Posted by troy88 > 2023-08-25 09:03 | Report Abuse

Crazy good results! Well done!

Posted by hng33 > 2023-08-25 09:04 | Report Abuse

sold back at 1.86

Posted by super911 > 2023-08-25 09:09 | Report Abuse

Congrats to all YTLP holders, again :D

Posted by Muyutin > 2023-08-25 09:10 | Report Abuse

BUY BACK AT 1.93

Posted by super911 > 2023-08-25 09:16 | Report Abuse

profit taking so well absorbed. :D

Posted by Tibbers > 2023-08-25 09:16 | Report Abuse

strong, might as well reach rm2.40 by the time ex date/entitlement of dividend

Posted by jenson68 > 2023-08-25 09:23 | Report Abuse

Wow… super power

Posted by jenson68 > 2023-08-25 09:24 | Report Abuse

TP 2.00 is otw …haha

Posted by troy88 > 2023-08-25 09:25 | Report Abuse

YTL group glory days are back!

Posted by paktua73 > 2023-08-25 09:30 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by moncmondo87 > 2023-08-25 09:31 | Report Abuse

Hello All ! NEMS Market Watch Report for 2nd Quarter 2023 issued yesterday. Adds support to Seraya's earnings growth - with increase in % market share of metered energy sold, and price of course. Replaces Senoko in rankings per market share %. Also, while Senoko's plant has many more MWs (I think ranked no.1 per % share of Max. gen cap, its gen units are older and have higher heat rates, so not as fuel-efficient as Seraya; so in coming quarters and given tight supply situation as highlighted by dragon328 above, who will benefit (?) ...

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-25 09:52 | Report Abuse

@moncmondo87 where to get the 2nd Q NEMS report?

Posted by moncmondo87 > 2023-08-25 09:54 | Report Abuse

myloh123, Correct ! If Keppel and SembCorp (and Meranti's 600MW) do not deliver on time, then Singapore has to seriously escalate importation from Malaysia in particular. So win-win for Seraya and YTLP, on both sides of the border 😁

Posted by beinvested > 2023-08-25 09:55 | Report Abuse

NTA is RM2.07 now

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-08-25 10:07 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-08-25 10:17 | Report Abuse

Dear dragon328,
Your previous posting.
Thank you.
Quote !!
By FY2024, I am projecting for:

1) PowerSeraya to report similar level of PBT of around RM800 million to RM1.0 billion a quarter
2) Wessex to report normalised PBT of RM130-170 million per quarter
3) 1st phase green data centre to contribute PBT of RM10-15 million per quarter, subsequent phases to contribute PBT of RM50-75m a quarter from FY2025
4) digital bank business to contribute PBT of around RM10-20 million per quarter
5) Jordan power is fully commissioned by then and contribute PBT of RM50 million per quarter

SO if we add up the above, PBT will top RM1,050 - 1,200 million per quarter, annualised to RM4.0 billion to RM4.8 billion a year.

After tax profit may be around RM3.0 billion to RM3.6 billion resulting in EPS of 35 sen to 45 sen.

Cashflows will be around RM4.0 billion a year or 50 sen per share, supporting dividend payouts of minimum 25 sen.

So at 5% dividend yield, YTLP should trade to RM5.00 per share, or at PER of 11x to 15x.
Unquote !!

Posted by moncmondo87 > 2023-08-25 10:49 | Report Abuse

cgtan2020, As follows -
https://www.home.emcsg.com/about-the-market/governance/market-surveillance-and-compliance/publications/market-watch

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-25 11:12 | Report Abuse

@moncmondo87 thank you

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-25 11:17 | Report Abuse

@Zhuge_Liang, looking at the latest Q4 result, I am revising my projections for YTLPower as follows:

1) PowerSeraya to report PBT of RM700-800 million per quarter for next 2 years at least to FY2025
2) Wessex to report PBT of RM130-170 million per quarter only from Q4 FY2024 after another water tariff revision
3) First phase green data centre to contribute PBT of RM25 million per quarter from 2024 (Note Hong Leong report today that reported on YTL management guidance of RM100m PBT from 1st phase green data centre)
4) Subsequent phases of green data centres (secured another 200MW) to start contributing PBT of RM100 million per quarter possibly from 2025
5) Jordan power to contribute PBT of RM50-100 million per quarter from Q1 FY2024 (Note Jordan Power contributed RM350m PBT in Q4 FY2023 due to some accruals of technical service income)
6) Rawang WTE plant to start contributing PBT of RM100 million per year from 2026 increasing to RM400 million per year after project debts are repaid
7) Digital bank JV to contribute PBT of RM25-30 million per quarter from 2026 (more optimistic now after seeing encouraging earnings growth in SEA Money digital bank)

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 46 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Dear dragon328,
Your previous posting.
Thank you.
Quote !!
By FY2024, I am projecting for:

1) PowerSeraya to report similar level of PBT of around RM800 million to RM1.0 billion a quarter
2) Wessex to report normalised PBT of RM130-170 million per quarter
3) 1st phase green data centre to contribute PBT of RM10-15 million per quarter, subsequent phases to contribute PBT of RM50-75m a quarter from FY2025
4) digital bank business to contribute PBT of around RM10-20 million per quarter
5) Jordan power is fully commissioned by then and contribute PBT of RM50 million per quarter

SO if we add up the above, PBT will top RM1,050 - 1,200 million per quarter, annualised to RM4.0 billion to RM4.8 billion a year.

