HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE !!
Welcome to my 2014 thread, I would like to start the thread with these words;
“ You don’t have to be Great to get started, but you have to get started to be Great “ UNQUOTE.
Hopefully through this thread we can learn,share and exchange ideas to be able to get started and be Great in 2014 !!
I always believe in simplicity in stock market investment whether you are a FA , TA or Both. My aim is always TRY to make Three correct decisions: What to Buy, When to Buy and When to sell. Yet I still make many mistakes days in and days out. Then I realized it was OK to make mistakes at times, the important thing is to make a painful decision when we are wrong.
My resolution for 2014 in stock market? I would like to be able to avoid “Indecisiveness and Regret”.
Many times I have asked myself in 2013 should I buy, sell or hold? Then realized I should have bought,sold or held.
2013 has been a good year for me and I believe for many of you out there.. Then we must also realize KLSE hit the all time high in 2013. I would like to wish everyone to be successful in 2014 too !!
My new format for 2014 is as follows:
1)GHLYSYS-- Av Price=$0.715( Closing=$0.72, P&L=+0.7%), Trailing Stop=$0.665. Risk= -7%. Tp1=$0.79, TP 2=0.845. (Trading Range $0.685 to $0.735).
Note : Formed an engulfing Bull 2 days ago unless $0.685 is broken it should be moving upward in the short term.
2)MUHIBAH-- Av Price=$2.35( Closing=$2.28, P&L=-3%), Trailing Stop=$2.23. Risk= -5%. Tp1=$2.48,
TP 2=?. (Trading Range $2.26 to $2.48).
Note : Rectangle trading range of $2.26 to $2.48.
3)PERISAI-- Av Price=$1.48( Closing=$1.59, P&L= +7.4%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 0 %. Tp1=$1.65/$1.70. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $1.53 to $1.66).
Note : Breakout from $1.57 yesterday it is expected to break above $1.60 soon. I have raised my Trailing Stop to $1.50 which is higher than the purchase price to protect my capitals.
4)PERDANA-- Av Price=$1.59( Closing=$1.59, P&L= 0%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 6%. Tp1=$1.70. TP 2=1.83. (Trading Range $1.54 to $1.66).
Note: The steady upward movement has slowed down some consolidation can be expected and accumulation on any weakness for future play.
5)TAS-- Av Price=$1.12 ( Closing=$1.15, P&L= +2.6%), Trailing Stop=$1.04. Risk= 7%. Tp1=$1.26. TP 2=1.34. (Trading Range $1.10 to $1.20).
Note : Sideways Movement needs to take out the Doji formed at $1.20.Expects to move higher in near term.
6)TDM-- Av Price=$0.96 ( Closing=$0.95, P&L= -1%), Trailing Stop=$0.905. Risk= 5.6%. Tp1=$1.05. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $0.94-$0.97).
Note :Sideways Movement but upward momentum has increased so more rebound can be expected.
Av Price-- price i bought in and it will be adjusted if i scale in.
Closing -- today closing price.
P&L -- Paper Profit and Loss.
Trailing Stop-The cut loss or protect profit levels. It will be adjusted accordingly.
Risk-The stop loss percentage if the trade moved against me.
TP1 &TP2--Target Price.
Using this new format if my stock is trading in the trading range I would not update the stocks every day.
Happy Trading !!
Padini - I entered Padini last week Thursday. I saw the MACD and stochastic are in upward trend. Yup it is expected to break 1.90 soon and test 1.95 resistance line and there is 1.84 strong support.
Rsawit - I entered Rsawit on yesterday. very tempting entry price, stochastic and MACD are very good in place. It just break the 0.88 and test 0.90 to my next TP 0.95. The reason I bought this share is recovering CPO price and the pattern of the price of rsawit is similar to CPO price.
Fitters - Very disappointing price movement. I bought it at high price long time ago and expect to sell it higher to clear of my position.
XDL - Buy based on volume and expect to sell higher on 11/3/2014. Well, it doesn't go what I expected. am still holding it. Luckily there is changes of board directors. Perhaps there will have some momentum for this stock.
