Posted by batmanisbest > 2023-09-04 15:58 | Report Abuse

YTLP is great with a current P/E of 8, but the debt to cash is 3.115 ..
@dragon328, can help to share your opinion? thanks.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-04 16:02 | Report Abuse

@batmanisbest, please see calculations below which I did in last May on YTL Power's net cash position. There has not been much difference in YTLP balance sheet since then except for the increase in gross cash holdings after the disposal of Electranet.

Cash holdings and Debts

YTL Power disposed off its 35% stakes in Electranet Australia for RM3.05 billion in Feb 2022. This effectively turns YTL Power into a nett cash company at the holding level.

Investors may be deterred by purely looking at the massive debts at YTL Power’s balance sheet. These debts are high as YTL Power consolidates debts of various subsidiaries which are mostly ring fenced at the subsidiary level. For instance, Jordan Attarat Power may have total borrowings of USD1,500 million and YTLPI may have consolidated RM2.7 billion of debts in its balance sheet. But this debt is fully ring fenced at the project company level Attarat Power, meaning that any default at Attarat Power will not cause any cross default nor have any repercussion to YTL Power level. These debts will be serviced solely by Attarat Power with its own operating cash flows and YTL Power will not need to pump in any money to help servicing the borrowings there.

As of 31 Dec 2021, YTL Power has total debts of RM30.8 billion on its balance sheet and gross cash holdings of RM10.3 billion, hence nett debt of RM20.5 billion. An estimated RM12.8 billion of nett debts sit in Wessex Waters company level, RM6.0 billion in PowerSeraya, RM2.7 billion in Attarat Power. PowerSeraya may have cash of SGD200 million and Attarat Power USD300m. Hence, after we remove nett debts ring fenced at subsidiary level, YTLPI actually may have nett debts of RM20.5b – 12.8 – (6.0 – 0.6) – (2.7 – 1.2) = RM0.8 billion. This is lower than the estimated nett debt of RM1.1 billion by Maybank analyst and RM7.4 billion by CIMB analyst.

After the disposal of Electranet for RM3.05 billion, YTL Power will turn to a nett cash position at holding level with estimated nett cash of RM2.2 billion or 27 sen per share.


dragon328

1,337 posts

Posted by dragon328 > 5 days ago | Report Abuse

and some further differences in debt amounts due to exchange rate fluctuations:

Wessex debt of 2.3b pounds has become RM13.8 billion at 1 pound = RM6.00 now compared to RM5.50 last year
Jordan debt of US$1.5b has become RM3.0 billion at USD1.00 = RM4.55 now compared to RM4.10 last year
PowerSeraya debt of SGD2.0 billion has become RM6.8 billion at SGD1.00 = RM3.40 now compared to RM3.05 last year

So total debts at these 3 assets level have gone up by RM2.1 billion in ringgit terms, but YTLP has since seen few hundred million of ringgit of operating cashflows (say RM700m) since Dec 2021, so its net cash position has become

RM2.2bn (last May) - RM2.1bn + RM700m = RM800 million very roughly

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-09-04 17:11 | Report Abuse

Hot money flowed into MY as foreign investors seek better returns and bargains in Bursa as last week China numbers expected to be very bleak with unemployment numbers rising. But since the news wasn't as bad as earlier thought, these hot money left MY after making a quick killing and flow out again. Hope non of you caught any falling knives since the exit began

Posted by Ravi1969 > 2023-09-04 17:24 | Report Abuse

China data isn't out and by the way umployment is bad. Stop peddling BS

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-09-04 17:45 | Report Abuse

@Ravi1969 you're obviously not up to speed, what are you smoking? read up, maybe you'll learn something

'...HONG KONG/NEW YORK, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Country Garden's (2007.HK) deal with creditors for an extension on onshore debt payments worth 3.9 billion yuan ($536 million) boosted shares in the developer on Monday and gave China's crisis-ridden property sector some much-needed respite.... '



https://www.reuters.com/world/china/after-country-garden-debt-deal-focus-shifts-china-property-recovery-prospects-2023-09-03/

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-09-04 17:48 | Report Abuse

@Ravi1969 Please read up... hope you can digest these simple info. let me know if you need help

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-affirms-china-at-a-outlook-stable-31-08-2023

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-09-04 17:51 | Report Abuse

@Ravi1969 do you even own any YTLP shares??? Please stick to your Hengyuan Refining Company investments okay? seems like you are an angry little fella always asking people to shut up. had a bad childhood?

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-09-04 17:53 | Report Abuse

Some losers keep,talking about HRc when lots of them either cut loss or took profits. Lol sounding like an old story peddler huh? By the way, where is the data FF we’re net sellers? Wakakaka

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-09-04 17:55 | Report Abuse

Country Garden is old news la wakaka someone really good for cut and paste lol. You don’t know what people have so stop making an ass of yourself to ASSume wakakaa

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-09-04 17:56 | Report Abuse

@Ravi1969 some more info for you to digest

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/09/04/asia-shares-bounce-as-china-mood-turns-less-bleak

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-09-04 17:58 | Report Abuse

@David Gunter oh dear... here you go.

