Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-01-10 21:17 | Report Abuse

Harta is now 6.10. good start to the year.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-01-20 10:55 | Report Abuse

bought more skpres at 1.46

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-01-27 14:51 | Report Abuse

bought more pchem at 8.91

Posted by rl68 > 2022-01-31 19:51 | Report Abuse

Philip, there is an error on your portfolio on Jan 31,PetChem Dividend of 10 cents.

30-Jan-2022
Dividend
(Payment) PCHEM +2,743,200 0.10 0.00 +274,320.00 8,352.92 -3,647.08

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-01-31 20:02 | Report Abuse

Noted and thanks

Posted by tonypang01 > 2022-02-11 21:23 | Report Abuse

Uncle Philip, any reason u choose Harta instead of Top glove or kossan or SPM? can you share your wisdom of investing

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-11 21:30 | Report Abuse

To be honest I've owned topglove since 2010, and sold it ten years later haha. But to answer your question, look at the historical net profit quality. You will quickly notice how high the profitability is for harta compared to all their competitors like the ones you mentioned. Why is it so? Nitrile gloves dominance, with applications in medical line, due to their patents in inventing the first nitrile gloves technologies.

Posted by tonypang01 > 2022-02-11 21:34 | Report Abuse

Thanks Uncle Philip, how do you think Harta or Malaysia glove competitiveness vs China glove co especially Intco or bluesail? I believe from your investment on harta mean you still confident will bounce back 1 day

Posted by tonypang01 > 2022-02-11 21:37 | Report Abuse

Uncle Philip, what make you such high % invest into Harta? there must be some unique or strategic positioning with yr wisdom investment journey. Now everyone is fear on glove retailer and IB, but you invest heavily

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-11 23:24 | Report Abuse

Let me ask you back a question, what is intco and bluesail production cost per box of gloves? What is hartalega production cost per box? Once you find that info out( not in annual report or quarterly report), then you will know who can sell at low prices and still make money.
>>>>>>>>


tonypang01 Thanks Uncle Philip, how do you think Harta or Malaysia glove competitiveness vs China glove co especially Intco or bluesail?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-11 23:28 | Report Abuse

I get to buy harta at 2017 prices, only this time they have 60 billion more capacity on the way, paid almost 60 cents in dividends, and they still have 3 billion in cash with almost no debt. Very hard for a company to go bankrupt if they don't borrow money.

In any case, you don't go to the supermarket when prices are high, you buy when got big big discount available.

>>>>>>
tonypang01 Uncle Philip, what make you such high % invest into Harta? there must be some unique or strategic positioning with yr wisdom investment journey.

Posted by tonypang01 > 2022-02-12 09:49 | Report Abuse

Uncle Philip, when you invest stock eg Harta ....how long u plan to hold? also how your strategy to average down if Harta keep on dropping due to sentiment?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-12 09:52 | Report Abuse

Maybe you can answer my question first on intco and bluesail cost of production per box of gloves?

>>>>>>>>

tonypang01 Uncle Philip, when you invest stock eg Harta ....how long u plan to hold? also how your strategy to average down if Harta keep on dropping due to sentiment?
12/02/2022 9:49 AM

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-12 09:55 | Report Abuse

Because that directly relates to when I will sell harta, when their production costs becomes uncompetitive versus China producers.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-12 09:57 | Report Abuse

If China selling price can be same as harta cost price, then I will definitely sell. Right now it is total opposite. If price war happens, I know who will win.

Posted by tonypang01 > 2022-02-12 09:58 | Report Abuse

@Philip, I have no ideas on how much Intco and bluesail r selling, i have some company task to travel to china time to time, generally the manufacturing cost and labour cost is higher in China vs Malaysia

Posted by Sslee > 2022-02-12 10:20 | Report Abuse

When capacity is in muti-billion, I do not think the labour cost of semi auto or fully auto will make much different. The only different is are your products able to get a better price because of your quality and the buyers prepare to pay for such quality.