Please feel free to give some comment on them, Matrix !!
Hi stay_foolish, thanks for sharing. Would like to ask for Rsawit how did you derive TP 0.95 and why not 0.93 (next resistance). Sorry for asking such question, just started learning TA.
Yup you are right. Next resistance would be 0.93. can derive TP 1 as 0.93 and TP 2 as 0.95. TP is important but don't let TP to restrict you. Let the profits run and cut losses short.
jacky187 A stock only has 3 scenarios, UP, Down or Sideways. Like everyone I bought because I think it is going up, there are many occasions the stock did move up but never hit my TP, and once I know it is moving sideways I will normally clear to protect my capitals. It is no point to hold on a stock that is NOT going anyway or going down.
hepitrade—PADINI is very bullish at the moment, normally on the ex date for dividends the price will adjust itself, but whether it will drop back is anybody's guess. I will clear if the charts say it is going down.
stay_foolish—Thanks for sharing your portfolio, keep the updates for us. Good entry for PADINI and congratulation. It is OK to make mistakes by choosing wrong stocks sometime like your Fitters, important is to learn from our mistakes.
stay_foolish - I have just started trading RSawit too. My analysis on this stock:
The bullish reversal pattern (based on the weekly chart) came on the weeks of 24/1 and 31/1 when a bullish engulfing pattern was formed. Selling pressures were well absorbed and it tested its resistance price of 0.86 during the week of 7/3 with high volume which was subsequently broken the following week. It is on a bullish trend.
The immediate price support is 0.84, if broken, should find strong support at the next level of 0.815/0.805. Immediate resistance is 0.92/0.93. Target price 1 is 0.90 and target price 2 is 0.96. My stop loss is 0.82.
Catalyst: palm oil price is bullish and is expected to break RM3000 per metric ton due the the dry weather conditions. RSawit also had improved financial data based on its latest financial statements.
Vivi, the last weekly summary showed mat still holding them. I'm not sure the latest though. Anyway I've been considering to add at 1.91. Is it the right time? Anyone can advise? Tq
vivi - Engtex momentum is slowing and is headed into a consolidation phase. I have locked in profits on most of my Engtex holdings and may liquidate the remaining if weakness persist.
DESTINI—After hitting high of $0.605 on 11/02 which formed a ‘Dark Cloud” the same day implies some pull back which it did. The big pull back from $0.605 to $0.445 must have shaken out lots of traders, especially it broke below $0.50 and $0.465. It finds a new low of $0.445 on 04/03 with an “Engulfing Bull” implies more rebound, which it did. Today it breaks out from its immediate downtrend line ($0.52) with volume so it is expected to test its immediate resistance at $0.57 and its previous high of $0.605. Unless $0.605 is taken out it is most likely to enter stage 3 of the cycle (Distribution stage and prices can be volatile).--- yoda88 (11/03)
ProfitMan—Good TA analysis on RSAWIT.
Vivi Yap, novice8 —Ya, I am still holding on ENGTEX. More consolidation towards $1.91/$1.88/$1.86 can be expected. I am in the Q at $1.91 since this morning..Not done yet.
stay_foolish—We are all here to learn from each other, I am monitoring POHUAT, OCK and awaits further consolidation especially Pohuat.
hepitrade--I must say TQ to you too. If you have not highlighted PADINI i would not have bought yesterday.
Mat, I've a question- how to know when the consolidation of the particular stock is almost over and getting ready for surging? What should I watch out for? Tq!!
Consolidation—Volume must decline after large upward movement. The trading range is normally narrow during consolidation. The reasons being most investors are sideline waiting for more prospects, after that volume expand a large price move transpire.
Look at GADANG chart, it is under consolidation trading in a narrow range of $1.13 to $1.18 with reduced volume. If $1.13 stays it should move soon.
