Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-16 22:29 | Report Abuse

johnmasino, The CFO did say during the 2019 AGM that the JHDP will contribute 80-100m to Jaks but it also said "more than 100m" during the 2018 AGM. He did not provide further explanation. I think he could be taking Mong Duong II's distribution as a guide but that is just my opinion.

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-05-16 22:31 | Report Abuse

So using Philip's logic of using the most conservative figure in the alleged claims of absence of concrete evidence, the PBB analyst was bloody dead wrong when he overestimated JAKS shares by more than 500%!!! LOL...AHAHAAHAHA

The PBB analyst should be shot for misleading so many people into buying JAKS even at RM0.40 when according to BOD's guidance, JAKS profit is just a paltry RM14 million with JDHP's profits..


AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Joke of the Year..LOL

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-16 22:41 | Report Abuse

john.... sslee result of $100 million is close to my own estimation based on 12% IRR...on $600 million investment of course I believe

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-16 22:43 | Report Abuse

john sounds as desperate as DK... john u going bankrupt if Jaks don't perform

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-16 22:46 | Report Abuse

3qeight3 ...just show ur estimation on paper lah ...talk 3 talk 4 no use one ...if like that i also can say my own estimation based on 12% IRR is circa 101 million ....tuiiii

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-05-16 22:47 | Report Abuse

qqq33333333:- don't be a coward and answer my question:

Why the hell would JDHP earn less than half of what Vinh Tan is earning when JDHP costs more to built?

Why should JDHP's earnings be just a paltry RM100 million when according to Vinh Tan's annual result, JDHP could very likely generate a similar result!

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-05-16 22:48 | Report Abuse

johnmasino:- if you can't back up your silly claims in light of solid, concrete evidence from Vinh Tan's earning, then I have nothing to say to you..

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-16 22:51 | Report Abuse

me? someone even posted Vietnam Guidance on Ipp.

of course o believe my estimation

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-16 22:54 | Report Abuse

tai lin gong

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-16 23:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-16 23:04 | Report Abuse

if you want me to delete above post so that its easier to cheat newbies just say so and I will delete it immediately

no worries

:)

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-16 23:09 | Report Abuse

yet another one

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-16 23:15 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-16 23:15 | Report Abuse

if you want me to delete above post so that its easier to cheat newbies just say so and I will delete it immediately

no worries

:)

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-16 23:34 | Report Abuse

Since you are trying to pick numbers out of the air, why don't you pick the only numbers that was given before by management to investment bankers who actually went to Vietnam, seen the power plant, talked to the management, and did a lot of discussion directly?

If you want to take historical details,

This was in 2015, an analysis of Jaks the BUSINESS. By kenanga

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.insage.com.my/ir/cmn/downloading.aspx%3FsFileName%3D16103000018052%26sReportType%3DRR&ved=2ahUKEwi8-7PP1LjpAhWZXCsKHeiEC4QQFjADegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw21P31Gixvf0snK3N_C39ca

This was in 2017, an analysis of Jaks the BUSINESS. By public bank

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.insage.com.my/ir/cmn/downloading.aspx%3FsFileName%3D16103000018052%26sReportType%3DRR&ved=2ahUKEwi8-7PP1LjpAhWZXCsKHeiEC4QQFjADegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw21P31Gixvf0snK3N_C39ca

This was in 2020, an analysis of Jaks the BUSINESS. By hong Leong


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.bursamarketplace.com/mkt/tools/research/ch%3Dresearch%26pg%3Dresearch%26ac%3D919419%26bb%3D935930&ved=2ahUKEwiO-v2e1rjpAhULWX0KHYIKANQQFjACegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw0vzryUdVHAILAPLlzzqFYv

If anything, did Jaks the business do anything that was beyond the estimates of analysts that would cause funds to pile investments into Jaks from 2015-2020? I don't see any mutual funds buying.

The estimates and the results of the business through the years had been disappointingly consistent. The management guidance by Steven Ang ex CFO has guided towards the same results, and the CEO alp also has not given any profit guidance for the future.

