Choivo Capital
(CHOIVO CAPITAL) Why Business Sense is not enough. (JAKS)
Choivo Capital
Publish date: Tue, 21 Aug 2018, 11:18 PM
What has there not been said about JAKS?
Koon Yew Yin have been posting from heaven and earth about the wonders of JAKS. He even brought Ooi Teik Bee, and a big group of people to go visit the place.
However, for all that, i think he missed out a very crucial bit of research.
Just how profitable will that powerplant be?
For some reason, people here, including the great ICON8888, one of the few people i consider to be the best in the trading, investing and speculating game in Malaysia,
( I personally really respect how deep he researches and how he stuck to his guns in Airasia, all the way down from Rm3 to RM2.1, saying how RM3 is the correct price, he held and averaged down),
seem to think the profit is self evident. I personally dont think so.
One of the easiest example i can give is Ekovest. Guess how much Ekovest made from the highway division after income expense. Take a minute if you need.
Just below RM10mil a year. Now, i concede there may be some high ways not yet fully tolled or completed, but its definitely not as much as you think.
The Enterprise Value for that high way is in the billions. The returns need to be at least RM100-150 million net. And its far far far from that figure.
So lets do some math for Jaks.
When mathematics meets business sense
The Facts:
1) Loan of RM5.6 billion
2) Coal Plant with capacity of 1,200 MW
3) 40% ownership by Jaks of the powerplant.
4) Vietname Dong term loan rate of 7.5%
You may argue the loan is done in RMB or USD and thus may have lower rates, but there is something called "Interest Rate Parity".
Which means the interest rate differential between two countries is equal to the differential between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate.
If one country offers a higher risk-free rate of return in one currency than that of another, the country that offers the higher risk-free rate of return will be exchanged at a more expensive future price than the current spot price. In other words, the interest rate parity presents an idea that there is no arbitrage in the foreign exchange markets. Investors cannot lock in the current exchange rate in one currency for a lower price and then purchase another currency from a country offering a higher interest rate.
Basically, if you get lower interest rates, you will lose out via foreign exchange loss, if you get higher rate, you will set it off a little via foreign exchange gain. So, we are using Vietnam Rate.
Interest Expense
Now, the loan is RM5.6 bil. At 7.5%, that is RM420mil a year in interest cost.
Earning Capacity of Power Plant
Now, what is the earning capacity of the 1,200 MW Coal fired plant. Well, for our reference, we are going to use Malakoff. Why?
TNB, i cannot find the figure for the effective installed electrical capcity for this company, and its one of the better ones as well, may be too optimistic.
YTLPOWER, this is a rubbish power plant company, that division actually made a small loss unless lumped together with their other utilities.
And so, Malakoff.
Malakoff has effective installed capacity world wide of roughly 6,346MW world wide. Malakoff profit before finance cost is about RM1 bil a year. Now, lets give JAKS a chance, the profit figure for Malakoff have dropped a bit subsequently with a few one off items and power shortage etc.
We will use Malakoff's record breaking IPO figure, where everyone have massaged properly to show a beautiful RM1.3bil profit before finance expense.
Assuming JAKS can charge Malakoff level rates. Prorated (taking into account Malakoff have much higher capcity of 6,346MW worldwide) their 1,200MW can make RM245mil. So a loss of RM 175mil a year before tax.
And this assumes full capacity usage every day. Also do note Malakoff have gas fired plants, which are sometimes cheaper to run.
So, chances are JAKS got a contract where all the earnings will go to paying the interest to the banks, not counting principal repayment. And their equity may need to throw rubbish bin, as there is a potential loss of RM175 mil a year before tax.
No wonder China let them make some profit on the construction.
Other Business Sense Points
-
Do you think that a power plant will run 100% smoothly with no issue on first run? Are you so sure that they can get abnormally good electricty rates? Do you know how much money is flowing into Vietnam now to building more power plants? Do you know how many power plants basically went bankrupt in China and the US.
You think Vietnam so nice like Malaysia, will give them a monopoly like TNB?
