Posted by cruger12345 > 2023-04-19 10:09 | Report Abuse

Dragon I have the pdf file o fhL bank research ... how to post it

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-04-19 10:25 | Report Abuse

Dragon, you can add me in i3 messenger and i will send to you. No able to copy and pass here.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-04-19 11:09 | Report Abuse

@ValueInvestor888, I have added you in i3 messenger

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-04-19 11:11 | Report Abuse

thanks ValueInvestor888 for the HL article

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-04-19 11:15 | Report Abuse

Hong Leong stated that YTLP management guided that the high electricity prices in Singapore would sustain for next 3-4 years, and current earnings of RM300 million per quarter to be sustainable. Management also guided that the minimum valuation for PowerSeraya will be SG$4.1 billion if it is to be listed in Singapore. That works out to be RM1.68 per share of YTLP. That is roughly inline with my earlier estimation of S$4.3b - 4.9 billion above.

Posted by arv18 > 2023-04-19 11:19 | Report Abuse

yes and much bull & crap the YTL management need to talk to boost the share price?

we all know how indebted this company is. is there even enough to pay bank interest and bondholders, who are senior to shareholders?

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-04-19 11:23 | Report Abuse

On Wessex Waters, YTLP management clarified that the recently secured water tariff hikes of 9% from April 2023 will be more than offset the higher cost pressure and index bond pricing impact, and earnings will normalise again in coming years. I hope with that Wessex' earnings will normalise back to RM500-600 million per year going forward.

Management also guided for a potential valuation of RM2.08 per share for Wessex, based on 1.4x RCV less outstanding debts. This is also inline with my earlier valuation of Wessex at 1.3x to 1.6x RCV. Note that the 3 listed water companies in the UK were trading at 1.3x to 1.55x RCV in 2022.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-04-19 11:26 | Report Abuse

On Attarat Power in Jordan, the management stated that both power units had already achieved commercial operations in March 2023, and guided that the project should generate 13%-14% project IRR. This is slightly better than my earlier projection.

The management was also confident that the ongoing arbitration case will not affect the existing PPA terms, this is comforting to know.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-04-19 11:28 | Report Abuse

On green data centre ventures, the management guided that the company had secured a total of 240MW worth of data centre jobs at the Kulai site which can house max 500MW capacity.

Details are a little lacking at the moment as to how much contribution this green data centre venture can potentially generate to YTLP.

That is the reason why most analysts have not factored in any contribution in their earnings projection and sum-of-parts valuation for YTLP.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-04-19 11:33 | Report Abuse

On the outlook, the management guided that the SEA-digital bank JV will start operations in 2024 by leveraging onto the large customers base of SEA-Shopee group, YTL Yes mobile subscribers and other YTL group customers.

Details are lacking at the moment, but I expect this to be a profitable venture.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-04-19 11:36 | Report Abuse

The article shows some info on the UK Brabazon property project. It is a 380-acre master-planned residential and commercial development in Bristol. The first phase was launched in 2020. It says Bristol remains amongst the most sought-after locations in England.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-04-19 11:39 | Report Abuse

Hong Leong projects a net profit of RM902 million for YTLP for FY2023, which is inline with my projection. Its projected net profit of RM1,128 million for FY2024 may seem a little on the low side but is already above concensus.

HL projected dividends of 6.0 sen for FY2023 and 8.0 sen for FY2024 are also above the rest. I hope YTLP can beat these projections.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-04-19 12:14 | Report Abuse

you are welcome dragon. Thanks for the highlight on YTLP. At current price, all shareholders who bought for past 1 year are making good profit. at 6% dividend in next few months with yield of around 6% for a growth stock like YTLP, where to find?

Investors starting to see and give valuation of YTLP as a growth stock...

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-04-19 13:33 | Report Abuse

Thanks dragon328 for the detail insight on HLS report, may I ask if I could have a copy as well? TIA

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-04-19 15:01 | Report Abuse

This means HLIB TP RM 1.50 has not factored in revenue from 500MW green data centre yet which will be realised in next 5 years + .... We will see profit to grow every year in next few years.
---------------------------
On green data centre ventures, the management guided that the company had secured a total of 240MW worth of data centre jobs at the Kulai site which can house max 500MW capacity.

Details are a little lacking at the moment as to how much contribution this green data centre venture can potentially generate to YTLP.



That is the reason why most analysts have not factored in any contribution in their earnings projection and sum-of-parts valuation for YTLP

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-04-19 15:24 | Report Abuse

@jeffchan1901, I sent the file to you already thru i3 messenger

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-04-19 16:10 | Report Abuse

@dragon 328, thanks bro

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-04-19 23:45 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/04/19/ytl-power-to-see-solid-earnings-in-fy23

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-04-20 16:22 | Report Abuse

higher highs, higher lows..