In the end, has jaks done anything out of the ordinary to give you any confidence or full time bank analysts to revise their estimates for Jaks over the last 5 years? And yet still armchair part time amateur analysts can go saying everyone else is wrong, public bank is wrong and should demand an apology. Jaks should be worth 4.50 etc.

In my opinion, a conservative figure of net profit ( when current earnings from power plant is non-existent), one should use the figures given by analysts and ex-CFO of Jaks as a baseline. The fact that he sold all his shares at 80 cents should give one pause to think deeper instead of saying he is stupid.

I would say anyone not working at Jaks or has direct meetings with them are working with incomplete information, aka speculation.

Since almost all the 5 year estimates have been that Jaks is worth rm1.50 before pp, warrants dilution etc, it would be useful to be conservative to use that as your base level before adding optimism or negativity.

Going beyond that base level is adding risk or removing risk depending on your buying price. Some like DK66 managed to buy at 40 cents to put his costs down at 70 cents. Control the downside and protect the upside. He can sit back and monitor. Some like kyy bought until 1.48, expecting windfall.

What is your conservative figure?

Scuttlebutt.

>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by johnmasino > May 16, 2020 10:25 PM | Report Abuse

So according to Philip's assessment, we should use the most conservative figure of net profit of just RM14 million which means that JAKS is just worth RM0.21 at PE of 10..LOL

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-16 23:51 | Report Abuse

Johnmasino, be honest, how long have you been a Jaks shareholder? Did
you attend the 2018 AGM? Or the 2019 AGM? Would you have known about this stock if not for KYY? I have attended. I was very interested and about to buy Jaks before.

Let's be honest here. Those who have been here long enough would know that I have actually met Steven before for a short discussion with mutual friends, before he left for ksk. I did press him for details which I was reluctant to share due to him still being the CFO of Jaks before on the ppa agreement and the profit margins due from the power plant. As he has now left, all I can do is show you that in my portfolio I still have not bought a single share of Jaks. I believe the price once given out to during official AGM was below 140 million. He has since revised his profitability claims, sold all his stocks and left the company.

Do with that information what you will.

All these are official and recorded statements from Jaks management. So if you said the Jaks management is lying, and power plant will make 1 billion a year, then it may just turn out that way.

But be rational.


>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by DK66 > May 16, 2020 10:29 PM | Report Abuse

johnmasino, The CFO did say during the 2019 AGM that the JHDP will contribute 80-100m to Jaks but it also said "more than 100m" during the 2018 AGM. He did not provide further explanation. I think he could be taking Mong Duong II's distribution as a guide but that is just my opinion.

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-05-16 23:55 | Report Abuse

Philip:- Thanks for the input. I agree that we should use conservative figures but at the same time, those figures must be realistic.

The entire basis of being optimistic about JAK's earnings potential isn't based on blind optimism or wishful thinking, but on the fact that we already have facts and figures generated from the financial report of Vinh Tanh power plant which is similar to JDHP.

The conservative figures that have been claimed appear to be well below what Vinh Tan is generating. Why on earth would the Chinese banks land money to build a power plant that is more expensive than Vinh Tan when they know they will be earning less than half of what Vinh Tan is currenty earning? Does that make any business sense?

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-05-16 23:56 | Report Abuse

Because of this I think it makes sense to estimate that most likely JDHP would generate similar earnings as Vinh Tan.

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-05-16 23:58 | Report Abuse

In any event, I believe there is still a lot of upside for JAKS to run, how far it will go is anyone's guess..my conservative estimate would be RM2.50 to RM3.00.

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-17 00:12 | Report Abuse

depends on PPA

for advanced countries, subcritical and supercritcial have different milestones

if PPA is same then subcritical will parity with supercritical at around 80 to 85% usually or at best 90% depending on plant management.

I had already posted this earlier but of course the "expert article writer" spit on it.

You will need to deduct the aseng amount also,
After deduction, then the Vietnam Approved Plant amount [as used by Public Bank for IRR] will be lower.

then of course the forecast profits is low coz Public Bank used Vietnam Approved Plant Amount.

Those figures are actually all announced to BURSA.

Thats why Analysts gets paid RM600,000.00 per annum.