After tax profit may be around RM3.0 billion to RM3.6 billion resulting in EPS of 35 sen to 45 sen.

Cashflows will be around RM4.0 billion a year or 50 sen per share, supporting dividend payouts of minimum 25 sen.

So at 5% dividend yield, YTLP should trade to RM5.00 per share, or at PER of 11x to 15x.
Unquote !!

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-08-25 11:20 | Report Abuse

Thank you dragon328.
Appreciate your hard work.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-25 11:23 | Report Abuse

So by 2025, YTLP should achieve total PBT of some RM1.1b to RM1.20 billion per quarter, annualised to RM4.5b to RM4.8 billion per year. Net profit should come in at about RM3.2 billion to RM3.6 billion a year or EPS of 40 sen to 45 sen.

Dividend should be 15 sen at least for FY2024 to meet YTL dividend requirement. Operating cashflows should be over 30 sen a year, supporting dividend payouts of 15-18 sen a year.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-25 11:28 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 with EPS of 50 sen, anything below RM2.00 is super cheap now, well can it sustain for the next 5 years? Got to wait for another 8 quarters to see.😀

Posted by beinvested > 2023-08-25 11:29 | Report Abuse

A little bit from the divinity :-

It was written 3,000 years ago, by King David. The messiah come from his family.

The mobile phone/wired or wireless telephone voice conversation/the internet/emails were clearly prophesied by him. In verse 4 already.

Also, the earth is protected by the LORD when He built a layer of Protection (tent/coverage) from overheating caused from the sun. When the sun is an inch closer to the earth, all of us will be burned. The Creator of the earth is amazing.

(NIV)
Psalm 19 -
For the director of music. A psalm of David.
1 The heavens declare the glory of God;
the skies proclaim the work of his hands.
2 Day after day they pour forth speech;
night after night they reveal knowledge.
3 They have no speech, they use no words;
no sound is heard from them.
4 Yet their voice[b] goes out into all the earth,
their words to the ends of the world.
In the heavens God has pitched a tent for the sun.

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-08-25 11:30 | Report Abuse

@hoplanner Here is the Kenanga's report on YTLP, TP @ RM1.85 (of course this is before the latest 4thQR).

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/08/16/strong-q4-results-forecast-for-ytl-power

Be mindful and don't let greed motivate one to chase high.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-25 11:30 | Report Abuse

My projections above may seem over bullish but even my best estimates (RM700-800m PBT) for Q4 FY2023 has been handsomely beaten by actual YTLP results. As always, the market is skeptical of such stellar quarterly results from YTLP, as they were in May 2023 when YTLP reported net profit that beat the street by a few miles.

Local analysts as usual are reluctant to upgrade YTLP after they kept a bearish view for too long and most of them missed the early upgrade cycle, so it is only natural for them to remain skeptical. Foreign analysts are more agile in upgrading, like the case of Sembcorp for which Singapore analysts from UOB or DBS have been active in revising numbers up.

Only Hong Leong research house is non-bias enough to upgrade YTLP as the numbers show. CIMB and Maybank remain silent so far as they may have issued too many call warrants and have been under-hedged with the mother share.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-25 11:31 | Report Abuse

Ya don't chase high, but stay invested for long term to reap the best benefit.

Posted by beinvested > 2023-08-25 11:34 | Report Abuse

The temperature in the middle of the sun (the Power) is 15,000,000 celsius.

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-08-25 11:35 | Report Abuse

Wah targeted price works out to b rm2.80 to rm 3.15 based on pe 7.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-25 11:35 | Report Abuse

@cgtan2020, I would be happy if YTLP could report EPS of 40 sen, not dreaming of 50 sen in near future.

Again, the stock needs time to get re-rated. We may have to wait for Q1 FY2024 result to come out in Nov 2023 to see if earnings from PowerSeraya can sustain at RM700-800m PBT, then only analysts will upgrade the profit projections for FY2024 to RM2.4 billion or more.

Now even the most bullish analysts like Hong Leong and Affin only projects net profit of RM2.0b and RM2.2b for FY2024. Again patience is the key.