Posted by tonypang01 > 2022-02-12 16:52 | Report Abuse

My experiences there r still different and volumn also pay key factor n when come to raw material if u have vol also can be deciding factor too. Labour cost and manufacturing cost can be different too beside quality

Posted by stockraider > 2022-02-13 11:35 | Report Abuse

Mike has become a real mouse & a quarter chicken loh!

No longer dare to attack sifu calvin loh!

Congrats to sifu calvin for his fine palmoil stock selection loh!


Posted by Mabel > Feb 13, 2022 12:29 AM | Report Abuse

Hahaha where is DickyMe and Mickey Mouse?

So Yummy....

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by stockraider > 2022-02-13 12:04 | Report Abuse

It is all one way bet on the way up mah!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-02-13 12:11 | Report Abuse

Yes investment in low cost flats is one of the avenue to be rich mah!

Everyone can do it loh!

Not difficult mah!

Posted by uncensored > Feb 13, 2022 11:46 AM | Report Abuse

stockraider (self proclaimed Rich with 15 low cost flat who claimed to help the poor)

Are the below message correct ha ???

As I know, stockraider a.k.a wistlebower99, BILLC and his gang continously spamming ghost story here to dampen the stock price.

They are the stock killers who will earn by pressuring the stock price and do speculative trading.

I think you, stockraider a.k.a wistlebower99 and the gang are in the final stage and keep ready to pickup the shares at lower price.

-----
Other info to look at refering to this CON SPAMMER / SPECULATOR stockraider a.k.a wistlebower99 and and its gang:

1. Mikeycc stockraider aka id :

1. gohku
2. value_seeker
3. BILLC
4. Koey
5. whistlebower99
6. thehoff
7. invest_malaysia

2. scenery Con liar stockraider aka whistlebower99 aka thehoff spamming all penny stocks here n in FB GorengGroupFB. He non stop since early 2021 days n nights, working very hard for syndicates to collect at low n causes all penny stock lost above 5,000% - 10,000%

Posted by uncensored > 2022-02-13 14:20 | Report Abuse

stockraider Liar please teach me HOW to trust a liar ???

Even if you buying low cost flat from secondary market, you action first has deprived the poor family who need a place to stay from owning a unit, & second you indirectly contributed to increase in the price of the low cost flat, & thirdly you encouraged more people to speculate on low cost flat to make a profit.

Do you rent out your low cost flat free of charge ? NO you rented out RM450 per month & so might be even higher. Is this considered helping the poor ?

Also you have mentioned you have sold off 8 units of low cost & make good profit...

SO are you helping the poor...LIAR...LIAR
Caught you again & again LIAR

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-14 01:28 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-14 01:32 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-14 01:38 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-14 01:42 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-14 07:32 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-02-14 07:54 |

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Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-16 17:57 | Report Abuse

Sold sop @4.68. completed trade in history at v26.8%

Posted by Sslee > 2022-02-28 10:34 | Report Abuse

Again proven Philip sold his SOP too early at RM 4.68 like when he sold his TopGlove.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-28 11:09 | Report Abuse

It's more important to be right, than to time the market.

But 25% profits from short holding period, better than buying unmoving Insas.

>>>>>>>>

Sslee Again proven Philip sold his SOP too early at RM 4.68 like when he sold his TopGlove.
28/02/2022 10:34 AM

Posted by Sslee > 2022-02-28 11:21 | Report Abuse

Agree I set my insas sell TP at RM 1.50 hence did not sell when Insas reach RM 1.20. Now I can only watch all my Insas book gain become book loss.
Lesson learned.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-28 11:35 | Report Abuse

Fyi if you look at my transaction list after selling sop, you will have noticed i used it to buy pchem for suburbs 23 centre and more capital gain

Posted by investmalaysia618 > 2022-03-08 15:07 | Report Abuse

QL profit gone, SKP profit gone, Yinson profit gone. Better sell your pchem if you learn your lesson. market is always there