-
Do you think just because Chinese bank give funding project will be profitable? Do you know that ICBC, the biggest bank in the world, is only valued at 6 PE? Why do you think that is the case? Why every year their loan book go up, revenue up but profit is exactly the same or less?
Because ICBC and Chinese banks is essentially strong armed by the chinese goverment, their biggest shareholder to fund these unprofitable projects
Did you know ICBC and other chinese banks funded a multi billion dollar port in Sri Lanka that only has one ship a day? Did you know they also funded a multi billion dollar airport that has less than 30 planes land a month?
These are also the banks that were willing to fund the HSR, whose projected revenue cannot even cover interest cost.
China is more than willng to run the "One Belt, One Road" policy at a loss. Because its purpose is not profitability, but strategic. They are more than happy to build these nationally important assets, and pseudo-nationalize them when they cant pay back.
The goal is strategic and nationally sensitive assets worldwide (do note "Strategic" means "Unprofitable", FGV also did alot of "Strategic" investment, see where they are now), and a way to fill up their industrial overcapacity, and thus prevent defaults in their levered up state run companies.
You think china like to donate money is it? Give free profitable contract?
Show me one scenario worldwide, where China financed a project, that did not properly fuck over the other party financially. Just one.
They borrow money to countries that cannot pay back, because the strategic favour, power, leverage or national asset they can get in exchange, in their opinion, far exceed the economic value.
I dare you. Find me just one that was profitable for the other party.
There is a reason why JAKS or HSR cannot get loans from Malaysian banks, despite the banks being now incredibly flush with cash. Because Malaysian banks actually want to be paid back with a profit.
Conclusion
Koon Yew Yin may have been a good businessman, but i dont think he's a good investor, like many successful businessman (Vincent Tan for example). He may know how to create wealth, but sure cant invest for wealth.
He is at most a very rich goreng artist.
Those who cannot create wealth, must invest, and this man is so good at business, he never needed to learn how to invest. And he was so rich, he could learn to just goreng.
ICON8888, well, i think he's very shrewd. He will be around long enough to average down and just ride the technical rebound. But I doubt he will be around Jaks when the plant is starting.
====================================================================
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Website: www.choivocapital.com
Email: choivocapital@gmail.com
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Discussions
7 people like this. Showing 50 of 57 comments
Uncle koon 100x, also cannot even touch 10% of Warren buffet wor, how.?
Hahaha
You know, when I see uncle koon and all the money he has, and I look at myself, and the capital I have compared to him, I can't help but think, wah, God is fair.
Considering what I have in exchange, let him keep the money lah. His mischiefs in the market is set off by his donations anyway.
Serifah, no idea. However, mfcb funded most of their ipp internally. Cash vs borrowing is very different. Having said that, for mfcb to go from Rm1.5 to rm2.5, split and get where it was till today, took more than 10 years.
In fact, their plants in China and Malaysia were built in 1995 and 1996,so almost 20 year gestation period.
You sure it's guaranteed, and you sure will make money? Kyy say want to hold long term, and he can barely hold one year.
How sure are you? If guaranteed irr more than 10%, the whole world also pour money in to build, reducing how attractive it can be due to the much increased supply.
Jaks need 2 more years to finish. You sure the economics still the same?
============
Alex™ I only know uncle Koon is richer.
22/08/2018 08:31
Koon Bee Talk like you have few hundred million in bank
22/08/2018 08:38
SarifahSelinder Jon
IRR 12% even loan interest 7.5% still profit kan?
U doubt IRR 12% not real ni will affect MFCB IPP in Vietnam too kan?
U saying MFCB punya Vietnam IPP pun also x profit?
Both JAKS dan MFCB pun x faham IRR?
22/08/2018 08:38
Jon Choivo
2018-08-22 10:00
That is maybe 30% Guranteed.
100% guaranteed, well, dont want tell you lol. Hahahhaha
===
DK66 If you want 100% guaranteed stock, buy Rsena.
22/08/2018 10:18
2018-08-22 10:29
@ Jon Chiovo
Correct me if I'm wrong.
Not sure how Malakoff compute the RM1.3 bil before interest. SOme variables are different between the power plant in Vietnam and Malakoff's.