Posted by idkdontaskmelol > 2023-08-25 11:37 | Report Abuse

Kenanga new TP 2.14 ma

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-08-25 11:39 | Report Abuse

Dear dragon328,
Is your projection regarding the share price of YTLPower at 5.00 in 2024 still valid ?
Please advise.

Posted by beinvested > 2023-08-25 11:40 | Report Abuse

The temperature from the middle of the sun to the shell, reduced to 2,000,000 celsius.

Outside the shell, the temperature dropped to 6,000 celsius. Amazing.

From the area, the heat travel all the way to the earth, reduced until average 30 degree celsius. So we don't get burned/freezed.

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-08-25 11:40 | Report Abuse

D328, yep im long, not selling until price hits rm 3+ n along with d handsome dividends too.

Posted by stockprincess > 2023-08-25 11:46 | Report Abuse

CIMB report just out, TP RM2.40

Posted by beinvested > 2023-08-25 11:47 | Report Abuse

3,000 years ago there was no YTL power, WiFi, solar power, fibre optic, internet, telephone, Telekom...King David already mentioned/prophesied that these will come to pass. No other reason/contention except the Divinity in God's word.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-08-25 11:49 | Report Abuse

Dear dragon328,
What is the target price quoted by HLIB ?
Please advise.

Posted by John Lu > 2023-08-25 11:50 | Report Abuse

Sell on news

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-25 12:01 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?file=de0a1a1b-521a-43ec-b3c3-c34282e5f3b2 CIMB report TP 2.40

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-25 12:12 | Report Abuse

@Zhuge_Liang, Hong Leong tp for YTLP is RM2.90

Maybank report is also out, TP raised to RM2.30. The good thing is that Maybank has raised net profit projection for YTPower to over RM2.6 billion for FY2024 or EPS of 32 sen. The issue is it uses Sum-of-Parts (SOP) valuation that comes out with a low TP of RM2.30 implying a PER of 7.2x on its own FY2024 earnings projection.

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-08-25 12:13 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 Thank you for sharing the HLIB report. much appreciated.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-25 12:13 | Report Abuse

TA TP is 2.40, everyone is upgrade YTLPower

Posted by hng33 > 2023-08-25 12:15 | Report Abuse

CIMB estimate YTLP quarterly profit of RM524m, in 2014 before tapering by 10% in FY25F as we assume contracts get renewed at lower margins to reflect some normalisation in electricity and gas prices.

Current wholesale price have trim by more than 60% in Q3 if compared to Q2 and even lower than Q1 earlier by 20%. Wholesale price is real time reflection on spot electricity price and based on spot gas price. The lower wholesale price compare to contract price will eventually affect contract price to lower their price once due for renewal for every 6 month for short contract. YTLP overdependency on single power seraya profit contributor is too sensitive to any price adjustment downward forward.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-25 12:16 | Report Abuse

@Zhuge-Liang, my own target price for YTLP is of course higher than the local analysts' numbers. My earlier projection for YTLP share price to hit RM5.00 by 2025 was based on EPS of 40 sen and PER of 12.5x.

But apparently local analysts are reluctant to upgrade their target price to beyond RM3.00 for now. It may take time.

Again, you should assess the risks and rewards of investing, and not based on my TP.

Posted by hng33 > 2023-08-25 12:20 | Report Abuse

Key downside risk: sharper-than-expected normalisation in electricity sales margins once Singapore start import massive cheap electricity from Malaysia soon

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-25 12:23 | Report Abuse

@cgtan2020, thanks for the CIMB report.

CIMB projects net profit of RM2.0 billion only for FY2024 based on its assumption that PowerSeraya earnings will be lower from FY2024 onwards compared to FY2023. Again, it seems like YTLP management has failed to convince analysts on the sustainability of PowerSeraya earnings at the result briefing last evening.

Anyway, I see this as a good thing as it leaves room for further upgrades come Nov when YTLP is expected to post another set of stellar results.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-08-25 12:23 | Report Abuse

Dear dragon328,
Thank you for your reply.
Do not worry, I know the risk very well.
I also do my homework to verify my calculation on EPS for FY2024 and FY2025.
I requested your figures to ensure I do not want to be super bullish on this stock.
I appreciate your kind reply.

Posted by moncmondo87 > 2023-08-25 12:25 | Report Abuse

Only KAF TP has come in below RM2 so far..

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-25 12:30 | Report Abuse

@idkdontaskmelol you have link to the Kenanga Report?

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-08-25 12:36 | Report Abuse

hng33

How to import massively cheap electricity when capacity not enough. Can you tell me when it will happen 2030!!!

Posted by hng33 > 2023-08-25 12:44 | Report Abuse

It is bias if only wish highlight positive factors and chart unrealistic continue elevated electricity price through locked in contract despite gas price have normalize and gov keen to boots up supply via massive import cheap electricity from oversea and refuse to accept downside risk