Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-08 08:52 | Report Abuse

I could have missed this Sembcorp cogen plant. Being a cogen plant, part of the power output will be used to generate high pressure steam and demineralised water, so the net power output will be lower than 600MW, typically around 2/3 of nameplate capacity or around 400MW.

So now we have 2 firm new plants coming online in 2026 and another to be solicited by the EMA (not firm). If we factor in all three, total new capacity would be 600+400+600 = 1,600MW coming online by 2028. This would be just enough to meet the projected peak demand growth of 1,500MW - 3,800MW in next 5 years.

Posted by Sslee > 2023-08-08 09:02 | Report Abuse

A cogen plant mean gas turbine + high pressure boiler + steam turbine and total generation capacity of gas turbine plus steam turbine = 600 MW

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-08 09:45 | Report Abuse

@Sslee, yes the total power output from the gas turbines and steam turbine will be 600MW. What I wanted to point out was that a cogen plant has other outputs like high pressure steam and demineralised water besides electrical power. Part of the power output is used to generate the high pressure steam which is piped away to nearby industrial plant uses. Hence the net electrical power output is typically lower than the nameplate capacity of the gas turbines + steam turbine.

In fact, Sembcorp already has a cogen plant running, the nameplate capacity is 765MW (if I remember correctly), but the net electrical power output available for export to the power grid is about 500MW. Part of the high pressure steam is piped away for export to nearby industrial plant, instead of all going into the steam turbine to generate electrical power.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-08 09:56 | Report Abuse

you see both Keppel and Sembcorp are like Government-linked Corporation (GLC) which may be forced to do some sort of national service, hence both have committed to invest in new power plants to meet the power demand growth in next few years. The big 3 (Senoko, Seraya and Tuas) have been privatised and owned by foreign investors who are less likely to invest big money in the competitive market after suffering losses in 2014-2017 when there was an over-capacity in Singapore. Investors are scared of the EMA doing too much intervention and flooding the market with too much capacity hence crashing the power prices.

Hence I am skeptical of the proposed 600MW capacity being solicited by the EMA. It is a free competitive market. When power players think that there will be power demand, they will make a business decision to invest in new capacity. If they think there will be a lot of new capacity coming in, then they will hold back on any new investment. So I am not sure how the EMA is going to solicit this new 600MW plant to be up by 2028. Will there be any incentive offered by the EMA for this new plant? Any guarantee on capacity uptake or profit guarantee? obviously no.

I just hope that the power players in Singapore will be conservative enough not to be too aggressive in new plantups which will hurt everybody in the game.

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-08-08 10:36 | Report Abuse

haha.. read somewhere some fellas sold on news at 1.39... now 1.50.. lol.. on a serious note,, I think 1.70 is a possibility in near future if presen5 buying interest persists.. anyway I am 120% premium.. sipping ice tea and enjoying the show

Posted by super911 > 2023-08-08 10:45 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/analysts-optimistic-sembcorp-industries-all-keep-buy-raised-target-prices

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-08 11:32 | Report Abuse

This news article mentions that Sembcorp has contracted with Singtel and Micron for long term PPA for 10 year, 80MW and 18 years, 350MW respectively. That partly explain the need for Sembcorp to build a new cogen plant of 600MW. So a big portion of the existing cogen plants has been contracted for long term supply to big clients, leaving not much for the surging peak demand.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/analysts-optimistic-sembcorp-industries-all-keep-buy-raised-target-prices

Posted by rchi > 2023-08-08 16:49 | Report Abuse

Thanks dragon328

Posted by rchi > 2023-08-08 16:50 | Report Abuse

Sgd is so so attractive.

Posted by troy88 > 2023-08-08 16:50 | Report Abuse

Solid!

Posted by probability > 2023-08-08 16:51 | Report Abuse

1.55 , 2M plus shares sapu...interesting

Posted by yewnamhung > 2023-08-08 16:52 | Report Abuse

Well done break RM1.55 Ini kalilah.

