Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-09 15:49 | Report Abuse

@hng33, you missed the point and missed the fact. The exposure to wholesale market is less than 10%, never at 30%.

Vesting contract price is adjusted every 3 months according to gas prices and FX, and all gencos hedge almost 100% of their vesting contract requirement on both forward gas prices and FX, so gas price fluctuations never affect gencos' earnings from vesting contracts which thelselves are just a form of Contract-for-Differences (CfD). You may want to download the relevant documents on vesting contracts from EMA website to understand better.


It may be right to say that wholesale prices for July-Sept 2023 quarter will be lower than that of April-June 2023 quarter as TPC kicked in from 1st July 2023. Again, it will affect the margin from long generation that sells into the wholesale market, which I estimate is lower than 5% of overall PowerSeraya earnings.

Posted by Agjl > 2023-08-09 15:50 | Report Abuse

The weak holders get flushed out

Posted by Agjl > 2023-08-09 15:50 | Report Abuse

Top up again when others running scare

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-08-09 15:50 | Report Abuse

Posted by dragon328 > 22 hours ago | Report Abuse
Why the rush to sapu 2.8m shares at 1.55 last minute?
--------------------
This investor has no luck to buy 2.8m shares at 1.55.
I think he must know some information to rush in to buy at last minute.
Good luck to him.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-09 15:51 | Report Abuse

@xiaochen, well said.

PS高盈利的关键，是在于电力高需求，导致电供量吃紧。
PS高盈利的关键，是在于电力高需求，导致电供量吃紧。
PS高盈利的关键，是在于电力高需求，导致电供量吃紧。

我个人是不放大USEP的因素，因为2021年，10-12月USEP也是非常的高。2021年，PS并没有高获利。

2022下半年，7-12月，和20231-3月的分别也都差不多一样。但是为何2023 1-3月的盈利会暴涨？电供吃紧咯。

Posted by juon > 2023-08-09 15:51 | Report Abuse

IBs say thank you for Hng33 effort

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-08-09 15:51 | Report Abuse

i think big funds taking profit. RM 1.50 is a good price for those funds who what to cash out.
i3 does not have so much influence on share price. Hopefully EPF done their selling...

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-08-09 15:52 | Report Abuse

为何YTL的CEO放话，未来两年YTL可以豪派9.5c的高股息？
不是因为未来两年的USEP会非常高（这个没有人可以预测的），而是因为未来两年，新加坡的供电会持续吃紧。
加上高气温，让电供更加吃紧。
这也是为什么我们要比较关注，新的发电厂，什么时候会提供服务的主要原因。

Posted by VincentTang > 2023-08-09 15:54 | Report Abuse

Luckily bought YTLPOWER at 1.47.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-09 15:56 | Report Abuse

hng33, you can blame me on trying to defend the stock causing you not able to buy back at lower prices.

But the volume is so big that the share price does not go up just bcoz a few words that I said, or the share price will go down just bcoz of the few remarks you made. YTL share price rally from RM0.70 when I first made the buy call last May until RM1.50 today is because YTLP has shown the numbers and big funds are getting to recognise it. Today 32 million shares of volume is no small fish playing.

Posted by Agjl > 2023-08-09 15:59 | Report Abuse

For a sustainable uptrend, profit taking has to take place at some point, its healthy for the next uptrend. 1.70 shld be the next target

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-08-09 16:00 | Report Abuse

新加坡的电供，本来是稳稳妥妥的，demand/supply是健康的。
不过，意想不到的El Niño，让电供意外地吃紧，所以才导致今年1-3月的电费爆高。
所以，PS以及其他电商能获利，主要推手，是El Niño。

Posted by Muyutin > 2023-08-09 16:07 | Report Abuse

SELLER GETTING LESSER AND LESSER

LIMIT UP TWICE ANYTIME FOR ME IS NO PROBLEM RM1.52+30%=RM1.98(1ST LIMIT UP)
RM1.98+30%=RM2.57(2ND LIMIT UP)B4 SEPTEMBER 2023

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-08-09 16:08 | Report Abuse

@hng33 @dragon328， both of you can have a big impact on the YTLP share price.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-09 16:10 | Report Abuse

Anyone doing detail analysis of the USEP Q to Q and see how YTLP power Seraya Q to Q profits correlate to each other? @xiaochen @hng33 @dragon328

Posted by probability > 2023-08-09 16:14 | Report Abuse

you need to add fuel cost and supply tightness (or demand) into the factors affecting margin, not including hedging and long term contracts they may have...