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-17 00:17 | Report Abuse

I am now waiting for some one whose "England Not Powerful"
cannot read Annual Reports to call me a liar again.

Trust me, all figures had been announced to BURSA.

Nothing had been hidden from you.

Since all of you are smarter than Public Bank,
you should be able to estimate Vietnam Approved Plant Amount.

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-05-17 00:20 | Report Abuse

Philip:- Don't accuse me of saying that the BOD is lying man! All I did was ask from DK66 on confirmation whether the BOD did claim that the said profits was between 84 to 100 million. I'm not sure whether those claims are true.

Another thing, isn't asking the CFO about sensitive information that has not been made public to other investors an attempt on insider information?

I've not met any of the BOD in person nor attend the AGM but OTB who has personally spoken to ALP and personally toured the power plant is very optimistic about the prospects.

Coupled with reliable data and earnings from Vinh Tan 1, Im OK with my decision to stick with my estimates.

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-05-17 00:25 | Report Abuse

Philip:- Another thing that you said is that the CFO sold all his holdings at 80 cents and left the company. So, my question back to you is, just because the CFO sold all his shares at 80 cents, does that mean we should also do the same? After all, he is the CFO and has inside information so if he sold all his shares at 80 cents means we should do likewise?

Well, I guess he lost a lot of potential profits because JAKS soared to as high as RM1.54. It would have gone higher had it not been for the COVID-10 crash..

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-17 00:30 | Report Abuse

It is good that you are optimistic, and there is definitely the possibility and chance that Jaks can go up to rm4.50 as per DK66 tp. But rationally since you are saying that Jaks CFO is wrong, pbb analyst is wrong, hong Leong analyst is wrong, everyone else is wrong, but you are right.

In that case with such overwhelming confidence, let me ask you a simple question: have you seen the ppa agreement of Jaks? Can you guarantee that the power plant will be fully operational by November 2020 inspite of covid 19 before LAD kicks in?

So until you have, all I can advise young investors is to invest rationally.

All the best.

>>>>>>>>>

johnmasino In any event, I believe there is still a lot of upside for JAKS to run, how far it will go is anyone's guess..my conservative estimate would be RM2.50 to RM3.00.
16/05/2020 11:58 PM

Posted by CT > 2020-05-17 00:38 | Report Abuse

Even 100 million profit for the 30% holding for the power plant, jaks worth at least RM2.00 already.
So no point to keep argue as currently upside more than downside.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-17 00:38 | Report Abuse

Sorry, I'm not some sifu or great investor or some such. I will not presume to tell you to sell or buy or give some TP etc. I am learning something new everyday, the same as you. Just because CFO bought or sold doesn't mean you have to, but I bet you did not know this until I brought it up ( which is the purpose of the wonderful i3 forum to gain info).

What you should do is scuttlebutt and get as much information as possible before acting. In the end working with incomplete information you need to make a decision to buy or sell. The decision is always yours because results are never black/ white. In the short term, share price can jump in any direction, up and down. In the long run things fall into a more balanced pattern.

In the end, if you don't take a risk you gain nothing. The question is how you analyze risk.

>>>>>>>>>>
ohnmasino Philip:- Another thing that you said is that the CFO sold all his holdings at 80 cents and left the company. So, my question back to you is, just because the CFO sold all his shares at 80 cents, does that mean we should also do the same? After all, he is the CFO and has inside information so if he sold all his shares at 80 cents means we should do likewise?

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-17 00:40 | Report Abuse

bros ... no need to argue lah ...want to buy ..buy ..dont want no gun pointing at ur head to do so...why so ke poh n worry people lose money ...what if they win ...they say terima kasih....give it a rest ...best is to wait it out ...if got confidence proceed to buy n invest if not stay fence side n look see look see lo

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-05-17 00:45 | Report Abuse

Philip:- Being optimistic is one thing, but being realistic guided by facts and figures is another.

I don't know why you keep accusing me of saying that the CFO/PBB analyst/Hong Leong is wrong. I never said that! Please don't bring up ad hominem arguments and falsely accuse of attacking others as liars.