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-08-08 16:52 | Report Abuse

nice.. i think 3QR gonna be good

Posted by Tibbers > 2023-08-08 16:55 | Report Abuse

1.70 incoming

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-08 17:07 | Report Abuse

Why the rush to sapu 2.8m shares at 1.55 last minute?

Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2023-08-08 17:11 | Report Abuse

Woot woot woot woot

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-08-08 17:15 | Report Abuse

Good quarter results coming...

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-08-08 17:57 | Report Abuse

Superb quarter result is on the way...18 more days to come...

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-08-08 17:59 | Report Abuse

huat kao lat,
ong lai ong

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-08-08 20:52 | Report Abuse

企业绿色电力计划开跑 国能EPCC业者成赢家
（吉隆坡8日讯）能源委员会（EC）昨日向22家太阳能业者，颁发共563.42兆瓦（MW）的“企业绿色电力计划”（CGPP）项目，除了获颁最大份额的国家能源（TENAGA，5347，主板公用事业股），各家投行也看好再生能源的工程服务（EPCC）商成为大赢家之一。
https://www.enanyang.my/%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F%E6%96%B0%E9%97%BB/%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%BF%E8%89%B2%E7%94%B5%E5%8A%9B%E8%AE%A1%E5%88%92%E5%BC%80%E8%B7%91-%E5%9B%BD%E8%83%BDepcc%E4%B8%9A%E8%80%85%E6%88%90%E8%B5%A2%E5%AE%B6

呵呵，能源委员会没分蛋糕给YTLP，不过YTLP出现在推荐买入的名单内。
懂的都懂。

Posted by Alex Chua > 2023-08-09 12:11 | Report Abuse

Profit taking

Posted by hng33 > 2023-08-09 12:14 | Report Abuse

Caution, depsite upcoming Q result, singapore power will boots up further profit to YTLP due to hike in wholesale electricity price
April - 324 MWh
May - 492 MWH
June - 305 MWH

But, since begin July after Singapore introduce cap price, the wholesale electricity price had tumbling to half to only 167.5 Mwh, and these trend lower wholesale price is still remain in Aug 2023

https://www.ema.gov.sg/cmsmedia/Publications_and_Statistics/Statistics/35RSU.pdf

https://www.nems.emcsg.com/nems-prices

Posted by rchi > 2023-08-09 13:28 | Report Abuse

You should ask why is it that market is not discounting the fall in wholesale prices since this is publicly available info.

Posted by rchi > 2023-08-09 13:29 | Report Abuse

Thanks for your input.

Posted by Muyutin > 2023-08-09 14:07 | Report Abuse

INSIDER NEWS YTL WIN MRT3 ...

Posted by Eric Lim > 2023-08-09 14:15 | Report Abuse

sc will look for you ...............

Posted by juon > 2023-08-09 14:53 | Report Abuse

great shake off....lol. hng33 memang jahat

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-08-09 14:59 | Report Abuse

Caution, depsite upcoming Q result, singapore power will boots up further profit to YTLP due to hike in wholesale electricity price
April - 324 MWh
May - 492 MWH
June - 305 MWH

But, since begin July after Singapore introduce cap price, the wholesale electricity price had tumbling to half to only 167.5 Mwh, and these trend lower wholesale price is still remain in Aug 2023

https://www.ema.gov.sg/cmsmedia/Publications_and_Statistics/Statistics/35RSU.pdf
https://www.nems.emcsg.com/nems-prices
-------------------------------
Dear dragon328,
Please help to comment.
Like to hear your opinion.
Thank you.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-09 15:07 | Report Abuse

I have said a few times, the fluctuation in wholesale electricity prices does not have much impact on PowerSeraya profits as over 90% of its generation is hedged by retails contracts which last from 6 months to 2 years. PowerSeraya said in end May that the company had managed to lock in retails contracts at good margin for 2 years and locked in gas supply at attractive prices.

