Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 22:55 | Report Abuse

Aseng and all, good night

Posted by huahtai98 > 2020-05-14 22:58 | Report Abuse

@qqq333
Yr comment "but dont drag others down with you" is uncalled for. I wrote.....Just my humble 2 cents.
Please correct me if i am wrong.
Did i drag others down with me?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 23:01 | Report Abuse

Forgot to say thank you.

Thank you and good night
-----------
paktua73 take a rest dk66 paktua respect your hard work..
until late night still repy all feedback..
rest a bit..

tut tut
true fa sifu dk66..
willing to sacrifice his freedom..
for other sake..
14/05/2020 10:33 PM

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-14 23:01 | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee,

my common sense can not accept your IRR calculation of the total net profit of the power plant .




Posted by DK66 > May 14, 2020 10:36 PM | Report Abuse

Under equity IRR, borrowings are assumed to only generate sufficient to cover interest costs

Posted by DK66 > May 14, 2020 10:30 PM | Report Abuse

Meaning, your borrowing and interest costs will be paid but only your own capital is used to calculate the profit return.


Posted by Aseng > May 14, 2020 10:33 PM | Report Abuse X

where got such a thing ?

loan also can generate profit mah....

Posted by elbrutus > 2020-05-14 23:22 | Report Abuse

DK66 bro ...take my advice ...u have done ur utmost best...no doubt about your tireless effort...give it a rest ...arguments n counter arguments aint gonna settle these issues...best wait for COD n maybe 3rd Q results will shed some light on whether who is accurate ...at this moment in time we all r guessing ...for some ...talk kok kok clever ...rest well n peace be with u ..99

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 23:23 | Report Abuse

DK66 > May 14, 2020 10:51 PM | Report Abuse

Aseng, Vinh Tan 1 made 652m. 30% is 196m. You think Jaks can be so far off ?
===========

and what is the gearing in Vinh Tan and what is your gearing?

and the terms of the PPA?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 23:24 | Report Abuse

and since PBB figures ( supplied by Jaks ) are so far from your figures, so how?

Throw away Jaks figures? u smarter than Jaks with deep knowledge?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 23:27 | Report Abuse

The only alternative is to ask them or do a projection based on 12% irr on e quity funding of $ 600 million ( almost all of which is EPCC profits)..................

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 23:28 | Report Abuse

........don't pretend u don't know how to do it.


U owe it to everyone to do it and tell us about it.....

don't pretend.

Posted by CT > 2020-05-14 23:52 | Report Abuse

DK66 just ignore this tin kosong qqq33.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 23:59 | Report Abuse

ct...........call me tin kosong u can make money meh?

Posted by edkfc > 2020-05-15 00:13 | Report Abuse

Wow..thanks to Ehome009 for your eagle eye and DK66 for verifying and further clarification.
Out of curiosity I look at the latest MFCB analyst report (3rd April 2020) also by Public Investment Bank though different analyst. Imagine and interestingly they value the Don Sahong project at rm2.6297B.
Lets see when the two analysts get calibrated, what will Hai Duong Project be worth !!!

MFCB
Sum-Of-Parts Valuations Valuation Basis Value (RMm) RM/share
Resources CY20 PER of 12x 132.8 0.28
Don Sahong hydropower project 80% stake (WACC: 9.8%) 2,629.7 5.54
Investment in quoted shares Book Value 43.2 0.09
Investment Properties Book Value 177.2 0.37

Fully-diluted Target Price (RM/share) 2,982.9 6.29

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-05-15 00:22 | Report Abuse

Yes, we ,the simple minded uncles & unties , still view DK66's relative valuation is by far the most sensible, straightforward & reliable measurement until proven otherwise by Jak's ACTUAL results !
We prefer to be guided this way in our investment decision in Jaks .

--------------------------------------------------------------
DK66>Aseng, Vinh Tan 1 made 652m. 30% is 196m. You think Jaks can be so far off ?
14/05/2020 10:51 PM

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-15 00:27 | Report Abuse

by VIN3133 > May 15, 2020 12:22 AM | Report Abuse

Yes, we ,the simple minded uncles & unties , still view DK66's relative valuation is by far the most sensible, straightforward & reliable measurement until proven otherwise by Jak's ACTUAL results !
We prefer to be guided this way in our investment decision in Jaks .
=========

the capital structure have a huge impact on the reported profits ....so are the terms of the PPA..........and what about exceptional items?

