Posted by myloh123 > 2023-08-25 12:50 | Report Abuse

Wow ytlpower has been re-rated to above rm 2 by 3 banks😁

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-25 12:54 | Report Abuse

the first 100MW from Malaysia will actually go thru TNB and Power Seraya. Read Section B3. Prospects, 1st Paragraph of the latest quarter report. YTL Power got old infra in Pasir Gudang that is uses to link to TNB national grid.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-25 12:57 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 next q will be critical whether post TPC implementation, profit will drop a lot

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-08-25 13:05 | Report Abuse

D328 ady explained tat the bulk of d profits r hedged by retail contracts...about 10% r spot rates.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-08-25 13:11 | Report Abuse

target price of RM 2.30 is reasonable expectation for this year...

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-25 13:22 | Report Abuse

Malaysia Singapore interconnector upgrade. https://www.tnb.com.my/assets/newsclip/27102022c1.pdf

Posted by probability > 2023-08-25 13:23 | Report Abuse

RM 2 by next week - most likely

Posted by ltlim74 > 2023-08-25 13:56 | Report Abuse

CIMB projection for FY2024 is conservative. Analysts will always try not to overshoot or undershoot in their projections to minimize the impact if they get it wrong.

Posted by ltlim74 > 2023-08-25 13:58 | Report Abuse

Thx Dragon328 for the detailed research past 2 years. You seem to understand YTLP biz better than most analysts.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-25 14:43 | Report Abuse

@cgtan2020, yes it is important to track next quarterly earnings of YTLP to see any drop in PowerSeraya earnings after the implementation of TPC. I personally think the impact from TPC will be minimal but many are not convinced including some local analysts.

To be conservative, I have removed any contribution from long generation sales into the wholesale pool market from Q1 FY2024 onwards. If you read my article, I have estimated that the long generation has generated a gross margin of S$43 million for PowerSeraya in Q4 FY2023 (vs Sembcorp's estimates of S$60 million impact on its profit for 1H2023). I have totally ignored any contribution from long generation in my earnings projection, just using the base generation which is almost fully hedged with retails contracts and vesting contracts.

3,300 GWh x S$80/MWh = S$264 million gross profit per quarter

Of course, some people may argue the high retails margin cannot sustain going forward. But I fall back to fundamentals of supply and demand, and not based on the fluctuations of wholesale pool prices. You only see that the pool prices in July 2023 had been low after the implementation of TPC, but the fact shows that USEP did shoot to max of S$4,500/MWh again on a few occasions in August 2023, and even after TPC kicked in, USEP remained at the TPC cap price of S$500+/MWh for many periods.

If you invest in shares based on taking bets on fluctuations of share prices every day, then you'd better sell all today on price strength. But you would run the risks of missing out the next rally which you would never know when it will come.

The same logic applies to electricity consumers in Singapore. If they bet on low pool prices in July 2023 and sign up for fluctuating-priced contracts, then they may run the risks of being caught with pool price spikes (like what happened in 1H2023) or sudden jump in gas prices (like in 2022) which may cause them pay S$100/MWh or S$200/MWh extra, compared to those who opt for fixed priced retails contracts and enjoy certainty of price for 2 years at a small premium of S$30-80/MWh over pool prices.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-25 14:51 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, thank you so much, it is very clear now. let track this Q to Q. I think the RE import will be very important for RE100 companies in SG, YTLPower excess RE can be a good export to SG and earn premium price and SGD, do you spent time study this?

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-25 16:15 | Report Abuse

Repost - Other bank TP
By Ying Xian Wong

YTL Power International Bhd. shares jumped early Friday helped by optimism over its outlook after it posted robust fiscal fourth quarter earnings.

Shares in the Malaysia-listed company rose as much as 11% and were recently 6.3% higher at 1.86 ringgit, bringing their year-to-date gain to 162%.

YTL Power late Thursday said its fiscal fourth-quarter net profit was sharply higher at MYR1.13 billion ($243 million), compared with MYR412.4 million in the same period a year earlier. The rise was mainly due to higher contributions from its Singapore power plant and higher investment income. Quarterly revenue increased 56% on year to MYR7.09 billion.

