Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-14 20:47 | Report Abuse

Haha i3lurker,
The profit is base on 6500hour. Actual operation hour are much higher.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 20:51 | Report Abuse

Sslee > May 14, 2020 8:47 PM | Report Abuse

Haha i3lurker,
The profit is base on 6500hour. Actual operation hour are much higher.

===========


the only basis to work on are the PBB figures given by management to them...........every thing else is based on imaginations....


u not unlike OTB's hours X power X margin = profits ..........this is pure imagination , and over simplified.

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-14 21:04 | Report Abuse

sslee

you are on your own
lets chit chat on nite club girls or durian spots or best sashimi

no more IRR talks on Jaks
I wun talk about Jaks IRR any more

You already announced it to the Whole Wide World via your article.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 21:05 | Report Abuse

dk ...........stop pretending............u lose money, your business.....don't drag every one down with u..........

Posted by Shan Kee Tiow > 2020-05-14 21:10 | Report Abuse

DK66
不要吐血，快乐一天也算赚到！我告诉你，其实很多人自以为是，但是他们都不知道自己像个傻瓜一样在炫耀什么。因为他们不清楚jaks用的12%就是IRR rate，而PBB为什么用rate为12%是因为这12%就是IRR rate，也就是内部回酬旅。当这IRR rate用在discounted cash flow method（DCF），这12%就是贴现率。什么是贴现率？贴现率就是用利率的方式把未来钱计算成现在的价值。

Internal rate of return (IRR) is the interest rate at which the net present value of all the cash flows (both positive and negative) from a project or investment equal zero.

Internal rate of return is used to evaluate the attractiveness of a project or investment. If the IRR of a new project exceeds a company’s required rate of return, that project is desirable. If IRR falls below the required rate of return, the project should be rejected.

所以需要谢谢他们提到的NPV。CF/（1+r)^n就是正在贴现方程式，但是有人搞不明白我们在算什么。JAKS的总投资是8.04b，以12%的IRR rate来计算。为什么Ehome009要找的是free cash flow（FCF）？原因很简单，8.04b就是NPV，12%的IRR rate就是计算25年里每年进账多少FCF经过以12%的贴现率后才能与8.04b相等。

找到的答案是每年进账1020m，再以12%的discounted rate（贴现率）计算，你就会找回8.04b的NPV，只有每年进账1020m才能证明投资hai duong IPP是值得的，因为保值。PBB给的TP是什么？现在NPV？现在投入8b，结果说NPV是1b，我不知道贷出6b的三家银行有什么感想。target price是对未来股票会涨到什么价位而给出的一个预期价，说target price是npv（现金价值），倒不如叫那位分析员不要写报告好吗？因为所有股价都是NPV。target price就是要预期未来，发电厂正要完成，就已经宣布要破产剩10亿。说多了都是累！我这篇文章不是写给喷子看的，而是写给有兴趣了解jaks然后实事求是的人看的。谢谢

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 21:17 | Report Abuse

Shan Kee Tiow, 我真的希望每个人都有您这样的了解。如此我便不必一直为JAKS辩护。
---------------------------
Shan Kee Tiow DK66
不要吐血，快乐一天也算赚到！我告诉你，其实很多人自以为是，但是他们都不知道自己像个傻瓜一样在炫耀什么。因为他们不清楚jaks用的12%就是IRR rate，而PBB为什么用rate为12%是因为这12%就是IRR rate，也就是内部回酬旅。当这IRR rate用在discounted cash flow method（DCF），这12%就是贴现率。什么是贴现率？贴现率就是用利率的方式把未来钱计算成现在的价值。

Internal rate of return (IRR) is the interest rate at which the net present value of all the cash flows (both positive and negative) from a project or investment equal zero.

Internal rate of return is used to evaluate the attractiveness of a project or investment. If the IRR of a new project exceeds a company’s required rate of return, that project is desirable. If IRR falls below the required rate of return, the project should be rejected.