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-05-15 00:36 | Report Abuse

Our own money , our fate , we decide ourselves .
We do our own due diligence and measure the risks vs rewards ratio & set cut-loss/cut-profit in place in our investment decision .
Thank you for your concern .
Every investment in shares involves risk.
If can't bear the risk , might as well put in FD . Guaranteed to be safe .

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-15 00:52 | Report Abuse

y VIN3133 > May 15, 2020 12:36 AM | Report Abuse

Our own money , our fate , we decide ourselves .
We do our own due diligence and measure the risks vs rewards ratio & set cut-loss/cut-profit in place in our investment decision .
Thank you for your concern .
Every investment in shares involves risk.
If can't bear the risk , might as well put in FD . Guaranteed to be safe .

=========

good attitude....but since this is a forum calling me tin kosong does not stop me from posting..........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-15 01:48 | Report Abuse

good attitude....but since this is a forum calling me tin kosong does not stop me from posting..........after all, there are plenty of silent readers.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-15 08:28 | Report Abuse

Good morning my good friends


Posted by Aseng > May 15, 2020 8:27 AM | Report Abuse X

Dear Sslee,

Good morning

I know It is not my job to judge your work is good or bad
Since you begin with such a declaration

"Since I was Business Development Manager before and had work thro’ many project feasibility studies"


It is very dangerous to support your calculation with this news
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/2019-07-08-story2141...

and a challenge to verify the net income with the management during the AGM

Many careless readers will be easily misled into believing your last figure RM77. 61 is the total net profit of the business operation even though after the ammendments and your reminder it is not.

Sorry to tell early in the morning,
Very misleading playing with figures

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-15 08:38 | Report Abuse

Dear ALL,

I have been spending too much time arguing and defending Jaks. I was accused of ulterior motive. I can not afford to spend my time defending blindly because I do not know what you do not know. I regret to inform that you will not hear from me unless you ask sincerely. You owe yourself a duty to ask if you do not know. I m here for you.

I hope my absence will help to restore peace in Jaks' forum. Good bye and good luck.

Thank you.

Posted by Shan Kee Tiow > 2020-05-15 08:50 | Report Abuse

其实DCF这部分计算的是公司CF就是现金流不是profit。
很简单，你买车头期加贷款100k（RM8.04b），头期20k（RM2b)，分期付款5年还清80k（RM6b/还贷n期），但是车可以用10年，每年折旧10k，但是为什么不以分期付款来计算费用，原因就是因为车可以用10年，总不能前5年供完车而后五年就没折旧费用，相对地前5年盈利都被折旧盖过了，而后5年才大赚钱，你们会这么计算盈利吗？你做运输的，一年现金收入50k，扣除车油费等费用车贷利息等大概15k，剩35k（RM1.02b)，但是要记得扣除10k（321.6m）折旧，盈利是25k（698.4m），现金收入扣除15k剩35k，但是10k折旧是无形费用（不是贷款），所以现金收入35k（25k盈利+10k折旧）。最后再从35k中要还的车贷拿去还（只是这笔帐不是营业计算，而是融资计算），由于这关于到cash flow，所以大家容易困乱。

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-15 08:50 | Report Abuse

Dear Aseng,
If you use the 2019 AGM BOD share of profit RM (80-100) million or USD (19.37-24.21) million Exchange rate 4.13
Since FCF=Net profit + depreciation + interest expenses – Loan repayment of USD 109.712 million.