Posted by Ran271221 > 2023-04-20 16:32 | Report Abuse

Tahun ini ada angbau raya yg belum ditunaikan.

Posted by dompeilee > 2023-04-20 19:19 | Report Abuse

Today, the shares I started buying in 2016 finally, FINALLY cross into breakeven even including commissions...a little rueful that I increased my YTL holdings by such a big % last year but neglected to add a single share of YTLPowr from '20 until now...one of the unforseeable miscalculations...

Posted by kcwong98 > 2023-04-20 21:02 | Report Abuse

Dragon328
Will that be possible to post lastest HLIB report in i3. Thank you.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-04-21 12:19 | Report Abuse

kcwong98, the HLB report can be posted in i3 but it is difficult to include all the charts and tables. Better to share the pdf file with you.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-04-21 12:21 | Report Abuse

@kcwong98, I sent the file to you already in i3 messenger

Posted by kcwong98 > 2023-04-21 19:06 | Report Abuse

@dragon328
Thank you so much. Very informative research. Great to see forecast with EPS 14 sen, cash dividend 8 sen FYE June 2024

Posted by Zrenxy > 2023-04-24 22:32 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow limit up mahsing

Posted by dompeilee > 2023-04-26 14:42 | Report Abuse

Cheh...useless

Posted by Tibbers > 2023-05-03 10:01 | Report Abuse

up few cent before earning

Posted by tonywong8 > 2023-05-05 10:08 | Report Abuse

Malaysia and Singapore will be expected to face dry and high temperature weather for the next few months. The consumption of power expected to go higher. In the USEP report, the peak consumption has went up to 7300 Mwh and USEP($/Mwh) also went up high, profit margin will be good for next few quarters too.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-05 11:03 | Report Abuse

@tonywong8, you are right to point out the higher power consumption in Singapore will likely push up USEP. The peak demand went up to 7,300MW again, not too far away from the previous peak of 7,560MW in July 2021. I expect the peak demand will scale new highs in coming months as economy picks up speed amidst super hot weather.
This is significant as such peak demand must be met during the day even for just a short duration of 30 minutes. Singapore must prepare and have the back-up power generators ready to meet any such power surge during any time in the day on any day. If the peak power demand increases by 300MW from previously 7,000MW to 7,300MW, the power system will need to have at least 110% x 300MW = 330MW of additional power generation capacity in order to maintain a reserve margin of 10%. If the required reserve margin is 20%, then the required additional power generation will be 360MW.

This will ensure power demand to remain high and USEP to remain elevated over the next few quarters until a new generator comes on stream, expected in 1H 2026 the earliest when Keppel new plant may come online.

Posted by dompeilee > 2023-05-05 16:48 | Report Abuse

Mark my words...tho' epf (purposeful use of lower case letters coz they're investments are shrinking all the time) is selling indiscriminately, the chart has a 60% or better chance of forecasting a higher price within 3 mths...

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-05-06 08:40 | Report Abuse

UK economy shows signs of recovery despite inflation's drag
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britains-economy-grows-fastest-pace-year-pmi-2023-04-21/

英国经济有复苏的趋势。

马币兑英镑，1Q23，跌了不少。
马币兑新币，1Q23，也跌了一些。

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-10 11:07 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/ceomorningbrief/2023-05-10-story-h-271415877-Govt_Lifts_RE_Export_Ban_Details_Yet_to_be_Ironed_Out

This is good news which paves the way for YTLPower to participate in the export of RE power to Singapore in next 2-3 years

Posted by wahidul > 2023-05-10 13:41 | Report Abuse

very good news indeed

Posted by observatory > 2023-05-10 14:13 | Report Abuse

The lifting of RE export ban is the right move.
The earlier ban by the previous government in order to induce foreign investment is short-sighted. If Mayalsia with its abundance of cheap land does not want to sell solar powered energy to Singapore, it will only benefit Indonesia.
Of course, the greater availability of RE in Singapore means more green energy powered data centers can be built on Singapore soil. But I don't believe the tactic of grabbing business from Singapore by starving them of RE could work (Singapore can still buy RE from Batam).
Part of the profit from the RE export can be used to cross subsidize the domestic power sector. It also goes someway towards "compensating" the 3 sen per 1,000 gallon water deal, which in the past has been a sore point in bilateral relations. Malaysia through its hinterland can and should continue to supply water and electricity to the city state in a mutually beneficial way.