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-03-08 18:44 | Report Abuse

If you can't handle a small dip in your earnings over the short term, you really shouldn't be buying stocks

Posted by investmalaysia618 > 2022-03-08 22:25 | Report Abuse

seems like you dont understand between a drop in share price vs taking profit

Posted by Sslee > 2022-03-09 06:44 | Report Abuse

Buy-and-Hold Has Lost to Every Single Chart Model in 2022 Stock Market
Sell signals from technical tools help navigate bumpy market
A testament to the importance of avoiding big down days
ByLu Wang+Follow
March 8, 2022, 10:06 PM GMT+7

I had to admit my buy and hold on Insas cost me dearly. Should have sold and all in plantation stocks.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-03-09 07:10 | Report Abuse

Seems like you don't understand what dividends are. Maybe you should try it one day.

Or better yet try to keep a long term portfolio and really look at your results when you try to "time" the market.

>>>>>>>

/2022 6:44 PM

investmalaysia618 seems like you dont understand between a drop in share price vs taking profit
08/03/2022 10:25 PM

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-03-09 07:17 | Report Abuse

You will never know how many of my palm oil plantations friends (including myself) doubted how reliable to growth in CPO pricing could be. Most would rather invest in other industries which they don't intend very well, like me and my mistakes with serba instead of investing in a business which they do know well.

At least I did put a bit of money into innoprise and sop for a good trading gain. As usual my maximum exposure is 30% gains for trading. But even I am amazed at the frenzy of buying now

But being in the industry I do know that the pricing is very much due to artificial slow production due to covid and government regulations, and the price is just a temporary imbalance which will soon correct itself.

Don't worry so much about it. I have earned my trading profit which I think it's safe, move on to the longer horizon items.


>>>>>>>>

I had to admit my buy and hold on Insas cost me dearly. Should have sold and all in plantation stocks.
09/03/2022 6:44 AM

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-09 10:05 | Report Abuse

Dear Phillip,
With due respect, based on what you said I don't think you understand the present dynamics of CPO.
Quote "But being in the industry I do know that the pricing is very much due to artificial slow production due to covid and government regulations, and the price is just a temporary imbalance which will soon correct itself." unquote.
It has been the same things many analysts repeatedly said over the past 2 years ever since CPO reached $3,000 end of 2019. These analysts are prone to rely on past years trends to predict the future without giving a damn to the new developments and circumstances at play.
Let me, as someone who has been in senior career position in this industry for 30+ years, share my view about the prospect of CPO.
1. Malaysia - There has been almost zero CPO production growth in Malaysia since 2011. Total production in 2011 was 18.9 mil mt and it was 18.3 mil mt in 2021(11 years later) . The average production for 2011 -2021 was about 19 mil mt. Planted area has been trending down from 5.9 mil ha in 2019 to 5.7 mil ha in 2021 due to some area given up for development purposes. Cultivation area has already reached its peak limited by RSOP pledges, ESG and climate change commitments. Consequently, the production growth in the foreseeable future can only come from higher yield/ha from existing cultivation areas, NOT from opening new land. Will yield/ha goes up significantly to change the present supply-demand dynamic? The answer is clear NO!

2. Indonesia - CPO production jumped by leap and bound from about 25 mil mt in 2011 to 47mil mt in 2021 with higher growth concentrated in 2013 -2019 period , reaching 47.12 mil mt peak in 2019. Very important to note that production for 2020 and 2021 were flat at 47 mil mt for 2 years consecutively. GAPKI (Indonesian palm oil association) predicts that production for 2022 is again flat and export is expected to go down 3-5 mil mt due to policy to adequately supply domestic demand at lower price.

3. The world has been enjoying cheap edible oil largely from to huge production/supply increase (almost 10% annual growth) from Indonesia from 2011 to 2019 . That explain the subdue price for CPO for most years during this period. The supply picture from Indonesia has completely changed after 2019 as shown above and this has driven CPO price substantially higher in 2020,2021 2022 and beyond.