In chart reading as I always say, Volume is independent from Price and is the MOST important factor, it measures our fears and Greeds. Don’t read into too many indicators it will confuse you. Learn these few important factors and learn well:
I'm interested to know more about Volume topic! Any idea where can I find the relevant information? Tq Mat!!! P/s I got Gadang at 1.15 to average down buying price ;)
Novice8, VOLUME—it actually measures our greed and fears, supply and demands. Beware of rallies with weak volumes—Low volume low conviction. A breakout must accompany with increased volumes. Consolidation must be with reduce volumes. When Volume expands, price either expands higher or lower. When volume contracts, prices contract. I will say volume confirms price action. When volume expands and price does not we refer it to Price/Volume Divergence. The only time you need to be careful what we refer to Buying or Selling Frenzy, some call it climatic volume (Highly extended volume spike), it often indicates the current trend may soon slow or halt. In TA, the ability to read Volume signal accurately will be one of most valuable tool.
P/s novice8, remember to have a exit Plan for Gadang if you are in it.
MITRA—Very Bullish, after trading in the rectangle for almost 2 years plus, it breakout from $0.525 on the daily chart with volume and carry an immediate target of $0.585, TP2=$0.625 and long term target of $0.725.It is very bullish and any consolidation should find support at $0.555 and strong support at $0.525( Resistance turns support). Any weakness offer opportunity to collect for future play. Exit if $0.465 is violated. Thanks for highlighting, I will definitely put this under my watch list.
I think you can start by buying some Technical books in the bookstores. It will help you in deciding the entry and exit price for the stock you are interested in. TA can only use as a guide, to make money you need to have a PLAN when buying into any stock. The first question you must ask yourself is “How much can I afford to lose if the trade is against me?” before buying any stock.
Hi Matrix, been busy with office work lately but keeping tab on tis forum. Just dropping a note of thanks to your wonderful sharing. Learning a lot! Please keep up the good work and may you profit much ya! Cheers!
Just read my weekly summary posted on 10th March 2014..Those are the stocks I am trading now except I added PADINI yesterday. For TA books,since you are new I would recommend Candlestick for Beginner or “getting started For Candlestick charting”.. Not sure what kind of trader are you? Short, Mid and Long term? For GHYSYS I did the reading for 1Bull on 09/03.
GHYSYS—Ya, I used to trade this counter and it has on many occasions fell short of my expectation.Rectangle trading of $0.665 to $0.835, it had in the past failed to close above $0.835 to test its previous high of $0.915 and beyond. The landscape has improved lately and it is expected to try to break above $0.835. A break above with volume it is expected to re test $0.915 and carry an estimated target of $1.00. Failure to do so will repeat its previous pattern with immediate support at $0.72 and strong support at $0.655. Exit if $0.65 is violated (Signal stage 4 of the cycle and to be avoided at all cost)-- (09/03)
As I mentioned in my reading it always fell short of expectation and whoever is behind this counter is a weak pusher.
sunlight—You are always welcome. Do visit us more often.
i3raymond—Maybe “Weak Pusher” was a strong word to use, my apology. Ya, Borneo Oil also fell short after the breakout that I have to agree with you. I was expecting it to hit near $0.745 after the breakout from $0.695. I was wrong too..
stay_foolish: Noted. Thanks for the info. matrixcool: yup, that is true no point holding if not moving nor performing.
Congrats to both of you for Padini ;) I missed the boat this morning was late to office a little. Something I learnt the hard way this time Trailling Stop to protect profit besides should lock in the profit after certain amount.
Thank you guys for sharing awesome information with newbie like me
ORNA—Formed a Hammer today while on an uptrend, a Top reversal? Price & RSI starts to form Bearish Divergence and downward momentum has increased. I may try to clear ORNA to lock in my profits. novice8—from previous post I know you are in ORNA as well, Just to let you know I will be out of ORNA soon because of the Divergence.(Then I could be wrong too). I hope you do have your own Exit Plan on ORNA. Just a word a cautious you may want to clear if $1.17 is violated.
PADINI—Very happy with the performance, almost hit my target of $2.00. The counter is extremely overbought so some consolidation can be expected soon. I may cleared mine to lock in profits first.