If based on a simple and conservative calculation,
1,200MW would generate approximately USD515 mil profit before expense
Breakdown
----------
1,200MW= 1,200,000 (kW)
Estimate rate charge= USD0.07 kWH
Assume only 70% utilisation
1,200,000 X 0.7 X 24hrs X USD0.07 X 365 days
= USD515,000,000 (rounded figure)
2018-08-22 11:33
the horse always will shout after seeing the canon behind ma....
as if it predicted it all the while....
just ask to recommend 2 or 3 stocks. all and each giving returns above 10% per annum would do...
Posted by Alex™ > Aug 22, 2018 11:35 AM | Report Abuse
aiya ah jon, talk so much, I still waiting u recommend stock
2018-08-22 11:39
Actually, YTL POWER figures in year 2000 are better than Malakoff calculation when the power plant with 1,212 MW (Paka & pasir gudang) was used for calculation.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/3992717
2018-08-22 11:43
Jon, are u still with petron?
Since petdag good quarter, will petron/hy follow same good earning as well?
2018-08-22 11:46
I think perhaps Jon chivo analysis on kyy is correct loh...!!
Kyy as goreng kaki got some business sense loh....but as an investor no business sense at all loh....!!
2018-08-22 11:49
aiyo raider...kyy only need that much of business sense to goreng ma..so that people buy to his business sense..
complicated business sense no one will buy...kiki
2018-08-22 11:54
Alex, my picks I think are some are cheap,but close to fair value, the others are around fair value a little higher.
As I am a long term net buyer of these companies. What I want is lower prices not higher ones.
Why should I tell you, and potentially raise my cost? Why should I write for people here to understand and to buy?
You think my name is kyy, or bonescythe or icon8888, write d, when price go up, sell to you?
Tell you what, you pay me 5k, I'll tell you my best pick and share the full research with you.
Or, you invest 50k in my fund with 5 years lock, and I'll share my full research I give my Investors as well. And you can goreng me everyday on WhatsApp.
====
Posted by Alex™ > Aug 22, 2018 11:35 AM | Report Abuse
aiya ah jon, talk so much, I still waiting u recommend stock
2018-08-22 11:54
what is this guy trying to do I have no idea....
KYY do not need so much business sense to sailang in Jaks....He has its business sense.
As for me....my business sense makes me at least 5 round on Jaks already ....the last time sold at the top and even wrote to a friend to sell at $ 1.70 and never look back.
2018-08-22 11:58
Bought more actually, but it's only a 5% position.
Don't ask me question about next quarter or next 2 quarter. I don't know and I didn't research in that direction because its a waste of time.
I studied the long term characteristics of it, and it's interesting. Why, I won't tell you. Haha.
If it becomes expensive, I'll share out the research, because I like the business and would like to hold even if is close to fair value. And in cases like those, I need to find out if some of my thinking is correct.
At this price, it's cheap enough that I don't need to be 100% right.
===
Posted by newbie911 > Aug 22, 2018 11:46 AM | Report Abuse
Jon, are u still with petron?
Since petdag good quarter, will petron/hy follow same good earning as well?
2018-08-22 11:58
apu...mau bayar 5k kah? ah jon track record can see? 5k significant investment leh… I poorfag only
2018-08-22 12:01
I just took ipo profit before tax and add back the interest cost. The rest I assume is the cost to run the plant.
Its not 100% correct, but it's a decent estimate. And you don't need to know the weight of a woman to know if he's or the age of a man to know if he is old.
You gave me the revenue with the calculation below. Maintainence? Staff cost? Laying down of transmission line? Coal cost etc etc?
To top it off, power plant cspex usually exceed depreciation. So you need to consider that.
===
Posted by newbie8080 > Aug 22, 2018 11:33 AM | Report Abuse
@ Jon Chiovo
Correct me if I'm wrong.
Not sure how Malakoff compute the RM1.3 bil before interest. SOme variables are different between the power plant in Vietnam and Malakoff's.