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2023/09/950783/foreign-investors-net-sellers-bursa-malaysia-2nd-consecutive-week

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-09-04 18:01 | Report Abuse

Stock: [IFCAMSC]: IFCA MSC BHD

1 week ago
Malaysia is the only country that has not implemented GST in ASEAN even Cambodia has
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's more cut and paste... some Ass posted that MY has not implemented GST before.. go figure bro

Posted by batmanisbest > 2023-09-04 18:04 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 Thanks for your reply.

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-09-04 18:05 | Report Abuse

Lol lol wow it looks like 100 billion left the market. Like Bursa is depending on FF lol p

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-09-04 18:07 | Report Abuse

Wow not bad it great news China has recovered we are all saved !!!!

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-09-04 18:07 | Report Abuse

Wow not bad it great news China has recovered we are all saved !!!!

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-09-04 18:09 | Report Abuse

sudah la... waste my time engaging with people like you and that other angry fella. both dont want to read up but both keep asking people to shut up and keep insulting people. reflection of poor upbringing by parents or had a bad childhood. enough, it ends here.

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-09-04 18:12 | Report Abuse

100 billion has left bursa according to some quack who can’t count lol. It is like discovery of the century

Posted by Ravi1969 > 2023-09-04 18:13 | Report Abuse

Ohh thank you Jeff I was busy smoking weed

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-09-04 18:18 | Report Abuse

Looks like someone’s parents abandoned him to looked after by some servants and he assumes everyone is like him. I can see that resentment and he is forgiven. Pity really for people like this

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-09-04 18:26 | Report Abuse

Next Friday, expect another huge swing in stock prices for some stocks as it is the date for the next window dressing date.

Posted by Abcdefg123456789 > 2023-09-05 09:11 | Report Abuse

Will it drop below rm2?

Posted by free2invest > 2023-09-05 09:46 | Report Abuse

locked in some profit first.

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2023-09-05 11:25 | Report Abuse

q-ing q-ing

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2023-09-05 11:32 | Report Abuse

@OTB sifu what are the support levels to buy at?

Posted by OTB > 2023-09-05 11:41 | Report Abuse

2.01 follow by 1.92.
Thank you.

Posted by speakup > 2023-09-05 12:01 | Report Abuse

Boo chow

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2023-09-05 12:03 | Report Abuse

Thanks OTB sifu

Posted by OTB > 2023-09-05 12:05 | Report Abuse

I hope YTLPower might be added to FBMKLCI component stocks in December's review.
This will add weight to the stock.
More foreign funds will buy into this stock more aggressively.
Good luck to all investors here.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-05 14:04 | Report Abuse

I see this as a healthy correction after a good rally from RM1.38 on 1st August to a high of RM2.19 yesterday.

Any sustainable rally needs time for consolidation before the next uptrend. YTLP may consolidate for 1-2 months before the next quarterly result which may be the next catalyst for a new uptrend, or may break up RM2.19 by 18th September when it is included in FTSE Asia Pacific index and foreign funds buy in.

It may also dip to RM1.80 if coupled with a "bad" news when certain fractions want to press the share price down to buy lower. Remember the incident on 20th June when the news of EMA introducing TPC broke out, YTLP share price dipped from RM1.30 to RM1.15 intraday but quickly rebounded leaving a tail in the chart. I had suggested that as a good buying opportunity but not many had listened. I was glad to have added a lot at below RM1.20 then.

In any event, I see RM1.88 as a strong support, which incidentally was the level foreign funds pushed up to on 21st August when the news of YTLP inclusion into FTSE Asia Pacific index came out.

Posted by free2invest > 2023-09-05 15:12 | Report Abuse

Don't worry! If drop below RM2, I will buy more.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-09-05 15:36 | Report Abuse

good consolidation!!! up too fast. 2.00/2.01 is first major support.

Posted by fortunefire > 2023-09-05 15:46 | Report Abuse

Think can shoot up again to 3.x by end of the year

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-09-05 15:52 | Report Abuse

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ogf7zF7X/
nice consolidation

Posted by jenson68 > 2023-09-05 16:26 | Report Abuse

Don’t panic …. Gems for 2023!!

Posted by Abcdefg123456789 > 2023-09-05 16:33 | Report Abuse

Tmr bounce back?

Posted by pang72 > 2023-09-06 09:27 | Report Abuse

No more cheap power

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-06 09:48 | Report Abuse

definitely no more cheap power as Brent crude oil price shot past USD90 per bbl.

It will be good for PowerSeraya profit margin as it has secured relatively cheap gas for next 2 years and also good for Jordan power arbitration case.

Posted by Abcdefg123456789 > 2023-09-06 10:09 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 what is ur tp for next qr

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-06 11:22 | Report Abuse

@Abcdefg123456789, it is hard to predict how YTLP share price will move for short term, in fact it is impossible to predict short term share price movements for any stock.

As stated before and agreed with Mr. OTB's forecast, I think YTLP should be able to touch RM4.00 in 2024 based on 10x PER.