所以需要谢谢他们提到的NPV。CF/（1+r)^n就是正在贴现方程式，但是有人搞不明白我们在算什么。JAKS的总投资是8.04b，以12%的IRR rate来计算。为什么Ehome009要找的是free cash flow（FCF）？原因很简单，8.04b就是NPV，12%的IRR rate就是计算25年里每年进账多少FCF经过以12%的贴现率后才能与8.04b相等。

找到的答案是每年进账1020m，再以12%的discounted rate（贴现率）计算，你就会找回8.04b的NPV，只有每年进账1020m才能证明投资hai duong IPP是值得的，因为保值。PBB给的TP是什么？现在NPV？现在投入8b，结果说NPV是1b，我不知道贷出6b的三家银行有什么感想。target price是对未来股票会涨到什么价位而给出的一个预期价，说target price是npv（现金价值），倒不如叫那位分析员不要写报告好吗？因为所有股价都是NPV。target price就是要预期未来，发电厂正要完成，就已经宣布要破产剩10亿。说多了都是累！我这篇文章不是写给喷子看的，而是写给有兴趣了解jaks然后实事求是的人看的。谢谢

Posted by Ehome009 > 2020-05-14 21:18 | Report Abuse

Shan Kee Tiow

你的解释非常精准到位又合理。给你10个like

Posted by Shan Kee Tiow > 2020-05-14 21:23 | Report Abuse

谢谢！我觉得不了解最好的方式就是问，不想问就去查，现今已经是网络时代，大概什么东西都能Google search到。

Posted by paktua73 > 2020-05-14 21:38 | Report Abuse

paktua tumpang lalu..
just share dumb view..

paktua want ask some..
too all jaks believer..
how strong you're..
if you real JAKS fighters..
how do you deal with all naysayers view..
counterattack??
is good??
or..
will uncover you weakness ..
to your opponent easily??

paktua advice..
let be cool..
when we face hard situation..pressure,..tension..
all this paktua call..
influence by emotions..
to deal with it..
the best act is..
control our emotion..

always take easy step..
except them..but not influence by them.
its not gonna die maa..
their just want play our emotions..
we weak we die on field..
lost all confidence..
so..
be free..enjoy..
now its time to handle our emotions..
play with them..set our standard..
relax enjoyed.
now its time to beat our own fear..

https://youtu.be/yVtyPj4JEFo

let we deal with our fear first...
thats is real your weakness..
not this naysayers view..


tut tut
naysayers view is greatest meal..
let them serve..

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 21:40 | Report Abuse

I have included the following brilliant explanation by Shan Kee Tiow into my article.

Thank you Shan Kee Tiow. You helped a lot

Shan Kee Tiow
不要吐血，快乐一天也算赚到！我告诉你，其实很多人自以为是，但是他们都不知道自己像个傻瓜一样在炫耀什么。因为他们不清楚jaks用的12%就是IRR rate，而PBB为什么用rate为12%是因为这12%就是IRR rate，也就是内部回酬旅。当这IRR rate用在discounted cash flow method（DCF），这12%就是贴现率。什么是贴现率？贴现率就是用利率的方式把未来钱计算成现在的价值。

Internal rate of return (IRR) is the interest rate at which the net present value of all the cash flows (both positive and negative) from a project or investment equal zero.

Internal rate of return is used to evaluate the attractiveness of a project or investment. If the IRR of a new project exceeds a company’s required rate of return, that project is desirable. If IRR falls below the required rate of return, the project should be rejected.

所以需要谢谢他们提到的NPV。CF/（1+r)^n就是正在贴现方程式，但是有人搞不明白我们在算什么。JAKS的总投资是8.04b，以12%的IRR rate来计算。为什么Ehome009要找的是free cash flow（FCF）？原因很简单，8.04b就是NPV，12%的IRR rate就是计算25年里每年进账多少FCF经过以12%的贴现率后才能与8.04b相等。

找到的答案是每年进账1020m，再以12%的discounted rate（贴现率）计算，你就会找回8.04b的NPV，只有每年进账1020m才能证明投资hai duong IPP是值得的，因为保值。PBB给的TP是什么？现在NPV？现在投入8b，结果说NPV是1b，我不知道贷出6b的三家银行有什么感想。target price是对未来股票会涨到什么价位而给出的一个预期价，说target price是npv（现金价值），倒不如叫那位分析员不要写报告好吗？因为所有股价都是NPV。target price就是要预期未来，发电厂正要完成，就已经宣布要破产剩10亿。说多了都是累！我这篇文章不是写给喷子看的，而是写给有兴趣了解jaks然后实事求是的人看的。谢谢

Posted by leafwinner > 2020-05-14 21:41 | Report Abuse

做么有些人酱喜欢误导人？真的吃饱没事做？还是心理变态？有病记得看医生，没钱看医生可以去天桥底讲故，听众都不少的。
真的好过在这里废话连篇，误导人

Posted by leafwinner > 2020-05-14 21:43 | Report Abuse

Many thnaks to Shan Kee Tiow and Sifu DK66 for the clarification

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 21:46 | Report Abuse

leafwinner, you are welcome

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-14 21:54 | Report Abuse

2 simple questions before I say good night and go to bed

1. Can any sifu here kindly enlighten me with some solid facts , how accurate or reliable is IRR analysis to determine the net profit of a power plant ?