Posted by juon > 2023-08-09 15:09 | Report Abuse

lol, you all really need such comments? kesian

what is more pitiful,

Posted by juon > 2023-08-09 15:10 | Report Abuse

hng33 so happy laughing behind the scene

Posted by hng33 > 2023-08-09 15:10 | Report Abuse

Although YTLP currently have 70% contract rate range 6month - 2year and balance 30% on spot wholesale rate, But, as current wholesale rate 167Mwh is far below YTLP contract rate about 280-290Mwh, it will prompt many independent retail to offer much lower rate to win over retail market share. Many contract customer will gradually swap to much lower independent retail after theor expire contract.

These situation will continue persist as long as wholesale rate is significantly lower than contract rate, resulted lower profit margin forward. As, singapore intend to import more power from oversea, it will further press down on wholesale energy rate in future. Singapore will never tolerate current power generator to reap such extraordinary profit margin > 25% in future. The more reasonable profit margin for power generator should be about 10%, a acceptable profit margin for highly regulated power industries

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-09 15:10 | Report Abuse

The wholesale electricity prices will naturally soften after the TPC is in place to cap the prices to 2x to 3x Long Run Marginal Costs, which they estimated to be SG$450-700/MWh.

In fact, I am happy to see more steady wholesale electricity prices (without a lot of surges beyond SD$1,000/MWh) so that some smaller retailers can survive and there will not be much complain from consumers. The EMA will also not introduce more drastic measures to intervene in the competitive market.

This leaves gencos to steadily earn decent profits from the retails contracts.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-08-09 15:11 | Report Abuse

Thank you dragon328.
Appreciate your help.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-09 15:14 | Report Abuse

first, PowerSeraya typically hedge over 90% of generation with retails contracts, so the exposure to the wholesale market will never reach 30% as claimed by some quarters.

Secondly, a few small retailers have gone bankrupt and the remaining retailers are mostly have own generation arm. The remaining retailers will not dare to go long on buying all generation from wholesale market and sell to customers. In fact, the EMA has already set regulations to force all retailers to hedge their electricity purchase to 80% minimum. No retailer can buy cheap from wholesale market and sell high to customers in a big way now.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-09 15:17 | Report Abuse

I see today action as a healthy correction to force out weak holders and hence a good buying opportunity for long term investors. It is just like the incident on 20th June 2023 when the news of the EMA introducing the TPC was out and some traders sold the shares of YTL Power down by 15 sen to RM1.15. I managed to scoop up a lot at 1.16-1.18 then. Those who were brave enough on 20th June to buy cheap are now sitting on good profits, despite the healthy correction today

Posted by VincentTang > 2023-08-09 15:19 | Report Abuse

Bought YTLPOWER at 1.47.

Posted by juon > 2023-08-09 15:19 | Report Abuse

tq very much hng33....arigato , lol

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-09 15:20 | Report Abuse

Sembcorp has already announced its results for June 2023 quarter and the result showed that its Singapore power division made good profits. Most of the analysts' reports on Sembcorp following the quarterly result has upgraded the company with higher profit projections and acknowledged that its Singapore power division will continue doing well in next 2 years. You can check and verify this from the various reports available online.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-08-09 15:22 | Report Abuse

The target price of 2.56 remains unchanged in FY2024.
Good luck to those buy cheap today.

Posted by Muyutin > 2023-08-09 15:23 | Report Abuse

IN CONCLUSION,,NO MATTER WHAT SITUATION IS..ONI D328 KOMEN WE CAN TAKE IT AS A REFERENCE..FOR OTHERS LIKE FNG444 HE LIKE SELL BUY BACK SELL BUY BACK

YTLP IS FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENT INSTEAD OF SELL LOW BUY BACK HIGH ABIT

Posted by Muyutin > 2023-08-09 15:30 | Report Abuse

IF WE TRADE TIS YTLP LIKE FNG444, ALTHOUGH NOW YTLP AT RM1.40
THEN BUY IN PRICE RM0.75

AFTER SELL BUY SELL BUY TILL TODAY MAY B PROFIT 35SEN ON INSTEAD 65SEN

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-08-09 15:32 | Report Abuse

For any stock in a multi-month rally, it is normal to have healthy corrections along the way so that the rally becomes sustainable. When it hits a new high, some will take profit and when it has corrections, it allows others to come in.