I like Barakah the consolidation is healthy and may find a temporary bottom at $1.50. Will start to collect if $1.50 holds. Narrow trading range of $1.50 to $1.58 with reduced volume.
Brendon, to answer your question I think the WA normally move with the mother share. I am not sure about YLI because I do not trade them. But for ENGTEX today shows weakness and more consolidation maybe towards $1.86 can be expected. For the FA of the 2 counters you may need help from FA experts. Anyone that can help brendon here??
spec9888—I am using metastock, not sure about others though.
Posted by matrixcool > Mar 12, 2014 08:09 PM | Report Abuse
ryanc—Welcome to this thread.
sunlight—You are always welcome. Do visit us more often.
i3raymond—Maybe “Weak Pusher” was a strong word to use, my apology. Ya, Borneo Oil also fell short after the breakout that I have to agree with you. I was expecting it to hit near $0.745 after the breakout from $0.695. I was wrong too..
Happy Trading..
ans: Matrix...you're not wrong. No one can predict precisely the social and political events that can happen in the world (which affect the financial markets)eg Russia hed given up Crimea before and now taken it back.
mat, sorry i have another question about today's hammer formed in orna chart :)- i read about if the hammer (white body) was formed in downtrend (further confirmation required the next day), it might signal bullish revival. if the hanging man (black body) formed during uptrend, it could turn bearish. so looking at today's hammer, is it not necessary the hammer in black body to be the hanging man? tq
Jacky187- Formed a Tweezer Tops pattern from 10th to 11th March. The price drop since then. Is a very bearish trend. Don't have much data to do the support and resistance since it just IPO. I am still learning TA from all of you! Let's improve together !
Novice8- Let me try to answer you with my own understanding. The color of the candle is not important for hammer. Yes, further confirmation required the next day whether the hammer is hanging man. I think the concern of Matrix is the declining of volume and formed the hanging man might lead to a downtrend. Correct me if I am wrong, Matrix.
Matrix- I am impressed with the your discipline. I actually thought the Padini's party just started. Will more cautious on the volume.
HAMMER—I am very happy some TA discussion on “Hammer” were carried out last night by novice8 and stay foolish. Beside sharing my trading strategy and hoping that newbies do not make the same mistakes I did before, I was hoping that this thread could also be shared by TA analysis. Ya, both of you are right that ‘hammer” needs confirmation candle and the color is NOT important. That is why I used the phrase “Top Reversal?” with a question mark. Stay foolish, you are right, I am concerned the momentum has turned downward and RSI has formed Divergence. For a Position or short term trader like me, we take notice of this candle and will ACT if necessary. Now we all can all learn together.
I regard very highly to profitMan analysis on TA, Sephiroth on FA. Both of them had helped me tremendously on this thread.
Brendonyeap—I did the chart reading on Brahim on 20/02/14
BRAHIM—Stage 2 of the cycle and very bullish, the counter keep setting new high means no overhangs to clear. The uptrend line is very much intact.The next target is estimated to be $2.70 if breaks the previous high of $2.55. Immediate supports are adjusted to $2.38/$2.34. For short term traders like me we would exit if $2.25 is violated.—(20/02/14) After the reading it did hit my target of $2.70 on 06/03/14. If break and stay above $2.70 it should be heading towards $2.80.
Whether you should ride on it or not is purely your OWN decision, I never advise anyone to buy or sell. They need to make that decision themselves.
ulutrader Thanks for the kind words. Still, Borneo Oil uptrend is still intact.
Vivi Yap, ulutrader is correct. I don’t trade penny stock.
Wintoni---Downtrend counter, but may have found a new bottom at $0.055. Expects to trade from $0.06 to $0.09, a break above $0.09 will take it to its immediate resistance of $0.115 and Traget of $0.145( very strong resistance as this is also mid term downtrend line). If you are bottom fishing remember to set the exit if $0.055 is violated.
jacky187—Don’t worry about the missing one, you will catch a Big one next time..
cherry tomato—You are like me a position or short term trader. Any books on Swing trading, Short term trading will help for beginners.