What I'm saying is that we shouldn't trust anyone whole heartedly and should based our investment decisions on facts and figures. I've already stated that my decision to stick with JAKS is based on the financial results of Vinh Tan which earned 684 million in 2019. These are FACTS and not some wishful thinking.

Perhaps you should try to rebutt this piece of information first as to why I shouldn't rely on Vinh Tans earnings as a guide for JDHPs and perhaps I will consider your views.

I've not seen the PPA agreement. Have you?

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-05-17 00:53 | Report Abuse

CT:- You're right. That's why Im still holding on to JAKS even though Im already seating on a paper profit of 80%.

I believe JAKS has the potential to hit at least RM2.50 by end of this year or early next year.

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-05-17 00:58 | Report Abuse

Philip:- I agree that the management should do more to boost investors confidence. In any event, having a power plant should generate good profits for JAKS.

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-05-17 01:04 | Report Abuse

Philip:- Thanks for the exchange. It was actually engaging to have this discussion with you.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-17 01:09 | Report Abuse

Johnmasino: I will assume you didn't write this then.

I don't know why you keep accusing me of saying that the CFO/PBB analyst/Hong Leong is wrong. I never said that! Please don't bring up ad hominem arguments and falsely accuse of attacking others as liars.


>>>>>>>

The PBB analyst should be shot for misleading so many people

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-05-17 01:21 | Report Abuse

Philip:- I can't believe you used this statement to back up your accusations against me..LOL

Did you read my entire comments carefully? When I said that, I was sarcastically and jokingly saying that based on the conservative profits of 14 million as others have claimed, the PBB analyst was "wrong" and had supposedly "overestimated" his profit by a 500% and should be shot for doing so. And then I laughed out loud!!

Don't you get it? LOL..I was being sarcastic to those who had projected such low results dude!

It's like saying to someone who says that he is the richest man in the world when Forbes says it's Jeff Bezos and I turn to that person saying, "Yeah, and I guess the people on Forbes magazine should be shot for lying to us saying that Jeff Bezos is the richest person in the world".

In other words, I'm being sarcastic to the one who falsely claimed he is the richest man in the world.

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-05-17 01:26 | Report Abuse

In fact, when I said that, I'm actually saying that the PBB analyst has more realistic profit projections than what some others estimated..

Posted by johnmasino > 2020-05-17 01:28 | Report Abuse

Here is the full comment of what I posted. Hope you get the sarcasm.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So using Philip's logic of using the most conservative figure in the alleged claims of absence of concrete evidence, the PBB analyst was bloody dead wrong when he overestimated JAKS shares by more than 500%!!! LOL...AHAHAAHAHA

The PBB analyst should be shot for misleading so many people into buying JAKS even at RM0.40 when according to BOD's guidance, JAKS profit is just a paltry RM14 million with JDHP's profits..


AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Joke of the Year..LOL

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-17 01:29 | Report Abuse

I read many times from John that PBB should be shot/ apologise....and what not...not just once.....


and I got no idea where u cook up a fictitious figure of $ 14 million.....

bottomline is this....I read the PBB reports and I am ok with it...

If u think Jaks is worth a lot more, that is your business and your right.............don't go fcuking PBB....they are innocent of your accusations...........and they have their own way of doing thing....and there is no conceptual error in their presentations and formulas.

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-17 08:41 | Report Abuse

Every "english word and figure" inside Analyst Reports are checked and backed up by calculations.

Calculations are checked step by step by Manager and only then Big Boss/CEO will approve.
Some CEOs will actually check step by step again before signing Final Approval.

There are always 2 more checks, some Securities Firms have even 3 more checks.

These are professional checks, not likings

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-17 08:59 | Report Abuse

"Expert Article Writer" is claiming that Jaks CFO has no professional qualifications at all so cannot calculate IRR and NPV.
Thats why Jaks CFO sold all his shares at 80 sen coz too stupid to calculate IRR and NPV which "conclusively proves" that TP = 4.50

which fool will sell at 80 sen when said fool can calculate TP = 4.50 ?

oooh by the way only professionally qualified accountants are allowed to sign the statutory declaration for companies in BURSA.
This law was implemented many years ago.
This proves that Jaks CFO was professionally qualified.

so essentially "Expert Article Writer" is now claiming that Jaks CFO got his professional qualifications by "cheating on his exams"?