2. Relative Valuation and IRR analysis which is more reliable to forecast the net profit of a power plant project ? ( if you have an answer to help me , then please tell me. if you do not have an answer to help me , do not tell me a story ,full of so much unknown and uncertainties, nobody feel safe to accept)

please read my comment with a positive mind, i am not interested to judge whose theory is is right or wrong , I am more interest you to tell me, based on your logical thinking which theory , relative valuation or IRR analysis speak better for the first year , i repeat ,the first year result.

that is good enough for me and I know how to make my investing decision.

good night.
14/05/2020 9:44 PM

Posted by Shan Kee Tiow > 2020-05-14 21:55 | Report Abuse

DK66
不用客气，有人误导就要用人引导，不好看到有心的人被误入歧途

Posted by Antifakeguru > 2020-05-14 21:59 | Report Abuse

Be prepare for tomorrow crash again. Good luck

Posted by huahtai98 > 2020-05-14 22:07 | Report Abuse

@Shan Kee Tiow....我相信你讲的比较准确。
为您点赞。
Basically 30% share = 300m annual profit
40% share = 400m annual profit.
对吗?....bro.
Just my humble 2 cents.
Please correct me if I am wrong.
Thank you people.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 22:21 | Report Abuse

Dear ALL,

I have spent too much time on Jaks' forum. I need to take a rest. Leave your questions and I will come back to you later.

Thank you

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-14 22:23 | Report Abuse

if no borrowing , then don't need to calculate .

very funny .

can not understand ?

DK66

please help me .



Base on Equity IRR of 12% on which the 75% loan is taken care of by capacity payment:
Equity USD1870 X 0.25 = USD 467.5 million

ZERO = - 467.5 + A1/(1+0.12) +A2/(1+0.12)^2+……………till A25/(1+0.12)^25

USD 467.5= 7.8431A thus A= USD 59.606 million

Equity payback period of 467.5/59.606= 7.8 years

30% to JAKS = USD 59.606 x 0.3 = USD 17.882

Base on USD: MYR of 4.34: JAKS share of profit RM 17.882 x 4.34= RM 77.61 million.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 22:24 | Report Abuse

Aseng, if no borrowing, then Equity and project IRRs are the same

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-14 22:24 | Report Abuse

how about the 75% borrowing ?

doesn't generate any profit at all ?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 22:25 | Report Abuse

Aseng, I was just about to sign off. Any more question ?

Posted by hng33 > 2020-05-14 22:26 | Report Abuse

Dear DK66

I alrdy forward two article written by you and Ehome009 to seek pbb analyst comment and feedback.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 22:28 | Report Abuse

Aseng, depending on how you look at it. In simple language, Yes , you are right
--------------
how about the 75% borrowing ?

doesn't generate any profit at all ?

Posted by Ehome009 > 2020-05-14 22:29 | Report Abuse

Hng33,

Thank you. I am glad to exchange opinions with IB.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 22:30 | Report Abuse

Meaning, your borrowing and interest costs will be paid but only your own capital is used to calculate the profit return.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 22:30 | Report Abuse

Posted by huahtai98 > May 14, 2020 10:07 PM | Report Abuse

@Shan Kee Tiow....我相信你讲的比较准确。
为您点赞。
Basically 30% share = 300m annual profit
40% share = 400m annual profit.
对吗?....bro.
Just my humble 2 cents.
Please correct me if I am wrong.
Thank you people.
============

100% share profit $ 1 billion a year.........if u are right, then management of Jaks and PBB are both wrong........that is the crux of the matter. They have been too conservative.

If u think the plant can make $ 1 billion a year, then buy and keep, but don't drag others down with you..........because it is pure imagination.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 22:30 | Report Abuse

hng33, thank you for your effort
--------------
hng33 Dear DK66

I alrdy forward two article written by you and Ehome009 to seek pbb analyst comment and feedback.
14/05/2020 10:26 PM

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-14 22:31 | Report Abuse

based on their argument
if they borrow a little , the the net profit is very small

do you agree 77.6M is net profit ?

loan amount does not generate any profit at all ?

can not understand lah.....

死啦。。。。， 搞不明白今晚无法睡。。。。


Base on Equity IRR of 12% on which the 75% loan is taken care of by capacity payment:
Equity USD1870 X 0.25 = USD 467.5 million

ZERO = - 467.5 + A1/(1+0.12) +A2/(1+0.12)^2+……………till A25/(1+0.12)^25

USD 467.5= 7.8431A thus A= USD 59.606 million

Equity payback period of 467.5/59.606= 7.8 years

30% to JAKS = USD 59.606 x 0.3 = USD 17.882

Base on USD: MYR of 4.34: JAKS share of profit RM 17.882 x 4.34= RM 77.61 million.