Posted by Abcdefg123456789 > 2023-09-06 12:04 | Report Abuse

Thanks@dragon328

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-09-06 13:51 | Report Abuse

There high possibilities of near term issues of redeemable bond with detachable warrants for YTL Power to raise fund to finance the WTE and Kulai Green DC expansion like in 2008 and 2000. @dragon328 what is your thought on this?

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-06 15:34 | Report Abuse

@cgtan2020, the capex requirements for the WTE plant and the secured 200MW green data centre parks (after the 1st phase 48MW fully funded already) at Kulai will be about RM900m and RM1.2 billion respectively over next 3 years.

YTLP has some RM1.0-2.0 billion net cash at holding level based on my rough estimates, and will have operating cashflows of over RM2.5 billion a year for next 2-3 years. So I would expect YTLP to have no issue of funding the equity portion of the capex requirements for the WTE and green data centre park jobs.

I am not too sure of any benefit of issuing redeemable bonds at the moment but I do see the advantage of giving out free warrants which will serve several purposes:
1) to raise funds over next 5 years, eg. issuance of 400 million warrants (1 warrant for every 20 ordinary shares) at exercise price of RM2.00 per share may raise equity money of RM800 million
2) to reward existing YTLP shareholders by giving out free warrants which will be worth RM1.00 per warrant when mother share reaches RM3.00

Posted by hoplanner > 2023-09-06 15:50 | Report Abuse

Is it true that the Kulai green project isn’t totally financed by borrowings as it is largely ‘financed’ by SEA group 32MW for example, as a firm commitment to secure the deal with ytlp. And this wld be the model YTLP will be using with future tenants whenever it wants to expand its solar project

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-09-06 16:15 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 if you follow YTLPower over the decades, you will notice it always issues bond with detachable warrants to attract bond buyer who enjoy immediate premium of the warrants and at the same time make shareholder happy. In 2000 it is 4 for 1, in 2008 it is 3 for 1. With the exercising of the warrants, it share capital enlarge over the years gradually. I will say, it kill many birds with 1 stone.
1) Bond holder is happy.
2) Long term Shareholder is happy and rewards
3) Cheap capital for the company
4) Gradual increase of the company share capital.
5) With bond issues, FCF can be use to pay more dividend to YTL.

Tan Sri like to keep more cash for opportunities grabbing.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-09-06 16:18 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 2008 bond issues detail link is below for you to have a look.


https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=1251972

CIRCULAR TO SHAREHOLDERS IN RELATION TO THE

- PROPOSED ISSUANCE OF UP TO RM2,200,000,000 NOMINAL VALUE OF 5-YEAR REDEEMABLE BONDS WITH DETACHABLE PROVISIONAL RIGHTS TO ALLOTMENT OF UP TO 2,215,122,727 WARRANTS ("WARRANTS") ON A BOUGHT DEAL BASIS TO THE PRIMARY SUBSCRIBER(S) AT 3.00% COUPON OR SUCH OTHER COUPON RATE TO BE DETERMINED NEARER TO THE POINT OF ISSUANCE ; AND

- PROPOSED OFFER FOR SALE BY THE OFFEROR(S) OF THE PROVISIONAL RIGHTS TO ALLOTMENT OF UP TO 2,215,122,727 WARRANTS TO THE EXISTING SHAREHOLDERS OF YTL POWER ON A RENOUNCEABLE RIGHTS BASIS OF THE PROVISIONAL RIGHT TO ALLOTMENT OF ONE (1) WARRANT FOR EVERY THREE (3) EXISTING ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.50 EACH HELD IN YTL POWER ON AN ENTITLEMENT DATE AND AT AN OFFER PRICE TO BE DETERMINED LATER

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-06 16:19 | Report Abuse

@hoplanner, I am not sure what you meant. YTLP has secured debt funding of over RM1.1bn for the 1st phase green data centre at Kulai, the balance was funded by equity money.

SEA group has committed to take up 32MW minimum of the first phase data centre, which means they will pay concession fees to YTLP for this portion of the project. Don't get mixed up with the debt/equity funding of the project.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-06 16:24 | Report Abuse

@cgtan2020, the company needs to pay back the money to bond holders of any redeemable bonds issued, it is not free money. The company will need to pay a fixed coupon to bond holders every year, before redeeming all of them at principal sum, i.e. YTLP will need to get RM2 billion cash ready to redeem the bonds in 5 years time if the company issues RM2bn worth of bonds now, on top of paying RM60 million of coupons every year to bondholders.

I don't see the need of doing such at the moment, as YTLP is not short of cash.

But a free warrant issuance will be highly positive for the company and the share price.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-06 16:29 | Report Abuse

taking the examples above, a 1-for-4 free warrant issuance will give away 2 billion free warrants to existing YTLP shareholders, which will be worth RM2.00 each warrant when the mother share rises to RM4.00 later in 2024-2025. So each existing YTLP shareholder will get 250 shares of free warrant which will be worth RM0.50 for each YTLP mother share held.

And these new warrants will raise equity money of RM2.00 x 2bn = RM4 billion to YTLP in 5 years, which will come in handy to replenish its cash holdings.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-09-06 16:32 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 of course no free money, cheap funding for projects and fixed coupon.