If based on a simple and conservative calculation,
1,200MW would generate approximately USD515 mil profit before expense
Breakdown
----------
1,200MW= 1,200,000 (kW)
Estimate rate charge= USD0.07 kWH
Assume only 70% utilisation
1,200,000 X 0.7 X 24hrs X USD0.07 X 365 days
= USD515,000,000 (rounded figure)
2018-08-22 12:02
Sorry then, I wish you all the best. You can find me on Facebook, and we can talk abit there.
This may sound arrogant. But you may consider reading some of my earlier comments and post.
Amid all the rubbish I say, something interesting or useful occasionally slips out. Or things I don't intend to let people know. I do get caught in the heat of the moment sometimes.
Good luck. May you survive in the market for a long long time. When it comes to investing, you just need to be in the market for a long enough time, it's a marathon, not a race.
===
Posted by Alex™ > Aug 22, 2018 12:01 PM | Report Abuse
apu...mau bayar 5k kah? ah jon track record can see? 5k significant investment leh… I poorfag only
2018-08-22 12:06
aiya, alex sadding la. no money no talk la~ it's like that one la. I understand
2018-08-22 12:07
The price can go to 3 tmr and I still don't give a damn.
I only want to know this, can anyone prove to me demonstrably, via logic or numbers, that the power plant have a high probability to be very profitable even after interest cost and tax.
That proves me wrong. And I'm happy to be wrong. Because then I can shut up, and go buy more.
====
Posted by stockraider > Aug 22, 2018 12:02 PM | Report Abuse
A classic no business sense investment loh...!!
Mark this jon chivo recommendation of jaks is rm 0.97 loh....!!
2018-08-22 12:08
put it this way...some one who don't share KYY attitude and business sense will not have reached the place he did.
the guy hunts at the edges , sailang and margin and all that.
that is his forte.
if you only hunt in the middle, his game is not for you.
2018-08-22 12:11
kyy bought too much and too fast.
he eventually admitted to it.
but having bought so much so fast...his options are limited.
2018-08-22 12:14
All of kyy big picks, liihen, vs, latitude. All come from kcc.
His own picks, jaks, sendai, xinquan, jtiasa, mudajaya, kianjoo, can one, all go Holland.
He got to today, because he was a sharp businessman, and he took high risk in business, and among the thousands who tried, through skill, grit, hardwork, viciousness, relationship and luck.
He made it.
And top it off, he sailang in during Hong Kong Market crash.
His track record is clear. And it's far from satisfactory.
The only positive i see is he sailang in Hong Kong, and he had the brains to hold on to kcc picks long enough.
2018-08-22 12:15
My bank and most precious asset is my brain.
And I definitely got a at least a few hundred million more brain cells than you.
Hahahaha. I kid, I kid.
I really shouldn't respond to things like this. Aih.
======
Posted by Koon Bee > Aug 22, 2018 08:38 AM | Report Abuse
Talk like you have few hundred million in bank
2018-08-22 12:23
When people slander kcc, without rebutting his arguement point by pint in a logical manner.
That's when I know should listen to what he says.
When logic fails, one relies on slander, personal and ad hominem attacks.
Thats why raider call me pondan, or icon say I no adventure spirit, wah I must be on right track.
Why would icon say something like that if he can just show his logic and figures, and make me look like a fool?
I think he didnt even consider if the power plant will really be that profitable loh. Just too expected future demand, and whatever estimates done by a 25 year old analyst fresh out of university.
2018-08-22 12:29
@ Jon Choivo
I believe no one can prove anything as running a power plant differs from another. No one can provide exact computation for that matter.
But, I do believe that the expense or overhead cost that you mentioned would definitely would not exceed the entire revenue of USD515 mil which I computed earlier.
In addition, the depreciation you mentioned is normally amortised through the BOT period which in this case more than 20 years. Not a big figure as you expected.
2018-08-22 12:29
kcc is a book worm with no business sense....and lacks local knowledge.....in any case, never liked people who choose to cari makan the way he do.....He so good , no need customers.
but I know...people who knows do, people who don't teach......hahaha
2018-08-22 12:34
He does invest his own money and help manage people's money. So yes he "do". What bs you spouting off now.