Posted by cgtan2020 > Aug 9, 2023 4:10 PM | Report Abuse

Anyone doing detail analysis of the USEP Q to Q and see how YTLP power Seraya Q to Q profits correlate to each other? @xiaochen @hng33 @dragon328

Posted by Muyutin > 2023-08-09 16:34 | Report Abuse

Every SINGAPOREAN CHANGE TO EV SUPPLY TIGHT OR NOT

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-08-09 16:59 | Report Abuse

YTL closed 4 year high today...better own both and wait for the good results

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-09 17:16 | Report Abuse

@Muyutin, EV car charging can have a big impact on power demand especially in a country like Singapore.

For example, if there are 100,000 EVs charging at night using a 10kW charger at home, the power demand will go up by:
100,000 x 10 kW = 1,000 MW

The average power demand at night in Singapore is about 6,000-6,500MW, so an additional 1,000MW power demand would be a significant 15% increase in night demand.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-09 17:17 | Report Abuse

Singapore has about 2 million households, and if 5% has EVs then the potential demand is for 100,000 EVs. If 10% households have EVs then the demand will go up to 200,000 EVs and 2,000MW power demand

Posted by Muyutin > 2023-08-09 17:26 | Report Abuse

D328,,10S FYI BUT NO ENOUGH

HOW TO PUSH YTLP TO RM5

Posted by bullrun2025 > 2023-08-09 18:07 | Report Abuse

Hopefully hng33 buy in tomorrow, and push price to this year new high

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-08-09 19:47 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow 1.60

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-09 21:12 | Report Abuse

@Muyutin, I am not trying and not able to push YTLP to RM5.00. We can just wait for it to run its course and time will tell. Along the way there will be skeptical people and remarks, YTLP just needs to demonstrate that the company will be able to make EPS of 30 sen or more a year and declare dividends of 15 sen or more for FY2024 and FY2025. Then only analysts and fund managers will be convinced of its earnings power and strong cashflows.

We talk so much now, there is no use. It is not for us to prove anything, but for the company to prove and its Chairman to prove his claim of paying RM1 bil dividends every year.

If you believe in your analysis and the company prospects, just hold tight for 2 years. Who knows? It may hit RM5.00 one day.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-08-09 21:18 | Report Abuse

dragon328,
You contributed a lot in this forum, I really appreciate your hard work.
I buy YTLPower after I read your report.
Thank you again.

Posted by Muyutin > 2023-08-09 21:55 | Report Abuse

D328 SURE WILL HOLD TIGHT TIGHT
GOOD LUCK TO U
MAY GOD BLESS US

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-08-10 08:01 | Report Abuse

@cgtan2020 Sorry boss, im not the kind of investor who able to go into very specific detail and analysis.

What i do know is, if you read through the research done by investment bank or related agency, they seldom mention about USEP, but most of them do mention about the tightness of demand/supply of electricity in Singapore.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-10 08:57 | Report Abuse

thanks @xiaochecn. Sembcorp CEO did mentioned in the 4-Aug-2023 conference call, he say it is tight.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-10 09:28 | Report Abuse

@cgtan2020, the industry people who are familiar with the electricity sector in Singapore do not bother much about the fluctuations in USEP as they know most of the companies' profit is hedged through retails contracts and vesting contracts with almost 100% hedged gas costs.

Only consumers and independent retailers care about USEP, as they take the risks on the typical norm of USEP being at a discount to the retails contract price.

Why USEP is normally trading at a discount to the retails contract price or vesting contract price? It is because the retails contract price and vesting contract price have incorporated in a non-fuel margin on top of the fuel costs (or we call it short run marginal cost SRMC). When the supply is tight and demand high, this non-fuel margin tends to be high like we are seeing now. Historically this non-fuel margin may hit S$60-80/MWh during tight supply. When there is over-supply of capacity, gencos dump the prices and non-fuel margin may get to as low as S$20-30/MWh like in the period of 2017-2019. During 2014-2016 when there was severe over-supply of capacity coupled with the Take-or-Pay clauses in the gas supply agreements, gencos dumped prices to extreme low in order to keep their machines running and all made losses then.