If Jaks CFO got his professional qualifications but dunno how to calculate IRR and NPV then the only way to pass his exams will be by cheating right?

IRR and NPV always appear in accountancy exams at every level and many times also.
but "Expert Article Writer" wants to tell you that Jaks CFO totally has no idea how to calculate IRR and NPV.

Does this makes sense to you?

also "Expert Article Writer" wants to tell you that his calculation of IRR and NPV using the Wrong Vietnam Approved Investment Amount is the correct way to do it.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-17 09:13 | Report Abuse

Good morning my good friends

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-17 09:20 | Report Abuse

It seems my good friend is inviting to talk something not on Jaks, but the reason why I call him a liar.

Please allow me some time to search for the evidence and paste it later.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-17 09:23 | Report Abuse

Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

May 16, 2020 9:13 AM | Report Abuse

You are caught telling lie
Do not create fake news


Posted by i3lurker > May 15, 2020 9:19 PM | Report Abuse

Jaks value is low coz institutionals wun invest.
cash flow problems
lots of issues like imminent RI ~ RM250 million
[PBB stated it inside report]


Posted by DK66 > May 15, 2020 9:50 PM | Report Abuse

Johnmasino, PBB did not mention 250m right issue at all.
16/05/2020 8:46 AM

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-17 09:27 | Report Abuse

It is not your English is good or bad
It is who is talking specifically the RI RM 250 loud and clear not your good English can deny

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-17 09:31 | Report Abuse

who is gonna believe your repeated fake posts and lies?

Other Analysts in fact all Analyst who reads Public Bank reports gets the same conclusion on RI and also the RI amount is very crystal clear.

When you dunno how to calculate cash flow and dunno how to read Analysts reports
and also have no experience at all, then you can see all sorts of silly claims.

thats why I keep saying 1,000 times already, when you dun have experience dun write articles.

The experience required is very simple.
1) Know how to read reports
2) IPP and power plant experience

if Public Bank dun have negative cash flow to prove RI.
Sentence will be struck off at manager level.
The negative cashflow to prove RI is submitted to manager and CEO to show that sentence is correct.

That means Public Bank already calculated cash flow problems

What we already know from report => Public Bank got evidence of cash flow problems.

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-17 09:32 | Report Abuse

That means Public Bank already calculated cash flow problems

What we already know from report => Public Bank got evidence of cash flow problems.

Only way to solve cash flow problems will be by RI

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-17 09:33 | Report Abuse

if Public Bank dun have negative cash flow to prove RI.
Sentence will be struck off at manager level.
The negative cashflow to prove RI is submitted to manager and CEO to show that sentence is correct.

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-17 09:35 | Report Abuse

What we already know from report => Public Bank got evidence of cash flow problems.

Only way to solve cash flow problems will be by RI

that also means that the negative cash flow shortfall must be huge right?

normally if cashflow shortfall is small like say few million RM only, no Analyst especially Public Bank will ever mention RI

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-17 09:37 | Report Abuse

Actually I had already forgotten the story because whether you are a liar not a liar is not important to me. But you keep reminding me this a good topic for us to talk about. A request from my good friend i3lurker how can I say no.

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-17 09:39 | Report Abuse

I am always waiting for Aseng to bring out FAKE things on Jaks for other readers to see.

Aseng is doing a good job
I give Aseng a like.

Expert Article Writer is smart.
He always stop short so that newbies will still be blurr blurr.

but Aseng always writes the truth about Jaks
Aseng, you are still my best friend!!

ha ha ha ha

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-17 09:43 | Report Abuse

You don't have to bring the matter so far

We are talking about the RI RM250

Show me where is the official announcement
Show me which sentence in PBB report talk about it

If PBB or the company did not mention anything at all, and you tell the whole kampung there is a RI, then we do not need a ver good English to tell us you are not a liar

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-17 09:45 | Report Abuse

Who are you to decide for the company whether to have RI or not to have RI?