Happy Trading…
P/s Novice8, just to informed you i sold another 25% of ORNA at $1/25 (Now left with last 25%) to lock in my profits. You know i will always lock in profits when opportunities arise.
Stay foolish, tq for the interpretation. Mind if I call you SF next time? Before this I thought color of the body matter. Does it also apply to hammer shown in downtrend where we don't consider body color. Mat, I saw it went down to 1.22 this morning. I locked in with little profits at 1.25 ;) Tqvm mat!!! Btw is there any note I should take note apart from what SF had explained earlier? Engtex is waking up. Did you do the magic push? ;) hehe
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by matrixcool > 2014-01-01 22:42 | Report Abuse
HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE !! Welcome to my 2014 thread, I would like to start the thread with these words; “ You don’t have to be Great to get started, but you have to get started to be Great “ UNQUOTE. Hopefully through this thread we can learn,share and exchange ideas to be able to get started and be Great in 2014 !! I always believe in simplicity in stock market investment whether you are a FA , TA or Both. My aim is always TRY to make Three correct decisions: What to Buy, When to Buy and When to sell. Yet I still make many mistakes days in and days out. Then I realized it was OK to make mistakes at times, the important thing is to make a painful decision when we are wrong. My resolution for 2014 in stock market? I would like to be able to avoid “Indecisiveness and Regret”. Many times I have asked myself in 2013 should I buy, sell or hold? Then realized I should have bought,sold or held. 2013 has been a good year for me and I believe for many of you out there.. Then we must also realize KLSE hit the all time high in 2013. I would like to wish everyone to be successful in 2014 too !! My new format for 2014 is as follows: 1)GHLYSYS-- Av Price=$0.715( Closing=$0.72, P&L=+0.7%), Trailing Stop=$0.665. Risk= -7%. Tp1=$0.79, TP 2=0.845. (Trading Range $0.685 to $0.735). Note : Formed an engulfing Bull 2 days ago unless $0.685 is broken it should be moving upward in the short term. 2)MUHIBAH-- Av Price=$2.35( Closing=$2.28, P&L=-3%), Trailing Stop=$2.23. Risk= -5%. Tp1=$2.48, TP 2=?. (Trading Range $2.26 to $2.48). Note : Rectangle trading range of $2.26 to $2.48. 3)PERISAI-- Av Price=$1.48( Closing=$1.59, P&L= +7.4%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 0 %. Tp1=$1.65/$1.70. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $1.53 to $1.66). Note : Breakout from $1.57 yesterday it is expected to break above $1.60 soon. I have raised my Trailing Stop to $1.50 which is higher than the purchase price to protect my capitals. 4)PERDANA-- Av Price=$1.59( Closing=$1.59, P&L= 0%), Trailing Stop=$1.50. Risk= 6%. Tp1=$1.70. TP 2=1.83. (Trading Range $1.54 to $1.66). Note: The steady upward movement has slowed down some consolidation can be expected and accumulation on any weakness for future play. 5)TAS-- Av Price=$1.12 ( Closing=$1.15, P&L= +2.6%), Trailing Stop=$1.04. Risk= 7%. Tp1=$1.26. TP 2=1.34. (Trading Range $1.10 to $1.20). Note : Sideways Movement needs to take out the Doji formed at $1.20.Expects to move higher in near term. 6)TDM-- Av Price=$0.96 ( Closing=$0.95, P&L= -1%), Trailing Stop=$0.905. Risk= 5.6%. Tp1=$1.05. TP 2=?. (Trading Range $0.94-$0.97). Note :Sideways Movement but upward momentum has increased so more rebound can be expected. Av Price-- price i bought in and it will be adjusted if i scale in. Closing -- today closing price. P&L -- Paper Profit and Loss. Trailing Stop-The cut loss or protect profit levels. It will be adjusted accordingly. Risk-The stop loss percentage if the trade moved against me. TP1 &TP2--Target Price. Using this new format if my stock is trading in the trading range I would not update the stocks every day. Happy Trading !!