviated significantly from my estimate due to 2 USD/brl refining margin reduction in Q4 compared to Q3, Tax exclusion and maintenance costs.

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-22 23:44 | Report Abuse

My apologies to FutureEyes if this suspicion is not true.

qqq3 thinks that Icon8818 is probability pretending to be Icon8888. Many people suspect the same.

Is FutureEyes also probability pretending to be ColdEye?

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 23:55 | Report Abuse

aiyo..people already say methodology already predicted correctly...still want to attack the person meh? never end leh...kiki

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-23 00:00 | Report Abuse

but what about q4...your prediction is a disaster mah ??

Posted by FutureEyes > Apr 22, 2018 11:28 PM | Report Abuse

Probability is right. I had predicted Q2-17 and Q3-17 EPS correctly based on this assumption.

Q4-17 had deviated significantly from my estimate due to 2 USD/brl refining margin reduction in Q4 compared to Q3, Tax exclusion and maintenance costs.

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-23 00:01 | Report Abuse

You continue believing your ‘engineers rule the world’ view ok.

I am sure if you want the sun to rise from the west tmrw, because you are probability-the-engineer, the sun will definitely rise from the west.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-23 00:01 | Report Abuse

the reason why u did badly in q4...bcos your methodlogy has missed out many gaps mah....!!

Not easy to predict qtr by qtr loh....!!

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-23 00:10 | Report Abuse

Raider,

Pple say the methodology is correct means correct lah. Same method got 2 quarters correct. 4Q use same method but actual results different means hengyuan accountants wrong lah.

—————

Posted by stockraider > Apr 23, 2018 12:00 AM | Report Abuse

but what about q4...your prediction is a disaster mah ??

Posted by mneo > 2018-04-23 00:21 | Report Abuse

Strange..... I wonder if Probability ever say Q3-17 EPS is high due to Hurricane(thought he say WTI replacing Brent?)? This FutureEyes comment is also doubtful....

Probability's hypothesis is never correct.....He is so wrong each time that actually he is meant to show his hypothesis are all wrong (LOL).....

Posted by FutureEyes > Apr 22, 2018 11:28 PM | Report Abuse

Probability is right. I had predicted Q2-17 and Q3-17 EPS correctly based on this assumption.

Q4-17 had deviated significantly from my estimate due to 2 USD/brl refining margin reduction in Q4 compared to Q3, Tax exclusion and maintenance costs.

Posted by John_Lee > 2018-04-23 00:40 | Report Abuse

I have to admit i am really quite free now. So i looked up FutureEyes and Icon8818 comments and compare against Probability’s writing style. This is so funny. All 3 are the same. The most glaring similarity is the way all 3 present their calculation. Exactly the same. Not only that, all 3 repeat the same ‘facts’.

Probability. Hahahaha. You created accounts to agree with your own comments. And you did it a few times. Hahahaha. And then there was one you called yourself bro. Hilarious. This is some seriously funny stuff.

Posted by probability > 2018-04-23 00:46 | Report Abuse

aiyo John...you are so intelligent leh...kikiki

Posted by JokerT > 2018-04-23 01:33 | Report Abuse

tomorrow will up... happy collect

Posted by 3iii > 2018-04-23 07:40 | Report Abuse

>>>> Posted by JokerT > Apr 23, 2018 01:33 AM | Report Abuse

tomorrow will up... happy collect<<<<


Irrational.

Tomorrow up. ....will collect.
Tomorrow down. ....will sell.


My friend, you should buy your shares as if you are buying your groceries. :-)

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-04-23 08:44 | Report Abuse

are you ready for BN~

Posted by Totalpackage > 2018-04-23 08:44 | Report Abuse

last time he says it's a predictable business... why now not easy to predict???

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-04-23 08:47 | Report Abuse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOPjfqPPbbg

yes~

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-04-23 08:48 | Report Abuse

TP RM42 intact~

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-04-23 08:54 | Report Abuse

what double head....i only got 3 wings

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-04-23 08:54 | Report Abuse

and two leg~

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-04-23 09:03 | Report Abuse

aiya....i also cari makan only...

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-04-23 09:10 | Report Abuse

dun worry 822 solid

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-04-23 09:12 | Report Abuse

dun worry 814 solid

Posted by victory015 > 2018-04-23 09:12 | Report Abuse

getting lower to rm 7.

Posted by rchi > 2018-04-23 09:13 | Report Abuse

dragon,part 3 journey to antartica dah mulai.

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-04-23 09:15 | Report Abuse

just buy and huat

Posted by traderman > 2018-04-23 09:17 | Report Abuse

will hold at 8.15. trust me

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-04-23 09:17 | Report Abuse

ok fund release~

Posted by Ekkram > 2018-04-23 09:18 | Report Abuse

Price can only stop going down if people stop selling it cheap cheap..

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-04-23 09:18 | Report Abuse

run lo, tp 5.08

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-04-23 09:19 | Report Abuse

rm8 duwan sell, want sell rm5?

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-04-23 09:20 | Report Abuse

FIRE~