Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-09 20:48 | Report Abuse

Hi Windy , for your info

The cost of production is in the range of $1,400 to$1,700/mt of CPO in general. Plantation which can produce upto 4 to 4.5 mt of CPO per ha will have production cost at the low end of the range mentioned in the above. The less efficient plantation who achieved lower yield per ha will be at the higher end of the range. The variation in cost of production largely influenced by the productivity achieved ( ie yield per ha). The various components cost are relatively small and stable between plantations as they pay about the same labour cost and input costs like fertilizer and weedicide.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-09 20:49 | Report Abuse

For example,
1. HSplant?s cost of production in 2019 was $1,482 pmt CPO . Whereas, it jump to $1,682 due to considerable drop in yield per ha in 2020.
2. Bplant who we all know is not the most efficient plantation ( yield of 3.2 mt CPO/ha) has its cost of production at $1,649 in 2020 as compared to kLK?s $1,300+.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-09 20:50 | Report Abuse

One of the main components in cost of production is fertilizer. Fertilizer price has gone up substantially in 2021 and small rate of increase in 2022. Labour and other management cost which has lower weightage has always been relatively stable with 3-5% increase per year.
Base on prevailing prices of fertilizer, I estimated that the cost of production for FY 2022 will be $250 - $300 pmt CPO higher than 2020.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-09 20:51 | Report Abuse

Therefore you may take that the cost of production for FY2022 is $1,650 to $1,950 pmt CPO

Posted by investmalaysia618 > 2022-03-09 21:42 | Report Abuse

good company doesnt mean its a good stock

Posted by Sslee > 2022-03-10 08:35 | Report Abuse

Windy1974,
For small cap you can look into MHC and Cepat.
For mid cap HSplant and Bplant.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-03-10 13:14 | Report Abuse

Good sharing John. For me my biggest exposure to palm oil is via fertilizer costs which everyone need to buy from pchem due to rising costs and delivery delays from foreign suppliers. Some may prefer to buy plantations and dig for palm oil gold, I prefer to be steady and sell you shovels to plant palm oil.

Pchem is my safe and steadily growing stock. My largest concentration and in my opinion the safest stock moving forward with very good growth prospects.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-10 19:25 | Report Abuse

Hi Philip, very true that Pchem will benefit from its 2 mil mt urea capacity. Pchem bigger business is in other oil derivatives such as polymer, ammonia etc, So ,watch out for the performance of this segment too.
May be you can look into pure fertilizer producers listed oversea such as Nutrien and Mosaic in NYSE and K+S in Dax. Nutrien and mosaic are huge fertilizer producers in N, P and K fertilizers . Whereas K+S specialize in K and Mg fertilizers. All are big global reputable players . Though their share price has run up since Ukraine war, they are still trading at low PE and expect to reap huge profit this year . Just to share

Posted by vinext > 2022-03-12 02:59 | Report Abuse

philip,
i just knew abt this page, fyi, 2000 gloves companies r registered with govt,so be careful with ur optimisim

Posted by Sslee > 2022-03-12 18:11 | Report Abuse

Sorry Harta (17 billion) vs kossan (4 billion) bet is off. I already sold kossan for a small profit to buy plantation stocks.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-03-13 07:39 | Report Abuse

You buy plantation stocks at all time high prices? While I buy glove stocks at low prices. We shall see how it all turns out in the long run.

Posted by Investor 999 > 2022-03-13 13:12 | Report Abuse

So many cannons!

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-03-14 11:44 | Report Abuse

Gloves are up, plantation stocks are down.. How now brown cow?


>>>>>>>

03/2022 2:59 AM

Sslee Sorry Harta (17 billion) vs kossan (4 billion) bet is off. I already sold kossan for a small profit to buy plantation stocks.
12/03/2022 6:11 PM

Posted by vision912 > 2022-03-14 13:15 | Report Abuse

Hi Philip I always enjoy your analysis and insights. Don't waste your time debating with clowns and people who think the world of themselves.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-03-14 14:33 | Report Abuse

For me I would rather with someone who keep reminding me of my failure over who think the world for/of themselves.

Good for Philip, Harta finally move up a bit:
Market Cap: 15,733 Million
NOSH: 3,428 Million
Avg Volume (4 weeks):6,337,420
4 Weeks Range: 4.15 - 5.08
52 Weeks Range: 4.15 - 11.34
Last quarter EPS 7.58cents still better than precovid of 3 cents+

Posted by investmalaysia618 > 2022-03-15 11:24 | Report Abuse

会买是徒弟，会卖是师傅

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-04-10 08:40 | Report Abuse

sold 100k shares of pchem at 10.18 last week, cash out.