I really should stop responding to these kind of inane zero value comments by retirees with nothing to do.
===
Posted by qqq3 > Aug 22, 2018 12:34 PM | Report Abuse
kcc is a book worm with no business sense....and lacks local knowledge.....in any case, never liked people who choose to cari makan the way he do.....He so good , no need customers.
but I know...people who knows do, people who don't teach......hahaha
2018-08-22 12:37
Correct. Its very hard to know, unless you go talk to people very familiar of the IPP industry, and especially in foreign nations.
In the meantime, since you have conceded you do not know anything about it, like myself, beyond some conjectures, gut feeling and rough estimates.
Its a gamble. Treat it as such. If you're icon or raider, and you think sentiment will pick up, you can sailang in and sell to the potential greater fool.
Or you can just buy a small position based on your gut that should be profitable, hold for a few years. And find out if your right or wrong and see what you can learn from it.
Also, I mean mantainence Capex. Go and study power plant companies. You will notice that their mantainence Capex is usually higher than their depreciation cost.
===
Posted by newbie8080 > Aug 22, 2018 12:29 PM | Report Abuse
@ Jon Choivo
I believe no one can prove anything as running a power plant differs from another. No one can provide exact computation for that matter.
But, I do believe that the expense or overhead cost that you mentioned would definitely would not exceed the entire revenue of USD515 mil which I computed earlier.
In addition, the depreciation you mentioned is normally amortised through the BOT period which in this case more than 20 years. Not a big figure as you expected.
2018-08-22 12:38
jon...you have ambition to be paid sifus yourself too....I choose wrong guy to talk to.
2018-08-22 17:47
Posted by Jon Choivo > Aug 22, 2018 12:15 PM | Report Abuse
All of kyy big picks, liihen, vs, latitude. All come from kcc.
Ans :
All win big stock picks in 2015 came from me.
I am sorry to claim credit.
I just want to set the record right.
Thank you.
Ooi
2018-08-22 17:52
I knew how much Mr Koon win big in 2015 on VS, Liihen, Latitud, Hevea, Gkent and Gamuda-WE.
The loss in Jaks is nothing if compared against the gain in 2015.
Thank you.
Ooi
2018-08-22 17:53
Hmm gkent and gamuda we is definitely you. The rest I'm not sure, I'm pretty sure I read a post by kc or something long time ago.
I wasn't active in the market or the forums then.
In any event, I don't think you will purposely claim credit unless you are sure.
Well, the point still stands on the track record of his personal picks.
===
Ans :
All win big stock picks in 2015 came from me.
I am sorry to claim credit.
I just want to set the record right.
Thank you.
Ooi
Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Aug 22, 2018 05:53 PM | Report Abuse
I knew how much Mr Koon win big in 2015 on VS, Liihen, Latitud, Hevea, Gkent and Gamuda-WE.
The loss in Jaks is nothing if compared against the gain in 2015.
Thank you.
Ooi
2018-08-22 17:57
Yeah, people pay me handle their funds. But the structure incentivezes me to manage it as if its my own money.
Its not a secret, no idea why it seems to be a big surprise to you.
By that metric, I must be stalin now in your eyes. Hahahahahaha
====
Posted by qqq3 > Aug 22, 2018 05:47 PM | Report Abuse
jon...you have ambition to be paid sifus yourself too....I choose wrong guy to talk to.
2018-08-22 18:00
Posted by Jon Choivo > Aug 22, 2018 05:57 PM | Report Abuse
Hmm gkent and gamuda we is definitely you. The rest I'm not sure, I'm pretty sure I read a post by kc or something long time ago.
I wasn't active in the market or the forums then.
In any event, I don't think you will purposely claim credit unless you are sure.
Well, the point still stands on the track record of his personal picks.
Ans :
Mr Koon requested me to do a market talk presentation with him on 13/12/2014 at Calvary Church at Bukit Jalil.
All aforesaid stocks were recommended by me, he was so excited on all these stocks I selected.
Many of these stocks were selected for my 2015 stock pick competition which end up I was the champion with 129% ROI.
I do not wish to boast here, I wish to set the records right only.
Thank you.