Then share of FCF for the end of first year (base on 30%). Exchange rate USD to MYR = 4.34
USD (19.37-24.21) + 1870X0.3/25 + 1402.5X0.06X0.3 - 109.712X0.3
USD (19.37-24.21) + 22.44 + 25.245 – 32.913
USD (19.37-24.21) + 14.77
USD (34.14-38.98)
RM (148.16- 169.17) million

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-15 08:54 | Report Abuse

Thank you for your explanation. It is good explanation.
--------------
Shan Kee Tiow 其实DCF这部分计算的是公司CF就是现金流不是profit。
很简单，你买车头期加贷款100k（RM8.04b），头期20k（RM2b)，分期付款5年还清80k（RM6b/还贷n期），但是车可以用10年，每年折旧10k，但是为什么不以分期付款来计算费用，原因就是因为车可以用10年，总不能前5年供完车而后五年就没折旧费用，相对地前5年盈利都被折旧盖过了，而后5年才大赚钱，你们会这么计算盈利吗？你做运输的，一年现金收入50k，扣除车油费等费用车贷利息等大概15k，剩35k（RM1.02b)，但是要记得扣除10k（321.6m）折旧，盈利是25k（698.4m），现金收入扣除15k剩35k，但是10k折旧是无形费用（不是贷款），所以现金收入35k（25k盈利+10k折旧）。最后再从35k中要还的车贷拿去还（只是这笔帐不是营业计算，而是融资计算），由于这关于到cash flow，所以大家容易困乱。

Posted by leafwinner > 2020-05-15 09:01 | Report Abuse

多谢Shan Kee tiow 和 dk66大师无私的分享。有大师在这里就不怕菜鸟们被人误导。所以别放弃，请继续在这里分享。

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-15 09:03 | Report Abuse

And by the way
NPV with 5% discount Sum (1/(1+0.05)^N). Where N= 1 to 25 is 14.0939
Hence base on NPV the 30% is worth RM (148.16- 169.17) X 14.0939 million
=RM (2,088 – 2,384) million

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-15 09:04 | Report Abuse

我会的。只是你们有不了解的必须问，不然我无法帮忙。谢谢。
-----------------------------
leafwinner 多谢Shan Kee tiow 和 dk66大师无私的分享。有大师在这里就不怕菜鸟们被人误导。所以别放弃，请继续在这里分享

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-15 09:06 | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee,

It is ok to use various techniques to forecast the net profit. In fact it is encouraged to do that
DK66 used relative valuation and come to a figure RM196M, Icon8888 IRR RM200-RM300M,Ehome IRR RM200M and yours RM142M-RM162

And it seems to me you also agree i3lurker and qqq3 IRR 25% EQUITY calculation is baseless and misleading, reasonably it shouldn't appear in your calculation. It serves no purpose to support your valuation based on 2019 AGM forecast.

Posted by Shan Kee Tiow > 2020-05-15 09:12 | Report Abuse

Aseng
你问12%IRR是怎么找来的？其实是算出来的，就是用DCF找出来的，DCF公式里有3个未知数，那就是NPV，CF和rate。他们确定了NPV（8.04b）和每年CF（1020m），之后再计算出12% IRR。如果我有一片地，用来种植水果，那么我肯定知道收成，成本，总投资额，然后就可以计算出我一年收入和大概能拿到多少现金，这一切只要是你熟悉的都能知道如何计算，发电厂如何运作如何收成的这方面就不是我们的能力范围了，何况合同中的价码都清楚，所以他们肯定能计算出，加上cpecc有vinh tan 1这家电厂的前例。而我们只借助jaks给的8.04b和12% IRR来反推算出公司预期的现金收入是多少。我们只要清楚知道DK66送给我们的最有价值资料（Jaks Resources - Risk assessment by CPECC），这资料中显示几个特点，就是越南政府给出极好的条件，例如煤炭价格涨，电费也会随之而涨；煤炭厂供应不了煤炭，从国外进口煤炭与合同中差距的额外溢价和成本将由煤炭厂承担，一切都由越南政府担保，还有好多这类的不平等条约。大家可以自己去读。为什么会造成这种局面，我想可能是2011年的越南很穷，急需外资注入资金建厂，因此才有那么多的优厚条件。

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-15 09:15 | Report Abuse

Dear Aseng,
The Value to JAkS by PBB Analyst report of RM 329 million or 0.48 per share is definitely wrong.
Wait for their next report upgrade.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-15 09:17 | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee,

I m glad that you agreed with me

------------------
Sslee Dear Aseng,
The Value to JAkS by PBB Analyst report of RM 329 million or 0.48 per share is definitely wrong.
Wait for their next report upgrade.
15/05/2020 9:15 AM

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-15 09:19 | Report Abuse

Posted by Sslee > May 15, 2020 8:50 AM | Report Abuse

RM (148.16- 169.17) million
========

ok....I can now put Jaks issue away...a bit on the high side but within believability..