Posted by observatory > 2023-05-10 14:16 | Report Abuse

On the other hand, it's not very clear how the flipflop in commitment towards SWN may affect YES

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-10 14:34 | Report Abuse

Even if there will be more RE available in Singapore once their power import program kicks in some 2-3 years later, I do not expect this new RE import will enable more green data centres to be set up in Singapore in a big way for 2 reasons:
1) any RE power to be imported by Singapore will definitely be more expensive than RE produced in Malaysia, as there will be wheeling chargers to be imposed by Tenaga for power transmission and other charges to be imposed by Singapore side especially the EMA for network charges and wholesale market related charges. Furthermore, any RE exporter from Malaysia or Batam to Singapore will try to benchmark their RE power tariff at a small discount to the existing electricity tariff in Singapore which is about SGD300/MWh or about 99 sen/kWh to maximise profits. Even a discount of 30% will result in a RE import price of 70 sen/kWh which is still 100% higher than prevailing tariff in Malaysia
2) land is scarce in Singapore so any land required for setting up data centres in Singapore will be a lot more expensive than that in Malaysia

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-10 14:38 | Report Abuse

The switching from SWN to dual networks once DNS achieves 80% coverage is not expected to cause any significant impact to YES, as I do not expect the 2nd network provider will offer bandwidth rates much cheaper than the incumbent.

In any event, YES is not expected to make much contribution to YTL profit, I only hope for it to break even and stop bleeding once it can get about 1.2 to 1.5 million 5G subscribers

Posted by wahidul > 2023-05-10 17:49 | Report Abuse

MIDF reaffirms it’s BUY recommendation on YTLP

Posted by Yu_and_Mee > 2023-05-10 17:59 | Report Abuse

just 1 cent comment.
Once profit, just sell. This counter cannot hold long

Posted by observatory > 2023-05-10 18:14 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, good inputs on electricity tariff.
On 5G, it's unclear how DNB could become financially viable if government does not force major telcos to subscribe its wholesale service (and thereby spread the fixed cost).
Although details are still lacking, if CelcomDigi and Maxis are given the leeway to set up their second network, and they are allowed to only roll out 5G to profitable urban areas (instead of the entire county as demanded on DNB), these incumbents can enjoy lower 5G infrastructure cost by not shouldering the national duty to bring 5G to rural areas. Maybe their 5G cost will be even lower if Huawei offers them a sweet deal in order get into the Malaysian 5G market.
If DNB fails due to blunder by the government action, I'm afraid YES could be hurt as it's not only a customer but also a 20% equity owner of DNB.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-10 20:56 | Report Abuse

@observatory, the issues around DNB and the second network providers are very murky at the moment. If CelcomDigi is allowed to terminate their equity subscription to DNB, YTLPower may also be allowed to walk away from the deal if more details come out to make DNB a non-viable entity. Eventually DNB will be left with the government as the only shareholder with all private 5G providers joining the second network if it is cheaper with Huawei.

What you said is correct on the burden on DNB to cover 80% of areas including rural area. Naturally the second network provider will just focus on urban cities if given the choice. But I don't think the government is so stxpid in allowing that to happen. I expect the government to make sure an equal playing ground for DNB and the second network provider to ensure both can sustain as viable entities, otherwise it would defeat the purpose of allowing a second network in just to kill off DNB.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-10 21:02 | Report Abuse

@observatory, it may be time to relook at BJFood after its share price has corrected almost 30% from recent peak.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-11 08:56 | Report Abuse

TM is the latest to pull out from equity subscription to DNB, expect YTLP to follow.

Then the whole DNB proposition will fall off before it starts, and the government and DNB and industry players will need to come to the drawing board again.

Things will not move then

Posted by observatory > 2023-05-11 12:27 | Report Abuse

@dragon329, thanks for the heads-up.
Hope the government knows where it's heading by replacing SWN with DWN. Five years have passed since first PH government engaging telco players on 5G.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-11 13:59 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/05/11/new-re-policy-updates-a-boon-to-local-players

My positive view on YTLP benefiting from the RE export ban lift is shared by MIDF

Posted by Tibbers > 2023-05-11 16:44 | Report Abuse

:)

Posted by Apple888 > 2023-05-12 12:56 | Report Abuse

Epf keep selling...the price downward since 1.15
Any catalyst in near term?

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-12 15:01 | Report Abuse

There is no reason for EPF to continue selling as YTLP prospects are looking better and PM is urging EPF to raise proportion of local investments to 70% from 66%. That should shift about RM40 billion of investments to local markets and about RM24 billion to Bursa stock market.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-12 15:20 | Report Abuse

As for catalyst, there are plenty coming:
1) a potential higher interim dividend in upcoming 3Q result
2) continued strong earnings contribution from PowerSeraya
3) Maiden earnings contribution from Jordan power plant in Q3
4) higher earnings contribution from construction of green data centre at Kulai
5) potential clinching of more green data centre jobs
6) higher earnings from Wessex from Q4 after water tariff hikes
7) financial closing for the other 200MW of data centre jobs