In the wholesale electricity market (or we call it the electricity pool), gencos typically bid their selling prices at the SRMC of their most efficient units (which are combined-cycle gas plants CCGT) first then the less efficient open-cycled gas units followed by heavy fuel oil steam plants. Under normal situation where the demand supply is quite balanced where the most efficient CCGTs are enough to meet the demand, then USEP will be cleared at the SRMC of CCGT units. This appears to be the situation from July 2023 onwards (after TPC is in place and EMA intervened) when we see USEP trading at S$160-180/MWh which coincides with the SRMC of CCGT units. Only when there is a CCGT unit down or a sudden demand surge then USEP may clear at the SRMC of a less efficient open-cycled gas unit or fuel oil-fired steam unit which is above S$200/MWh. There is the reason why we are seeing USEP being at a discount to retails contract price (which is above S$250/MWh) or vesting contract price, as USEP does not include a non-fuel margin.

Whether or not this situation will encourage more independent retailers to come in to buy power from the pool at USEP and sell to consumers at a margin depends on the risk appetite of the retailers. Some have already gone bankrupt after a period of power price surges in Q1 & Q2 2023. Furthermore, the EMA has tightened regulations to ensure retailers will not go bankrupt so easily by forcing them to hedge at least 80% of their electricity purchases, and not 100% subject to USEP fluctuations.

Will consumers choose these independent retailers to buy cheaper? Consumers will need to assess the risks with these independent retailers and product offerings by them. If these independent retailers are not able to offer fixed price contracts for 12 months or so because their cost of purchase is not fully hedged (as it depends on USEP which fluctuates every 30 minutes), then not many consumers will sign up with them as they have experienced power price surges in Q1 & Q2 when these consumers paid much higher electricity prices than other fixed-price retails contract. This is especially so for corporate and industrial consumers who need to do a budget of their utility bills.

So yes, there will be consumers who will switch to independent retailers and take risks on USEP fluctuations but I think the number is not big.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-10 09:34 | Report Abuse

https://webcast.openbriefing.com/Sembcorp_1H2023/player/?player_id=51514
From the CFO comments, 1:16:00 onwards, if TPC is implemented on H1Y23, to take care of the spike, it will have S$60Million impact on the S$435Million net profit, or 13.7%. Just to be fair to @hng33, USEP will have impact to YTLP net profit in coming quarters, some say 8%, some say 10% of the power sectors, it depend on their spread on contracted customer. Hopefully other sectors can cover the reduction profit in power generations. Overall the CEO did say with TPC in place, efficient power generator like them will still make a decent profit onwards.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-10 09:40 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, thanks for the explanation on the why USEP is lower than what is offer on the retails pricing.

Posted by Muyutin > 2023-08-10 09:59 | Report Abuse

ANYWAY,,
FLUSH 1MORE DAY FOR ME TO ADD ON
TQ

Posted by tonywong8 > 2023-08-10 11:03 | Report Abuse

D328, thank for your comments. I had dumped 8 millions units into the market and balanced 2 millions units plus will keep for dividend next 2 years.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-10 11:15 | Report Abuse

@cgtan2020, in the case of Sembcorp, the CFO said there would have been a 13.7% impact on its net profit in 1H 2023 should TPC have been implemented in 1H 2023. Pls take note that the stated impact is on dollars terms which was S$60 million out of net profit of S$435m in 1H.

The impact in dollar terms could be as high as 13.7% but in electrical power (GWh) terms it could have been much lower. Take an example, say Sembcorp base load generation hedged with retails and vesting contracts for 1H 2023 was 5,000 GWh (vs 6,600GWh for PowerSeraya) and it secured an average non-fuel margin of S$75/MWh in 1H (vs S$80/MWh in Q3 for PSeraya), so the base generation margin would have been:
5,000 GWh x S$75/MWh = S$375 million

Then Sembcorp could have sold long generation (assumed 6%) into the pool at much higher margin of say S$200/MWh, so it could have earned a gross margin of:
300 GWh x S$200/MWh = S$60 million by selling long into the pool taking advantage of power price surges

You can see in terms of long generation volume, it could be just 6% (with remaining 94% hedged with retails and vesting contracts) but the financial impact was 13.7% as power prices were very high in 1H 2023.