Posted by paktua73 > 2020-05-14 22:33 | Report Abuse

take a rest dk66 paktua respect your hard work..
until late night still repy all feedback..
rest a bit..

tut tut
true fa sifu dk66..
willing to sacrifice his freedom..
for other sake..

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-14 22:33 | Report Abuse

where got such a thing ?

loan also can generate profit mah....

I understand their stupid calculation now

thank you



Posted by DK66 > May 14, 2020 10:30 PM | Report Abuse

Meaning, your borrowing and interest costs will be paid but only your own capital is used to calculate the profit return.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 22:35 | Report Abuse

Normally, the equity IRR are very high, like 30%, to compensate the risk on debt capital. 12% is not reasonable.

Posted by hng33 > 2020-05-14 22:36 | Report Abuse

I believe pbb analyst own feedback is utmost important instead of make so many assumption here. Hope to get reply soon, stay tune,

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 22:36 | Report Abuse

Under equity IRR, borrowings are assumed to only generate sufficient to cover interest costs.

Posted by Shan Kee Tiow > 2020-05-14 22:37 | Report Abuse

huahtai98
ehome009计算是对，我说的1020m是现金流不是profit，profit是1020m-（8.04b/25）= RM698,400,00
投资进去的8.04b要分25年来分摊，因为折旧的关系。8.04b就像买车先投入钱买全款，然后再每年平摊来计算，平均每年321.6m，你付全款了，所以第二年平摊费用321.6m你不用再付钱，但是总现金收入1020m有一部分是折旧费用和剩下的一部分是盈利，所以321.6m是现金可以拿去还车的贷款。

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 22:38 | Report Abuse

You layman rationale is most valuable !

------------------------
Aseng where got such a thing ?

loan also can generate profit mah....

I understand their stupid calculation now

thank you

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 22:39 | Report Abuse

Aseng, anymore question ?

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-14 22:39 | Report Abuse

Sslee,

Aseng have doubt on your logical thinking now.

reason:

we want total net profit lah....

not net profit from equity ?

very misleading lah....

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 22:39 | Report Abuse

Thank you
-----------------
hng33 I believe pbb analyst own feedback is utmost important instead of make so many assumption here. Hope to get reply soon, stay tune,

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-14 22:41 | Report Abuse

DK66,

am I right to say ,

RM 77.61 million is actual net profit calculated from equity
NOT the total net profit of the business operation

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 22:42 | Report Abuse

ed by DK66 > May 14, 2020 10:35 PM | Report Abuse

Normally, the equity IRR are very high, like 30%, to compensate the risk on debt capital. 12% is not reasonable.
=========

bottomline is this...........if u think the plant can generate $ 1 billion profits p.a. and management does not think so.....then , go and buy but don't drag others down the drain with u.........


the absence of institution money in Jaks suggest to me, no one with that kind money believes in your plant profits ( 100%) $ 1 billion profit p.a. pipe dream..........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-14 22:44 | Report Abuse

whole bunch of pipe dreamers..first there is OTB and now all these cult followers.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 22:46 | Report Abuse

qqq3, RM1b in free cash flow, not profit. Please get it right

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 22:48 | Report Abuse

I believe Sslee meant it to be total net profit. Better confirm with him
------------
Aseng DK66,

am I right to say ,

RM 77.61 million is actual net profit calculated from equity
NOT the total net profit of the business operation
14/05/2020 10:41 PM

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-05-14 22:48 | Report Abuse

Dream dream dream

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-14 22:50 | Report Abuse

DK66,

i got it.

Thank you



Posted by DK66 > May 14, 2020 10:36 PM | Report Abuse

Under equity IRR, borrowings are assumed to only generate sufficient to cover interest costs

Posted by makelittlemoney > 2020-05-14 22:51 | Report Abuse

scammer at here cheat ppl.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 22:51 | Report Abuse

Aseng, Vinh Tan 1 made 652m. 30% is 196m. You think Jaks can be so far off ?

Posted by makelittlemoney > 2020-05-14 22:52 | Report Abuse

whoever believe him, will get trapped.. Jaks is running out of CASH!!! if it is so good, why do the director run 1st?

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-14 22:53 | Report Abuse

Aseng, Vinh Tan 1 spent USD1.75b and JHDP spent USD1.87b but only generate less than half the profit. Resonable ?