Ooi
2018-08-22 18:05
I did not pick those stocks for him.
I was "sacked" as his portfolio manager. It was written clearly here.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/110836.jsp
By the way, even if it was me, I don't feel proud nor happy about it.
I was damn glad I was involved in it. Seriously.
2018-08-22 18:10
Posted by qqq3 > Aug 22, 2018 12:34 PM | Report Abuse
kcc is a book worm with no business sense....and lacks local knowledge.....in any case, never liked people who choose to cari makan the way he do.....He so good , no need customers.
but I know...people who knows do, people who don't teach......hahaha
I no business sense, you got heaps? I have written a number of articles about what I think business sense is, here are some of them,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/134621.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/125145.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/123266.jsp
Have your articulated what your "Bullshit" is?
Cari makan? I guess you don't understand the joy of passing something good to the young people. It is a social service. Teachers are the greatest people around.
2018-08-22 18:15
Kcchong,
Do not waste your valuable time with qqq3, he has no value to us.
I do not wish to waste my time to listen to his bullshit.
If he is so good, he will not attack both of us to claim credit.
Respect has to be earned, but not given free.
Whoever teach me any useful thing in my life, he is always my sifu.
Thank you Kcchong.
Ooi
2018-08-22 18:21
When a person is older and has nothing to fear, the natural behaviors of the person become more obvious. Kyy is an authentic leader. He is passionate, intolerable, persistent and a super confident guy. He has some good CEO characters that allow him to succeed in business, especially doing things he can influence the outcome. Not many people can stand him though.. friend can be enemy tomorrow ...and the only person he listens to is his wife :). If he sits in JAKS' board, ALP will be fired within 3 months...
It is a complete different story when it comes to investment world where he has little influence in the market.
2018-08-22 18:39
Is the agreement between Jaks and CPECC, and power purchase agreement ever being published? Just curious what are the terms and conditions.
2018-08-23 09:35
If Kyy is a good businessman, he would not need to be a share goreng man for decades. He would still be a principal shareholders in one of the engineering outfits Gamuda, IJM, Mudajaya et al which he claimed he founded plus very rich and respected in society. He would be a wealth builder for investors, a model boss to employees, an esteemed taxpayer to the government but instead, what is he at age 85? A cari wang con artiste.
2018-08-23 10:26
Koon Yew Yin may have been a good businessman, but i think he's a rubbish investor, like many successful businessman (Vincent Tan for example). He may know how to create wealth, but sure cant invest for wealth.
This comment is very unfair. who never loss in share market?
he is able to take the risk based on his evaluation. if you are at his standard, please stay away from his portfolio.
what i want to say everyone has it own risk factors. select wisely that all.
2018-08-23 14:11
the second type of guy is businessman mentality. u can fail 10 times but the 1 time u succeed, u cover all your losses, u turn around
2018-08-23 15:20
Even I I dont like jaks , but I laughing this author what he write , do you think Cpecc idiot? Do you think jaks manager idiot more than you ? Do you think your ?do you think your? This Jon choivo is so arrogant . This idiot one day would pokai in lokang believe me , mark my word.
2018-08-24 09:31
Henry kissenger, the very illustrious former secretary of state for the US, was on the Board of Directors for Theranos, the now defunct company that was built on a scam.
His nephew worked for the company, and found out it was a scam, and reported it to the media.
Henry did not believe him and helped the company fire him.
I don't care who is the director, i need to be able to understand and see the future profitability and cashflow clearly.
There is no need for personal attacks. Just show the facts, figures and logic. If its right, its likely to be obvious, then you dont need to say anything more. People one look see know you right. I also can go buy some shares.
====
Posted by PotentialGhost > Aug 24, 2018 09:31 AM | Report Abuse
Even I I dont like jaks , but I laughing this author what he write , do you think Cpecc idiot? Do you think jaks manager idiot more than you ? Do you think your ?do you think your? This Jon choivo is so arrogant . This idiot one day would pokai in lokang believe me , mark my word.
2018-08-24 09:40
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okok, alex listen ah jon. ah jon also 100x
2018-08-22 09:43