Now with TPC in place, power prices have been remaining low close to SRMC of CCGT so gencos are not able to realise any big extraordinary gain from long generation. It will impact at most 5% to 6% of gencos' generation. I am not worried about the loss of such long generation gain, as long as the base load generation continue to get decent margin, just like what Sembcorp CFO said with their efficient fleet of machines.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-10 11:18 | Report Abuse

Having said that, I am still happy to see if PowerSeraya could have made extraordinary gain of S$30 million from long generation into the pool in the upcoming Q4 results.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-10 11:29 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 this will be the best Q for PowerSeraya.

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-08-10 16:34 | Report Abuse

Hi, what is d expected imminent 2nd interim dividends...7 sen? Anybody has a gut feel?

Posted by Kicapmanis > 2023-08-10 18:41 | Report Abuse

Gut feel is 0.055..

Posted by Muyutin > 2023-08-11 00:43 | Report Abuse

变来变去，也改变不了当今年轻人思维，，当今政府一直跟他们讲经济，，但他们好像是根本没有兴趣
马来西亚要转型，，是要设法改变他们的思维，，才有救

Posted by Apple888 > 2023-08-11 09:54 | Report Abuse

Bought some today.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-11 14:58 | Report Abuse

@cgtan2020, pls check the presentation video at 09.08, the slide shows that as of 30 June 2022, Sembcorp spot exposure for its gas plants was 8% and as of 30 June 2023, the spot exposure was 4%.

So my earlier assumption of 6% spot exposure in generation volume seems appropriate.


https://webcast.openbriefing.com/Sembcorp_1H2023/player/?player_id=51514
From the CFO comments, 1:16:00 onwards, if TPC is implemented on H1Y23, to take care of the spike, it will have S$60Million impact on the S$435Million net profit, or 13.7%. Just to be fair to @hng33, USEP will have impact to YTLP net profit in coming quarters, some say 8%, some say 10% of the power sectors, it depend on their spread on contracted customer. Hopefully other sectors can cover the reduction profit in power generations. Overall the CEO did say with TPC in place, efficient power generator like them will still make a decent profit onwards.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-08-11 15:44 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 https://www.sembcorp.com/en/media/807122/sci_1h2023_results-slides.pdf this is the presentation slides. Do go thru it.

Posted by goody99 > 2023-08-12 22:44 | Report Abuse

https://www.enanyang.my/财经新闻/扎夫鲁大马吸引760亿投资-巩固亚洲数据中心枢纽地位

https://www.enanyang.my/财经新闻/【独家】黄伟全球少数具优势国家-大马宜发展数据中心

Posted by goody99 > 2023-08-12 23:41 | Report Abuse

影响大马未来20年国运！独家角度讲解能源转型路线图(NETR)细节！经济部长Rafizi在布一盘怎样的大棋局?【谈股论今 102】
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4e6ix9LurQ

ALL-IN再生能源？大马这次会赌对吗？能源转型路线图NETR如何接轨巴黎气候协议？【谈古论今 103/下 】
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VT88pKygBKE

Posted by OTB > 2023-08-13 00:00 | Report Abuse

Foreign funds are net buyers in KLSE for the last 4 weeks, hence KLSE is bullish now.
I believe huge foreign investment funds (in terms of billion of RM) will pour into Malaysia economy after these 6-state elections are over on 12/8/2023.
Hence I expect KLSE will be a bull market in the second half of 2023.
Please note that the stock market is always ahead of economy.
Thank you.

Posted by speakup > 2023-08-13 12:04 | Report Abuse

State elections 3-3. Tomorrow sure market super bull mali

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-08-13 13:06 | Report Abuse

i think YTLP will not rise much tomorrow. YTL is more political than YTLP.

Posted by bullrun2025 > 2023-08-13 21:35 | Report Abuse

Goreng MRT3

Posted by bullrun2025 > 2023-08-13 21:35 | Report Abuse

Award anytime from now

Posted by Apple888 > 2023-08-14 08:26 | Report Abuse

Continue uptrend till qr result