YTLPower had a similar correction after it hit a new year high of RM1.36 on 31st May 2023, the next day it went down as much as 10 sen.

Thank you hng33 for giving us the chance to buy low again.

Posted by hng33 > 2023-08-09 15:32 | Report Abuse

The factual is 70% power generated is sold as contract 6 month-2 year, and 90% of contract is hedge.
The balance 30% power generated is sold to wholesale market and spot vesting contract.

The problem now is not because of sudden surge is gas price input cost, when already hedge, but is tumbling in wholesale energy and vesting sport energy price compare to contract price.

The actual impact on wholesale energy price will be more apparent in coming Q result, in which is wholesale price is skyrocket in April - 324 MWh, May - 492 MWH, June - 305 MWH, Power seraya is expect to reap billion of profit. But, what about following Q result when wholesale price half at 167 Mwh in July start to kick in and if persist for following month later? Profit margin will significantly decrease back to normalize level will prove in following Q result release in Nov 2023

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-08-09 15:41 | Report Abuse

ytl share price not affected. only YTLP, likely funds like EPF take profit...
Current price has not priced in extraordinary profit. If you look at analyst reports, their TPs are based quite conservative and sustainable power supply income from Spore. There are other catalysts like UK, forex gain, and other ventures

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-08-09 15:42 | Report Abuse

PS高盈利的关键，是在于电力高需求，导致电供量吃紧。
PS高盈利的关键，是在于电力高需求，导致电供量吃紧。
PS高盈利的关键，是在于电力高需求，导致电供量吃紧。

我个人是不放大USEP的因素，因为2021年，10-12月USEP也是非常的高。2021年，PS并没有高获利。

2022下半年，7-12月，和20231-3月的分别也都差不多一样。但是为何2023 1-3月的盈利会暴涨？电供吃紧咯。

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-08-09 15:44 | Report Abuse

电供吃紧，USEP虽不高，不过也可以提高盈利的。

不过，当USEP高，加上电供吃紧，盈利就会非常高。来临的季报，就是这个情况啦。

Posted by probability > 2023-08-09 15:47 | Report Abuse

natural gas price has come down a lot and last quarter earnings was not based on such cheap fuel cost (as they had hedged in advance)...

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

using current fuel cost, even at wholesale price of 167Mwh will be extremely profitable

Powerseraya margin is derived from its competitive advantage against other power gen, as long as there is high demand, it will continue to make significant profits...nothing to do with fuel cost or wholesale energy price which is automatically taken care by competitors

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-08-09 15:48 | Report Abuse

Posted by dragon328 > 12 minutes ago | Report Abuse

For any stock in a multi-month rally, it is normal to have healthy corrections along the way so that the rally becomes sustainable. When it hits a new high, some will take profit and when it has corrections, it allows others to come in.

YTLPower had a similar correction after it hit a new year high of RM1.36 on 31st May 2023, the next day it went down as much as 10 sen.
Thank you hng33 for giving us the chance to buy low again.
-------------
I also want to say thank you to hng33 to help me to buy cheap at 1.46.

The target price of 2.56 remains unchanged in FY2024.
Good luck to those buy cheap today.

Posted by Muyutin > 2023-08-09 15:49 | Report Abuse

AFTER TODAY FLUSHING,I M NOT DARING SIMPLY SELL YTLP AGAIN COZ TP RM3.80 END 2024 INSTEAD EVERY DAY SELL LOW BUY HIGH