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-15 09:32 | Report Abuse

Posted by Sslee > May 15, 2020 9:15 AM | Report Abuse

Dear Aseng,
The Value to JAkS by PBB Analyst report of RM 329 million or 0.48 per share is definitely wrong.
Wait for their next report upgrade.
=============

too fast to assume PBB is wrong

-u use 5% discounting rate, we do not know what rate PBB uses
-u assume constant level from year 1, they used whole spread sheet
-per PBB method, the worth of the IPP is NTA plus $ 329 million, not just the $ 329 milliom.

IB analysts uses spread sheet like normal people eat rice..........so don't assume they make conceptual errors. They can make forecasting errors, not conceptual errors.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-15 09:43 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3,
You do not use NTA to value Topglove.
Hence basic knowldge you have to use DCF to value assest that give you FCF for 25 years base on a discount rate for inflation.

Posted by Antifakeguru > 2020-05-15 09:43 | Report Abuse

Fake rebound. Better take this opportunity to sell all to dumb crab that chase high !!

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-15 09:53 | Report Abuse

plants become less efficient and more maintenance as years go by...so PBB using whole spread sheet is probably better than your constant profit based on year 1.

Posted by skyjet > 2020-05-15 10:04 | Report Abuse

SUPERMX, NEW MISS UNIVERSE.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-15 10:13 | Report Abuse

Dear Shan kee how,

I like a simple calculation with minimum assumption
I prefer DK66 relative valuation
It sounds reasonable and reliable to me
I can read DCF and IRR calculation also
it is not too difficult for me to understand
but my mathematics sense does not allow me to feel safe with this model
I am happy to see all the IRR calculation enhances the degree of reliability of DK66 Relative Valuation and I am more confident to rely on it to make my investment decision.

a simple advice to all my good friends here,

before you accept a calculation , it got to get a "pass" from your common sense .




Posted by DK66 > May 14, 2020 10:53 PM | Report Abuse

Aseng, Vinh Tan 1 spent USD1.75b and JHDP spent USD1.87b but only generate less than half the profit. Resonable ?

Posted by 2721 > 2020-05-15 10:16 | Report Abuse

engine started...gogogo

Posted by GGecko > 2020-05-15 10:18 | Report Abuse

Dsonic 13 Sen up, jaks will follow uptrending albeit slower than dso

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-15 10:22 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3,
You already take profit on your glove stocks. So no worries after they finished goreng and take profit on all the stocks related to COVID-19 they will start goreng stocks with concession assets now paying lower interest expenses thus better profit.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-15 10:37 | Report Abuse

a simple common sense

if your neighbor sold his musang king RM 50 a kilo , then it is very stupid to believe the buyer told you, yours only worth RM10 a kilo .


Posted by DK66 > May 14, 2020 10:53 PM | Report Abuse

Aseng, Vinh Tan 1 spent USD1.75b and JHDP spent USD1.87b but only generate less than half the profit. Resonable ?

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-15 10:43 | Report Abuse

my good friend,


you are talking something as if you are going to acquire the whole power plant

cukup lah....

I still call you my good friend

I really do not like to exclude you

when I greet every one

"Good morning my good friends "



Posted by qqq33333333 > May 15, 2020 9:53 AM | Report Abuse

plants become less efficient and more maintenance as years go by...so PBB using whole spread sheet is probably better than your constant profit based on year 1.

Posted by huahtai98 > 2020-05-15 10:57 | Report Abuse

@Aseng....i agree with you bro....common sense is important and very useful.
JHDP is an RM8 billion investment.
So isn't an annual nett profit of RM1billion a reasonable expectation from an RM8 billion project....common sense....haha.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-15 11:05 | Report Abuse

I know my common sense
my common sense plays its role after reading reading DK66 report , Iconn8888 report , ehome009 report and Sslee report .

how about your common sense ?
pop from nowhere ?



Posted by huahtai98 > May 15, 2020 10:57 AM | Report Abuse

@Aseng....i agree with you bro....common sense is important and very useful.
JHDP is an RM8 billion investment.
So isn't an annual nett profit of RM1billion a reasonable expectation from an RM8 billion project....common sense....haha.