3. Indoensia - The relentless pressure from NGO to stop oil palm expansion and therefore 3 years new planting moratorium in indonesia from 2019 to 2021 will keep production growth in Indonesia very low. Upon the expiry of the moratorium, Indonesia pledges to continue stopping deforestation for oil palm as their commitment to global Climate Change/ decarbonisation goal.

4. Developments hampering more CPO supply : (a) Severe labour shortage in Malaysia causing lost of crops, poor field maintainence , delay fertilizer application, serious delay in replanting program. (2) Insufficient and imbalance fertilizer application in 2018/2019 ,especially among smallholders and failure of fertilizer companies to perform timely delivery/supply of fertilizer in 2020/2021 due to covid lockdown and global supply hiccups will resulted most plantation only able to apply 60-70 % of the yearly fertilizer rate. These will certainly affect yield in 2022/2023 negatively. Timely supply of various fertilizers despite exorbitant cost continue to be a big challenge with the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine war.

5. Wild weather arising from global climate change will continue to cause production loss of competing oil like soyoil, canola and sunflower oil. The situation is aggravated by the Russian-Ukraine war that shall cause substantial supply loss of sunflower oil in addition to short suppy of wheat out of black sea. Which other edible oil is capable to fill this sunflower oil loss ?

5. Extremely high wheat price and shortage of fertilizer will see more soya and corn farmers shifting to planting wheat as it give better return. Wheat require much lower fertilizer inputs than soya and corn. Fertilizer shortage hit the seasonally short term oil crop like soya, canola and sunflower much more severely than oil palm. Shortage of glyhosate , a weedicide , globally will also cause the GMO soya and corn farmers to plant less or suffer crop loss.

6. Global demand growth in edible oil market is averaging 5% per year due to rising population, olechemical, food and biofuel demand. Once life normalise post covid, demand growth will surge ahead. The fear for a wide Russian-Ukraine war will see many countries trying to secure enough food as food security is top priority of the government. Where are the 5% or more supply going to come from ?

Above are some information and my thought for sharing

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-09 10:13 | Report Abuse

Prior to 2019, we have very high production growth from indonesia to fill any supply shortfall , but the world have no more such luxury! Indonesia is going to secure their own food and energy security. Indonesia continue to pursue B30, B40 biofuel mandate .

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-03-09 11:57 | Report Abuse

I believe that indonesia is going to have high supply, and they will export their produce out sooner rather than later, just as they have done for the last decades before jokowi.

>>>>>>>

Johnzhang Prior to 2019, we have very high production growth from indonesia to fill any supply shortfall , but the world have no more such luxury! Indonesia is going to secure their own food and energy security. Indonesia continue to pursue B30, B40 biofuel mandate .
09/03/2022 10:13 AM

Posted by Sslee > 2022-03-09 12:55 | Report Abuse

GAPKI Sees Modest Rise in Indonesian Palm Oil Production in 2022
2 February 2022 Bhimanto Suwastoyo
The Indonesian Association of Palm Oil Producers (GAPKI) is forecasting the country?s palm oil production to rise a modest 4.87 percent in 2022 to reach 49 million tons of crude palm oil (CPO) and 4.8 million tons of Palm Kernel Oil (PKO.)

This modest growth, according to a GAPKI press release, was attributed to constraints in fertilizing in 2021 following shortages and high fertilizer prices as well as the extremely wet weather conditions early this year.

GAPKI estimated consumption of palm oil for the food sector in 2022 to maintain about the same level as in 2021, that is at around 800,000 tons per month, or 9.6 million tons for the entire year of 2022. Oleochemicals are expected to consume about the same volume as in the second half of 2021, that is at around 180,000 tons per month, bringing the total estimate for 2022 to 2.16 million tons.

The palm oil consumption of Indonesia?s biodiesel industry will depend on the government?s mandatory biodiesel program with for 2022 is estimated to absorb 8.83 million tons.