Hong Leong Investment Bank believes the company's current valuation is relatively undemanding, given its Singapore's unit strong earnings recovery. It raised YTL Power's stock target price to MYR2.90 from MYR2.05 and maintained its buy rating.

YTL Power's fiscal 2024-2025 earnings forecasts were raised 31% and 80%, respectively, to factor in higher expected revenue and improved margins, Hong Leong analyst Daniel Wong said in a note.

RHB Investment Bank raised YTL Power's target price to MYR2.21 from MYR2.00, and also maintained its buy rating.

YTL's power division could deliver solid earnings in future and profits from its joint venture and associates may improve in fiscal 2024, given it will receive a full year's contribution from its newly launched Jordan plant, RHB analyst Sean Lim said in a note.

Lim raised YTL's fiscal 2024-2026 earnings estimates by 10%-11%, to account for higher contributions from its power generation division as well as profit from its Jordan plant. He added that the company's stock is trading at an attractive valuation of eight times its fiscal 2024 price-earnings ratio, based on RHB's earnings forecasts.

Write to Ying Xian Wong at yingxian.wong@wsj.com

Posted by troy88 > 2023-08-25 16:41 | Report Abuse

Uptrend still intact after sell on news nonsense that is typical of casino de bursa..

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-08-25 16:45 | Report Abuse

look like hng33 will miss next stop at RM 2 if not buy back at 1.80

Posted by Yezzy99108 > 2023-08-25 16:46 | Report Abuse

well play by operator. Weak hand bilis easily handed cheap ticket to operator. Next stop 2.50

Posted by troy88 > 2023-08-25 16:48 | Report Abuse

Cunning operator and sharks ate up bilis for breakfast with sell on news scare tactics..

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-25 16:49 | Report Abuse

by 1Dec2023 it will be parts of FBMKLCI powering KLCI higher with Malaysia NETR project.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2023-08-25 16:50 | Report Abuse

Below PE4. Good buy.

Posted by probability > 2023-08-25 16:52 | Report Abuse

true..those who hold tight..well done! selling while having dragon328's genuine advising would be a dumb move

Posted by troy88 > Aug 25, 2023 4:48 PM | Report Abuse

Cunning operator and sharks ate up bilis for breakfast with sell on news scare tactics..

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-25 17:02 | Report Abuse

New TP - Kindly add in

TA - 2.40
RHB-OSK - 2.21
Kenanga - 2.14
AmInvest - 2.30
CGSCIMB - 2.40
HLIB - 2.90

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2023-08-25 17:09 | Report Abuse

Well said cgtan2020. Some people just love to pass remark but never read properly.

cgtan2020

the first 100MW from Malaysia will actually go thru TNB and Power Seraya. Read Section B3. Prospects, 1st Paragraph of the latest quarter report. YTL Power got old infra in Pasir Gudang that is uses to link to TNB national grid.

4 hours ago

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2023-08-25 17:10 | Report Abuse

Might be related to rr88 the sifu with the punctured crystal ball

ValueInvestor888

look like hng33 will miss next stop at RM 2 if not buy back at 1.80

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-08-25 17:30 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-25 17:39 | Report Abuse

Good closing at new high!! Congras to those who hold on.

Suggestion to those who chickened out this afternoon - try to buy back below RM1.90. The uptrend is still intact despite the ferocious profit taking this noon that appeared to scare off weak holders and short term traders.

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2023-08-25 17:46 | Report Abuse

dragon I think the correction was a bit shallow but we will know in the next few trading days. The volume today exceeded when the inclusion into next month's FTSE APAC index news came out.

dragon328

Good closing at new high!! Congras to those who hold on.

Suggestion to those who chickened out this afternoon - try to buy back below RM1.90. The uptrend is still intact despite the ferocious profit taking this noon that appeared to scare off weak holders and short term traders.

4 minutes ago

Posted by Alex Chua > 2023-08-25 17:50 | Report Abuse

EPF will be banging their heads against the wall lols

Posted by OnTime > 2023-08-25 19:26 | Report Abuse

great stock!

Posted by beinvested > 2023-08-25 20:37 | Report Abuse

The financial year end is dated 30 JUNE.

Go to last year's AR to study the coverage of the businesses among the subsidiary companies.