>>>>>>
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp#tabs_group1

Posted by Rwkl > 2022-04-10 10:50 | Report Abuse

Well if Pchem touches RM12 in the near future expect brickbats hurling your way from slee and gang as you will be chided for not waiting a bit longer. However if it slumps, you will be chastised for not clearing your entire position.
It’s heads they win and tails you lose

Posted by Sslee > 2022-04-10 11:48 | Report Abuse

Well Philip is very gentleman in leaving something on the table so whoever pick up his share at high price will able to sell higher.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-04-10 12:30 | Report Abuse

But if you trade too much, you will miss my buying at 4.09@ march 2020 and holding on forever collecting 50 cents dividend every year. That is why trading is only for small amounts. After a certain size you really need to find good stocks that you can park money into for a long period of time making huge long term gains and dividends. That is how one really makes money, picking good stocks for the long term and holding on.

Posted by rl68 > 2022-04-11 21:11 | Report Abuse

Philip,may I know why you want to cash out on PChem?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-04-11 22:24 | Report Abuse

As I am retired, it is only a way for me to get cash for expenses.

Posted by investmalaysia618 > 2022-06-15 15:39 | Report Abuse

pchem earnings gone. that's the problem with buy and die die hold

Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-06-15 16:28 | Report Abuse

Now you not only watch your paint dry, but watch your wallet dry too hahahaha!!!

Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-06-15 16:30 | Report Abuse

It seems your stock picks also so-so only hahaha

Posted by Investmalaysiaa > 2022-06-16 09:27 | Report Abuse

Yeah. He never learn from his QL experience

Posted by Investmalaysiaa > 2022-06-16 09:28 | Report Abuse

Stagnant at RM6.5 & RM6 also don’t want sell. Now back to cost price

Posted by Sslee > 2022-06-16 10:18 | Report Abuse

I think Philip's best pick is Pchem, his worst is Harta and his love for QL is so strong that till death do us part

Posted by investmalaysia618 > 2022-06-16 14:12 | Report Abuse

never fall in love with a stock. i sold 80% of my genting during the spike 1 or 2 weeks back which i hold for around 2 years. keep cash and slowly build back the position

Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-06-16 15:33 | Report Abuse

QL is just so overvalued no matter how attractive the story is. A conglomerate with stagnated earnings selling for 50 times earnings just doesn’t cut it. He just got lucky for buying pchem when it was near bottom.

Posted by Investmalaysiaa > 2022-06-16 17:38 | Report Abuse

Yeah. He’s just lucky that pchem rebounded back to its previous high. That’s it. QL is expensive. Cannot justify in high interest environment plus their dividend is super low. Gonna crash soon. Look at dialog.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-06-17 08:15 | Report Abuse

If we are all going to be completely honest, how is YOUR portfolio doing? Hahaha by avoiding klse tech stock, it seems I have outrun the crash. And by selling my palm oil stocks early, it seems those who jumped in are buying at ath stock prices eh sslee?.

Investors like maxpowar don't realize that my position in QL was started on 2009 and it is still giving me huge dividends and stable positioning 13 years later compared to your "tech" stocks.

And investmalaysia selling 80% of your genting during the "spike", how is that crystal ball working for you? Care to share your portfolio?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-06-17 08:20 | Report Abuse

The thing about QL is you kids only know how to look at share price. Forever looking at share price. Very sad if that is all you know. Understand the business. Look at how family mart is fully growing without using parent cash anymore. It is a standalone arm under QL that is growing arm blazing.

And for chicken and eggs business look at how every other competitor is losing money and quitting the industry. When government realizes how this is bad, and let's up on fertilizer and chicken prices to make things work, QL will still become the most efficient producer and make tons of money when everyone has left the market.

That is when you will realize why I am still holding on to an agrigiant like QL as well as the other 11 billion market cap shareholders.

The reason why the rich get richer and the poor stay poor is simply the fact that the rich can afford to wait and buy the best, while the poor keep buying and selling short term

Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-06-17 09:39 | Report Abuse

You can justify all you want about your holding positions, but the public knows you have the tendency to defend an overvalued company just because you have vested interest, and make subjective claims that the companies you hold are the BEST in Bursa.

Also, please do not assume everyone holds tech stock in their portfolio. You do not know investors here have how many holdings that they held onto since the 90's.

If you have the audacity to show your portfolio publicly then be ready to accept critism, because not everyone has to agree with you.

So much so proudly claiming to have courage to display your portfolio, who knows who's the guy behind the grid? Any tom dick harry can create an account and claim to have any amount of portfolio.

Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-06-17 09:40 | Report Abuse

To add on regarding positions investors have held onto since 90's, of course..of course...we sold it at a handsome profit and not bagholding like you hahaha...

Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-06-17 09:43 | Report Abuse

I'll not touch QL with a ten foot pole given its current valuation..

will consider QL when it's selling at 4b market cap, even then i'll buy solely because of familymart

Posted by investmalaysia618 > 2022-06-17 10:50 | Report Abuse

doesn't matter you hold for 10,20,30 years. earn is earn & loss is loss. We need to play with market sentiment not just die die hold. your pchem gain already wiped out by harta & yinson loss. bad move to buy glove when the sentiment is bad and bad move to sell topglove when it's exploding. sentiment is everything in the market. market can be irrational longer than you expected. why fight with the market?

Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-06-17 10:55 | Report Abuse

Fully agreed with @investmalaysia618

Posted by Sslee > 2022-06-17 12:15 | Report Abuse

I think if only Philip had listen to his wife and invest in Oriental instead of holding on to QL or buying Harta, he will earn more in dividend and capital gain.

Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-06-17 14:34 | Report Abuse

Philip needs to learn that a good company does not equal to a sound investment.

It's all about what you pay for it.

You can invest in the "best" business in the world and still lose money. That is why Philip lost his pants over transmile, and now is losing his pants over his SerbadK, Harta and Yinson position. You can't teach an old dog new tricks.

Mark my words, in this raising interest environment with pending OPR hike, QL share price has more room to drop.

Drop more buy more..buy until his underwear also drop hahaha

Posted by StingRay > 2022-06-17 14:36 | Report Abuse

It is called value trap where one would not be able to realise the value when in need.

Posted by investmalaysia618 > 2022-06-17 14:42 | Report Abuse

Skpres limit up due to ataims issue last year also dont want to sell. pchem gap up reach 11 also dont want to sell. seems like he dont know how the market works. knowing a business doesnt mean you're a good investor. we need to know business + market

Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-06-19 09:48 | Report Abuse

When share price up he starts boasting about share price up, when share price down he will say don’t look at share price but look at business. What a hypocrite you are philip!

Posted by enigmatic [hodl your shares] > 2022-06-19 11:32 | Report Abuse

Investmalaysiaa and Maxpowar represent the worst kind of forumers on i3investor.com.

They start insulting you when you are down and throw you with barrage of criticisms while contributing nothing.

Their comments are nothing but unjustified direct attacks on a person.


Philip ( buy what you understand) has mentioned that his intention is not to show off, but to provide the public a guide to how investing can be done. There'll be times where he'll be right, there'll be times where he'll be wrong.

Posted by Just88 > 2022-06-19 11:44 | Report Abuse

Some are here in i3 to learn and gain. Some are here to mislead and cheat. Some are here to hate and irritate. Whether Philip is here to share, teach or boast is his free will. Whether his ideology is agreeable is debatable but certainly not deceiving. Most importantly, he supported his investments with reasons and that is what matters as this helps his readers to make their own decisions. What Philip is doing should be encouraged.

Posted by Just88 > 2022-06-19 11:55 | Report Abuse

Compare Philip to those "sifus" who would tell their followers "just buy, don't ask" and you will see the difference.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-06-19 12:51 | Report Abuse

Posted by Just88 > Jun 19, 2022 11:44 AM | Report Abuse 

Some are here in i3 to learn and gain. Some are here to mislead and cheat. Some are here to hate and irritate. Whether Philip is here to share, teach or boast is his free will. Whether his ideology is agreeable is debatable but certainly not deceiving. Most importantly, he supported his investments with reasons and that is what matters as this helps his readers to make their own decisions. What Philip is doing should be encouraged

Ans: Have you read Philip's blog on Serbadk and Harta.
What do you think about Philip's blog on Serbadk and Harta, supported with reasons or speculation?

I always welcome different of opinions as its make us think.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-06-19 13:02 | Report Abuse

As of palm oil: Why should CPO sell at a huge discount to soybean oil?

Palm oil's discount to soybean oil reached a six-week high of $282.21/mt June 14 as benchmark palm prices softened after Indonesia lifted an export ban and stepped up palm shipments

Posted by Just88 > 2022-06-19 20:07 | Report Abuse

At least Philip put up his rationale for his purchase, whether reason or speculation is up to the readers to decide. Yes, different of opinion is good but not personal attack. There is always a nice way to debate.

**************
Ans: Have you read Philip's blog on Serbadk and Harta.
What do you think about Philip's blog on Serbadk and Harta, supported with reasons or speculation?

I always welcome different of opinions as its make us think.

Posted by Maxpowar > 2022-06-20 08:52 | Report Abuse

I suspect philip is using fake account to self defend his poor investment decision. Anyway, the public should take what’s on this forum with a pinch of salt. It may very well just be a facade.