In total, domestic consumption of palm oil in 2022 is estimated then to reach around 20.59 million tons. With production at 53.8 million tons and consumption at 20.59 million tons, there will be about 33.21 tons left for export or three percent less than in 2021.

National production of CPO in 2021 reached 46.888 million tons or 0.31 percent down from 2020 mainly because of the limited fertilizing in 2019 and 2020 as well as weather factors.

Domestic palm oil consumption in 2021 reached 18.422 million tons or six percent more than in the previous years. Consumption of palm oil for food rose by six percent, for oleochemicals 25 percent and for biodiesel two percent.

The government?s consistency in applying the mandatory biodiesel program has contributed in reducing supplies and thus affect the world vegetable oil export market. Indonesian palm oil product exports in 2021 ? CPO, CPO derivative products, PKO, oleochemicals and biodiesel reached 34.2 million tons or a mere 0.6 percent growth oer exports in 2020. The low growth level was caused by limited supplies, high prices and the narrowing price difference between palm oil and other vegetable oils, especially soy bean oil.

Exports of palm oil in 2021 only grew by 0.6 percent in volume from 2020, reaching $35 billion but in terms of value this was 52 percent up from the previous year. The substantial increase in revenues from palm oil exports was mainly supported by the high average price of palm oil in 2021 that stood at $1,194 per ton or 67 percent higher than the average price in 2020.

Posted by Aseng > 2022-03-09 13:59 | Report Abuse

Good homework done .
thank you
now the operating cost of a plantation is high
and maintain to be high at whatever price in the future
what i believe is that
if the oil palm were to go down to normal , that say a 30% ,
then you people who are still holding plantation stock
will experience the same glove slide a year or two ago

Posted by ooihk899 > 2022-03-09 14:44 | Report Abuse

Glove n Palm r different. You can build a glove factory in 6 months. Do you think you can increase palm oil production in 6 months? The main problem is world vege oil production can not meet demand due to climate change. Further aggravated by the Ukraine/Russia war. It may take more than 2 years for everything to be back in normal.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-09 16:45 | Report Abuse

Phillip,
Indonesia has further raised the quota that local producers must sell domestically from 20% to 30%. This will further tighten the availability for international buyers. As a result, CPO price surge tremendously today. The market is clearly telling us supply is short . Don't go against the market.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-09 16:53 | Report Abuse

CPO spot month is $7,500. Should CPO price goes done by 30%, the price will be $5,250.
Cost of production after factoring higher input costs this year will still be around $1,700 -$1,900. Plantation will still be laughing to the banks.
For FY 2021, those plantations acheiving average CPO selling price of $4,400 reported record level of profit. All the numbers are in public domain if you spend some time to look for them.

Posted by Aseng > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

Good homework done .
thank you
now the operating cost of a plantation is high
and maintain to be high at whatever price in the future
what i believe is that
if the oil palm were to go down to normal , that say a 30% ,
then you people who are still holding plantation stock
will experience the same glove slide a year or two ago

Posted by Windy1974 > 2022-03-09 19:50 | Report Abuse

John. Great to hear from an industry insider. Didn't know that Malaysia's production didn't increase over 2011 - 2020. Valuable information.
I did some brief analysis 8-9 years ago when i was considering a few hundred acres plantation. I recalled the cost was already 1700 to 1800 then? Could you break down the cost?
As what i know, many Sabah small plantation owners gotta sell to big plantations due to labour shortage. Sarawak facing similar issues but better. But labour and fertiliser costs will up substantially? Hopefully this will help me with better investment decisions in plantation stocks in the future

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-09 20:44 | Report Abuse

Hi Windy, the cost of production for smallholders are usually higher due to lack of economy of scale and lack of professional advice on nutrients input and choice.

The cost of production for the public listed plantations are usually declared in the annual report in the CEO/Management report section.
I will separate post additional information which I share in other forum .