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-08-26 07:20 | Report Abuse

Fly fly flying higher on Monday

Posted by probability > 2023-08-26 15:31 | Report Abuse

i think there is going to be EV vehicles explosion in the market, energy demand is going to skyrocket both in Singapore and Malaysia...

and Renewable energy is the theme for the next 10 years...

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-08-26 17:11 | Report Abuse

This is definitely a long term play

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-08-28 07:16 | Report Abuse

100% in and invested

Posted by speakup > 2023-08-28 07:36 | Report Abuse

funny when ytlpower was 50-60sen a year ago, nobody said 100% in and invested 😁

Posted by OnTime > 2023-08-28 08:18 | Report Abuse

and the process will just repeat itself, over and over again

Posted by Apple888 > 2023-08-28 08:53 | Report Abuse

HLIB target price 2.90

Posted by moncmondo87 > 2023-08-28 08:56 | Report Abuse

Correct, OnTime. But keep on track. YTLP continues to build upon its 'concession-based' investment strategy - Wessex, Jawa Power, Seraya & Tuaspring, Comms & Yes (its day will come), REs like Solar & WTE, and associated businesses like data centres, EV charging stations and digital banking; so many many seedlings.

And many more if you know where to look 😁; so read the FY2023 Annual Report when issued in late Sep.
Setting the platform to grow its capital value base (= share price, lor) with further concessionaire-type investments, and projecting the upward trajectory dividend payout trend, encouraged on by YTL Corp 😉

Posted by Muyutin > 2023-08-28 10:14 | Report Abuse

BUY BACK AT RM2

Posted by paktua73 > 2023-08-28 10:26 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BursaKakis > 2023-08-28 10:26 | Report Abuse

Jordan facility to bolster YTL Power’s prospects
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/08/28/jordan-facility-to-bolster-ytl-powers-prospects

Posted by Tibbers > 2023-08-28 10:34 | Report Abuse

2.42 tp by dividend ex date.

Posted by paktua73 > 2023-08-28 10:40 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Muyutin > 2023-08-28 10:41 | Report Abuse

SELL BACK RM2.02

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-08-28 10:52 | Report Abuse

Time to shake the tree a bit

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-08-28 10:57 | Report Abuse

Chickens are going to run

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-08-28 11:00 | Report Abuse

confirm MSCI entry at mkt cap...

Posted by rr88 > 2023-08-28 11:01 | Report Abuse

Grossly overbought. Will consolidate to 1.50++. Sell/stay away/cut loss.

Posted by mf > 2023-08-28 11:01 | Report Abuse

2023-08-25

Price Target

YTL Power International Berhad - Stellar Performance by Power Seraya Lifts Bottomline
Source : TA, Price Call : BUY, Price Target : 2.40
Last Price : 2.03, Upside/Downside : +0.37(18.23%)

Posted by jenson68 > 2023-08-28 11:04 | Report Abuse

Finally break TP 2.00 , congrats !!

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-28 11:24 | Report Abuse

YTL Yes launches today 2 new super attractive 5G packages with unlimited 5G data and uncapped speed for RM58 a month with no duration commitment and for RM99 a month with 24 month plan and a free 5G router (worth RM1,199).

Compared to a standard TM unifi wifi package of 300MBps at RM168.50 a month, the Yes 5G plan at RM99 a month will offer great savings while higher speeds supporting 6 devices. I am confident such a new Yes 5G plan will gradually grab market shares from TM unifi and other telcos' broadband wifi offerings.

A quick calculation shows that 1 million 5G subscribers at RM99/month will add revenue of RM99m a month or RM1.2 billion a year for Yes. Assuming 35% EBITDA margin (lower than TM EBITDA of 42% and CelcomDigi EBITDA of 46%), Yes would contribute EBITDA of RM420 million to YTLP a year.

Note: CelcomDigi postpaid 5G package is still higher priced than Yes if we add the RM10 extra fee to Celcom's RM98/mth and Digi's RM90/mth package.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-28 11:32 | Report Abuse

FYI, TM has 3.06 million unifi subscribers with average monthly fee of RM130. These will be the low hanging fruits for YTL Yes to target at.