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-15 11:09 | Report Abuse

Big sense or small sense
common or uncommon
it doesn't matter
still can be reconcile as long as
it is not nonsense

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-15 11:16 | Report Abuse

I did not say my common sense accept 1B net profit
please do not twist my common sense.



Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

May 14, 2020 6:05 PM | Report Abuse

Aseng very happy to announce that

DK66 's projection of the power plant net profit ,RM196, using relative valuation, is again confirmed fair and reliable

EPS = 30 cents

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-15 11:27 | Report Abuse

An post by Sarifah dulu


Sarifah x mahu to be hard on the CFO

Tapi... lihat la u sendiri

Comparing PAT yg diberi kat AGM to apa yg the same CFO told Kenanga

PAT US 120m x 4 = RM 480m

JAK's 30% = 144m

JAK's 40% = 192m


Charging on units of power produced, assuming the plant is able to keep up with the minimum utilisation requirement; the project is expected to yield up to USD120.0m/year of net-of-tax profits





JAKS Resources Bhd (JAKS) – Not Rated

For our last corporate visit, Mr. Steveno Ang, Chief Financial Officer of JAKS, provided us a tour of the upcoming coal fired thermal power plant project in the Hai Doung province, which is a 30%-joint venture with the China Power Engineering Consulting Group Co Ltd (CPECC).

The JAKS group as a whole is primarily engaged in water supply and infrastructure construction projects, supply and trading of building materials and steel-related products. The entry into the power segment was a means to minimise cyclical risks of its other segments.

To provide some colour, the plant is designed to generate an output of 2 x 600 MW under a build-operate-transfer model after 25 years with the Vietnamese government, with total construction project revenue to JAKS of RM1.89b to be recognised over phases of completion. Currently estimated to be 55% completed, management anticipates that it is able to commission the first of its two turbines possibly by the end of 2019. The second turbine should then be set to be completed 6 months after this. This is ahead of the initial handover deadline to the Vietnamese Government of November 2020. Addressing any contingencies in place to prevent delays, management mentioned that the integral equipments (i.e. turbines, boilers) for the plant are already on-site, with non-foreseeable issues to source smaller components. Building materials for the plant are also easily sourced from local suppliers. Furthermore, CPECC management and supervisors are consistently on the grounds to monitor the progress closely.

Assuming the full commissioning of the plant, an expected 15,000 mt/day of coal is to be consumed to support a minimum utilisation required of 77% for both turbines. The supply of coal has been committed to be backed by the local coal authority, which is well facilitated with the construction of an inland port/jetty close to the site. Additionally, coal storage areas are being built to store up to 10 days’ worth of fuel, in the event of any hiccups in delivery.

Charging on units of power produced, assuming the plant is able to keep up with the minimum utilisation requirement; the project is expected to yield up to USD120.0m/year of net-of-tax profits.

Posted by Shan Kee Tiow > 2020-05-15 11:28 | Report Abuse

大家好像搞错了一点，ehome有提到他计算出来的1020m FCF和 pbb给的valuation 1096m接近，猜想如下：会不会原本pbb用DCF算出来后的是1096m FCF然后弄错而当作valuation也不是无不可能。也就是说pbb的计算是正确的，只是定义上出现小差错，才会造成那么大的差价。分析员也是人，不是特意责怪他，而是希望他能看到这问题再重新检查一遍。分析员也是我们这些普通人去pbb interview成功后的成功者，也不能说DK66没资格评论pbb分析员的资格，请问你们有谁知道他的来历吗？他DK66可能以前就是某家大行的首席分析员呢？或者他现在还是某家大行的会计师？你们有谁能肯定他们没这种实力？只会一味地用自己的想象来决定别人是什么背景好像这逻辑思维有点问题。

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-15 11:29 | Report Abuse

Kenanga ni bikin a site visit kat Vietnam dulu

Posted by Antifakeguru > 2020-05-15 11:30 | Report Abuse

Fake rebound still dunwan listen. Big shark keep slowly offload haha

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-15 11:31 | Report Abuse

If use current USD RM rate PAT lagi besar sikit